c - usaid

More documents

Recommendations

Info

F iq]u.- r-e .3 1: -FFi . . a,-, -I',..,.-: B K a::qet. ...-r-q r -s - -- i-, .i..-R , F.. .... 2.: 1"2 11 TOT --L tar%4 I C~ .~p iu... -...... = B4
17 In the light of trend-based. and other projactios, there is high probobi ti ty that "ha point (B1,02 1n figure 3. I iay be on the se9ment marked CT on tho TFR-targot Line (or in an area adjacont to it]. More datai Ls rolating to this wi l be provided [ i n r,ection 5] in connection with tho modified version of the Popu lat io n Counci ' s modeL. The main purpose of referring to this aspect at this stage is to hig1hlight the need for a clear Linkage, within t he modeL, between tha to rgetted or enti ated values of TFR and CUR, and this mus t involve also the third important factor, name ly CP 1. Use of ASFR as an input -- - - ---------------- Another deficiancy of the Population Counci L's model is that it considers th age-specific ferti lity rates of the target year, i . e. ASFR[ t) as an itnput. In other words, we are supposed to know in advance what the oven ASFR' s wilL be in the target year. Those and other inputs will then help in estimating, through the model, the required rates of contraceptive prevalence in the various age-groups. One can app rtciate why ASFR( t) has been considered as an input in the modeL. This is because the ego-specific version ef the model is vieved as a simple ex tansiion of the aggregate model. In t1e aggregate model, TFl ( t) is an input and CPR(tI is an output. y a simple analogy, TFR (t i replaced by ASFR(t) in the age-speci fic mcd L. However, this iS only one of the ways of movin g from an aggreugate to an age-specific version. It itS
Page 2 and 3: ~Ty~AD!DhkI Re fe rffc ce LibL1 t-,
Page 4 and 5: 1. INTRODUCTION A dynamic rcLations
Page 6 and 7: 5 rate, and there is no possibi Lit
Page 8 and 9: 5 course, the inputs have to be sui
Page 10 and 11: 7 Age-group 15-29 20-24 25-29 30
Page 12 and 13: 9 Si mi larly, C varies From one ag
Page 14 and 15: 11 This formula enables us to estim
Page 16 and 17: n tura LLy temptes t0 fIx a low CBR
Page 18 and 19: 15 mathematical space, then alL vaL
Page 22 and 23: 18 possib le, and theoretically pre
Page 24 and 25: 20 Extensive studies made by Coole,
Page 26 and 27: 22 f3 Re lative values of age-speci
Page 28 and 29: 24 Step-1 Use CPS-1901 to derive
Page 30 and 31: 0.84, va Lues for ago-groups be Ir.
Page 32 and 33: aving taken 1981 as tho bae year, w
Page 34 and 35: 30 1 C (0) C (0) C [0) C (0] TFR(t)
Page 36 and 37: 32 As regards the inputs () , the o
Page 38 and 39: 34 would not be fulfi lLed. We can
Page 40 and 41: .36 desirable. However, it is usefu
Page 42 and 43: 38 we hnve chosen a function of thi
Page 44 and 45: 40 At thi s stago, a graphical desc
Page 46 and 47: 141 which correspond to the ranges
Page 48 and 49: 43 5. APPLICATIO1t TO BANGLADESH AN
Page 50 and 51: 45 Corresponding to each pattern of
Page 52 and 53: 47 for which the relevant formula i
Page 54 and 55: J49 (f] Usa-effectiveness of cont r
Page 56 and 57: 51 At this st ago it would be conve
Page 58 and 59: 53 1986 1991 1996 2001 Total natura
Page 60 and 61: 55 that a fulfi Lmant of the TFR ta
Page 62 and 63: 57 Four patterns of natural fertili
Page 64 and 65: 59 parameter K ha been introducod w
Page 66 and 67: 61 roach 0.9. (vi) Age-specific con
Page 68 and 69: 65 The main conclusions that we can
Page 70 and 71:
-r/\rps t- E
Page 72 and 73:
+4 Table A.2 Inputs(Natural fertili
Page 74 and 75:
Table A.4 Inputs(Natural fertility
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Page 80 and 81:
Page 82 and 83:
Table A.12 lnputs(Natural fertility
Page 84 and 85:
Table A.14 Inputs(Natural {ertility
Page 86 and 87:
Table A.16 ]nputs(Natural fertility
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
,A,.-:, FF7R . qe I:1..' Pafi. 'rr,
Page 94 and 95:
4.5. - I tr-t. :_- -, rl '-: ':1i
Page 96:
10. Join, A. K. and J. B ongaarts,
show all

c - usaid

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?