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<strong>The</strong> <strong>Welfare</strong> <strong>Effects</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Coordinated</strong> <strong>School</strong> <strong>Assignment</strong>:<br />

Evidence from the NYC High <strong>School</strong> Match ∗<br />

Atila Abdulkadiroğlu Nikhil Agarwal Parag A. Pathak †<br />

November 2013<br />

Abstract<br />

Centralized and coordinated school assignment systems are a growing part <strong>of</strong> recent education<br />

reforms. This paper estimates school demand using student rank order lists submitted<br />

in New York City’s high school assignment system launched in Fall 2003 to study the effects<br />

<strong>of</strong> coordinating admissions in a single-<strong>of</strong>fer mechanism based on the deferred acceptance<br />

algorithm. Compared to the previous mechanism with multiple <strong>of</strong>fers, a limited number<br />

<strong>of</strong> choices, and three rounds <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fer processing, there is a 7.2 percentage point increase in<br />

matriculation at assigned school in the new mechanism. Student preferences trade <strong>of</strong>f proximity<br />

and school quality, but are substantially heterogeneous. Uncoordinated <strong>of</strong>fers leave<br />

more than a third unassigned after the first round, <strong>of</strong> which the majority eventually obtain<br />

over-the-counter assignments close to home. <strong>The</strong> new mechanism assigns students to schools<br />

on average 0.69 miles further away. Even though all else equal students prefer nearby schools,<br />

we estimate that the average student welfare gain from the improved school match is equal<br />

to eight times the disutility from increased travel. Students from across all demographic<br />

groups, boroughs, and baseline achievement categories obtain a more preferred assignment<br />

on average, though the benefit is larger for student groups more likely to be unassigned after<br />

the old mechanism’s first round. <strong>The</strong>se facts imply that allocative changes involving matching<br />

mechanisms need not be zero-sum. However, the gains from coordinating assignment are<br />

larger than from relaxing constraints imposed by the new mechanism’s assignment algorithm.<br />

JEL: C78, D50, D61, I21<br />

Keywords: <strong>School</strong> Choice, Matching <strong>The</strong>ory, Deferred Acceptance, Congestion<br />

∗ We thank Neil Dorosin, Jesse Margolis, and Elizabeth Sciabarra for their expertise and for facilitating access to<br />

the data used in this study. A special thanks to Alvin E. Roth for his collaboration, which made this study possible.<br />

Jesse Margolis provided extremely helpful detailed comments. We also thank Josh Angrist, Jerry Hausman, and<br />

Ariel Pakes and seminar participants at the NBER Market Design conference for input. We received excellent<br />

research assistance from Weiwei Hu, Danielle Wedde, and a hardworking team <strong>of</strong> MIT undergraduates. Pathak<br />

acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (grant SES-1056325). Abdulkadiroğlu and Pathak<br />

are board members <strong>of</strong> the Institute for Innovation in Public <strong>School</strong> Choice, a non-pr<strong>of</strong>it that provides technical<br />

assistance to districts on enrollment issues.<br />

† Abdulkadiroğlu: Department <strong>of</strong> Economics, Duke University, email: atila.abdulkadiroglu@duke.edu. Agarwal:<br />

Cowles Foundation, Yale University and Department <strong>of</strong> Economics, MIT email: agarwaln@mit.edu. Pathak:<br />

Department <strong>of</strong> Economics, MIT and NBER, email: ppathak@mit.edu.


1 Introduction<br />

Whether transferring to an out-<strong>of</strong>-zone public school, applying to a charter, magnet or selective<br />

exam school, or using a voucher to attend a private school, a growing number <strong>of</strong> families can now<br />

opt out <strong>of</strong> attending their neighborhood school. As school choice options have proliferated, so<br />

too has the way in which choices are expressed and students are assigned. Ad hoc decentralized<br />

assignment systems where students applied separately to schools with uncoordinated admissions<br />

<strong>of</strong>fers have been replaced with centralized, coordinated single-<strong>of</strong>fer assignment mechanisms in<br />

a number <strong>of</strong> cities including Denver, London, New Orleans, and New York City. 1 In these<br />

cities, student demand is matched with the school seat supply using algorithms inspired by the<br />

theory <strong>of</strong> matching markets (Gale and Shapley 1962, Shapley and Scarf 1974, Abdulkadiroğlu<br />

and Sönmez 2003). Changes in assignment protocols are inevitably controversial, however, since<br />

reallocating school seats may result in some students assigned to high quality schools while others<br />

are assigned to less desirable alternatives.<br />

In this paper, we exploit a large-scale policy change in New York City to study the effects<br />

<strong>of</strong> moving from an uncoordinated assignment system to a coordinated single-<strong>of</strong>fer system on the<br />

allocation <strong>of</strong> students to schools. Prior to 2003, roughly 80,000 aspiring high school students<br />

applied to five out <strong>of</strong> more than 600 school programs; they could receive multiple <strong>of</strong>fers and<br />

be placed on wait lists. Students in turn were allowed to accept only one school and one wait<br />

list <strong>of</strong>fer, and the cycle <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fers and acceptances repeated two more times. However, a total <strong>of</strong><br />

three rounds <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fer processing proved insufficient to allocate all students to schools, and more<br />

than 25,000 applicants were assigned to schools not on their original application list through<br />

an administrative “over-the-counter” process. Students initially expressed their preferences on a<br />

common application, but admissions <strong>of</strong>fers were not coordinated across schools, so we refer to<br />

the old mechanism as an uncoordinated mechanism.<br />

In Fall 2003, the system was replaced by a single-<strong>of</strong>fer assignment system, based on the<br />

student-proposing deferred acceptance algorithm for the main round. Applicants were allowed<br />

to rank up to 12 programs for enrollment in 2004-05 and a supplementary round assigned those<br />

unassigned in the main round. Since most students received one <strong>of</strong>fer through the central <strong>of</strong>fice,<br />

we refer to this new mechanism as a coordinated mechanism. <strong>The</strong> Department <strong>of</strong> Education<br />

(DOE) adopted the new mechanism to provide a greater voice to student’s choices, to utilize<br />

school places more efficiently, and to reduce gaming involved to obtain a school seat (Kerr 2003).<br />

Parents were also provided with additional information on school options through an expanded<br />

set <strong>of</strong> parent workshops and high school fairs. At the conclusion <strong>of</strong> the first year, 82% <strong>of</strong> students<br />

were assigned in the main round and one-third fewer participants were processed in the over-thecounter<br />

round.<br />

This large-scale policy change provides a unique opportunity to investigate the consequences<br />

<strong>of</strong> centralized and coordinated school assignment. Changes were advertised widely beginning<br />

only in September 2003, and students submitted their preferences in November 2003. This brief<br />

timeline limits the scope for participants to react by moving in response to the new mechanism.<br />

1 A number <strong>of</strong> U.S. cities are in the process <strong>of</strong> adopting unified enrollment systems using similar matching<br />

algorithms, including Chicago, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington DC (Darville 2013).<br />

1


Moreover, rich micro-level data from both systems allow us to surmount many <strong>of</strong> the usual challenges<br />

associated with evaluating allocative aspects <strong>of</strong> assignment mechanisms. A key strength <strong>of</strong><br />

our study is that we observe submitted preferences, round-by-round placements, and subsequent<br />

school enrollment <strong>of</strong> all students in both the old and new mechanism. Using student preferences<br />

together with detailed information on student and school attributes, we estimate the factors that<br />

account for school demand. <strong>The</strong> estimated preference distribution is then used to evaluate the<br />

distributional consequences <strong>of</strong> the new mechanism and to assess mechanism design choices.<br />

<strong>The</strong> new mechanism is based on the student-proposing deferred acceptance mechanism, where<br />

truth-telling is a weakly dominant strategy for participants (Dubins and Freedman 1981, Roth<br />

1982). This motivates our empirical approach <strong>of</strong> recovering the preference distribution using<br />

the revealed preferences <strong>of</strong> students with discrete choice demand models. <strong>The</strong> richness <strong>of</strong> our<br />

data allow us to fit models with substantial student heterogeneity and unobserved school effects.<br />

While the incentive properties <strong>of</strong> the new mechanism motivate treating stated rankings as true<br />

preferences, there are some complications we investigate. First, the new mechanism only allows<br />

participants to rank at most 12 choices. Although 80% <strong>of</strong> applicants in our sample rank fewer than<br />

12, this constraint interferes with the dominant strategy property <strong>of</strong> the mechanism for students<br />

who find more than 12 schools acceptable (Abdulkadiroğlu, Pathak, and Roth 2009, Haeringer<br />

and Klijn 2009). Second, it is possible that the sudden adoption <strong>of</strong> the new mechanism led some<br />

families to use heuristics developed from the old mechanism, despite the DOE’s advice to rank<br />

schools truthfully. 2 For instance, some families might have ranked a “safety” school as their last<br />

choice, even though the new mechanism’s properties make this unnecessary if ranking fewer than<br />

12 choices.<br />

We start with benchmark models that use all ranked choices and assume the ranking is<br />

truthful, before turning to several alternatives. <strong>The</strong> alternatives are from models that treat only<br />

top choice as the most preferred alternative, that treat only the top three choices as the three<br />

most preferred, that restrict the student sample to those ranking less than 12 schools and treating<br />

their rankings as truthful, and that use all choices other than the last to eliminate a possible<br />

safety-school effect. We also report estimates assuming that stated choices are not necessarily<br />

preferred to unranked schools and from models with different assumptions on the outside option.<br />

We do not directly model strategic choices because we anticipate strategic considerations to be<br />

less important in mechanisms based on deferred acceptance than in other more manipulable<br />

mechanisms. 3<br />

Changes in student assignment due to the coordination <strong>of</strong> admissions <strong>of</strong>fers can happen<br />

through many channels. First, the new mechanism allows students to rank up to 12 choices,<br />

whereas the old mechanism only allowed for five. Second, the limited number <strong>of</strong> rounds <strong>of</strong><br />

<strong>of</strong>fers and acceptances can lead to coordination failures where students hold on to less preferred<br />

choices waiting to be <strong>of</strong>fered seats at more preferred schools once others decline. With few<br />

rounds <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fer processing, this may, in turn, lead to inefficiencies as many are left unassigned,<br />

2 <strong>The</strong> DOE’s school brochure advised: “You must now rank your 12 choices according to your true preferences”<br />

(DOE 2003).<br />

3 Hastings and Weinstein (2008) report that in Charlotte-Mecklensburg’s highly manipulable immediate acceptance<br />

mechanism, students respond to information on historical odds <strong>of</strong> assignment. Pathak and Sönmez (2013)<br />

formalize how constrained deferred acceptance is less manipulable than the immediate acceptance mechanism.<br />

2


a phenomenon termed congestion by Roth and Xing (1997). In the old mechanism, the district<br />

simply placed unassigned students to nearby schools in an over-the-counter process, even if they<br />

wanted to go elsewhere. In a centralized single-<strong>of</strong>fer system, school seats can be used effectively,<br />

as the computerized rounds <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fers and acceptances minimize coordination issues related to<br />

insufficient <strong>of</strong>fer processing time. Third, in New York’s old mechanism, schools were able to see<br />

the entire rank ordering <strong>of</strong> applicants, and <strong>of</strong>ten advertised they would only consider those who<br />

ranked them first. This property creates strategic pressure on student ranking decisions. Each<br />

<strong>of</strong> these features <strong>of</strong> uncoordinated assignment can result in student mismatch.<br />

On the other hand, coordinated assignment may make encourage movement throughout the<br />

district for little benefit. Ravitch (2011), for instance, argues that the elevation <strong>of</strong> choice in<br />

NYC “destroyed the concept <strong>of</strong> neighborhood schools” as “children scattered across the city in<br />

response to the lure <strong>of</strong> new, unknown small schools with catchy names, or were assigned to<br />

schools far from home.” Critics <strong>of</strong> the new system believed that denying principals’ information<br />

on students’ ranking <strong>of</strong> the school restricts a principal’s ability to attract “students who want<br />

them most” (Herszenhorn 2004). This logic implies that removing a school’s ability to know<br />

whether they were ranked first could lead fewer <strong>of</strong> their <strong>of</strong>fered students to enroll. It also may be<br />

in a district’s interest to advantage certain student subgroups to prevent them from leaving the<br />

district (Engberg, Epple, Imbrogno, Sieg, and Zimmer 2010). 4 Providing students with multiple<br />

<strong>of</strong>fers and letting them decide upon receiving <strong>of</strong>fers may make it easier for some students to decide<br />

what school is best for them. 5 Taken together, these points suggest that the new mechanism<br />

may involve a substantial redistribution among students, rather than better assignments for most<br />

students.<br />

<strong>The</strong> questions we examine are also relevant to other settings where uncoordinated assignment<br />

procedures have been replaced with coordinated ones. For instance, in England, where the 2003<br />

Admissions Code mandated coordination <strong>of</strong> admissions nationwide, a number <strong>of</strong> local education<br />

authorities, governing bodies similar to U.S. school districts, adopted common applications and<br />

centralized assignment. <strong>The</strong> English motivation parallels NYC since authorities wanted to ensure<br />

that “every child within a local authority area would receive one <strong>of</strong>fer <strong>of</strong> a school place on the same<br />

day. This would eliminate or largely eliminate multiple <strong>of</strong>fers and free up places for parents who<br />

would not otherwise be <strong>of</strong>fered a place” (Pennell, West, and Hind 2006). All 32 London boroughs<br />

coordinated to establish a Pan London Admissions Scheme based on deferred acceptance to make<br />

the admissions system “fairer” and “simpler,” and to “result in more parents getting an <strong>of</strong>fer <strong>of</strong><br />

a place for their child at one <strong>of</strong> their preferred schools earlier and fewer getting no <strong>of</strong>fer at all”<br />

(ALG 2005, Pathak and Sönmez 2013). In 2012, the Recovery <strong>School</strong> District in New Orleans<br />

also coordinated disparate school application processes within a common application and single<strong>of</strong>fer<br />

system, citing the need to eliminate a “frustrating, ad-hoc enrollment process handled at<br />

individual campuses” (Vanacore 2012).<br />

We find compelling evidence that the new mechanism is an improvement relative to the old<br />

one based on <strong>of</strong>fer processing and matriculation patterns. Students are more likely to enroll in<br />

4 Williams (2004) pr<strong>of</strong>iles families who had to pay a deposit to reserve a spot in a private or parochial school<br />

while awaiting their school placement in the first year <strong>of</strong> the new mechanism.<br />

5 Similar arguments for the flexibility provided by multiple <strong>of</strong>fer systems have been raised by critics <strong>of</strong> the<br />

National Residency Matching Program. See, e.g., Bulow and Levin (2006) and Agarwal (2013).<br />

3


the school they are assigned. In the old mechanism, 18.6% <strong>of</strong> students matriculated at schools<br />

other than where they were assigned at the end <strong>of</strong> the match, while in the new mechanism only<br />

11.4% students do. Multiple <strong>of</strong>fers and short rank order lists in the old mechanism advantage<br />

few students, but leave many without <strong>of</strong>fers. Roughly one-fifth <strong>of</strong> students obtained multiple<br />

<strong>of</strong>fers, but <strong>of</strong> those who accept a first round <strong>of</strong>fer, more than 70% take their most preferred <strong>of</strong>fer,<br />

suggesting that the majority <strong>of</strong> the students with multiple <strong>of</strong>fers did not benefit from having<br />

more than one option. Half <strong>of</strong> applicants obtain no first round <strong>of</strong>fer and 59% <strong>of</strong> these applicants<br />

are assigned in the over-the-counter process. <strong>The</strong> take-up rates for over-the-counter students<br />

are similar across mechanisms, but the number <strong>of</strong> students assigned in that round is three times<br />

larger in the old mechanism. In addition, 8.5% <strong>of</strong> applicants left the district after assignment in<br />

the old mechanism, while only 6.4% left under the new mechanism.<br />

<strong>The</strong> most significant difference between assignments under the two mechanisms is the distance<br />

between students and their assigned school. In the old mechanism, students travelled on average<br />

