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18 possib le, and theoretically preferable, to think of other ways, because an age-specific vorsion offers plenty of scnpo to introduce methodological sophisticati on as wel 1 as L i nkag e between TFRA and CPA (which i s not possib Le in an aggregate modelj. Our specific comment is t hat the simple procedure of considering ASF R[ t] as E n input shouLd be repLaced by a more complicated procedure which is j us ti fied by i ts capability to yield batter resu Lts. sf coursu, the revi sed procedure wi tl have to be viewed as a sequence of steps. Let us consider the possibi lity of introducing simultoneous and inte r-dependent changes over time in ASFR as welL as in age-specific CP A such that the ratio I - ASFFn( t) s.u(tja(t) . . . . . . [3 . 5] takes values which can bu predicted, s being the age-specific sterility correction factor, u is the age-specific CPR and a is the age-speci fic use-e ffectiveness of the contraceptive methods. In the terminology arid notation of the Population Council's model, the ratio (3.5) represents A S F Ii( t, a) C (t,a] C -I -- referring to age-group and it can be assumed to take the value ASFRI (0,a) C (t,a] C (t,o) C (tie] m a i C (O. C (o,a C (oa C (oae c m a i
where C m iG the index of marriage, C is the index of 0 induced abortion, C is the index of postpartum infecundabi L Ity, and a Ll terms containing (o) refer to the b s year whosu values can be asrumed to be known. That leaver three terms re fe rri ng to the target year, namely C m C end C Of these, C. cnin be assumed to be age-i nvari ant, a i i but C end C very with age. Therefore, anothor m a rat i o namely ASFII t,e ) 1- 6 a I).U[ t ,a)I . ( t , )I .C [(t, a)I. C [(t ,o) S a is pre fereb Le to rat io (3.5] from the viewpoint of identifying a re lat ive ly more stab le input that can take the place of ASFR (t) . This ratio can be a ssumed to take the value ASFR(O, ) C (t) --------------------------------------- C(o,a]).0 ------ fO,o) .C (o,a] C to] c m a i which iG a slowly inc rcasIng function of t as already mentioned in cection 2. VIe can cat l the ratio (3.7) as the age-specific natural ferti Li ty rate.
Page 2 and 3: ~Ty~AD!DhkI Re fe rffc ce LibL1 t-,
Page 4 and 5: 1. INTRODUCTION A dynamic rcLations
Page 6 and 7: 5 rate, and there is no possibi Lit
Page 8 and 9: 5 course, the inputs have to be sui
Page 10 and 11: 7 Age-group 15-29 20-24 25-29 30
Page 12 and 13: 9 Si mi larly, C varies From one ag
Page 14 and 15: 11 This formula enables us to estim
Page 16 and 17: n tura LLy temptes t0 fIx a low CBR
Page 18 and 19: 15 mathematical space, then alL vaL
Page 20 and 21: F iq]u.- r-e .3 1: -FFi . . a,-, -I
Page 24 and 25: 20 Extensive studies made by Coole,
Page 26 and 27: 22 f3 Re lative values of age-speci
Page 28 and 29: 24 Step-1 Use CPS-1901 to derive
Page 30 and 31: 0.84, va Lues for ago-groups be Ir.
Page 32 and 33: aving taken 1981 as tho bae year, w
Page 34 and 35: 30 1 C (0) C (0) C [0) C (0] TFR(t)
Page 36 and 37: 32 As regards the inputs () , the o
Page 38 and 39: 34 would not be fulfi lLed. We can
Page 40 and 41: .36 desirable. However, it is usefu
Page 42 and 43: 38 we hnve chosen a function of thi
Page 44 and 45: 40 At thi s stago, a graphical desc
Page 46 and 47: 141 which correspond to the ranges
Page 48 and 49: 43 5. APPLICATIO1t TO BANGLADESH AN
Page 50 and 51: 45 Corresponding to each pattern of
Page 52 and 53: 47 for which the relevant formula i
Page 54 and 55: J49 (f] Usa-effectiveness of cont r
Page 56 and 57: 51 At this st ago it would be conve
Page 58 and 59: 53 1986 1991 1996 2001 Total natura
Page 60 and 61: 55 that a fulfi Lmant of the TFR ta
Page 62 and 63: 57 Four patterns of natural fertili
Page 64 and 65: 59 parameter K ha been introducod w
Page 66 and 67: 61 roach 0.9. (vi) Age-specific con
Page 68 and 69: 65 The main conclusions that we can
Page 70 and 71: -r/\rps t- E
Page 72 and 73:
+4 Table A.2 Inputs(Natural fertili
Page 74 and 75:
Table A.4 Inputs(Natural fertility
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Page 80 and 81:
Page 82 and 83:
Table A.12 lnputs(Natural fertility
Page 84 and 85:
Table A.14 Inputs(Natural {ertility
Page 86 and 87:
Table A.16 ]nputs(Natural fertility
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
,A,.-:, FF7R . qe I:1..' Pafi. 'rr,
Page 94 and 95:
4.5. - I tr-t. :_- -, rl '-: ':1i
Page 96:
10. Join, A. K. and J. B ongaarts,
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