c - usaid

23
contraceptive methods.
Both those cannot be fulfi lLed at
the some time. We have choson the latter in this
m 0 nlog r a p h.
A key question i , how accurate are the estimates of agetpeci
fic CP P's as welL as of overall CPR as given by the 19BI
contraceptive prevalence survoy ? We can only say that, after
some ndj urtments (which we shall indicate) , the re uI ts of CPS-O1
vre bel i ved to bo fai rly accurato, and that they do not
signi ficurt1 ly deiviate from trend based vaLues as provided by
simi Lar t;urvoy s for recent yea rs. However, our model is not
rigidly tied to any particular set of values. If the CPS 1985-8G
shows a di fferent pattern, then thu same type of expe rimentation
can be performed for 1985-88 as we have done for 1981. But our
model does need bench-m r'k data and estimates for a base year
which satisfy internaL consistency checks and provide ets of
relative values of age-speci fic natural fertility rates.
Another obvious question is, why not accept relative values
suggested by CoaLe and Trussel l for developing countries in
general ? Vie feel we shou ld start with these values, but need
net blindly accept any international pattern unless it has been
tested forr va lidi ty for Baing ladesh. This country is large enough
to ju sti fy a search for a national pattorn which may or may not be
si mi L ar to an internatinona L pattern. Therefore, we have
experimented with the Coo Le-Trussol L pattern as we [ L as other
pa'tterms.
Having c lari fied the underLying purpose of the base year
con i stcncy-coarching block, we now give a step by step account
thereof.