3.36 miles to reach their assigned school. Students travel 0.69 miles further in the new mechanism.<br />

All else equal, students prefer schools that are closer to home according to their preference<br />

rankings in the new mechanism. However, preferences are substantially heterogeneous. Estimates<br />

from models using all ranked choices show that student preferences trade <strong>of</strong>f proximity and school<br />

quality. Asian and white students and those with high baseline scores exhibit greater variance in<br />

their taste for school characteristics, net <strong>of</strong> distance, than black and Hispanics and those with low<br />

baselines scores, respectively. Students prefer schools with higher math achievement, but high<br />

baseline math students prefer them more. Students prefer schools with fewer subsidized lunch<br />

peers, but students from wealthier neighborhoods prefer them more. Students prefer schools with<br />

more white peers, but white and Asian students are more sensitive to this dimension than blacks<br />

and Hispanics. Variations from the demand model using first choice, top three choices, choices<br />

among those who rank fewer than 12, and dropping last choice show broadly consistent patterns.<br />

This fact together with evidence on both in and out-<strong>of</strong>-sample model fit reassure us about the<br />

suitability <strong>of</strong> using the estimated preferences to make statements about student welfare.<br />

<strong>The</strong> preference estimates suggest that the new mechanism has made it easier for students to<br />

express and obtain a choice they want. Even though school assignments are further away, based<br />

on our estimated distribution <strong>of</strong> preferences, the amount that students prefer these schools more<br />

than compensates for this difference. Ignoring the greater travel distance, the improvement<br />

associated with the matched school is distance-equivalent <strong>of</strong> 5.53 miles; net <strong>of</strong> distance, the<br />

average improvement is 4.79 miles. That is, on average the improved school match is equal to<br />

eight times the disutility from increased travel. Students across demographic groups, boroughs,<br />

baseline achievement levels all obtain a more preferred assignment on average from the new<br />

mechanism. <strong>The</strong> largest gains are for student groups who were more likely to be unassigned<br />

after the old mechanism’s first round. Given that some students eventually must attend less<br />

desirable schools under any mechanism, the pattern suggests the assignments produced by the<br />

new mechanism were a net improvement for most students and these allocative changes were<br />

not from zero-sum. <strong>The</strong>se gains are also seen whether utility is measured based on assignments<br />

made at the end <strong>of</strong> the high school match or based on subsequent enrollment.<br />

<strong>The</strong> reforms <strong>of</strong> the school choice mechanism in New York City also raise a number <strong>of</strong> optimal<br />

4


design questions that we examine using our preference estimates. As a benchmark, we compute<br />

the utilitarian optimal assignment given resource constraints on the number <strong>of</strong> school seats. <strong>The</strong><br />

new mechanism is 2.85 miles in distance-equivalent utility below this idealized benchmark. Had<br />

the mechanism produced a student-optimal stable matching, average student welfare improves<br />

by an equivalent <strong>of</strong> 0.11 miles. 6 An ordinally Pareto efficient matching is equivalent to an<br />

improvement <strong>of</strong> 0.60 miles. Unfortunately, these allocations cannot be implemented without<br />

harming the mechanism’s incentive properties and mechanisms that implement these allocations<br />

as equilibrium outcomes are not known. Nonetheless, the average welfare levels from these<br />

counterfactuals show that any potential gain from relaxing the constraints imposed by the new<br />

mechanism’s algorithm are smaller than those from coordinating assignments.<br />

<strong>The</strong> literature on school choice is immense and not easily summarized. We share a focus<br />

with papers interested in understanding how choice affects assignment and sorting <strong>of</strong> students<br />

(Epple and Romano 1998, Urquiola 2005), rather than the competitive effects <strong>of</strong> choice on student<br />

achievement (Hoxby 2003, Rothstein 2006). We also concentrate our study on allocative<br />

efficiency, rather than effects <strong>of</strong> choice options on subsequent test scores (Abdulkadiroğlu, Angrist,<br />

Dynarski, Kane, and Pathak 2011, Deming, Hastings, Kane, and Staiger 2011). This study<br />

contributes to a growing theoretical literature on centralized admissions to college (Balinski<br />

and Sönmez 1999) and K-12 public schools (Abdulkadiroğlu and Sönmez 2003). A number<br />

<strong>of</strong> recent papers use micro data from assignment mechanisms to understand school demand<br />

(Hastings, Kane, and Staiger 2009, He 2012), but these datasets comes from variants <strong>of</strong> the<br />

Boston mechanism, a mechanism where parents have a strong incentive to rank schools strategically.<br />

Niederle and Roth (2003)’s study <strong>of</strong> the introduction <strong>of</strong> a gastroentrology match is an<br />

important precursor, but the rich data we have allow us to examine the consequences <strong>of</strong> sorting,<br />

quantitatively evaluate student welfare, and assess design choices. Finally, our work complements<br />

theoretical papers investigating other assignment mechanisms using simulated data<br />

(Erdil and Ergin 2008, Kesten 2010, Abdulkadiroğlu, Che, and Yasuda 2012) or those that<br />

use submitted ordinal student preferences to examine theoretical counterfactuals, but not with<br />

empirically-grounded cardinalizations <strong>of</strong> utility (Abdulkadiroğlu, Pathak, and Roth 2009, Pathak<br />

and Sönmez 2008).<br />

<strong>The</strong> paper proceeds as follows. Section 2 provides additional details on high school assignment<br />

in New York City. Section 3 describes our data. Section 4 reports on descriptive features <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fer<br />

processing in the two mechanisms. In Section 5 we outline our empirical strategy, while Section 6<br />

reports estimates <strong>of</strong> the distribution <strong>of</strong> student preferences. Section 7 uses the demand estimates<br />

to compare student welfare across the two mechanisms, while Section 8 quantitatively assesses<br />

trade<strong>of</strong>fs in design choices. <strong>The</strong> last section concludes.<br />

6 Even though the mechanism is based on student-proposing deferred acceptance, the matching is not studentoptimal<br />

because school-side priorities are not strict (Erdil and Ergin 2008, Abdulkadiroğlu, Pathak, and Roth<br />

2009, Kesten 2010, Kesten and Kurino 2012).<br />

5


2 High <strong>School</strong> Choice in NYC<br />

2.1 <strong>School</strong> Options<br />

Forms <strong>of</strong> high school choice have existed in New York City for decades. Before 2002, high<br />

school assignment in New York City featured a hodgepodge <strong>of</strong> choice options mostly controlled<br />

by borough-wide high school superintendents. Significant admissions power resided with the<br />

schools because they could directly enroll students. Across the city, specific programs existed<br />

within schools, with curricula ranging from the arts to sciences to vocational training. It was not<br />

uncommon for multiple program types to exist within the same school, a feature that continues<br />

today. <strong>The</strong> set <strong>of</strong> school programs that developed at the time shaped the set <strong>of</strong> school options<br />

available in the uncoordinated mechanism. <strong>The</strong> 2002-03 High <strong>School</strong> directory describes seven<br />

types <strong>of</strong> programs, categorized according to their admissions criteria.<br />

At Specialized High <strong>School</strong>s, such as Stuyvesant and Bronx Science, there is only one type <strong>of</strong><br />

program, which admits students by admissions test performance on the Specialized High <strong>School</strong>s<br />

Admissions Test (SHSAT). 7 Audition programs interview students for pr<strong>of</strong>iciency in specific<br />

performing or visual arts, music, or dance. Screened programs evaluate students individually<br />

using an assortment <strong>of</strong> criteria including a student’s 7th grade report card, reading and math<br />

standardized scores, attendance and punctuality, interview, essay or additional diagnostic tests.<br />

Educational Option programs also evaluate students individually, but for half their seats. <strong>The</strong><br />

other half is allocated by lottery. Allocation <strong>of</strong> seats in each half targets a distribution <strong>of</strong><br />

student ability: 16 percent <strong>of</strong> seats should be allocated to high performing readers, 68 percent<br />

to middle performers, and 16 percent to low performers. Unscreened programs admit students<br />

by random lottery, while Zoned programs give priority to students who apply and live in the<br />

geographic zoned area <strong>of</strong> the high school. Limited Unscreened programs allocate seats randomly,<br />

but give priority to students who attend an information session or visit the school’s exhibit at<br />

high school fairs or open houses conducted each admissions season. We categorize programs<br />

into three main groups: Screened programs which also include Testing and Audition programs,<br />

Unscreened programs, which also include limited Unscreened and Zoned programs, and the rest<br />

are Educational Option programs.<br />

Throughout the last decade, a important component <strong>of</strong> education reform efforts in NYC<br />

involved closing and opening <strong>of</strong> new small high schools throughout the city, with roughly 400<br />

students. A big push for these small high schools came as part <strong>of</strong> the New Century High <strong>School</strong>s<br />

Initiative launched by Mayor Bloomberg and Chancellor Klein. Eleven new small high schools<br />

were opened in 2002 and 23 new small schools were opened in 2003, and the peak year <strong>of</strong> small<br />

high school openings was in 2004 (Abulkadiroğlu, Hu, and Pathak 2013). Most <strong>of</strong> these schools<br />

are small and have about 100 students per entering class. As a result, the new small high schools<br />

have a relatively small impact on overall enrollment patterns during our study period.<br />

7 Abdulkadiroğlu, Angrist, and Pathak (2013) describe their admissions process in more detail.<br />

6


2.2 Uncoordinated Admissions in 2002-03<br />

Admissions to the Specialized High <strong>School</strong>s and the LaGuardia High <strong>School</strong> <strong>of</strong> Music & Art and<br />

Performing Arts have been traditionally administered as a separate process from regular high<br />

schools, which did not change with the new mechanism. 8 In 2002-03, nearly 30,000 rising high<br />

schoolers applied for about 5,000 spots at one <strong>of</strong> the five Specialized High <strong>School</strong>s or LaGuardia<br />

by taking the SHSAT in late October and rank them in order <strong>of</strong> preference.<br />

About 80,000 students who are interested in regular high schools visit schools and attend citywide<br />

high school fairs before submitting their preference in the fall. In 2002-03, students could<br />

apply to at most five regular programs in addition to the Specialized High <strong>School</strong>s. Programs<br />

receiving a student’s application were able to see the applicant’s entire preference list, including<br />

where their program was ranked. Programs then decided whom to accept, place on a waiting<br />

list, or reject. Applicants were sent a decision letter from each program they had applied to and<br />

some obtained more than one <strong>of</strong>fer. Students were allowed to accept at most one admission and<br />

one wait-list <strong>of</strong>fer. After receiving responses to the first letters, programs with vacant seats could<br />

make new <strong>of</strong>fers to students from waiting lists. After the second round, students who do not have<br />

a zoned high school are allowed to participate in a supplementary round known as the variable<br />

assignment (VAS) process. In the supplementary round, students could rank up to eight choices,<br />

and students were assigned based on negotiation on seat availability between the enrollment<br />

<strong>of</strong>fice and high school superintendents. After replies to the second letter were received, a third<br />

letter with the new <strong>of</strong>fers was sent. New <strong>of</strong>fers did not necessarily go to wait-listed students in<br />

a predetermined order. Remaining unassigned students were assigned their zoned programs or<br />

administratively, when the central <strong>of</strong>fice tried to place kids as close to home as possible, ignoring<br />

their preferences. We refer to this final stage as the over the counter round. 9<br />

Three features <strong>of</strong> this assignment scheme motivated the NYC DOE to abandon it in favor <strong>of</strong> a<br />

new mechanism. First, there was inadequate time for <strong>of</strong>fers, wait list decisions, and acceptances<br />

to clear the market for school seats. DOE <strong>of</strong>ficials reported that in some cases high achieving<br />

students received acceptances from all <strong>of</strong> the schools they applied to, while many received none<br />

(Herszenhorn 2004). Comments by the Deputy <strong>School</strong>s Chancellor summarized the frustration:<br />

“Parents are told a school is full, then in two months, miracles <strong>of</strong> miracles, seats open up, but<br />

other kids get them. Something is wrong” (Gendar 2000).<br />

Second, some schools awarded priority in admissions to students who ranked them first on<br />

their application form. <strong>The</strong> high school directory advises that when ranking schools, students<br />

should “... determine what your competition is for a seat in this program” (DOE 2002). This<br />

recommendation puts strategic pressure on ranking decisions. Listing such a school first would<br />

improve the likelihood <strong>of</strong> an <strong>of</strong>fer at the risk <strong>of</strong> rejection from other schools, which take rankings<br />

8 <strong>The</strong> 1972 Hecht-Calandra Act is a New York State law that governs admissions to the original four Specialized<br />

high schools: Stuyvesant, Bronx High <strong>School</strong> <strong>of</strong> Science, Brooklyn Technical, and Fiorello H. LaGuardia High<br />

<strong>School</strong> <strong>of</strong> Music and Performance Arts. City <strong>of</strong>ficials indicated that this law prevents including these schools<br />

within the common application system without an act <strong>of</strong> the state legislature.<br />

9 Other accounts <strong>of</strong> New York City’s high school admissions process now refer to the over the counter round<br />

as the the placement <strong>of</strong> students who did not submit an high school application because they are new to New<br />

York City (Arvidsson, Fruchter, and Mokhtar 2013). Our analysis follows applicants through to assignment and<br />

therefore does not consider students who arrived to the process after the high school match.<br />

7


into account.<br />

Third, a number <strong>of</strong> schools managed to conceal capacity to fill seats later on with better<br />

students. For example, the Deputy Chancellor stated, “before you might have a situation where a<br />

school was going to take 100 new children for ninth grade, they might have declared only 40 seats,<br />

and then placed the other 60 outside the process” (Herszenhorn 2004). Overall, critics alleged<br />

that the old mechanism disadvantaged low-achieving students, and those without sophisticated<br />

parents (Hemphill and Nauer 2009).<br />

2.3 <strong>Coordinated</strong> Admissions in 2003-04<br />

<strong>The</strong> new mechanism was designed with input from economists (see Abdulkadiroğlu, Pathak,<br />

and Roth (2005) and Abdulkadiroğlu, Pathak, and Roth (2009)). When publicizing the new<br />

mechanism, the DOE explained that its goals were to utilize school places more efficiently and<br />

to reduce the gaming involved in obtaining school seats (Kerr 2003). In the first round, students<br />

apply to Specialized High <strong>School</strong>s when they take the SHSAT, just as in previous years. Offers<br />

are produced according to a serial dictatorship with priority given by SHSAT scores.<br />

In the main round, students can rank up to twelve regular school programs in their application,<br />

which are due in November. <strong>The</strong> DOE advised parents: “You must now rank your 12<br />

choices according to your true preferences” because this round is built on Gale and Shapley<br />

(1962)’s student-proposing deferred acceptance algorithm. <strong>School</strong>s with programs that prioritize<br />

applicants based on auditions, test scores or other criteria are sent lists <strong>of</strong> students who ranked<br />

the school, but these lists do not reveal where in the preference lists they were ranked. <strong>School</strong>s<br />

return orderings <strong>of</strong> applicants to the central enrollment <strong>of</strong>fice. <strong>School</strong>s that prioritize applicants<br />

using geographic or other criteria have those criteria applied by the central <strong>of</strong>fice. That <strong>of</strong>fice<br />

uses a single lottery to break ties amongst students with the same priority, generating a strict<br />

ordering <strong>of</strong> students at each school.<br />

<strong>Assignment</strong> is determined by the student-proposing deferred acceptance algorithm with student<br />

preferences over the schools, school capacities, and school’s strict ordering <strong>of</strong> students as<br />

parameters. <strong>The</strong> algorithm is run with all students in February. In this first round, only students<br />

who receive a Specialized High <strong>School</strong> <strong>of</strong>fer receive a letter indicating their regular school<br />

assignment, and are asked to choose one. After they respond, students that accept an <strong>of</strong>fer are<br />

removed, school capacities are adjusted and the algorithm is re-run with the remaining students.<br />

