c - usaid

48
1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001. We have devised a separate computer
prog ram for thi c purpose, because tho inputs are now different
from those used for the base year, and the outputs e r aLso
di fferent.
For every target yea r, the inputs are the following:­
aA N a t u r a L f o r t i Li t y p a t t a r n ( t h a r a me f o u r p a t t a r n s as u a a d
fo r 1981] ;
(b] Total popula cion in thu ta rget year (P ;
(C] Number of a l l woman (AWRA] as well as currently married
women (MW11A] in five-yearly age-g roups, starting from 15-19
and going up to 45-49 (to bo estimated on the assumption
that the percentage of cu rr nt ly married wo en to total
woman in egos 15-49 i slowly going down due to rising age
at marriage].
(d) TFR target and overa LL CPR or u needed to achieve that
target as estimated from the a gg regate model;
(e] Steri lity correction factor (s .
Theorotically, the overall stari lity correction factor
(1.00] haE been deri'ed from the age-speci fic factors on the
assumption a s.
that the underlying natural fertility
pattern
is
that suggested by Co ae a nd Trussall which ia pattern I in.
our model. Simi lar calculat ions made for patterns II to IV
in our model yield the overall valuesa s 1.09, 1.09 and
1.07. Since thes e values are fai rly close to the standard
value 1.08, we have not made any adjustment regarding this
for patterns II to IV.