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~Ty~AD!DhkI Re fe rffc ce LibL1 t-, .Bcx FOREWOID I am pleased to introduce this research monograph which prasents a modified version of the Population Counci L's ferti lity modal, with special reference to 1anglade ch. The subject is obviously of much importance to this country. Nishkam Agerwal is a staff member of USAID/Bang tadesh Mission, and ha has conducted this study as a parsonal contribution, in add i tion to his project assignment, in association with two freelance reearchars. The views expressed are the author's own, and not ncaePseari Ly of the USAID/BangLadash. However, I P.nt to encouraga this type of epplied research through wh4 ch staff momberE can present new ideas, to initiate discussion on possibilities of finding new solutions to deveLopmental problems of thi ; country. ?/ohn R. We tLay Director,US11 1 thaeke
A MODIFIED VERSION OF THE POPULATION COUNCIL'S FERTILITY MODEL WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO BANGLADESH 1 Introduction ...... * ......................... 2. A Brief Description of the Population Council's Fertility Model ............. ................... . 6 3. Unsatisfactory elements of tha modal from the viewpoint of users in Bangladesh ................. 12 4. A modified version of the Fertility Model ...............21 5. Application to Bang Loderh and now results obtained .... 43 B. Conclusion ............................................54 Appendix Tables
Page 4 and 5: 1. INTRODUCTION A dynamic rcLations
Page 6 and 7: 5 rate, and there is no possibi Lit
Page 8 and 9: 5 course, the inputs have to be sui
Page 10 and 11: 7 Age-group 15-29 20-24 25-29 30
Page 12 and 13: 9 Si mi larly, C varies From one ag
Page 14 and 15: 11 This formula enables us to estim
Page 16 and 17: n tura LLy temptes t0 fIx a low CBR
Page 18 and 19: 15 mathematical space, then alL vaL
Page 20 and 21: F iq]u.- r-e .3 1: -FFi . . a,-, -I
Page 22 and 23: 18 possib le, and theoretically pre
Page 24 and 25: 20 Extensive studies made by Coole,
Page 26 and 27: 22 f3 Re lative values of age-speci
Page 28 and 29: 24 Step-1 Use CPS-1901 to derive
Page 30 and 31: 0.84, va Lues for ago-groups be Ir.
Page 32 and 33: aving taken 1981 as tho bae year, w
Page 34 and 35: 30 1 C (0) C (0) C [0) C (0] TFR(t)
Page 36 and 37: 32 As regards the inputs () , the o
Page 38 and 39: 34 would not be fulfi lLed. We can
Page 40 and 41: .36 desirable. However, it is usefu
Page 42 and 43: 38 we hnve chosen a function of thi
Page 44 and 45: 40 At thi s stago, a graphical desc
Page 46 and 47: 141 which correspond to the ranges
Page 48 and 49: 43 5. APPLICATIO1t TO BANGLADESH AN
Page 50 and 51: 45 Corresponding to each pattern of
Page 52 and 53:
47 for which the relevant formula i
Page 54 and 55:
J49 (f] Usa-effectiveness of cont r
Page 56 and 57:
51 At this st ago it would be conve
Page 58 and 59:
53 1986 1991 1996 2001 Total natura
Page 60 and 61:
55 that a fulfi Lmant of the TFR ta
Page 62 and 63:
57 Four patterns of natural fertili
Page 64 and 65:
59 parameter K ha been introducod w
Page 66 and 67:
61 roach 0.9. (vi) Age-specific con
Page 68 and 69:
65 The main conclusions that we can
Page 70 and 71:
-r/\rps t- E
Page 72 and 73:
+4 Table A.2 Inputs(Natural fertili
Page 74 and 75:
Table A.4 Inputs(Natural fertility
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Page 80 and 81:
Page 82 and 83:
Table A.12 lnputs(Natural fertility
Page 84 and 85:
Table A.14 Inputs(Natural {ertility
Page 86 and 87:
Table A.16 ]nputs(Natural fertility
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
,A,.-:, FF7R . qe I:1..' Pafi. 'rr,
Page 94 and 95:
4.5. - I tr-t. :_- -, rl '-: ':1i
Page 96:
10. Join, A. K. and J. B ongaarts,
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