All students receive a letter notifying them <strong>of</strong> their assignment or whether they are unassigned<br />

after the main round.<br />

Unassigned students from the main round are provided a list <strong>of</strong> programs with vacancies<br />

and are asked to rank up to twelve <strong>of</strong> these programs. In 2003-04, the admissions criteria at<br />

the remaining school seats were ignored in this Supplementary round. Students are ordered by<br />

their random number, and the student-proposing deferred acceptance algorithm is run with this<br />

ordering in place at each school. Students who remain unassigned in the supplementary round<br />

are assigned administratively. <strong>The</strong>se students and any appealing students are processed on a<br />

case-by-case basis in the over the counter round.<br />

8


3 Data and Sample Definitions<br />

<strong>The</strong> NYC DOE provided us with several data sets for this study each linked by a unique student<br />

identification number: information on student choices and assignments, student demographics,<br />

and October student enrollment. <strong>The</strong> assignment file is maintained by the Enrollment <strong>of</strong>fice<br />

(formerly known as the Office <strong>of</strong> Student Enrollment and Planning Operations), which runs<br />

high school admissions. For 2002-03, the assignment files records a student’s initial rank order<br />

list, their <strong>of</strong>fers and rejections for each round, whether they participate in the supplementary<br />

round process, and their final assignment at the conclusion <strong>of</strong> the assignment process as <strong>of</strong> July<br />

2003. For 2003-04, the assignment files contain students’ choice schools in order <strong>of</strong> preference,<br />

priority information for each school, and assignments at the end <strong>of</strong> each <strong>of</strong> the rounds, and<br />

final assignment as <strong>of</strong> early August 2004. <strong>The</strong> student demographic file for both years contains<br />

information on sending school, home address, gender, race, limited English pr<strong>of</strong>iciency, special<br />

education status, and performance on 7th grade citywide tests. We use ArcGIS to compute the<br />

road distance between each student and school, and ArcGIS with StreetMap USA to geocode<br />

each student to a census block group corresponding to her address. Though we use road distance,<br />

we also computed subway distance using the Metropolitan Transportation Authority GIS files;<br />

the overall correlation between driving distance and subway commuting distance for all studentprogram<br />

pairs is 0.96. Further details are in the Data Appendix.<br />

Our analysis sample makes two restrictions. First, since we do not have demographic information<br />

for private school applicants, we restrict the analysis to students in NYC’s public middle<br />

schools at baseline. Second, we focus on students who are not assigned to Specialized high schools<br />

because that part <strong>of</strong> the assignment process did not change with the new mechanism. Most students<br />

prefer a Specialized High <strong>School</strong> to a regular ones, limiting the potential for interaction<br />

with the main round to differentially influence assignments as the mechanism changed. Given<br />

these restrictions, we have two main analysis files: the mechanism comparison sample and the<br />

demand estimation sample.<br />

<strong>The</strong> mechanism comparison sample is used for comparisons <strong>of</strong> the assignment across the<br />

two mechanisms. This sample is the largest set <strong>of</strong> students assigned through the high school<br />

assignment mechanism to a school that exists as <strong>of</strong> the time <strong>of</strong> the printing <strong>of</strong> the high school<br />

directory. We do not include students assigned to schools which are created afterwards because<br />

we are not able to evaluate the welfare from those assignments using rankings made before<br />

they existed. Any non-private applicant in the OSEPO files who does not opt for their current<br />

school and is assigned is a member <strong>of</strong> the mechanism comparison sample in 2002-03 and 2003-04.<br />

Columns (1) and (2) <strong>of</strong> Table 1 summarize student characteristics in the mechanism comparison<br />

samples across years. 3,500 fewer students are involved in the mechanism comparison 2003-04<br />

sample, which is mainly due to the students assigned to schools created after the printing <strong>of</strong> the<br />

high school directory or to closed schools (as shown in Table B1).<br />

New York City is the nation’s largest school district, and like many urban districts it is majority<br />

low-income and non-white. Nearly three-quarters <strong>of</strong> students are black or Hispanic, and<br />

about 10% <strong>of</strong> students are Asian. Brooklyn is home to the largest number <strong>of</strong> applicants, followed<br />

by Bronx and Queens, which each account for roughly one quarter <strong>of</strong> students. Manhattan and<br />

9


Staten Island, areas with high private and parochial school penetration, account for a considerably<br />

smaller share <strong>of</strong> students about 13 and six percent, respectively. Student characteristics <strong>of</strong><br />

participants are similar across years, suggesting applicant attributes did not change substantially<br />

as a result <strong>of</strong> the new mechanism.<br />

<strong>The</strong> demand sample contains participants in the main round <strong>of</strong> the new mechanism in the<br />

assignment files. <strong>The</strong> school choices expressed by this group <strong>of</strong> students represent the overwhelming<br />

majority <strong>of</strong> students. Among the set <strong>of</strong> main round participants, we exclude a small<br />

fraction <strong>of</strong> students who are classified as the top 2 percent because these students are guaranteed<br />

a school only if they rank it first and this may distort their incentives to rank schools truthfully.<br />

Additional details on the sample restrictions are in the Data appendix. Table 1 also shows that<br />

the student characteristics are similar across the sample used for comparing mechanisms and<br />

demand samples with one exception. <strong>The</strong> fraction <strong>of</strong> students who are classified as receiving a<br />

subsidized lunch differs across years because we only have access to subsidized lunch as measured<br />

as <strong>of</strong> the 2004-05 school year. For this reason, we use census block group family income as a<br />

student demographic.<br />

Data on schools were taken from New York State report card files provided by NYC DOE.<br />

Information on programs come from the <strong>of</strong>ficial NYC High <strong>School</strong> Directories made available to<br />

students before the application process. Table 2 summarizes school and program characteristics<br />

across years. <strong>The</strong>re is an increase in the number <strong>of</strong> schools from 215 to 235, and a corresponding<br />

decrease in the average number <strong>of</strong> students enrolled per school <strong>of</strong> about 40 students. This fact is<br />

driven by the replacement <strong>of</strong> some large schools with smaller schools that took place concurrently<br />

in 2003-04 described above. Despite this increase, there is little change in the average achievement<br />

levels <strong>of</strong> schools and school demographic composition as measured by report card data. Moreover,<br />

slightly more than half <strong>of</strong> the teachers are classified as inexperienced – having taught for less<br />

than two years – a pattern which holds for both years.<br />

Students in New York can choose among roughly 600 programs throughout the city. <strong>The</strong><br />

menu <strong>of</strong> program choices is immense, and programs vary substantially in focus, post-graduate<br />

orientation, and educational philosophy. For instance, the Heritage <strong>School</strong> in Manhattan is an<br />

Educational Option school where the arts play a substantial role in learning, while Townsend<br />

Harris High <strong>School</strong> in Queens is a Screened program with a rigorous humanities program making<br />

it among the most competitive in the city. Using information from high school directories, we<br />

identify each program’s type, language orientation, and speciality. With the new mechanism,<br />

there are more Unscreened programs and fewer Educational Option programs, a change driven<br />

by the conversion <strong>of</strong> many Educational Option programs to Unscreened programs, given their<br />

overlapping admissions criteria. We code language-focused programs as Spanish, Asian, or Other,<br />

and categorize program specialities into Arts, Humanities, Math and Science, Vocational, or<br />

Other. Not all programs have specialties, though about 70% fall into one <strong>of</strong> these classes.<br />

(Details on our classification scheme are in the Data appendix). <strong>The</strong> menu <strong>of</strong> language program<br />

<strong>of</strong>ferings or program specialities changes little across years.<br />

Given the sudden announcement <strong>of</strong> the new mechanism and the similar student attributes<br />

across years, it seems reasonable that there was little scope for participants to react by either<br />

opting out or in to the mechanism. Likewise, it does not appear that there is a large change<br />

10


in the residential locations <strong>of</strong> students. <strong>The</strong> distribution <strong>of</strong> students throughout the city looks<br />

nearly identical to that in the new mechanism, shown in the map in Figure 1. Moreover, though<br />

there are relatively small changes in the set <strong>of</strong> school options, these mostly involve an increase<br />

in the number <strong>of</strong> Unscreened programs, and a decrease in the number <strong>of</strong> Educational Option<br />

programs, and these two program types are similar. <strong>The</strong>se facts together motivate our approach<br />

<strong>of</strong> using preference estimates from choices expressed in 2003-04 to measure student welfare from<br />

the final assignments in 2002-03, and to attribute those to changes in the assignment mechanism<br />

rather than changes in the attributes <strong>of</strong> student participants or the menu <strong>of</strong> school options.<br />

4 Descriptive Evidence on Mechanism Performance<br />

4.1 Distance, Exit, and Matriculation<br />

One <strong>of</strong> the most important characteristics <strong>of</strong> a student’s school assignment is how far away it<br />

is. Figure 2 reports the overall distribution <strong>of</strong> road distance travelled by students in both the<br />

uncoordinated and coordinated mechanism. New York City spans a large geographic range, with<br />

nearly 45 miles separating the southern tip <strong>of</strong> Staten Island with the northern most points <strong>of</strong> the<br />

Bronx, and 25 miles traveling from the western edge <strong>of</strong> Manhattan near Washington Heights to<br />

Far Rockaway at the easternmost tip <strong>of</strong> Brooklyn. 10 <strong>The</strong> closest school for a typical student is<br />

0.82 miles from home, and students in the uncoordinated mechanism on average travelled 3.36<br />

miles to their assignment. In the coordinated mechanism, the average distance is 4.05 miles.<br />

<strong>The</strong> medians also increase from 2.25 to 3.04 miles. <strong>The</strong> increase in distance due to a coordinated<br />

mechanism is consistent with the pattern in Niederle and Roth (2003)’s study <strong>of</strong> a new centralized<br />

match in the gastroentrology labor market. Mobility in their study is defined as the percentage<br />

<strong>of</strong> gastroenterology fellows who change hospitals (or cities or states) after finishing their previous<br />

training (usually in internal medicine) and starting the gastroenterology fellowship. <strong>The</strong>y report<br />

a centralized mechanism is associated with mobility increases at the hospital, city, and state<br />

level.<br />

<strong>The</strong> increase in distance to assignment suggests that the scope <strong>of</strong> the market increased under<br />

the coordinated mechanism, but it does not directly imply a statement about welfare. Table 3<br />

presents further information on distance and <strong>of</strong>fer processing under both mechanisms. In the<br />

uncoordinated mechanism, more students obtain their final assignment in the last round than in<br />

the first round. Panel A <strong>of</strong> the table shows that 36% <strong>of</strong> students are assigned over the counter,<br />

compared to 35% in the first round. Since 33,894 students obtain one or more first round <strong>of</strong>fers<br />

(shown in Panel B), but only 24,292 students were finalized in the first round, 9,602 students<br />

with a first round <strong>of</strong>fer were finalized as <strong>of</strong>fers were made in subsequent rounds. <strong>The</strong> processing<br />

<strong>of</strong> these students took place as schools revised <strong>of</strong>fers based on first round rejections and made<br />

<strong>of</strong>fers anew in the second and third round. However, the large fraction <strong>of</strong> students assigned in<br />

the over-the-counter round suggests that three rounds were not sufficient to process all students.<br />

Students who are <strong>of</strong>fered earlier are assigned to and enroll at schools that are further away<br />

than students who are assigned in the last round. This fact is unsurprising given that the<br />

10 Table S1 reports on the relationship between road distance and subway distance. With the exception <strong>of</strong><br />

Manhattan, the overwhelming majority <strong>of</strong> students are assigned to a school in the same borough as their residence.<br />

11


DOE’s explicit aim was to find space for over-the-counter students based on their residence.<br />

After receiving an assignment, a student may opt for a private school, leave New York, or even<br />

drop out. Families may switch schools after their final assignments are announced, but before the<br />

school year starts for a number <strong>of</strong> reasons including moving within the city. In the uncoordinated<br />

mechanism, principals had greater discretion to enroll students and the DOE <strong>of</strong>ficials quoted<br />

above alleged that students with sophisticated parents might just show up at a school in the<br />

fall and ask for a place. Based on exit and matriculation patterns, students assigned earlier<br />

appear less satisfied with their assignment than those assigned in earlier rounds. <strong>The</strong> fraction <strong>of</strong><br />

students who exit NYC public schools is 13.5% among over-the-counter placements, which is 5%<br />

greater than the fraction who exit in earlier rounds. More than a quarter <strong>of</strong> students assigned in<br />

the over-the-counter round who are still in NYC public schools matriculate at schools other than<br />

where they were assigned. By comparison, the take-up <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fered assignments is much higher for<br />

those assigned in the first three rounds.<br />

Panel B shows that roughly one-fifth <strong>of</strong> students obtained multiple <strong>of</strong>fers in the uncoordinated<br />

mechanism. Though not reported in the table, 73% <strong>of</strong> those with multiple <strong>of</strong>fers receive two <strong>of</strong>fers,<br />

22% <strong>of</strong> receive three <strong>of</strong>fers, 5% receive four <strong>of</strong>fers, and 64 applicants received <strong>of</strong>fers at all five<br />

<strong>of</strong> their schools. Since a student can take at most one <strong>of</strong> these <strong>of</strong>fer, these numbers imply that<br />

there were a total <strong>of</strong> 17,263 extra <strong>of</strong>fers made. Based on exit and matriculation, students with<br />

multiple <strong>of</strong>fers are more satisfied with their assignment than students with zero or one <strong>of</strong>fer.<br />

<strong>The</strong>se students also travel further to their final assignment or enrolled school.<br />

Table A1 shows that <strong>of</strong> the students who accept a first round <strong>of</strong>fer, about 71% take their<br />

most preferred ranked <strong>of</strong>fer. This fact implies that the majority <strong>of</strong> students who had multiple<br />

<strong>of</strong>fers did not necessarily benefit from having more than one option if their top option is their<br />

most preferred. Multiple <strong>of</strong>fers come at the cost <strong>of</strong> more than half <strong>of</strong> the applicants receiving<br />

no first round <strong>of</strong>fer. Though not reported, 58% <strong>of</strong> students without any <strong>of</strong>fer are assigned in<br />

the over-the-counter process. This fact explains why their assigned schools are closer, they are<br />

more likely to exit NYC public schools, and more likely to enroll at a school other than their<br />

assignment than students with one or more <strong>of</strong>fer.<br />

4.2 Offer Processing by Student Characteristics<br />

Students from across all demographic groups, boroughs, and baseline achievement categories<br />

travel further to their assigned school except in Manhattan (shown in Table 10). <strong>The</strong> increased<br />

distance for the student subgroups are close to the overall average increase in distance <strong>of</strong> 0.69<br />

miles. High math baseline and SHSAT test takers tend not to travel as far, while black students<br />

and those from the Bronx and Queens travel further.<br />

As we’ve seen, changes in distance are related to the fraction who are assigned in the overthe-counter<br />

process. Table 4 reports the attributes <strong>of</strong> students across rounds and number <strong>of</strong> first<br />

round <strong>of</strong>fers compared to the overall population <strong>of</strong> applicants in the uncoordinated mechanism<br />

(shown in column (1)). Students from Manhattan, those with high math baseline scores, and<br />

those who have taken the SHSAT tend to obtain <strong>of</strong>fers earlier in the uncoordinated admissions<br />

process. <strong>The</strong>y are overrepresented among students either finalized in the first round or who<br />

receive multiple first round <strong>of</strong>fers. For example, 30% <strong>of</strong> the students who receive multiple first<br />

