c - usaid
c - usaid c - usaid
141 which correspond to the ranges of parmi saib le values of R and K ir our raodeL. After giving theoretica L ueti fication for our basic formula (4.18] , we can now say that step 3 of this block consists in applying thi o formula to estimate age-specIfic CPR'I for each targot year. Correaponding to erch pattern of natural ferti t i ty, an R -K- D combination i s selected, through a a Lf-devi red computer program, so as to obtain estimates of TF and C 8R (as c loase as posibl[e to the ta rgetted or commonly accepted values], subject to the overall consistency condition, namely i that i= 4WRAi [t) x ui [ ti =MWRA(t] x u t]) ...... * (4.18) Step 4 Estimate births to women in each age-group by the formula B t HIYWRAi i [ t 1-a i . u i tt .o i t ] . C ai ( t "i. AS NF R it . (4 .20) The u (t) estimated in step 3 are used as inputs to step 4. Step 5 Estimate CBR, ASFR and TFR by means of the formulas 1000 CBR --- . 'Y 13 lo p . . . . . . (4.21] ASFR - i ..... (4.221 AWRA i TFR = 5 7- ASFRi ...... (4.23] Formula (4.22] shows that ASFR t) form part of t ie outputs in our model.
42 Finally, we con say that our formula (4.11] iB Go powerful that it can provide estinntos of ui (t that are needed to achieve (by mans o subsequont formuLas 4.20 to 4.23 F Imu Ltaneoos cLnsistancy with TFR and CB11 targots, provided of course that the targets themse Ivas a re r asanob lo. In fact, any value of TFRA and/or C B, which is not obtained within the stipulated range of values of R, K and D can o considored unrealistic. It goes without saying that only f asible valuac of TFR and CB can be simultaneously fitted to our model which ensures internal consistency by means of formula (4.19) . All this wi l be i Llustrated by applying the model to Bangladesh do e in section 5.
- Page 2 and 3: ~Ty~AD!DhkI Re fe rffc ce LibL1 t-,
- Page 4 and 5: 1. INTRODUCTION A dynamic rcLations
- Page 6 and 7: 5 rate, and there is no possibi Lit
- Page 8 and 9: 5 course, the inputs have to be sui
- Page 10 and 11: 7 Age-group 15-29 20-24 25-29 30
- Page 12 and 13: 9 Si mi larly, C varies From one ag
- Page 14 and 15: 11 This formula enables us to estim
- Page 16 and 17: n tura LLy temptes t0 fIx a low CBR
- Page 18 and 19: 15 mathematical space, then alL vaL
- Page 20 and 21: F iq]u.- r-e .3 1: -FFi . . a,-, -I
- Page 22 and 23: 18 possib le, and theoretically pre
- Page 24 and 25: 20 Extensive studies made by Coole,
- Page 26 and 27: 22 f3 Re lative values of age-speci
- Page 28 and 29: 24 Step-1 Use CPS-1901 to derive
- Page 30 and 31: 0.84, va Lues for ago-groups be Ir.
- Page 32 and 33: aving taken 1981 as tho bae year, w
- Page 34 and 35: 30 1 C (0) C (0) C [0) C (0] TFR(t)
- Page 36 and 37: 32 As regards the inputs () , the o
- Page 38 and 39: 34 would not be fulfi lLed. We can
- Page 40 and 41: .36 desirable. However, it is usefu
- Page 42 and 43: 38 we hnve chosen a function of thi
- Page 44 and 45: 40 At thi s stago, a graphical desc
- Page 48 and 49: 43 5. APPLICATIO1t TO BANGLADESH AN
- Page 50 and 51: 45 Corresponding to each pattern of
- Page 52 and 53: 47 for which the relevant formula i
- Page 54 and 55: J49 (f] Usa-effectiveness of cont r
- Page 56 and 57: 51 At this st ago it would be conve
- Page 58 and 59: 53 1986 1991 1996 2001 Total natura
- Page 60 and 61: 55 that a fulfi Lmant of the TFR ta
- Page 62 and 63: 57 Four patterns of natural fertili
- Page 64 and 65: 59 parameter K ha been introducod w
- Page 66 and 67: 61 roach 0.9. (vi) Age-specific con
- Page 68 and 69: 65 The main conclusions that we can
- Page 70 and 71: -r/\rps t- E
- Page 72 and 73: +4 Table A.2 Inputs(Natural fertili
- Page 74 and 75: Table A.4 Inputs(Natural fertility
- Page 76 and 77: Table A.6 Inputs(Natural fertility
- Page 78 and 79: Table A.8 Inputs(Natural fertility
- Page 80 and 81: Table A.10 Inputs(Natural fertility
- Page 82 and 83: Table A.12 lnputs(Natural fertility
- Page 84 and 85: Table A.14 Inputs(Natural {ertility
- Page 86 and 87: Table A.16 ]nputs(Natural fertility
- Page 88 and 89: Table A.18 Inputs(Natural fertility
- Page 90 and 91: Table A.20 Inputs(Natural fertility
- Page 92 and 93: ,A,.-:, FF7R . qe I:1..' Pafi. 'rr,
- Page 94 and 95: 4.5. - I tr-t. :_- -, rl '-: ':1i
141<br />
which correspond to the ranges of parmi saib le values of R and K ir<br />
our raodeL.<br />
After giving theoretica L ueti fication for our basic<br />
formula (4.18] , we can now say that step 3 of this block consists<br />
in<br />
applying thi o formula to estimate age-specIfic CPR'I for each<br />
targot year.<br />
Correaponding to erch pattern of natural ferti t i ty,<br />
an R -K- D combination i s selected, through a a Lf-devi red computer<br />
program, so as to obtain estimates of TF and C 8R (as c loase as<br />
posibl[e to the ta rgetted or commonly accepted values], subject<br />
to<br />
the overall consistency condition, namely<br />
i<br />
that<br />
i= 4WRAi [t) x ui [ ti =MWRA(t] x u t]) ...... * (4.18)<br />
Step 4<br />
Estimate births to women in each age-group by the formula<br />
B t HIYWRAi i [ t 1-a i . u i tt .o i t ] . C ai ( t "i. AS NF R it . (4 .20)<br />
The u (t) estimated in step 3 are used as inputs to step 4.<br />
Step 5<br />
Estimate CBR, ASFR and TFR by means of the formulas<br />
1000<br />
CBR --- . 'Y 13<br />
lo<br />
p<br />
. . . . . . (4.21]<br />
ASFR - i ..... (4.221<br />
AWRA i<br />
TFR = 5 7- ASFRi ...... (4.23]<br />
Formula (4.22] shows that ASFR t) form part of t ie outputs<br />
in our model.
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