c - usaid
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12<br />
2. UNSATISFACTORY ELENENTS OF THE MODEL FROM THE<br />
VIEWPOINI OF USERS IN BANGLADESH<br />
-----------------------------------------------------<br />
Although the Populzti on Council's fertility model is a<br />
usefrul too l in the hLnds of demographers in Bangladesh, we fee<br />
it<br />
to be in -- quete in two important respects. The purpose of this<br />
section i to draw attention to these inadequacies wit h a view to<br />
indicating the type of modifications that era particularly<br />
necessary and which we have tried to introduce in this monograph.<br />
Neglect of CBR-targating<br />
-- -- -----------------<br />
One of the moot obvious deficiencies of the model is that it<br />
has<br />
given a step-motherly treatment to the subject of crude birth<br />
rate (CO r] in comparison to that of total ferti lity rate {TFRJ.<br />
In making this statement, we are not qua, tioning the pivotal role<br />
that rightfully belongs to TFR in fertility analysis. Our<br />
criticism is prompted by the following considerations:<br />
(i) The model provides an estimate of contraceptive prevalence<br />
rate (CPA] thit will be required to achieve a TFR target.<br />
However, corresponding to the same values of TFR and/0r<br />
CPR, different demopruphers have made widely differing<br />
estimates of CBR. In the absence of a clear<br />
linkage, within<br />
the model, between TFR and CBR, the users of the model<br />
helpless in preventing such a chaotic situation.<br />
are<br />
ii Once an impression is created that CBR values can be<br />
selected within a fairly Qide range of poaoible choices,<br />
without violating the fertility modal, planners are