12


ound <strong>of</strong>fers take the SHSAT compared to 22.4% overall. Students from Staten Island, students<br />

who are white, and those from high income neighborhoods tend to systematically obtain <strong>of</strong>fers<br />

later in the process. Compared to the overall population, these groups are overrepresented in the<br />

over-the-counter round. About a quarter <strong>of</strong> students in the over-the-counter process are white,<br />

compared to 15% <strong>of</strong> participants in the overall distribution. <strong>The</strong> differences in student attributes<br />

across rounds are not as pronounced with the coordinated mechanism. In the over-the-counter<br />

process, 22.8% <strong>of</strong> students are SHSAT takers compared to 24.6% in the main round and 16.0%<br />

are white compared to 12.6% in the main round. <strong>The</strong>se facts are consistent with coordinated<br />

assignment more equitably distributing school access across rounds for different student groups.<br />

4.3 Mismatch in Over-the-Counter Round<br />

Before turning to estimates <strong>of</strong> student preferences, we compare the attributes <strong>of</strong> schools ranked<br />

by students processed in each round to the attributes <strong>of</strong> the assigned school. This comparison<br />

indicates how students processed in the main, supplementary, and over-the-counter rounds fare<br />

relative to what they wanted according to their choices.<br />

Students who are processed in earlier rounds are assigned to schools that have attributes more<br />

similar to the schools they ranked than students processed in later rounds. Table 5 shows that<br />

for those assigned in the main round, with the exception <strong>of</strong> distance, ranked schools tend to have<br />

slightly better attributes than assignments in both mechanisms. Ranked schools have higher<br />

English and Math achievement, more four-year college-going, fewer inexperienced teachers, and<br />

higher attendance rates.<br />

For students placed in the supplementary round, assignments are even worse than ranked<br />

schools. In the uncoordinated mechanism, for instance, the gap high math achievement between<br />

ranked and assigned schools is 0.8 percentage points for those assigned in the main round, while<br />

it 2.5 points in the supplementary round. <strong>The</strong> gap between ranked and assigned alternatives<br />

in teacher experience and subsidized lunch peers also larger in the supplementary round than<br />

in the main round. Since students participate in the supplementary round if did not obtain a<br />

main round assignment, it is not surprising that these students are assigned to schools with less<br />

desirable characteristics.<br />

<strong>The</strong> most striking pattern in Table 5, however, is for students who are assigned in the overthe-counter<br />

round. We’ve already seen that there are three times more students assigned in this<br />

round in the uncoordinated mechanism and that these students are assigned to schools much<br />

closer to home than those in other rounds. Aside from distance, each over-the-counter student’s<br />

assignment is considerably worse than the schools they ranked. <strong>The</strong>re is a large gap between the<br />

English and Math achievement levels, college-going, teacher experience, subsidized lunch levels,<br />

and attendance <strong>of</strong> ranked schools compared to assigned ones in the uncoordinated mechanism.<br />

For instance, there is a 6.8 percentage point gap in English achievement between ranked and<br />

assigned schools in the uncoordinated mechanism, which corresponds to a 40% standard deviation<br />

reduction in this measure.<br />

<strong>The</strong> differences between ranked and assignments are also large in the coordinated mechanism,<br />

though in some cases, they are not as stark. Achievement differences between ranked and assigned<br />

schools are narrower: for English, it’s a 5.0 percentage point gap (compared to 6.8) and for Math,<br />

13


it’s 3.6 vs. 4.3. On the other hand, assigned schools are not as close to home in the coordinated<br />

mechanism, and all else equal, families prefer closer schools. <strong>The</strong>refore, it is not possible to<br />

assert whether the over-the-counter process was better or worse in the two mechanisms. What<br />

is clear is that being processed in the over-the-counter round is undesirable for students in both<br />

mechanisms. As a result, a significant fraction <strong>of</strong> the changes in student welfare will be driven by<br />

the large reduction in the number <strong>of</strong> students who enter this round in the coordinated mechanism.<br />

5 Measuring Student Preferences<br />

5.1 Student Choices<br />

What makes a families rank particular schools and where do they obtain information about school<br />

options? In surveys, parents state that academic achievement, school and teacher quality are the<br />

most important school characteristics (Schneider, Teske, and Marschall 2002). In NYC, families<br />

obtain information about high schools and programs from many sources. Guidance counselors,<br />

teachers, peers, and other families in the neighborhood all provide input and recommendations.<br />

<strong>The</strong> <strong>of</strong>ficial repository <strong>of</strong> information on high schools is the NYC High <strong>School</strong> directory, a booklet<br />

that includes information about school size, advanced course <strong>of</strong>ferings, Regents and graduation<br />

performance, as well as the school’s address, and closest bus and subway. <strong>The</strong> directory also<br />

includes a paragraph description <strong>of</strong> each program together with a list <strong>of</strong> extracurricular activities<br />

and sports teams. Families learn about schools at High school fairs that are held on Saturdays<br />

and Sundays in the fall in each borough, from individual school open houses, from online school<br />

guides such as insideschools.org, and from books about high schools such as Hemphill (2007).<br />

Finally, local newspapers such as the New York Post and New York Daily News regularly publish<br />

rankings <strong>of</strong> high schools, using publicly available information from the New York State Report<br />

Cards.<br />

Even though the school ranking decision involves evaluating many different alternatives, the<br />

aggregate distribution <strong>of</strong> preferences displays some consistent regularities: students prefer closer<br />

and higher quality schools as measured by student achievement levels, shown in Table 6. 11 <strong>The</strong><br />

first row <strong>of</strong> the table shows that 20% <strong>of</strong> applicants rank 12 school choices; the majority rank nine<br />

or fewer choices and nearly 90% rank at least three choices. <strong>The</strong> average student’s top choice<br />

is 4.43 miles away from home. Given that the closest school is on average 0.82 miles away, this<br />

means that students do not simply rank the school closest to home. An average student’s first<br />

choice is nearly 0.40 miles closer than her second choice, and her second choice is about 0.25 miles<br />

closer than her third choice. Even though other school characteristics change with distance, the<br />

distance to ranked school increases monotonically until the 9th choice, which is 5.65 miles away<br />

on average. <strong>The</strong> distance to the 10-12th choices is lower than the 9th choice, but since less than<br />

half <strong>of</strong> students rank 10 schools, this may be due to compositional changes.<br />

Lower ranked schools are not only farther away, but they also less desirable on other measures<br />

<strong>of</strong> school quality. We measure quality using the Regents performance information in the NYC<br />

11 Table A2 provides additional information on school assignments. 31.9% <strong>of</strong> students receive their top choice,<br />

15.0% receive their second choice, and 2.4% receive a choice ranked 10th, 11th, or 12th. 17.5% <strong>of</strong> students are<br />

asked to participate in the supplementary round because they are unassigned in the main round.<br />

14


High <strong>School</strong> directory, which comes from NY state report cards. <strong>The</strong> fraction <strong>of</strong> students scoring<br />

an 85 or higher on the English or Math Regents exam decreases going down rank order lists.<br />

<strong>The</strong> percent <strong>of</strong> students attending a four year college also decreases as we go down rank order<br />

lists, and the fraction <strong>of</strong> teachers classified as inexperienced increases. Finally, schools enrolling<br />

a higher share <strong>of</strong> white and Asian students tend to be ranked higher than schools with smaller<br />

shares <strong>of</strong> these student groups.<br />

Using requests for individual teachers, Jacob and Lefgren (2007) find that parents in low<br />

income and minority schools value a teacher’s ability to raise student achievement more than in<br />

high income and non-minority schools. This difference across groups motivates our investigation<br />

<strong>of</strong> ranking behavior by baseline ability and neighborhood income. Both high and low baseline students<br />

prefer schools that are closer to home, but first choices are closer for low baseline students.<br />

High achieving students also tend to rank schools with high English and Math achievement,<br />

relative to low achievers, though both groups place less emphasis on achievement with further<br />

down their preference list. Similarly, students from low income neighborhoods tend to put less<br />

weight on Math and English achievement than students from high income neighborhoods, but<br />

both groups rank higher achieving schools higher. <strong>The</strong>se differences suggest the importance <strong>of</strong><br />

allowing for tastes for school achievement to differ by baseline achievement and income groups.<br />

Based on their submitted preferences, all else equal, students prefer attending a school closer<br />

to home. <strong>The</strong> fact that students in the new mechanism are assigned to schools further from home<br />

might suggest that the new mechanism led to assignments that are worse on average than the<br />

old mechanism. On the other hand, students may prefer schools outside <strong>of</strong> their neighborhood<br />

because they are a better fit. We must therefore weigh the greater travel distance in the new<br />

mechanism against the attributes <strong>of</strong> the school. Students do not rank the closest school to their<br />

home and instead trade <strong>of</strong>f school attributes with proximity. Our next task is to quantify how<br />

students evaluate distance relative to school attributes such as size, demographic composition,<br />

and average achievement levels based on their submitted preferences.<br />

5.2 Model and Estimation Strategy<br />

<strong>The</strong> comparison <strong>of</strong> the attributes <strong>of</strong> first choices relative to later choices provides rich information<br />

to identify how a student trades <strong>of</strong>f these features <strong>of</strong> schools in her preferences. To quantify these<br />

trade<strong>of</strong>fs, we work with a random utility model. Let i index students, j index programs, and<br />

let s j denote the school housing program j. We model student i’s indirect utility for program j<br />

using the following specification:<br />

u ij = δ sj + ∑ l<br />

α l z l ix l j + γd ij + ε ij , with<br />

δ sj = x sj β + ξ sj ,<br />

where z i is the vector <strong>of</strong> student characteristics, x j is a vector <strong>of</strong> program j’s characteristics, d ij<br />

is distance between student i’s home address and the address <strong>of</strong> program j, ξ sj is a school-specific<br />

unobserved vertical characteristic, and ε ij captures random fluctuations tastes via draws from an<br />

extreme value type-I distribution with variance normalized to π2<br />

6<br />

. Since students rank programs,<br />

it is natural to specify utility in terms <strong>of</strong> programs. However, we write the mean utility δ sj only<br />

15


in terms <strong>of</strong> school attributes since a program’s type and speciality are the only features that do<br />

vary within schools.<br />

This demand specification allows us to exploit the unusually large number <strong>of</strong> school and<br />

student characteristics and the student rank order lists in the micro data. Each model contains<br />

234 school fixed effects for each <strong>of</strong> the 235 schools, where one is dropped for our normalization. To<br />

take advantage <strong>of</strong> these characteristics, we estimate models with a large number <strong>of</strong> interactions,<br />

where each student characteristic is interacted with each school characteristic, and the logit<br />

functional form provides a parsimonious way to sidestep the need for numerical integration<br />

because we can write the probabilities in closed form. <strong>The</strong> logit assumption also comes with<br />

the Independence <strong>of</strong> Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA) property, which implies that if the choice<br />

set changes, the relative likelihood <strong>of</strong> ranking any two schools does not change. Most <strong>of</strong> our<br />

counterfactual exercises compare two different allocations by aggregating utilities for two different<br />

assignments. Our aim is to best fit the utilities <strong>of</strong> students given their observable characteristics.<br />

Unlike applications which relax the IIA property (Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes 1995, Berry,<br />

Levinsohn, and Pakes 2004), we are not interested in predicting the consequences <strong>of</strong> changing<br />

prices or attributes for a given individual. In our setting, there are also relatively modest changes<br />

in the set <strong>of</strong> school options across years.<br />

In our preferred models, we do not explicitly include an outside option and instead normalize,<br />

without loss <strong>of</strong> generality, the value <strong>of</strong> δ for an arbitrarily chosen school to zero. This assumption<br />

is motivated by our primary interest in studying the allocation within inside options rather than<br />

substitution outside <strong>of</strong> the NYC public school system. As we describe below, we also find the<br />

behavioral implications <strong>of</strong> an outside option in rank order lists that do not rank all 12 alternatives<br />

unappealing. Indeed, the IIA property implies that our estimates would not change had we<br />

observed the actual rank <strong>of</strong> the outside option.<br />

<strong>The</strong> demand sample contains rankings <strong>of</strong> 69,907 participants in 2003-04 over 497 programs<br />

in 235 schools, representing a total <strong>of</strong> 542,666 school choices. We start by building a likelihood<br />

function assuming that choices are truthful before examining this assumption in detail. This<br />

assumption implies that student i ranks programs in order <strong>of</strong> the indirect utility she derives from<br />

the programs. We assume that all unranked schools are less preferred to all ranked schools. Let r i<br />

be the rank order list submitted by student i in our demand sample, with |r i | ≤ 12 denoting the<br />

length <strong>of</strong> the agent’s list and r ik denoting the kth choice. Let θ = (α, γ, δ) denote the parameters<br />

<strong>of</strong> interest. Given θ and our logit assumption, the likelihood that student i submits rank order<br />

list r i is:<br />

)<br />

L (θ|r i , z i , X, D i ) = Π |r i|<br />

k=1<br />

(u P irik > max u ij |θ, z i , x j , D i<br />

j∈J\∪ l


students ranking programs is much larger than the number <strong>of</strong> programs, the estimation error in<br />

δ is negligible compared to the error in β due to sample variance in the set <strong>of</strong> observed schools.<br />

6 Preference Estimates and Model Fit<br />

Our specifications follow other models <strong>of</strong> school demand and include average school test scores<br />

and racial attributes as characteristics (see, e.g., Hastings, Kane, and Staiger (2005)). <strong>The</strong>re are,<br />

<strong>of</strong> course, many school features influencing choices that we do not observe. <strong>The</strong>refore, unlike<br />

these earlier models, we include additive school fixed effects to capture school-level unobservables.<br />

As we have seen above, the distance to a school is an important dimension accounting for<br />

choices, so all demand models control for distance. We do not include more flexible controls<br />

for distance because it serves as our numeraire relative to which we measure the value <strong>of</strong> other<br />

school characteristics and a unit for welfare in the counterfactuals. In each specification, we also<br />

include three program type dummies and ten program speciality dummies. 12 <strong>The</strong> categorization<br />

<strong>of</strong> programs into specialities is described in the Data appendix.<br />

6.1 Demand Estimates<br />

Table 7 reports estimates for six specifications <strong>of</strong> our demand model. <strong>The</strong> first specification has<br />

school effects and 14 additional parameters (program specialty dummies, program type dummies,<br />

distance, and school characteristics). <strong>The</strong> school characteristics are size <strong>of</strong> 9th grade, percent<br />

white, attendance rate, percent subsidized lunch, and the Regents math performance. <strong>The</strong> second<br />

specification adds 34 parameters by interacting school characteristics with student racial<br />

characteristics. <strong>The</strong> third specification interacts a enrollment, attendance rate, and math performance<br />

with student baseline achievement. <strong>The</strong> next three specifications include interactions<br />

between all student demographics (gender, race, Special Ed, Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient), math<br />

and English baseline achievement, and the school characteristics. We also include dummies for<br />

Spanish, Asian and Other Language Program, interacting these dummies with a student’s LEP<br />

status and whether they are Hispanic or Asian. This model has 349 parameters. We report three<br />

variations <strong>of</strong> this specification: using only the top ranked school, using only the top three ranked<br />

schools, and using all ranked schools. Since these specifications include many interactions, we<br />

only report a subset <strong>of</strong> coefficients, and present all <strong>of</strong> the estimates in Table C1.<br />

All else equal, students prefer schools closer to home. This fact can be seen by the negative<br />

coefficient, -0.31, on distance in the first specification in Table 7. As we add interactions, the<br />

estimate on distance is remarkably stable. Consistent with the patterns in Table 6, the size<br />

<strong>of</strong> this coefficient relative to the other coefficients also implies that distance has an important<br />

weight on choices relative to other attributes. <strong>The</strong> estimate <strong>of</strong> size <strong>of</strong> 9th grade or percent white<br />

implies that students are willing to travel for larger schools and for schools with more whites.<br />

Students also prefer schools with higher attendance rates, fewer subsidized lunch students, and<br />

higher math performance.<br />

12 <strong>The</strong> program type dummies are Unscreened, Screened, and Educational Option. <strong>The</strong> program specialty<br />

dummies are Arts, Humanities/Interdisciplinary, Business/Accounting, Math/Science, Career, Vocational, Government/Law,<br />

