How business, doctors and journalists prey on your food anxieties I
How business, doctors and journalists prey on your food anxieties I
How business, doctors and journalists prey on your food anxieties I
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scientific phenomen<strong>on</strong><br />
kno~%n as daca dredging, a<br />
creature of the age of<br />
huge databases <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> cheap<br />
computing power .<br />
Data dredgers can just<br />
take 100 <strong>food</strong> items <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
pers<strong>on</strong>al habits <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> compare<br />
them with 100 dit£erent<br />
ailments . If necessan,,<br />
divide <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> subdivide diseases<br />
',ike cancer according<br />
to the organ it affects .<br />
Now you have a matrix<br />
with 10,000 cells . ENen if<br />
there is no cause-<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>-cffect<br />
relati<strong>on</strong>ship in any of<br />
those cells, you are still<br />
sure to find around 100<br />
stunning correlati<strong>on</strong>s<br />
about wluch vou can h<strong>on</strong>esrlv<br />
make this claim :<br />
"The chance of this correlati<strong>on</strong><br />
arising by chance is<br />
less than 1 in 100 ." That's «hat rou publish .<br />
Good science attempts to comprehend natutr in a<br />
the<strong>on</strong>-, rhen to make predicti<strong>on</strong>s <strong>on</strong> the basis ofthe the<strong>on</strong>,<br />
then to test the predicti<strong>on</strong>s against obscnati<strong>on</strong> or ezperiment<br />
. Firstvou set up the target, then eou shoot at it . Data<br />
dredging turns this <strong>on</strong> its ear . It finds data, then tries to<br />
build a die<strong>on</strong>- around it . It looks for bullet holes, draws<br />
circles around them <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> proclaims : bull's-e~e .<br />
No, we're not saeing that all correlati<strong>on</strong>s benceen diet<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> health are bunk . There's the c<strong>on</strong>necti<strong>on</strong> between<br />
cigarette smoking <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> lung cancer . Statistics \critied it<br />
across social classes <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> nati<strong>on</strong>s . ilnimal studies <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> tissueculture<br />
experiments provided a phcsiologic basis !or the<br />
c<strong>on</strong>necti<strong>on</strong> .<br />
But too mana people<br />
verc quick to jump tirom<br />
this example to a broad<br />
indictment of e~en, new<br />
subStdnce introduced<br />
since the industrial recoluti<strong>on</strong><br />
. Substances such as<br />
alar, formaldehnde <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
nEiT are often alleged to iie<br />
behind the so-called explosi<strong>on</strong><br />
in reported cancer<br />
cases . But, as many epidemiologists<br />
have pointed<br />
out, there is no such epidemic<br />
(except for lung<br />
eancerl . tiVhr then is cur<br />
cer increasing as industrializati<strong>on</strong><br />
spreads? Because<br />
industrializati<strong>on</strong> general-<br />
Iv raises living st<str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g>ards,<br />
allowing ntore of us to live<br />
l<strong>on</strong>g enough to de%elop<br />
cancer <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> to allo«a<br />
o«-gro«ing tumor to<br />
sho%c itselE Indtutri .tlizati<strong>on</strong><br />
also imens <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> then<br />
pn~'s for the high-tecS<br />
tests that find cancers :hat<br />
nouki Irare eluded the<br />
best diagnosticians of a<br />
senerati<strong>on</strong> ago .<br />
Whiic suroeNs like the<br />
<strong>on</strong>e going <strong>on</strong> in Framingham,<br />
Jtass . for the past .7<br />
vears can te!I tou tltatltieh<br />
cholesterol correlates<br />
with the derelopment of<br />
heart disease, that doesn't<br />
pro%e that lotcering cho-<br />
Iesterul will do any good .<br />
A correlated eariable mz<br />
be a marker, not a cause .<br />
L<strong>on</strong>g hair correlates «ell<br />
widt the female sex, but<br />
cutting a %coman's l :.ur<br />
%r<strong>on</strong>'t tu :-n her into ;: man .<br />
E\en ifcou coukd determine,<br />
<strong>on</strong>ce <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> lor .tll, that a gi\ en diet reduces ~'our risk of<br />
eetting or:e diseasc, vrou still cotdd not be sure that it<br />
~% •ould not raise rour risk of gett~.ng another . Some<br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>doctors</str<strong>on</strong>g>-a small niinorirv, to be sure-belie%e that cholestcrol-loNxering<br />
programs push n:an .~ patients into depressi<strong>on</strong>,<br />
perhaps ibr reas<strong>on</strong>s ofbrain chemisrt, . If thcr are<br />
right, some <str<strong>on</strong>g>doctors</str<strong>on</strong>g> maN be drix ing people to suicide in dic<br />
questi<strong>on</strong>able name of reducing their risk of heart attack .<br />
A certain c<strong>on</strong>senatism is in order here . Resist the<br />
temptati<strong>on</strong> to ineoroorate a ncu :`Eiding into %our 1 .eaLth<br />
regimen until it has beett examined thom mamattglos, for<br />
manp years . Wait out the l<strong>on</strong>g-term studies that acrualh'<br />
test theories under c<strong>on</strong>trolled c<strong>on</strong>diti<strong>on</strong>s . Othentise Vou<br />
may 2dopt a cure that's<br />
o orse than the disease . To<br />
steel }•om-self in resisting<br />
such remptati<strong>on</strong>s, c<strong>on</strong>sidcr<br />
that h}'poclt<strong>on</strong>dria itself<br />
6 a disease, <strong>on</strong>e that robs<br />
%,ou not of life but of its<br />
cnjolntent .<br />
We're strange people,<br />
ae ,-kmericans . Iu 1900<br />
our life e .pectmur at<br />
birth ~~-as 47 vcars . Aow,<br />
thanks largelv to imvrrned<br />
sanitati<strong>on</strong>, rao<br />
cines <str<strong>on</strong>g>and</str<strong>on</strong>g> better nourishmenr-all<br />
made ~cidelv<br />
aeailable b% our indrtctrial<br />
ec<strong>on</strong>orrc-our life expectanc)'<br />
is 76 ~'ears . Do<br />
Wc rcjoice at our good<br />
tbrtunei No, we ure c<strong>on</strong>-<br />
~inced a lot of people<br />
out there arc awing to<br />
pais<strong>on</strong> u .s. M<br />
Forbu a August 14, 1y95 . . 13,<br />
2046673393<br />
http://legacy.library.ucsf.edu/tid/agf97d00/pdf