c - usaid
c - usaid c - usaid
aving taken 1981 as tho bae year, we rhall conaider fou r different targat years, n ma ly, 198G, 1981, 196, and 20 1 . Assumption regarding C : According to the 1981 population m cen&us, currently mazrried woman constituted 04% of a Ll women in the age-g roup 15-49. This moans C for 1981 w a e lual to 0 .840. a A common assumption foroang t nd3sh is that tho average age at marriage is gradual ly increusing. Tharefore the value of C can m be a ssumed to decreasa by 0.005 aftor every five years, as shown ba low:- Year Assumed vaLua of C ---------------- m ----------------------- 1981 0 840 (given by consus] 1986 0.835 1991 0.830 1996 0 825 2001 0.820 Assumption regarding C a The Population Council's formula a for estimating the index of i naducad abortion is TFR C = TFR ... (4.7] + 0.4 x (1 + overall CPR] x Total induced abortion rato This formula for C needs prior knowledge of overa L L CPR, but tne a formula for CPR also needs prior knowledge of C . To bypass tha a circularity problem, thu overall CPR can be C (t) approximately calculated by assumi ng that------- = I This iG justified C (0] because chargas in CPR in Banglada h are Linked primarily with changes in TFR, and C a has no major role.
Total induced abortion rate can be assumed to be 0.2 fo each of the four target year . This implies the following:- Year TFR target Assumed value of C 8 1986 5.6 0.9810 1991 4.8 0.9772 1996 4.2 0.9725 2001 3.6 0.9664 Assumption regarding C : The Population CounciL's fnrmuI a for estimating the index of postpartum i,ifecundabi lity is 20 C- ------------------------------------------------------- (4.8) 18.5 + Duration in months of postpartum infecundabi Lity However, there are no reliable end consistent data on breast-feeding in Bangladesh. The following assumptions about C i help in avoiding serious problems of inconsistency:- Year Assumee value of C 1986 0.6237 1991 0.6315 1996 0.6450 2001 0.6559 Step 2 Estimate the o vera LL CPR needed to achieve the TFR target. The relevant formula is
- Page 2 and 3: ~Ty~AD!DhkI Re fe rffc ce LibL1 t-,
- Page 4 and 5: 1. INTRODUCTION A dynamic rcLations
- Page 6 and 7: 5 rate, and there is no possibi Lit
- Page 8 and 9: 5 course, the inputs have to be sui
- Page 10 and 11: 7 Age-group 15-29 20-24 25-29 30
- Page 12 and 13: 9 Si mi larly, C varies From one ag
- Page 14 and 15: 11 This formula enables us to estim
- Page 16 and 17: n tura LLy temptes t0 fIx a low CBR
- Page 18 and 19: 15 mathematical space, then alL vaL
- Page 20 and 21: F iq]u.- r-e .3 1: -FFi . . a,-, -I
- Page 22 and 23: 18 possib le, and theoretically pre
- Page 24 and 25: 20 Extensive studies made by Coole,
- Page 26 and 27: 22 f3 Re lative values of age-speci
- Page 28 and 29: 24 Step-1 Use CPS-1901 to derive
- Page 30 and 31: 0.84, va Lues for ago-groups be Ir.
- Page 34 and 35: 30 1 C (0) C (0) C [0) C (0] TFR(t)
- Page 36 and 37: 32 As regards the inputs () , the o
- Page 38 and 39: 34 would not be fulfi lLed. We can
- Page 40 and 41: .36 desirable. However, it is usefu
- Page 42 and 43: 38 we hnve chosen a function of thi
- Page 44 and 45: 40 At thi s stago, a graphical desc
- Page 46 and 47: 141 which correspond to the ranges
- Page 48 and 49: 43 5. APPLICATIO1t TO BANGLADESH AN
- Page 50 and 51: 45 Corresponding to each pattern of
- Page 52 and 53: 47 for which the relevant formula i
- Page 54 and 55: J49 (f] Usa-effectiveness of cont r
- Page 56 and 57: 51 At this st ago it would be conve
- Page 58 and 59: 53 1986 1991 1996 2001 Total natura
- Page 60 and 61: 55 that a fulfi Lmant of the TFR ta
- Page 62 and 63: 57 Four patterns of natural fertili
- Page 64 and 65: 59 parameter K ha been introducod w
- Page 66 and 67: 61 roach 0.9. (vi) Age-specific con
- Page 68 and 69: 65 The main conclusions that we can
- Page 70 and 71: -r/\rps t- E
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- Page 76 and 77: Table A.6 Inputs(Natural fertility
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- Page 80 and 81: Table A.10 Inputs(Natural fertility
Total induced abortion rate can be assumed to be 0.2 fo<br />
each of the four target year .<br />
This implies the following:-<br />
Year TFR target Assumed value of C 8<br />
1986 5.6 0.9810<br />
1991 4.8 0.9772<br />
1996 4.2 0.9725<br />
2001 3.6 0.9664<br />
Assumption regarding C : The Population CounciL's fnrmuI a<br />
for estimating the index of postpartum i,ifecundabi lity is<br />
20<br />
C- ------------------------------------------------------- (4.8)<br />
18.5 + Duration in months of postpartum infecundabi Lity<br />
However, there are no reliable end consistent data on<br />
breast-feeding in Bangladesh.<br />
The following assumptions about C i help in avoiding serious<br />
problems of inconsistency:-<br />
Year<br />
Assumee value of C<br />
1986 0.6237<br />
1991 0.6315<br />
1996 0.6450<br />
2001 0.6559<br />
Step 2<br />
Estimate the o vera LL CPR needed to achieve the TFR target.<br />
The relevant formula is
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