Other, Zoned, and General.<br />

17


Many interaction terms in columns (2)-(4) are significantly estimated and have the expected<br />

signs. For instance, students with high baseline math scores tend to prefer schools with higher<br />

attendance rates and high math performance more than those with low baseline scores. <strong>The</strong><br />

psuedo-R 2 indicates the fraction <strong>of</strong> variation in utility we can explain with observables. Though<br />

many <strong>of</strong> these interaction terms are significantly estimated, they do not lead to a large improvement<br />

the our psuedo-R 2 relative to the model without interactions. <strong>The</strong> psuedo-R 2 increases<br />

from 0.85 in column (1) to 0.92 in column (4). Thus, after accounting for distance, the school<br />

and program fixed effects, there are still unobserved components <strong>of</strong> student tastes.<br />

Aside from comparisons with the distance coefficient and the significance levels, the magnitude<br />

<strong>of</strong> the estimates in Table 7 are hard to directly interpret. We’d like to know, in particular,<br />

about the extent <strong>of</strong> student-level preference heterogeneity based on the estimates. In Table 8, we<br />

report on some simple summary measures <strong>of</strong> heterogeneity using the estimates from the model<br />

with interactions between school characteristics and student demographics and school characteristics<br />

and student baseline achievement reported in column (4) <strong>of</strong> Table 7. For each student<br />

group, we compute the distance-equivalent utility in miles from each school program by substituting<br />

student and school characteristics into our preference estimates. For this calculation,<br />

we ignore the unobserved taste shock, ɛ ij , and normalize the average utility for students in a<br />

category, net <strong>of</strong> distance, across programs to be zero. <strong>The</strong> first four columns report the average<br />

value split by quartile, while the last column reports the range from top to bottom quartile.<br />

Relative to the average across all students, Asian and white students are willing to travel<br />

more for schools than black and Hispanics. This fact can be seen in Panel A in column (5), where<br />

the willingness to travel to go from a top to bottom quartile school is a distance-equivalent <strong>of</strong><br />

11.00 and 11.93 miles for Asians and whites, while it is 8.56 and 8.40 for blacks and Hispanics,<br />

respectively. Similarly, high math baseline students exhibit greater willingness to travel for<br />

schools than low math baseline students. In a model without student level heterogeneity, the<br />

range across quartiles for rows split by race or by baseline achievement would be identical to the<br />

first row.<br />

<strong>The</strong> remaining panels <strong>of</strong> Table 8 report on willingness to travel for quartiles <strong>of</strong> school attributes.<br />

As before, we compute the distance-equivalent utility in miles, normalizing the mean<br />

utility to zero within student category. High math baseline students exhibit more spread in their<br />

valuation <strong>of</strong> high-achieving schools than low baseline students. Students from richer neighborhoods<br />

exhibit also more spread in their valuation <strong>of</strong> the percent <strong>of</strong> peers obtaining subsidized<br />

lunches. Finally, Asian and white students exhibit greater taste variation in school percent white<br />

than blacks and Hispanics. Each comparison reported here indicates that observable dimensions<br />

<strong>of</strong> student preference heterogeneity estimated from our demand model are important role in our<br />

welfare calculations.<br />

6.2 Assessing the Behavioral Assumptions<br />

Treating submitted rankings truthful, as in the estimates in the first four columns <strong>of</strong> Table 7, is<br />

a natural starting point and apparently generates sensible patterns. It is a benchmark because<br />

<strong>of</strong> the straightforward incentive properties <strong>of</strong> the mechanism and the advice that the NYC DOE<br />

provides in the 2003-04 High <strong>School</strong> Directory and in their information and outreach campaign.<br />

18


For instance, the DOE guide advises participants to “rank your twelve selections in order <strong>of</strong><br />

your true preferences” with the knowledge that “schools will no longer know your rankings.”<br />

Nonetheless, truthful behavior is a strong assumption worth investigating for a number <strong>of</strong> reasons.<br />

A first issue is whether students are deliberately ranking schools, given that there may be<br />

substantial frictions involved in evaluating roughly 500 school programs. Kling, Mullainathan,<br />

Shafir, Vermuelen, and Wrobel (2012), for instance, document “comparison frictions” in the<br />

evaluation <strong>of</strong> different Medicare Part D prescription drug plans. <strong>The</strong> choice between a vast<br />

number <strong>of</strong> school programs may be daunting and as a result, some may simply randomly list<br />

choices, especially further down their rank order list. If preferences were generated in this way<br />

by a large fraction <strong>of</strong> participants, then we’d expect that most <strong>of</strong> our point estimates to be<br />

imprecisely estimated or have unintuitive patterns, but they do not. Another way to see that<br />

choices matter for participants is to examine enrollment decisions by choice. Table A3 reports<br />

assignment and enrollment decisions for students who are assigned in the main round. <strong>The</strong><br />

table shows that 92.7% <strong>of</strong> students enroll in their assigned choice, and this number varies from<br />

88.4% to 94.5% depending on which choice a student receives. Interestingly, take-up is higher<br />

for students who receive lower ranked choices, while the fraction <strong>of</strong> students who exit is highest<br />

among students who obtain one <strong>of</strong> their top three choices. This fact suggests that either families<br />

are indifferent between later choices and simply enroll where they obtain an <strong>of</strong>fer or families have<br />

deliberately investigated later choices and are therefore willing to enroll in lower ranked schools.<br />

If families are more uncertain about lower ranked choices, then using information contained<br />

in all submitted ranks may provide a misleading account <strong>of</strong> student preferences. <strong>The</strong> last two<br />

columns <strong>of</strong> Table 7 present demand estimates using only the top and top three ranked schools.<br />

<strong>The</strong>se smaller samples use only 13% and 36% <strong>of</strong> the submitted choices, so they discard much <strong>of</strong><br />

the data set. Despite this, the coefficient on distance is similar across these two models and the<br />

one using all submitted ranks. Many <strong>of</strong> the interaction terms have similar signs to column (4),<br />

but as expected, they are estimated less precisely. On balance, the pattern <strong>of</strong> estimates shows<br />

remarkable consistency.<br />

<strong>The</strong> second issue with the assumption <strong>of</strong> truthful preferences is that students can rank at<br />

most 12 programs on school applications. When a student is interested in more than 12 schools,<br />

she has to carefully reduce her choice set down to at most 12 schools. If a student is only<br />

interested in 11 or fewer schools, this constraint in principle should not influence her ranking<br />

behavior (Abdulkadiroğlu, Pathak, and Roth 2009, Haeringer and Klijn 2009). It is a weakly<br />

dominant strategy to add an acceptable school to a rank order list as long as there is room for<br />

additional schools in the application form. However, 20.3% <strong>of</strong> students in our demand sample<br />

rank 12 schools. Some <strong>of</strong> these students may drop highly sought-after schools from top <strong>of</strong> their<br />

choice lists because <strong>of</strong> this constraint.<br />

To probe how restrictions on number <strong>of</strong> choices influence our preference estimates, Table A4<br />

report estimates dropping students ranking 12 choices from the sample. Despite the change in<br />

the composition <strong>of</strong> students, there is little change in our preference estimates. <strong>The</strong> coefficients<br />

on distance and school main effects are nearly identical with those in column (4), implying that<br />

the 12 choice constraint is unlikely to significantly alter our conclusions.<br />

Another concern with treated submitted rankings as truthful is that parents rank schools<br />

19


using heuristics carried over from the previous system. Despite the theoretical motivation and the<br />

DOE’s advice, parents might still deviate from truth-telling for reasons related to misinformation<br />

or lack <strong>of</strong> information about the new mechanism. Table A2 shows that students are more likely<br />

to be assigned their last choice than their penultimate choice. This pattern may be caused by<br />

strategic behavior if students apply to schools that they like and, as a safety option, rank a school<br />

in which they have a higher chance <strong>of</strong> admissions last. However, it may also be fully consistent<br />

with truth-telling. For example, students usually obtain borough priority or zone priority for<br />

schools in their neighborhoods. Ranking these schools improves their likelihood <strong>of</strong> being assigned<br />

to these schools in case they are rejected by their higher choices. If students consider applying and<br />

commuting to schools further away from their neighborhood for reasons like math and English<br />

achievement, they may as well stop ranking schools below their neighborhood schools once such<br />

considerations no longer justify the cost <strong>of</strong> commute. This preference pattern would produce the<br />

assignment pattern observed in the data. Column (3) in Table A4 presents estimates dropping<br />

the last choice <strong>of</strong> applicants; the coefficients on distance and school effects are nearly identical<br />

to column (1), implying that the possibility <strong>of</strong> strategically ranking safety schools seems unlikely<br />

to alter our conclusions.<br />

Finally, our approach avoids use <strong>of</strong> rank order lists to identify the value <strong>of</strong> the outside option<br />

relative to NYC public schools. <strong>The</strong> primary reason is that it that our counterfactuals exercises<br />

focus on the re-allocation <strong>of</strong> NYC public schools. However, one may be worried about bias in our<br />

estimates from this assumption. If ranking additional acceptable schools is cognitively costless,<br />

it may be appropriate to assume that unranked schools are worse than the outside option. Two<br />

facts suggest this is not true: the typical student ranks 9 out <strong>of</strong> 649 programs and 72.9% <strong>of</strong><br />

students who are participate in the supplementary round enroll at the school they are assigned<br />

in that round (shown in Table A3). Column (4) <strong>of</strong> Table A4 reports estimates <strong>of</strong> models only<br />

using information about the order <strong>of</strong> choices among ranked alternatives. We assume that when a<br />

student does not rank a school, that fact does not contain any information about their preferences:<br />

the school could either be ranked above an applicant’s top choice or below it. Our models, so<br />

far, treat ranked schools as more preferred than unranked schools. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the<br />

estimates from this model are considerably different than our other specifications. In particular,<br />

the importance <strong>of</strong> distance and school main effects are not comparable to the other specifications.<br />

<strong>The</strong> psuedo-R 2 is only 0.60 and the model fit is worse. As a result, the information on what<br />

schools are ranked or not ranked is important for our preference estimates.<br />

Ignoring the outside option does not yield biased estimates if the value <strong>of</strong> outside option is<br />

unrelated to preferences for inside options or if number <strong>of</strong> ranked schools is unrelated to the<br />

value <strong>of</strong> outside option. <strong>The</strong>se assumptions may not be satisfied, so the last column <strong>of</strong> Table A4<br />

reports estimates with an outside option, where we normalize the value <strong>of</strong> the outside option to<br />

zero. <strong>The</strong> IIA assumption implies that estimates should not be sensitive to the specification <strong>of</strong><br />

the outside option assumed to be preferred to all unranked schools. Consistent with this, the<br />

estimates are close to those shown in column (1). However, all <strong>of</strong> the school effects are less than<br />

0, implying that students prefer the outside option (i.e. not a NYC public school) to unranked<br />

schools. This unappealing implication contradicts the high take-up <strong>of</strong> public schools among our<br />

students.<br />

20


6.3 Model Fit<br />

An important necessary condition for using our preference estimates to make welfare statements<br />

is that they account for main moments <strong>of</strong> data. Figure 3 plots the predicted market shares<br />

<strong>of</strong> each program, computed using our preference estimates in column (4) <strong>of</strong> Table 7, against<br />

the program’s actual market share on a log scale. Market share is defined as the fraction <strong>of</strong><br />

students who rank a program anywhere on their rank order list. We compute predicted market<br />

shares by drawing the top 12 programs from the estimated preference distribution 100 times for<br />

each student and taking the average for each program. <strong>The</strong> figure shows a strong correlation<br />

between the two measures, an encouraging phenomenon likely driven by the presence <strong>of</strong> school<br />

fixed effects and the large number <strong>of</strong> student and school interactions. However, this relationship<br />

is not mechanical since the parameters are not estimated by inverting the fraction <strong>of</strong> students<br />

ranking a program first (Berry 1994). <strong>The</strong> single set <strong>of</strong> school fixed effects used to explain the<br />

rankings could have resulted in a poor fit.<br />

Another way to assess within-sample fit is to see what our estimates imply for the aggregate<br />

patterns by rank in Table 6. In Table 9, we use the estimates to compute the distribution <strong>of</strong><br />

preferences and aggregate them into cells corresponding to those reported in Table 6. Comparing<br />

the ranked program to the overall distribution <strong>of</strong> school characteristics, shown in the first column,<br />

the preference estimates capture many features <strong>of</strong> the distribution <strong>of</strong> preferences, though the<br />

estimated trade<strong>of</strong>fs in school attributes going down rank order lists is sometimes not as steep<br />

as what is observed. For instance, for first choices, school’s fraction high math achievement is<br />

14.9, while it drops to 13.8 for last choices. In the our sample, the corresponding range is 16.7<br />

to 10.4. Relative to the average attributes <strong>of</strong> schools, the model fit is much closer to the actual<br />

ranked distribution. <strong>The</strong> average distance to a high school in New York is 12.3 miles away from<br />

home, yet the top ranked school is 4.4 miles away. Moreover, the average percent white in New<br />

York’s schools is 10.8, but first choices are 19.1 white, while we predict them to be 17.4. Each<br />

predictions is closer to the actual properties <strong>of</strong> ranked schools than the aggregate distribution.<br />

<strong>The</strong> attributes <strong>of</strong> the schools ranked and what we predict using our demand estimates are<br />

relatively close, especially for choices from three to ten. <strong>The</strong>re are more significant differences<br />

between the prediction and actual choices for the top two choices. For instance, we predict<br />

that the average first choice is 5.1 miles away, while it is 4.4 miles away in the data. It is<br />

worth noting that a student’s closest school is 0.82 miles away, so our predictions are far better<br />

than a behavioral model where students simply rank their closest school first. <strong>The</strong> drop in<br />

predictive accuracy for the last three choices is probably driven by changes in the composition <strong>of</strong><br />

students who submit long rank order lists. Nonetheless, the model appears to capture the trend<br />

in preferences going down rank order lists.<br />

We next relate our estimated taste parameters to information that we have not used for<br />

estimating the distribution <strong>of</strong> preferences in an out-<strong>of</strong>-sample test. In Table 10, we regress<br />

indicators <strong>of</strong> exit and school matriculation, shown earlier, on our estimates <strong>of</strong> the observable<br />

components <strong>of</strong> student i’s utility for her assignment. This is an out-<strong>of</strong>-sample test because<br />

neither exit or matriculation decisions are used in estimation. Let y i indicate whether a student<br />

exits NYC public schools or does not exit, but enrolls in a school other than her assigned one.<br />

21


We fit equations like:<br />

y i = λû ia + γd ia + z i β + ɛ i ,<br />

where û ia is student i’s expected utility for program assignment a expressed in miles, d ia is the<br />

distance to assigned school, and z i represents the student demographic and baseline achievement<br />

measures in the demand model. Since distance is a key aspect <strong>of</strong> student preferences, we compare<br />

whether our imputed utility (which uses the submitted rankings) provides additional information<br />

beyond distance for the exit or matriculation decisions, conditional on student attributes.<br />

<strong>The</strong> estimates in column (1) show that if students obtain greater utility (measured in miles)<br />

for their assignment, they are less likely to exit in the coordinated mechanism. This pattern is<br />

reassuring since the demand estimates come from the main round <strong>of</strong> the coordinated mechanism,<br />

but we have not used information on the exit decision in estimation. Distance to school has no<br />

additional predictive power for the exit decision beyond the controls for student attributes in<br />

column (2). Matriculation is also negatively related to the utility from assignment in Panel B,<br />

while distance exhibits the opposite pattern. <strong>The</strong> magnitude <strong>of</strong> an increase distance is smaller<br />

than the magnitude <strong>of</strong> an decrease in estimated utility (in miles) on exit.<br />

