c - usaid

46
ferti lity patterns II to IV which1
y io ld TFR eotimates close to TFA
ta rget.
Appendix tab las A.1 to A.4 summarize the main inputs as
we l l as tho main outputs for the base year 1981.
The prIma ry purpose of experimonting with different
fertility patterns is to s o whether thoir uao (along with other
inputs] provtdes a reacon ab le fit to Bangladerhi situation in
1981, end if so, which of those putts rns can be expected to yieLd
the most re liable resu Lts.
For this purpose, we compare below the
estimates of TFR end CBR given by the four patterns with the
cjmmonl y accepted values of these rates for 1981:-
Commonly accepted
Pattern I Pattern II Pattern III Pattern IV va ue
Estimate 6.42 6.38 6.41 6.50 6.3
of TFR
for 1981
C8R 43.68 42.83 42.83 44.21 42.8
We find that pattern II provides the best fit, cloeLy
followed by pattern III.
These patterns are modified variants of
the a tandard Coele-TrusselL formulation.
We need not take the view that patterns I and IV ara
unsuitable, since the commonly accepted values themselves might be
subject to a margin of error.
It seems advisable to carry on with all the four patterns
far each of the tnrgot years, namely 1986, 1991, 1996 and 2001.
However, before we do aso,
we would like to drew attention to
the base year value of the "total natural ferti lity rate" (TNFR