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0.84, va Lues for ago-groups be Ir.w 30 may be taken to be 0.83, whilo those above 30 may ba assumed to be 0.8475. c a age-specific ir dox of induced abortion. Since the overall index = 0.9849, valuas for the younger ages can be assumed to start from 0.97, rising slowly wi th age and going up to one. B i ASFR i =-for each age group .... (4.4] AWRlA 1000 COR =------- " . (4B5 P TFR = 5 _ ASFR . . . . .(4 .6 ) Based on experimentation, select those sets of relative vaLues of age-speci fic natural fertility rates which yield CBR close to the commonly accepted value of 42.[1, and TFR close to tha commonly accepted value of 6.3. The results can be summarized in the following form:
27 R1elI )t i ve v aLu ----------------------------------------------------------------- e s o f naotu ra L fe r t i Lity ccc or d ing t0 o a .9roaup 15-19 Pattern I Pattern II Pattern III Pattern IV ---------------------- ---------- ----------- ---------- 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-49 40-44 45-49 E st . of TFR CBfl ------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Specific data and estimates wi Ll be presented in section 5. 4.2 Target year aggregate modelling block --------------------------------------- The 3LJpctive of thii block is to apply the Population Counci l' aggregate fertiLity model for the targot year, and to estimate the overall CPn noded to achieve the TFR target. With the helr of the overall CPR, the total number of noncontrucieptors equivaLent (adjusted far sterility and other factors] can be estimated. These wi LL prove to be uaaft, L inputs for the target year age-specific sat-estimation block. Step I Make assumptions for the ovde.lI values of C , C and C for m a i the target year which take into a c ount likely changes between the base year and the target year.
Page 2 and 3: ~Ty~AD!DhkI Re fe rffc ce LibL1 t-,
Page 4 and 5: 1. INTRODUCTION A dynamic rcLations
Page 6 and 7: 5 rate, and there is no possibi Lit
Page 8 and 9: 5 course, the inputs have to be sui
Page 10 and 11: 7 Age-group 15-29 20-24 25-29 30
Page 12 and 13: 9 Si mi larly, C varies From one ag
Page 14 and 15: 11 This formula enables us to estim
Page 16 and 17: n tura LLy temptes t0 fIx a low CBR
Page 18 and 19: 15 mathematical space, then alL vaL
Page 20 and 21: F iq]u.- r-e .3 1: -FFi . . a,-, -I
Page 22 and 23: 18 possib le, and theoretically pre
Page 24 and 25: 20 Extensive studies made by Coole,
Page 26 and 27: 22 f3 Re lative values of age-speci
Page 28 and 29: 24 Step-1 Use CPS-1901 to derive
Page 32 and 33: aving taken 1981 as tho bae year, w
Page 34 and 35: 30 1 C (0) C (0) C [0) C (0] TFR(t)
Page 36 and 37: 32 As regards the inputs () , the o
Page 38 and 39: 34 would not be fulfi lLed. We can
Page 40 and 41: .36 desirable. However, it is usefu
Page 42 and 43: 38 we hnve chosen a function of thi
Page 44 and 45: 40 At thi s stago, a graphical desc
Page 46 and 47: 141 which correspond to the ranges
Page 48 and 49: 43 5. APPLICATIO1t TO BANGLADESH AN
Page 50 and 51: 45 Corresponding to each pattern of
Page 52 and 53: 47 for which the relevant formula i
Page 54 and 55: J49 (f] Usa-effectiveness of cont r
Page 56 and 57: 51 At this st ago it would be conve
Page 58 and 59: 53 1986 1991 1996 2001 Total natura
Page 60 and 61: 55 that a fulfi Lmant of the TFR ta
Page 62 and 63: 57 Four patterns of natural fertili
Page 64 and 65: 59 parameter K ha been introducod w
Page 66 and 67: 61 roach 0.9. (vi) Age-specific con
Page 68 and 69: 65 The main conclusions that we can
Page 70 and 71: -r/\rps t- E
Page 72 and 73: +4 Table A.2 Inputs(Natural fertili
Page 74 and 75: Table A.4 Inputs(Natural fertility
Page 80 and 81:
Table A.10 Inputs(Natural fertility
Page 82 and 83:
Table A.12 lnputs(Natural fertility
Page 84 and 85:
Table A.14 Inputs(Natural {ertility
Page 86 and 87:
Table A.16 ]nputs(Natural fertility
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
,A,.-:, FF7R . qe I:1..' Pafi. 'rr,
Page 94 and 95:
4.5. - I tr-t. :_- -, rl '-: ':1i
Page 96:
10. Join, A. K. and J. B ongaarts,
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