An even more demanding comparison considers what our estimates imply for data from the<br />

uncoordinated mechanism. This comparison is more demanding because it uses data on preferences<br />

fitted from the coordinated mechanism to look at an out-<strong>of</strong>-sample decision in the uncoordinated<br />

mechanism for an entirely different student sample. It is reassuring that the relationship<br />

between utility, exit and matriculation is similar those reported using this distinct data from the<br />

uncoordinated mechanism. Just as with the coordinated mechanism, student exit is negatively<br />

related to a student’s utility from their assigned school, and the utility measure has a larger<br />

weight than distance. <strong>The</strong> magnitude <strong>of</strong> the estimate for predicting matriculation is similar to<br />

that in the coordinated mechanism. This out-<strong>of</strong>-sample comparison suggests that our preference<br />

estimates may be suitable for understanding the utility associated with the assignments in the<br />

uncoordinated mechanism.<br />

7 Comparing Mechanisms<br />

7.1 Measuring <strong>Welfare</strong><br />

<strong>The</strong> preference estimates in the last section allow us to compare the assignments produced by the<br />

uncoordinated and coordinated mechanisms, assuming that the preference estimates for students<br />

in the coordinated mechanism are similar to the underlying estimates in the uncoordinated<br />

mechanism. Since we do not observe the same student in both the uncoordinated and coordinated<br />

mechanism, it is necessary to make statements about groups <strong>of</strong> students rather than particular<br />

individuals.<br />

Consider a group <strong>of</strong> students with attribute G and a matching µ, which specifies the program<br />

for each student as µ(i), where if student i is unassigned µ(i) = i. Define the average welfare as<br />

a function <strong>of</strong> parameters θ as<br />

W µ G (θ) = 1 ∑<br />

u<br />

|G| iµ(i) (θ) ,<br />

i∈G<br />

22


which is the per-student average <strong>of</strong> the utilitarian welfare criterion for group G. For two different<br />

matchings, µ and µ ′ , corresponding set <strong>of</strong> students in group G(µ) and G(µ ′ ), the estimate <strong>of</strong> the<br />

welfare difference between the two matchings is given by:<br />

W µ µ′<br />

G<br />

(θ) − W<br />

G (θ) = 1<br />

|G(µ)|<br />

∑<br />

i∈G(µ)<br />

u iµ(i) (θ) −<br />

1<br />

|G(µ ′ )|<br />

∑<br />

i∈G(µ ′ )<br />

u iµ ′ (i) (θ) .<br />

Notice that the welfare difference depends only on the utility differences between the inside<br />

options at θ. <strong>The</strong>refore, when we compare the uncoordinated and coordinated mechanism, we<br />

normalize the utilities so that the mean utility for all students in the coordinated mechanism is<br />

zero.<br />

Furthermore, since no unassigned students are in the welfare samples, it is not necessary to<br />

impute a value to these students. As a result, our comparisons may understate the total welfare<br />

from the the new assignment system because it is only an intensive margin calculation and<br />

does not include the difference in exit rates that we described earlier. We are able to, however,<br />

assess the effects <strong>of</strong> the non-compliance by students who switched schools post-assignment using<br />

imputed utilities from the October enrollment in the subsequent school year. 13<br />

To operationalize our welfare comparisons, it is necessary to confront the fact that the precise<br />

allocation system used in the old mechanism cannot be easily simulated. To compute the welfare<br />

<strong>of</strong> the assignment, we need to calculate the utility conditional on a student being assigned to<br />

a given school program. This utility may differ from the utility given only observed student<br />

characteristics because <strong>of</strong> the unobserved taste term ɛ ij . A student’s submitted ranking reveals<br />

information about unobserved tastes. It is therefore necessary to model and account for this<br />

selection issue in our welfare calculations.<br />

In the coordinated mechanism, we observe the rankings submitted by students. Under the<br />

assumption that these reports are truthful, a program ranked kth yields the kth highest utility.<br />

For students in the coordinated mechanism who submit rank order list r i , we calculate the<br />

expected utility for each ranked choice and each unranked choice by simulating the utility from<br />

the estimated preference distribution, conditional on the relationships implied by the submitted<br />

ranks (see Appendix A for details on this calculation).<br />

<strong>The</strong> old mechanism’s uncoordinated nature makes the relationship between preferences and<br />

the final assignments less straightforward. Computing the expected utility conditional on the assignments<br />

requires strong assumptions about the old mechanism. Our approach exploits rankings<br />

from the uncoordinated mechanism’s first round. Such data is rarely available for in uncoordinated<br />

mechanisms, but are also difficult to interpret because <strong>of</strong> incentive properties <strong>of</strong> the system<br />

under which they were submitted. To avoid asymmetries in the welfare comparisons between<br />

mechanisms, we assume that the ranked school in the old mechanism are reported truthfully and<br />

all unranked schools are less preferred to ranked schools. This assumption is likely provides an<br />

optimistic case for the students that are assigned to a program to which they applied. 14 It is also<br />

safe to assume that students assigned in the supplementary or over-the-counter round do not<br />

13 <strong>The</strong> data tell us school a student is enrolled in, but not the program. If the assigned school is identical to the<br />

enrolled school, we assume that the enrolled program remains the same. For students switching to new schools,<br />

we use the program-size weighted mean as the utility measure.<br />

14 We also examined an alternative weaker assumption that schools ranked in the uncoordinated mechanism<br />

23


prefer those assignments to ones they applied to since they could have instead applied to those<br />

schools in the main round (and those schools were in fact available). Indeed, Table 5 makes clear<br />

that those schools have less desirable attributes.<br />

For both mechanisms, we compute the expected utility <strong>of</strong> a program ranked kth by student<br />

i as<br />

[<br />

E u ij<br />

| u (k+1)<br />

i<br />

]<br />

< u ij < u (k−1)<br />

i<br />

, r ik = j<br />

and the expected utility for all unranked schools as<br />

[<br />

]<br />

E u ij | u ij < u (|r i|)<br />

i<br />

, j ∉ ∪{r ik } , (2)<br />

where u (k)<br />

i<br />

is the kth highest value <strong>of</strong> {u ij } J j=1 and |r i| is the number <strong>of</strong> ranks submitted by<br />

student i. 15 Using these values, the welfare difference for group G from assignments µ and µ ′ is<br />

W µ G − W µ′<br />

G = 1<br />

|G(µ)|<br />

∑<br />

i∈G(µ)<br />

E[u iµ(i) |r i ] −<br />

1<br />

|G(µ ′ )|<br />

∑<br />

i∈G(µ ′ )<br />

E[u iµ ′ (i)|r i ],<br />

where E[u ij |r i ] denotes the conditional expectations in equations (1) and (2) above.<br />

7.2 <strong>Welfare</strong> across Mechanisms<br />

Most students are better <strong>of</strong>f under the coordinated mechanism. Figure 4 plots the overall distribution<br />

<strong>of</strong> student welfare from the two mechanisms. On average, students benefit by a distanceequivalent<br />

utility <strong>of</strong> 4.79 miles from the new mechanism. <strong>The</strong>re is a bimodal pattern <strong>of</strong> utility<br />

in the uncoordinated mechanism due to the students who are assigned in the over-the-counter<br />

round. Most <strong>of</strong> the mass in the first mode shifts rightward in the coordinated mechanism, given<br />

the sharp reduction in the number <strong>of</strong> over-the-counter students.<br />

Table 11 reports on welfare differences for the same student groups that we reported on <strong>of</strong>fer<br />

processing. For each student group, there is a positive gain from the new mechanism. Across<br />

racial groups, the gains are similar, with whites and Hispanics improving slightly more than<br />

blacks and Hispanics. <strong>The</strong>re are sharper differences across boroughs. Students from Staten<br />

Island, Queens, and the Bronx gain the most, while the smallest gain <strong>of</strong> any student group in<br />

the table comes from Manhattan residents. Low baseline math students gain more than high<br />

baseline math students or SHSAT test takers.<br />

One aspect <strong>of</strong> evaluating an assignment system is understanding whether initially bad allocation<br />

systems are undone post-assignment through aftermarket retrading. This view, sometimes<br />

associated with Coase (1960), implies that greater flexibility to switch assignments in the uncoordinated<br />

mechanism could undo the deleterious effects <strong>of</strong> initial assignments. To examine<br />

this possibility, we also compute the utility associated with the schools students enroll at in<br />

October <strong>of</strong> the following school year. Compared to assignments, the gains from the coordinated<br />

are better than those that are not ranked, but we did not utilize information on the ordering within ranked<br />

alternatives. Consistent with evidence on the importance <strong>of</strong> what is ranked vs. unranked, the welfare estimates<br />

under this assumption are similar to those we report.<br />

15 We do not observe applications for some students, and some choices are not available in the main round. In<br />

these cases, we impute the mean utility conditional on observables alone in the welfare calculations.<br />

(1)<br />

24


mechanism measured by enrollment are somewhat smaller, but are still large. For instance, the<br />

average student benefits by a distance-equivalent utility <strong>of</strong> 3.99 miles, which is 83% <strong>of</strong> the gain<br />

from assignments. <strong>The</strong> change in travel distance to enrolled school is also lower than the change<br />

in travel distance to assignment. About 0.3 <strong>of</strong> the 0.8 miles difference is due to this reduction<br />

in travel distance. Though a smaller gain from enrollment suggests that some <strong>of</strong> the old mechanism’s<br />

mismatch was undone in its aftermarket, these facts weigh against the argument that<br />

post-market reallocation will undo a large fraction <strong>of</strong> misallocation.<br />

Comparing the change in utility to the change in distance, it is possible to measure how<br />

much more match-specific utility students obtain from the coordinated mechanism. On average,<br />

the newly assigned school is equal to 5.53 miles <strong>of</strong> distance-equivalent utility. This implies that<br />

the improved school match is worth about eight times the costs associated with increased travel<br />

distance. <strong>The</strong> lowest gains are for Manhattan residents, a group which experiences no increase<br />

in travel distance. However, the welfare gains are not solely driven by changes in distance.<br />

For instance, across boroughs, Staten Island pupils only travel 0.34 miles further, but they<br />

experience the largest improvement <strong>of</strong> any borough at 6.32 miles. This suggests that mismatch<br />

was particularly severe in Staten Island, and is consistent with the substantially larger fraction<br />

<strong>of</strong> Staten Island residents who are assigned in the over-the-counter round in the uncoordinated<br />

mechanism. <strong>The</strong> important role <strong>of</strong> match-specific utility suggests that even if there are not<br />

enough good schools to assign everyone their top choice, preference heterogeneity generates an<br />

important role for matching mechanisms.<br />

<strong>The</strong> new mechanism has improved measures <strong>of</strong> equity <strong>of</strong> assignment. For instance, welfare<br />

gains are larger for low baseline math students than high baseline math students. <strong>The</strong>y are<br />

also higher for special education and limited English pr<strong>of</strong>icient students than SHSAT test-takers.<br />

<strong>The</strong>se differences within student groups closely track the rounds in which students were processed<br />

in the uncoordinated mechanism. For instance, substantially more high baseline students were<br />

assigned in the main round <strong>of</strong> the old mechanism compared to low baseline students. In many<br />

instances, student groups with higher fractions assigned in the over-the-counter round, shown in<br />

column (7), experience the largest gains. This may explain why there is relatively little difference<br />

between students who are either from rich or poor neighborhoods. Wealthier students may have<br />

been more effective at navigating the old mechanism. However, Staten Island residents, many<br />

who are white, experience the largest welfare gains, and Staten Island’s neighborhood income<br />

levels are higher on average than other parts <strong>of</strong> the city.<br />

We’ve already seen evidence for mismatch among those assigned over-the-counter in Table 5.<br />

Another way to examine the important role <strong>of</strong> over-the-counter assignments by further disaggregating<br />

students. We estimate a probit <strong>of</strong> whether a student is assigned over-the-counter on all<br />

student characteristics in the demand model. We also include census tract dummies to account<br />

for neighborhoods that may or may not have local high schools serving as student fallback. Given<br />

the large number <strong>of</strong> dummies, we are able to forecast whether a student is locally assigned with<br />

a high degree <strong>of</strong> accuracy. We then use this estimated relationship to compute each student’s<br />

propensity to be assigned over-the-counter in both the uncoordinated and coordinated mechanism.<br />

For each decile <strong>of</strong> this propensity, we compare the utility from assignment across both<br />

mechanisms. Figure 5 shows that distance to assignment is relatively unchanged across these ten<br />

25


student deciles. However, there is a clear monotonic pattern between over-the-counter propensity<br />

and the welfare improvement, whether comparing utility differences including distance or net <strong>of</strong><br />

distance.<br />

<strong>The</strong> facts clearly illustrate that the reduction in the number <strong>of</strong> over-the-counter round participants<br />

drive the welfare gains in the coordinated mechanism. But why were so many students<br />

assigned in that round in the old mechanism? <strong>The</strong>re are at least two features <strong>of</strong> the old mechanism<br />

that could generate this phenomenon. First, students are not able to rank more than five<br />

choices, so large numbers <strong>of</strong> unassigned indicate that students were not successful at calibrating<br />

their rankings to ensure acceptance at one <strong>of</strong> their five choices. In the coordinated mechanism,<br />

12.6% <strong>of</strong> students were assigned to choices 6-12 (shown in Table A2). Second, there are 17,263<br />

“extra” <strong>of</strong>fers in the first round, but only about 10,000 students finalized in the second and third<br />

rounds. This means that many <strong>of</strong> these extra <strong>of</strong>fers did not percolate through to other students.<br />

Both multiple <strong>of</strong>fers and short rank order lists in the uncoordinated mechanism interact<br />

to generate over-the-counter placements.<br />

8 Evaluating Mechanism Design Features<br />

Many <strong>of</strong> the new mechanism’s features were intended to address issues created by the old mechanism.<br />

Among the difficulties <strong>of</strong> the old mechanism its few rounds <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fer processing, multiple<br />

<strong>of</strong>fers, and poor student and school incentives. A single-<strong>of</strong>fer mechanism based on the studentproposing<br />

deferred acceptance algorithm coordinates <strong>of</strong>fers and simplifies the student ranking<br />

problem. Is the allocation produced by the new mechanism the best possible one or would alternatives<br />

have further improved overall student welfare? <strong>The</strong> alternatives we consider hold here<br />

fixed the set <strong>of</strong> schools and students, but change the allocation mechanism.<br />

<strong>The</strong> cardinalization <strong>of</strong> utility implied by our demand model allows us to compute student<br />

welfare maximum, by finding the assignment that maximizes the sum <strong>of</strong> student utility subject<br />

the feasibility constraints <strong>of</strong> the assignment. This program corresponds to the utilitarian optimal<br />

assignment ignoring school priorities and can be computed following Shapley and Shubik<br />

(1971). 16 We first draw complete student preference lists randomly conditional on submitted<br />

ranks, taking 1,000 draws from the distribution conditional on the observed ranks. We then<br />

compute the utilitarian optimal assignment for each draw.<br />

With this aggregate welfare maximizing level <strong>of</strong> utility as our benchmark, the first question<br />

we ask is how does the allocation produced by the current mechanism compares to this maximum.<br />

We compute assignments from the student-proposing deferred acceptance algorithm using<br />

stated preferences and a single tie-breaking rule 1,000 times. To avoid imputing a welfare to<br />

unassigned, if a student in the demand sample is left unassigned, we use their preferences to<br />

mimic NYC’s supplementary round, by assigning them under a serial dictatorship according to<br />

the random ordering <strong>of</strong> students. Student preferences for this round use the simulated ranks<br />

from the estimated model. Following the computation for the optimal assignment, the welfare<br />

calculation includes the effect <strong>of</strong> unobservable taste components ɛ ij conditional on their student<br />

