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How business, doctors and journalists prey on your food anxieties I

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1111111A, Ll~ I ;IIl :~`iI AA<br />

THE MONEY MEN<br />

Looking bey<strong>on</strong>d<br />

the valle Y<br />

Bill Ehrman thinks we're at the end<br />

of a market cycle but expects the next<br />

cycle will be a winner, too, <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> so<strong>on</strong> .<br />

By Thomas Jaffe<br />

Wtt[ .tAs[ EHastaN dates his c<strong>on</strong>tempt<br />

for ~VaIJ Street to his first job out ot<br />

colle ge, as a research anah sr at Chernical<br />

Bank . He was told to prcoare a<br />

report <strong>on</strong> the rubber indusuv a[ the<br />

time when l<strong>on</strong>g-lived radial tires \\cre<br />

hitting the market . He c<strong>on</strong>c .'uded<br />

people would need fevver repiacement<br />

tires, Mhich would slow earnings<br />

growth for ilte tire mmpanics . He<br />

recommended selling tire<br />

stocks .<br />

Rentembers the Hewlert,<br />

N .Y .-born Ehrman,<br />

stocky but still cherubiclooking<br />

at 46 : "~Vhen I<br />

presented ithe report],<br />

n<strong>on</strong>e of ahe investmcnt<br />

committee had read it . All<br />

thev did, around the rable,<br />

was open up a chart book ."<br />

Clearl\ the committee<br />

members didn't vvant to<br />

bother their heads about<br />

fundamentals. Rubber<br />

companies looked good ou<br />

the charts <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> that was<br />

enough fbr them .<br />

"To this dav', <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> I've<br />

been in the <str<strong>on</strong>g>business</str<strong>on</strong>g> 25<br />

years," Ehrman says, °I<br />

have never looked at a chart<br />

book. Never go out to<br />

dumb ~Vall Street lunches .<br />

All I uy to do is logically<br />

think through «hat's hnppening<br />

. I'm a fundamentalist,<br />

A to Z,°_<br />

Passing up all those<br />

charts <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> lunche<strong>on</strong>s dear-<br />

Iy hasn't hurt Bill Eltrman .<br />

lM1 th three partners, Frcd-<br />

Ketchc, he runs a 5250 milli<strong>on</strong><br />

hedge fund, rGs Partners, L .P ., in<br />

Manhattan . Over tour eears EUs has<br />

siioun compounded annual recurns<br />

after fees of 18%, h<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>ihv beating the<br />

averages . This is the more impresske<br />

vvhen rou c<strong>on</strong>sider that EGS took a<br />

24% hit last cear, vchich it has just<br />

about made up this year .<br />

`IVh'at Fuatdamental ciem is Bill Eltr-<br />

Nlilliarn Ehrman oi EGS Parfners<br />

eric Greenberg, J<strong>on</strong>as No chart books, no dumb Wall Street lunches .<br />

Gerstl <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> Frederick ~<br />

mar acrng <strong>on</strong> right now? BullishnessThough he expects the ec<strong>on</strong>omv, to<br />

slovvsomc~vitnt, his fund is positi<strong>on</strong>ed<br />

partiallvin cvdical stocks <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> partially<br />

in sncci~al situati<strong>on</strong>s that haze nothing<br />

to do vcith thc ec<strong>on</strong>omv~ .<br />

To underst<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> Eivman's bullishness<br />

you need to know something<br />

.tbout his vrav of thinking . He worked<br />

for master spcculator George Soros in<br />

the 1980s <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> c<strong>on</strong>siders Soros a kind<br />

ot model . Ehrman describes Soros as a<br />

°fbrnard thinker ." Essend'allv, it's an<br />

abilinto look over ralley,s to the hills<br />

bey<strong>on</strong>d . While others fret about the<br />

descent into the v-allev, the Soros-typc<br />

anticipates the nice elimb up . It works<br />

both vrays, of course, since Ehrman's<br />

a hedge fund man : Sometimes you<br />

Look o\ er a hill <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> see a ca\ •ning hole<br />

<strong>on</strong> the other side .<br />

Ehrman cites his 1991 heavy cornmitmentin<br />

ivierck as an example of this<br />

kind of thutking: "Mhen \-lerck<br />

bought Medco C<strong>on</strong>tainmrtt, it took a<br />

vear-<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>-a-Italf's diluti<strong>on</strong> to earnings .<br />

Dming that pcriod earnings plateaued<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> the stock vrent from the<br />

mid-30s to the 20s . That<br />

vvas the intlecti<strong>on</strong> point ."<br />

.Y1anv traders knew Merck<br />

\4as going to go through a<br />

period of carnings diluti<strong>on</strong><br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> sold the stock, but Ehrman<br />

bou,ht .<br />

He \vas looking bec<strong>on</strong>d<br />

the vallev while others ~~ere<br />

starting dotVn into it . "Atter<br />

Merck ate through the<br />

diluti<strong>on</strong>, earnings growth,<br />

Mtich had g<strong>on</strong>e from 17%<br />

to zero, began to turn back<br />

up <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> so did the stock,<br />

vchich is now 50 .<br />

"what I've ahvavs d<strong>on</strong>e<br />

is look ft>r companies going<br />

through change, positive<br />

<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> ncgative," Ehrman<br />

gocs <strong>on</strong> . "The positive<br />

could be a managerial or a<br />

structural change . Or like<br />

ir;, where cou teel the value<br />

vtill be unlocked by<br />

managcment ."<br />

Right now he <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> his<br />

parrners like warner-Lambert<br />

(84), which he expects<br />

to be restructured or taken<br />

o\er .<br />

"I\vantstocksIcan make<br />

m<strong>on</strong>ea <strong>on</strong> in more than <strong>on</strong>e<br />

~<br />

C<br />

tr7<br />

~<br />

174 ~ Forbcs E August 14, 1995- ~ -_ - .<br />

http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/agf97d00/pdf<br />

. --__ __ .<br />

- ..-_ . ._.,, . .<br />

.___ . . . . . . . . - , . .<br />

~

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