c - usaid
c - usaid c - usaid
22 f3 Re lative values of age-speci fic natural ferti lity rates. The year 181 iE takon a s the base year because the as as a contracnptive prevalence population census well survey (uPS-81 3 was conducted in that your. Bench-mark date end estimates for items (a] and c) are providod by these two sources. Estimates for i tms (d] and (e) , that have bean made a r 1081 by di fferent organ isations, aLi within a narrow range, and have thus receivod wide acceptanco. The situation about i tems (b) and (f) is not so clear. We have therefore experimented with different sets of values of (f) , ( e as provided by the abovewhich, along with () , (c) , (d) and mert ioned s ou rce , yield estimates of (b) . Once we have found ( f] which, together with [a] to e] broadly sati ,fy conditions of internal cana istency for 1981, the same ( f can ba u sad as an input for making projections for subsequent years. While making consistency checks, we have to be prepared to a Llow for a r easonable margin of error, because cannot be expected d oi.ographic dat and eastimates in Bangladesh to be error free. Also, we have to choose between two poasible checks of cons istency, namely overall e CPH and unweighted average of age-speci fic CPB's, 1/7 1U . Bongarts and Potter i.e. wheth, r u i s equal to i (1983) have suggested this. (ii overall CPR and weighted average of age-specific CPR's, [ WRA) . (u] is equal to _ (HWRA 3. (ui). This i.e. whether i i ca nr bea c a LLed coansGi s ten cy i n reag a rd to ~u s r s ef
23 contraceptive methods. Both those cannot be fulfi lLed at the some time. We have choson the latter in this m 0 nlog r a p h. A key question i , how accurate are the estimates of agetpeci fic CP P's as welL as of overall CPR as given by the 19BI contraceptive prevalence survoy ? We can only say that, after some ndj urtments (which we shall indicate) , the re uI ts of CPS-O1 vre bel i ved to bo fai rly accurato, and that they do not signi ficurt1 ly deiviate from trend based vaLues as provided by simi Lar t;urvoy s for recent yea rs. However, our model is not rigidly tied to any particular set of values. If the CPS 1985-8G shows a di fferent pattern, then thu same type of expe rimentation can be performed for 1985-88 as we have done for 1981. But our model does need bench-m r'k data and estimates for a base year which satisfy internaL consistency checks and provide ets of relative values of age-speci fic natural fertility rates. Another obvious question is, why not accept relative values suggested by CoaLe and Trussel l for developing countries in general ? Vie feel we shou ld start with these values, but need net blindly accept any international pattern unless it has been tested forr va lidi ty for Baing ladesh. This country is large enough to ju sti fy a search for a national pattorn which may or may not be si mi L ar to an internatinona L pattern. Therefore, we have experimented with the Coo Le-Trussol L pattern as we [ L as other pa'tterms. Having c lari fied the underLying purpose of the base year con i stcncy-coarching block, we now give a step by step account thereof.
- Page 2 and 3: ~Ty~AD!DhkI Re fe rffc ce LibL1 t-,
- Page 4 and 5: 1. INTRODUCTION A dynamic rcLations
- Page 6 and 7: 5 rate, and there is no possibi Lit
- Page 8 and 9: 5 course, the inputs have to be sui
- Page 10 and 11: 7 Age-group 15-29 20-24 25-29 30
- Page 12 and 13: 9 Si mi larly, C varies From one ag
- Page 14 and 15: 11 This formula enables us to estim
- Page 16 and 17: n tura LLy temptes t0 fIx a low CBR
- Page 18 and 19: 15 mathematical space, then alL vaL
- Page 20 and 21: F iq]u.- r-e .3 1: -FFi . . a,-, -I
- Page 22 and 23: 18 possib le, and theoretically pre
- Page 24 and 25: 20 Extensive studies made by Coole,
- Page 28 and 29: 24 Step-1 Use CPS-1901 to derive
- Page 30 and 31: 0.84, va Lues for ago-groups be Ir.
- Page 32 and 33: aving taken 1981 as tho bae year, w
- Page 34 and 35: 30 1 C (0) C (0) C [0) C (0] TFR(t)
- Page 36 and 37: 32 As regards the inputs () , the o
- Page 38 and 39: 34 would not be fulfi lLed. We can
- Page 40 and 41: .36 desirable. However, it is usefu
- Page 42 and 43: 38 we hnve chosen a function of thi
- Page 44 and 45: 40 At thi s stago, a graphical desc
- Page 46 and 47: 141 which correspond to the ranges
- Page 48 and 49: 43 5. APPLICATIO1t TO BANGLADESH AN
- Page 50 and 51: 45 Corresponding to each pattern of
- Page 52 and 53: 47 for which the relevant formula i
- Page 54 and 55: J49 (f] Usa-effectiveness of cont r
- Page 56 and 57: 51 At this st ago it would be conve
- Page 58 and 59: 53 1986 1991 1996 2001 Total natura
- Page 60 and 61: 55 that a fulfi Lmant of the TFR ta
- Page 62 and 63: 57 Four patterns of natural fertili
- Page 64 and 65: 59 parameter K ha been introducod w
- Page 66 and 67: 61 roach 0.9. (vi) Age-specific con
- Page 68 and 69: 65 The main conclusions that we can
- Page 70 and 71: -r/\rps t- E
- Page 72 and 73: +4 Table A.2 Inputs(Natural fertili
- Page 74 and 75: Table A.4 Inputs(Natural fertility
22<br />
f3<br />
Re lative values of age-speci fic natural ferti lity<br />
rates.<br />
The year 181 iE takon a s the base year because the<br />
as as a contracnptive prevalence<br />
population census well<br />
survey<br />
(uPS-81 3 was conducted in that your. Bench-mark date end<br />
estimates<br />
for items<br />
(a] and c) are providod by these<br />
two<br />
sources.<br />
Estimates for i tms (d] and<br />
(e) , that have bean made a r<br />
1081 by di fferent organ isations, aLi within a narrow range, and<br />
have thus receivod wide acceptanco.<br />
The situation about i tems (b) and (f) is not so clear. We<br />
have<br />
therefore experimented with different<br />
sets of values of (f) ,<br />
( e as provided by the abovewhich,<br />
along with () , (c) , (d) and <br />
mert ioned s ou rce , yield estimates of (b) .<br />
Once we have found ( f] which, together with [a] to e]<br />
broadly sati ,fy conditions of internal cana istency for 1981, the<br />
same ( f can ba u sad as<br />
an input for making projections for<br />
subsequent<br />
years.<br />
While making consistency checks, we have to be<br />
prepared to a Llow<br />
for a r easonable margin<br />
of error, because<br />
cannot be expected<br />
d oi.ographic dat and eastimates in Bangladesh to<br />
be error free. Also, we have to<br />
choose<br />
between two<br />
poasible<br />
checks of cons istency, namely<br />
overall e CPH and unweighted average of age-speci fic CPB's,<br />
1/7 1U . Bongarts and Potter<br />
i.e. wheth, r u i s equal to i<br />
(1983) have suggested this.<br />
(ii overall CPR and weighted average of age-specific CPR's,<br />
[ WRA) . (u] is equal to _ (HWRA 3. (ui). This<br />
i.e. whether<br />
i i<br />
ca nr bea c a LLed coansGi s ten cy i n reag a rd to ~u s r s ef
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