16 <strong>The</strong> utilitarian allocation implies equal weights on students; in quasi-linear problems, such an allocation would<br />

be synonymous with the Pareto efficient allocation, but need not be here.<br />

26


ank (as described in Appendix A).<br />

<strong>The</strong> first column <strong>of</strong> Table 12 shows that the allocation produced by the new mechanism is 2.85<br />

miles from the maximum achievable only respecting feasibility. Relative to the difference between<br />

the uncoordinated and coordinated mechanism <strong>of</strong> 4.79 miles, this contrast implies that further<br />

improvements in the matching mechanism could at best be equal to 59% <strong>of</strong> gain from coordinating<br />

assignment. <strong>The</strong> utilitarian optimal assignment is an idealized benchmark, but is unlikely to<br />

be achieved given that it requires a cardinal mechanism and completely ignores the schools’<br />

priorities. <strong>The</strong>re are 208 screened programs in New York City in 2003-04, so implementing<br />

this allocation would involve overriding the preferences <strong>of</strong> these programs. It is also possible<br />

that students would express different rank orderings under a mechanism that implements the<br />

utilitarian outcome. <strong>The</strong>refore, we consider another alternative that does not completely abandon<br />

school priorities.<br />

<strong>The</strong> student-proposing deferred acceptance (DA) algorithm produces a stable matching,<br />

which cannot be blocked by a student and school. <strong>The</strong> presence <strong>of</strong> ties in school’s ranking<br />

<strong>of</strong> students, however, means that DA does not produce a student-optimal stable matching, even<br />

though it would if all school preferences are strict. However, a number <strong>of</strong> authors have pointed<br />

out that deferred acceptance cannot be improved upon without sacrificing strategy-pro<strong>of</strong>ness for<br />

students (Erdil and Ergin 2008, Abdulkadiroğlu, Pathak, and Roth 2009, Kesten 2010, Kesten<br />

and Kurino 2012).<br />

We quantify the cost <strong>of</strong> providing straightforward incentives for students by computing a<br />

student-optimal stable assignment that improves the DA assignment by assigning students higher<br />

in their choice lists, while respecting stability for strict school priorities. Such an assignment can<br />

be computed by the stable improvement cycles (SIC) algorithm developed by Erdil and Ergin<br />

(2008), which iteratively finds Pareto improving swaps for students, while still respecting the<br />

stability requirement for underlying weak priority ordering <strong>of</strong> schools. A total <strong>of</strong> 2,348 students<br />

in the demand sample can obtain a better assignment in a student-optimal stable matching, and<br />

this corresponds to an average difference <strong>of</strong> 2.74 miles <strong>of</strong> equivalent utility with the utilitarian<br />

optimal assignment. <strong>The</strong> benefit <strong>of</strong> a student-optimal stable matching corresponds to a difference<br />

<strong>of</strong> 0.11 miles relative to the current student-proposing deferred acceptance algorithm. <strong>The</strong> cost<br />

<strong>of</strong> this change is that the underlying mechanism is not based on a strategy-pro<strong>of</strong> algorithm. 17<br />

Another way to relax the constraints imposed in the algorithm is to abandon stability all<br />

together. While no stable mechanism eliminates strategic maneuvers by schools (Sönmez 1997),<br />

this may not be an issue in markets with many participants (Kojima and Pathak 2009). Stability<br />

may therefore be seen as an incentive constraint on the assignment mechanism to deal with<br />

strategic schools. 18 If a mechanism does not produce a stable outcome, it is possible that schools<br />

benefit by <strong>of</strong>fering students seats outside <strong>of</strong> the assignment process. Despite the SIC-outcome<br />

being student-optimal stable, it is not Pareto efficient for students. We quantify the cost <strong>of</strong><br />

providing school incentives by computing a Pareto efficient assignment that improves upon the<br />

student-optimal stable assignment by assigning students higher in their choice lists. A Pareto<br />

17 Azevedo and Leshno (2011) provide an example where the equilibrium assignment <strong>of</strong> the stable improvement<br />

cycles mechanism is Pareto inferior to the assignment from deferred acceptance when students are strategic.<br />

18 Balinski and Sönmez (1999) and Abdulkadiroğlu and Sönmez (2003) provide an alternative equity rationale<br />

for stability.<br />

27


efficient assignment can be found by transferring students from their assigned schools to their<br />

higher ranked choices via the Gale’s Top Trading Cycles algorithm (Shapley and Scarf 1974).<br />

Consequently, we calculate a Pareto efficient matching which dominates each student-optimal<br />

stable matching we simulate and estimate students’ utilities from this Pareto efficient matching<br />

in column (3) <strong>of</strong> Table 12. A total <strong>of</strong> 10,882 students obtain a more preferred assignment at a<br />

Pareto efficient matching, which is 2.24 miles away for each student from the utilitarian optimal<br />

assignment. Relative to the current mechanism, the cost <strong>of</strong> limiting the scope for strategizing<br />

by schools (by imposing stability) is 0.50 miles per student. Both the “cost <strong>of</strong> strategy-pro<strong>of</strong>ness<br />

for students” and the “cost <strong>of</strong> stability” are smaller than the “benefit <strong>of</strong> coordination” in the new<br />

mechanism.<br />

<strong>The</strong> finding that changes to the matching algorithm are smaller than changes associated with<br />

coordinating assignment informs a debate in a related auction market design context. Klemperer<br />

(2002) argued that “most <strong>of</strong> the extensive auction literature is <strong>of</strong> second-order importance for<br />

practical auction design,” and that “good auction design is mostly good elementary economics.”<br />

Although our conclusion is not as pessimistic for matching market design, our exercises shows<br />

that even if it were possible to implement a student-optimal stable matching or Pareto efficient<br />

matching, coordinating admissions produces larger gains.<br />

9 Conclusion<br />

Changes in NYC’s high school assignment system provide a unique opportunity to study the<br />

effects <strong>of</strong> centralizing and coordinating school admissions with detailed data on preferences,<br />

assignments, and enrollment from both mechanisms. <strong>The</strong> new coordinated mechanism is an<br />

improvement relative to the old uncoordinated mechanism on a variety dimensions. Relative to<br />

the uncoordinated mechanism, there is 7.2 percentage point increase in matriculation at assigned<br />

school. Multiple <strong>of</strong>fers and short rank order lists in the uncoordinated mechanism advantage few<br />

students and leave many without first round <strong>of</strong>fers. A large fraction <strong>of</strong> these unassigned students<br />

are placed in the over-the-counter round to schools with considerably worse characteristics than<br />

what they ranked. <strong>The</strong> increase in matriculation is driven by the three times reduction in the<br />

number <strong>of</strong> students assigned in the over-the-counter process in the coordinated mechanism.<br />

Our demand estimates show that Asians, whites, high math baseline and students from high<br />

income neighborhoods are willing to travel further for good schools. While the coordinated<br />

mechanism assigns students 0.69 miles further to their assignments, it’s easier for students to<br />

obtain the schools they want. <strong>The</strong> benefit <strong>of</strong> being assigned through the new mechanism is equal<br />

eight times the cost <strong>of</strong> additional travel according to our preferred estimates. <strong>The</strong> gains are<br />

positive on average for students from all boroughs, demographic groups, and baseline achievement<br />

categories. <strong>Welfare</strong> improvements are also seen whether utility is measured based on assignments<br />

made at the end <strong>of</strong> the high school match or based on subsequent enrollment, suggesting that<br />

post-match re-allocation does little to undo the market’s design.<br />

<strong>The</strong> new mechanism increased the equity <strong>of</strong> access to school choices, since students who were<br />

relatively more effective at navigating the uncoordinated mechanism gained less than students<br />

who were more likely to be processed in its over-the-counter round. Though gains are widespread,<br />

28


low math baseline students and those from Queens and Staten Island benefit more than SHSAT<br />

test-takers and students from Manhattan. Since a shortage <strong>of</strong> good schools implies that some will<br />

inevitably be assigned to less desirable schools, preference heterogeneity generates a significant<br />

role for a good assignment mechanism to generate allocative efficiencies.<br />

Our study <strong>of</strong> the new mechanism utilizes rankings submitted in its first year. Though we have<br />

examined several variations to the behavioral assumptions underlying our estimation strategy,<br />

it is possible that we’ve underestimated the long run performance <strong>of</strong> the new mechanism if<br />

participants alter their behavior as they learn more about how to navigate the process. After the<br />

first year, communication and outreach efforts increased via expanded school open houses and<br />

citywide high school fairs. <strong>School</strong>s have also gained more experienced with the new process. For<br />

instance, the DOE has reduced the number <strong>of</strong> students assigned over-the-counter by providing<br />

guidance on yield management, calibrating <strong>of</strong>fers based on expectations <strong>of</strong> attrition.<br />

<strong>The</strong> increase in student welfare from the new mechanism illustrates that there are considerable<br />

frictions to exercising choice in poorly designed assignment systems. <strong>The</strong> 2003 NYC change<br />

took place in an environment where participants already had some familiarity with choice since<br />

both the uncoordinated and coordinated system had a common application. <strong>The</strong> most important<br />

differences between the two mechanisms involved eliminating multiple <strong>of</strong>fers and allowing<br />

participants to submit longer rank order lists. We found that these features left many assigned<br />

in an over-the-counter process at schools with significantly worse attributes than where they<br />

would prefer to be placed. <strong>The</strong>se effects are relevant for settings where existing choice processes<br />

have been coordinated and streamlined, such as in London and Denver, two cities which recently<br />

adopted new mechanisms based on deferred acceptance.<br />

In other cities, the welfare gains may be even larger since school assignment processes are even<br />

more uncoordinated and decentralized than NYC’s old HS system. For instance, Boston’s charters<br />

only recently established a unified application timeline, but they still retain school-by-school<br />

admissions and <strong>of</strong>fers, and almost no coordination <strong>of</strong> waitlists and enrollment. With the exception<br />

<strong>of</strong> Denver and New Orleans, this situation is the norm across district and charter schools.<br />

However, discussions about unifying admissions and coordinating enrollment are currently under<br />

consideration in cities including Boston, Chicago, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington DC<br />

(Darville 2013, Vaznis 2013). <strong>The</strong> NYC evidence suggests that students stand much to gain<br />

from making it easier to apply. However, the relative value <strong>of</strong> policies such as common timelines,<br />

a common application, single vs. multiple <strong>of</strong>fers, sophisticated matching algorithms, and good<br />

information and decision aids remains an open question.<br />

Finally, it’s worth emphasizing that our analysis has focused on the allocative aspects <strong>of</strong><br />

school choice and different school assignment procedures. An important question is whether<br />

allocative changes contribute to changes in the productive dimensions <strong>of</strong> assignment. That is,<br />

do different student assignment protocols affect levels <strong>of</strong> student achievement post-assignment?<br />

This far more difficult question requires understanding the link between choices and the education<br />

production function, but we hope to examine it further in future work.<br />

29


Table 1. Characteristics <strong>of</strong> Student Sample<br />

Mechanism Comparison<br />

Demand Estimation<br />

Uncoordinated <strong>Coordinated</strong> <strong>Coordinated</strong><br />

Mechanism Mechanism Mechanism<br />

(1) (2) (3)<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> Students 70,358 66,921 69,907<br />

Female 49.4% 49.0% 49.0%<br />

Bronx 23.7% 23.3% 23.7%<br />

Brooklyn 31.9% 34.1% 33.3%<br />

Manhattan 12.5% 11.8% 12.0%<br />

Queens 25.0% 24.8% 24.7%<br />

Staten Island 6.9% 6.0% 6.3%<br />

Asian 10.6% 10.9% 10.6%<br />

Black 35.4% 35.7% 35.7%<br />

Hispanic 38.9% 40.4% 40.3%<br />

White 14.7% 12.6% 13.0%<br />

Other 0.4% 0.4% 0.4%<br />

Subsidized Lunch* 54.0% 63.1% 63.7%<br />

Neighborhood Income 38,360 37,855 37,920<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient 13.1% 12.6% 12.6%<br />

Special Education 8.2% 7.9% 7.5%<br />

SHSAT Test-­‐Taker 22.4% 24.3% 23.9%<br />

Notes: Uncoordinated mechanism refers to 2002-­‐03 mechanism and coordinated mechanism refers to the 2003-­‐04 mechanism based on <br />

deferred acceptance. Subsidized lunch not available pre-­‐assignment and comes from enrolled students as <strong>of</strong> 2004-­‐05 school year. <br />

Neighborhood income is mean census block group family income from the 2000 census. SHSAT stands for Specialized High <strong>School</strong> Achievement <br />

Test.


Table 2. Descriptive Statistics for <strong>School</strong>s and Programs<br />

Uncoordinated Mechanism<br />

<strong>Coordinated</strong> Mechanism<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4)<br />

A. <strong>School</strong>s<br />

Number 215 235<br />

High English Achievement 19.1 (17.3) 19.3 (17.4)<br />

High Math Achievement 10.2 (13.5) 10.0 (13.4)<br />

Percent Attending Four Year College 47.8 (25.2) 47.2 (25.5)<br />

Fraction Inexperienced Teachers 54.7 (26.8) 55.6 (27.4)<br />

Percent Subsidized Lunch 62.5 (23.0) 62.6 (22.9)<br />

Attendance Rate (out <strong>of</strong> 100) 85.5 (6.0) 85.7 (6.0)<br />

Percent Asian 8.7 (11.4) 8.6 (11.2)<br />

Percent Black 38.5 (24.2) 38.4 (24.1)<br />

Percent Hispanic 41.9 (22.7) 42.1 (22.8)<br />

Percent White 10.9 (16.5) 10.9 (16.4)<br />

B. Programs<br />

Number 612 558<br />

Screened 233 208<br />

Unscreened 63 119<br />

Education Option 316 119<br />

Spanish Language 27 24<br />

Asian Language 10 9<br />

Other Language 6 7<br />

Arts 80 80<br />

Humanities 89 93<br />

Math and Science 53 60<br />

Vocational 55 59<br />

Other Specialties 163 162<br />

Notes: Panel A reports means in column (1) and standard deviations in column (2), unless otherwise noted. Panel B reports counts. Uncoordinated mechanism refers to 2002-­‐<br />

03 mechanism and coordinated mechanism refers to the 2003-­‐04 mechanism based on deferred acceptance. Data appendix presents information on the availability <strong>of</strong> school <br />

characteristics. High Math and High English achievement is the fraction <strong>of</strong> student that scored more than 85% on the Math A and English Regents tests in New York State <br />

Report Cards, respectively. Inexperienced teachers are those that have taught for less than two years.


Table 3. Offer Processing across Mechanisms<br />

Distance to <strong>School</strong> (in miles) Exit from NYC Public In NYC Public, but at <br />

Number <strong>of</strong> Students <strong>Assignment</strong> Enrollment <strong>School</strong>s <strong>School</strong> Other than <br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)<br />

A. Uncoordinated Mechanism -­‐ By Final <strong>Assignment</strong> Round<br />

Overall 70,358 3.36 3.50 8.5% 18.6%<br />

First Round 24,292 4.22 4.10 5.2% 9.5%<br />

Second Round 5,861 4.50 4.40 4.8% 11.3%<br />

Third Round 4,461 4.35 4.25 4.9% 14.1%<br />

Supplementary Round 10,170 4.61 4.37 7.8% 25.4%<br />

Over-­‐the-­‐Counter Round 25,574 1.61 2.09 13.5% 27.4%<br />

B. Uncoordinated Mechanism -­‐ By Number <strong>of</strong> First Round Offers<br />

No Offers 36,464 2.80 3.12 10.4% 24.4%<br />

One Offer 21,328 3.89 3.85 7.1% 13.8%<br />

Many Offers 12,566 4.07 4.03 5.7% 9.8%<br />

C. <strong>Coordinated</strong> Mechanism -­‐ By Final <strong>Assignment</strong> Round<br />

Overall 66,921 4.05 3.91 6.4% 11.4%<br />

Main Round 54,577 4.02 3.86 6.1% 9.9%<br />

Supplementary Round 5,201 5.10 4.90 4.8% 10.4%<br />

Over-­‐the-­‐Counter Round 7,143 3.50 3.52 9.6% 23.6%<br />

Notes: Columns (2) -­‐ (5) report means. Uncoordinated mechanism refers to 2002-­‐03 mechanism and coordinated mechanism refers to the 2003-­‐04 mechanism based on deferred <br />

acceptance. Student distance calculated as road distance using ArcGIS. <strong>Assignment</strong> is the school assigned at the conclusion <strong>of</strong> the high school assignment process. Enrollment is <br />

the school a student enrolls in October following application. Assigned student exits New York City if they are not enrolled in any NYC public high school in October following <br />

application. Student in NYC Public, but at school other than assigned if enrolled in NYC public high school other than that assigned at end <strong>of</strong> match. Final assignment round is the <br />

round during which an <strong>of</strong>fer to the final assigned school first made.


Table 4. Offer Processing by Student Characteristics<br />

<strong>Coordinated</strong> Mechanism<br />

Final <strong>Assignment</strong> Round<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> First Round Offers<br />

All First Second Third<br />

Supplementar<br />

y<br />

Over the<br />

Counter None One Many<br />

Main<br />

Supplementa<br />

ry<br />

Over the<br />

Counter<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)<br />

Students 70,358 24,292 5,861 4,461 10,170 25,574 36,464 21,328 12,566 54,577 5,201 7,143<br />

Female 49.4 52.1 52.4 51.0 48.9 46.1 47.1 51.4 52.7 49.4 48.8 46.8<br />

Bronx 23.7 24.1 26.0 34.7 33.2 17.1 23.6 24.6 22.6 23.3 20.0 25.3<br />

Brooklyn 31.9 32.6 34.4 30.6 35.9 29.4 29.8 33.8 34.9 34.7 35.0 29.0<br />

Manhattan 12.5 19.3 14.2 13.7 16.6 3.7 8.5 14.7 19.9 11.4 11.2 15.2<br />

Queens 25.0 21.7 24.2 20.3 14.4 33.4 27.0 23.8 21.3 24.1 31.9 25.2<br />

Staten Island 6.9 2.2 1.3 0.8 0.0 16.4 11.1 3.1 1.2 6.5 1.8 5.2<br />

Asian 10.6 10.3 9.7 9.2 4.0 14.0 11.0 10.0 10.6 11.0 10.3 10.5<br />

Black 35.4 38.6 40.0 37.7 45.2 27.1 32.1 38.6 39.6 35.6 40.1 33.5<br />

Hispanic 38.9 40.9 39.4 43.5 46.5 33.0 37.8 39.4 41.2 40.5 41.0 39.1<br />

White 14.7 9.8 10.5 9.3 3.8 25.5 18.6 11.7 8.3 12.6 8.2 16.0<br />

High Baseline Math 24.0 29.4 23.6 30.4 12.3 22.5 19.3 26.9 32.7 24.5 15.5 21.2<br />

Low Baseline Math 22.5 21.1 25.0 19.9 30.8 20.5 23.6 22.4 19.5 20.6 19.6 25.4<br />

Subsidized Lunch* 54.0 57.8 57.9 59.5 57.6 47.0 51.7 55.7 57.5 63.4 59.7 63.4<br />

Bottom Neighborhood<br />

Income Quartile<br />

24.1 27.6 27.5 27.9 38.8 13.4 21.6 26.0 27.9 25.1 23.2 25.7<br />

Top Neighborhood Income<br />

Quartile<br />

25.8 21.9 23.5 21.7 14.4 35.3 29.0 23.7 20.1 24.6 23.8 27.3<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient 13.1 12.4 13.2 12.2 14.8 13.2 14.1 11.8 12.4 12.7 12.3 12.7<br />

Special Education 8.2 6.3 7.8 6.2 10.6 9.5 9.8 6.6 6.2 6.9 0.0 20.8<br />

SHSAT Test‐taker 22.4 27.8 26.6 34.3 15.9 16.8 17.5 26.2 30.0 24.6 22.9 22.8<br />

Notes: Uncoordinated mechanism refers to 2002‐03 mechanism and coordinated mechanism refers to the 2003‐04 mechanism based on deferred acceptance. Final assignment round is the round during which an <strong>of</strong>fer to the final assigned school was accepted.<br />

Subsidized lunch not available pre‐assignment and comes from enrolled students as <strong>of</strong> 2004‐05 school year. Neighborhood income is median family income from the 2000 census.


Table 5. <strong>School</strong> Access across Rounds <strong>of</strong> Offer Processing<br />

Main Round<br />

Supplementary Round<br />

Over-­‐the-­‐Counter Round<br />

Uncoordinated <strong>Coordinated</strong> <br />

Uncoordinated <br />

Uncoordinated <strong>Coordinated</strong> <br />

Mechanism Mechanism<br />

Mechanism <strong>Coordinated</strong> Mechanism<br />

Mechanism Mechanism<br />

Ranked <br />

Ranked <br />

Ranked <br />

Ranked <br />

Ranked <br />

Ranked <br />

<strong>School</strong>s Assigned <strong>School</strong>s Assigned <strong>School</strong>s Assigned <strong>School</strong>s Assigned <strong>School</strong>s Assigned <strong>School</strong>s Assigned<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)<br />

Distance (in miles) 4.81 4.29 5.10 4.00 4.87 4.59 5.87 5.17 5.12 1.60 5.33 3.43<br />

High English Achievement 21.0 20.3 22.1 19.1 19.9 15.8 26.5 20.0 24.2 17.4 24.2 19.2<br />

High Math Achievement 12.4 11.6 13.0 10.7 11.8 9.3 16.6 14.2 14.8 10.5 14.3 10.7<br />

Percent Attending Four Year College 49.1 47.1 50.6 48.3 48.6 44.9 54.1 50.1 51.9 46.7 51.7 47.9<br />

Percent Inexperienced Teachers 45.3 45.7 46.6 43.8 46.0 41.5 45.3 36.9 41.8 39.3 47.8 42.1<br />

Percent Subsidized Lunch 59.9 60.5 57.6 56.7 62.0 61.8 53.5 51.0 53.8 50.3 57.2 53.1<br />

Attendance Rate (out <strong>of</strong> 100) 85.1 84.6 85.7 83.8 85.1 82.2 87.4 83.2 85.8 80.7 86.7 82.9<br />

Notes: Means unless otherwise noted. Analysis restricts the sample to students from the welfare sample with observed assignments. Uncoordinated mechanism refers to the 2002-­‐03 mechanism <br />

and coordinated mechanism refers to the 2003-­‐04 mechanism based on deferred acceptance. Main round in the uncoordinated mechanism corresponds to the first round. Rankings used are <br />

those submitted in the main round <strong>of</strong> the process. Student distance calculated as road distance using ArcGIS. High English and High Math achievement are the fractions <strong>of</strong> students scoring over <br />

85% on the English and Math A regents in New York State Report Cards, respectively. Inexperienced teachers are those who have been teaching less than 2 years.


Table 6. <strong>School</strong> Characteristics by Rank <strong>of</strong> Student Choice in <strong>Coordinated</strong> Mechanism<br />

Choice 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th<br />

A. All Students<br />

Students Ranking Choice 69,907 93% 89% 83% 76% 69% 62% 56% 50% 43% 34% 20%<br />

Distance in Miles ‐ Mean 4.43 4.81 5.05 5.21 5.38 5.49 5.59 5.63 5.65 5.58 5.43 5.12<br />

Median 3.51 3.95 4.20 4.37 4.57 4.63 4.72 4.77 4.78 4.71 4.59 4.24<br />

High English Achievement 27.8 25.6 24.3 23.2 22.2 21.4 20.8 20.5 19.9 19.4 19.1 18.6<br />

High Math Achievement 16.7 15.3 14.7 13.9 13.4 12.8 12.4 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.8 10.4<br />

Percent Attending Four Year College 53.7 54.1 52.8 51.7 50.9 50.1 49.3 49.3 49.0 48.3 47.6 47.5<br />

Fraction Inexperienced Teachers 43.0 43.8 45.0 46.2 47.1 48.1 48.7 49.5 49.5 50.2 49.9 49.9<br />

Fraction Subsidized Lunch 51.4 53.4 54.5 56.2 57.4 58.7 59.8 60.6 61.3 61.9 62.7 63.1<br />

Attendance Rate (out <strong>of</strong> 100) 87.2 86.7 86.4 86.1 85.9 85.7 85.5 85.5 85.2 85.0 84.8 84.5<br />

Percent Asian 13.8 13.7 13.3 12.7 12.2 11.5 11.0 10.6 10.1 9.7 9.5 9.4<br />

Percent Black 32.6 34.3 35.1 36.0 36.7 37.5 38.2 38.4 38.7 38.9 38.9 38.1<br />

Percent Hispanic 34.4 35.2 35.9 37.0 37.9 38.9 39.6 40.2 40.8 41.5 42.2 43.5<br />

Percent White 19.1 16.7 15.7 14.4 13.3 12.2 11.2 10.8 10.4 9.8 9.4 9.0<br />

B. Students with Low Baseline Math Scores<br />

Distance in Miles ‐ Mean 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.8<br />

High English Achievement 20.1 19.4 18.7 18.4 18.1 17.9 17.6 17.7 17.4 17.1 16.6 16.6<br />

High Math Achievement 10.9 10.9 10.5 10.1 10.0 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.8<br />

C. Students with High Baseline Math Scores<br />

Distance in Miles ‐ Mean 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 5.8 5.3<br />

High English Achievement 39.4 34.0 32.0 29.8 28.0 26.4 25.2 24.6 23.7 22.8 22.5 21.5<br />

High Math Achievement 26.0 21.4 20.5 19.1 18.2 17.3 16.4 15.6 15.2 14.2 13.9 12.8<br />

D. Students from Bottom Neighborhood Income Quartile<br />

Distance in Miles ‐ Mean 4.3 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.7<br />

High English Achievement 20.5 19.8 19.1 18.8 18.4 17.9 18.0 18.0 17.5 17.1 17.1 16.6<br />

High Math Achievement 11.4 10.9 10.5 10.4 10.1 9.9 10.0 9.9 9.6 9.3 9.1 8.7<br />

E. Students from Top Neighborhood Income Quartile<br />

Distance in Miles ‐ Mean 4.6 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 6.1 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.6 6.4 5.9<br />

High English Achievement 35.6 32.0 29.9 28.4 26.5 25.6 24.6 23.9 23.1 22.4 21.6 21.0<br />

High Math Achievement 23.3 20.7 19.6 18.7 17.7 16.8 16.0 15.1 15.0 14.1 13.2 12.7<br />

Notes: <strong>Coordinated</strong> mechanism refers to the 2003‐04 mechanism based on deferred acceptance. Data appendix provides details on availability on school characteristics. Student distance calculated as road<br />

distance using ArcGIS. High English and High Math achievement are the fractions <strong>of</strong> students scoring over 85% on the English and Math A regents in New York State Report Cards, respectively. Inexperienced<br />

teachers are those who have been teaching less than 2 years. High baseline math students score above the 75th percentile for 7th grade middle school math, low baseline math students score below the 25th<br />

percentile. Neighborhood income is median family income from the 2000 census.


Table 7. Student Preference Estimates<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Demographics<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x <strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Baseline Achievement<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Baseline <br />

Specifications: <strong>School</strong> Characteristics Student Race Achievement<br />

All Choices Top Choice Only Top Three Choices<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)<br />

A. Preference for Distance<br />

Distance (in miles) -­‐0.318*** -­‐0.313*** -­‐0.316*** -­‐0.310*** -­‐0.387*** -­‐0.353***<br />

B. Preference for <strong>School</strong> Characteristics<br />

Size <strong>of</strong> 9th Grade (in 100s)<br />

Main effect 0.015*** 0.040*** 0.015*** 0.059*** 0.100*** 0.099***<br />

Baseline Math 0.004*** 0.001** 0.002 0.001<br />

Baseline English -­‐0.006*** -­‐0.003*** -­‐0.009*** -­‐0.005***<br />

Subsidized Lunch* -­‐0.014*** -­‐0.029*** -­‐0.024***<br />

Neighborhood Income (in 1000s) -­‐0.650*** -­‐1.930*** -­‐1.930***<br />

Special Education -­‐0.007*** -­‐0.017*** -­‐0.012***<br />

Percent White<br />

Main effect 0.026*** 0.040*** 0.025*** 0.032*** 0.040*** 0.033***<br />

Asian -­‐0.016*** -­‐0.015*** -­‐0.027*** -­‐0.018***<br />

Black -­‐0.022*** -­‐0.020*** -­‐0.035*** -­‐0.024***<br />

Hispanic -­‐0.011*** -­‐0.009*** -­‐0.016*** -­‐0.010***<br />

Attendance Rate<br />

Main effect 0.055*** 0.103*** 0.062*** 0.075*** 0.131*** 0.117***<br />

Baseline Math 0.012*** 0.010*** 0.017*** 0.015***<br />

Baseline English 0.014*** 0.014*** 0.020*** 0.021***<br />

Subsidized Lunch* 0.000 -­‐0.008*** -­‐0.005***<br />

Neighborhood Income (in 1000s) 6.000*** 8.000*** 7.000***<br />

Percent Subsidized Lunch<br />

Main effect -­‐0.002*** -­‐0.007*** -­‐0.003*** -­‐0.004*** 0.005*** -­‐0.003**<br />

Asian 0.000 -­‐0.001 -­‐0.004*** -­‐0.001<br />

Black 0.002*** 0.001** -­‐0.008*** -­‐0.002***<br />

Hispanic 0.010*** 0.009*** 0.007*** 0.010***<br />

Subsidized Lunch* 0.000 -­‐0.002** -­‐0.001***<br />

Neighborhood Income (in 1000s) -­‐0.722*** -­‐1.000*** -­‐0.736***


Table 7. Student Preference Estimates (cont.)<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Demographics<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x <strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Baseline Achievement<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Baseline <br />

Specifications: <strong>School</strong> Characteristics Student Race Achievement<br />

All Choices Top Choice Only Top Three Choices<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)<br />

High Math Achievement<br />

Main effect 0.008*** 0.007*** 0.004*** 0.000 0.001 -­‐0.001<br />

Baseline Math 0.008*** 0.007*** 0.012*** 0.009***<br />

Baseline English 0.005*** 0.005*** 0.006*** 0.005***<br />

Subsidized Lunch* -­‐0.003*** -­‐0.005*** -­‐0.005***<br />

Neighborhood Income (in 1000s) 0.119* -­‐0.712*** -­‐0.242**<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient -­‐0.002*** -­‐0.003* -­‐0.005***<br />

Special Education -­‐0.003*** 0.000 -­‐0.001<br />

Spanish Language Program<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient 5.147*** 5.755*** 5.472***<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient x Hispanic -­‐3.142*** -­‐3.817*** -­‐3.147***<br />

Asian Language Program<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient 3.687*** 4.253*** 4.203***<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient x Asian -­‐2.131*** -­‐3.299*** -­‐2.717***<br />

Other Language Program<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient 2.289*** 2.947*** 2.870***<br />

Program Type Dummies X X X X X X<br />

Program Specialty Dummies X X X X X X<br />

C. Model Diagnostics<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> ranks 542,666 542,666 542,666 542,666 69,907 197,245<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> parameters 248 272 280 349 349 349<br />

Log likelihood -­‐2,726,580 -­‐2,714,493 -­‐2,710,042 -­‐2,690,008 -­‐302,141 -­‐906,942<br />

Pseudo R-­‐squared 0.85 0.89 0.89 0.92 0.96 0.95<br />

Fraction <strong>of</strong> variance explained by school 0.43 0.68 0.42 0.53 0.58 0.60<br />

observables<br />

Notes: Selected coefficients from two-­‐step maximum likelihood estimation <strong>of</strong> demand system with 69,907 students and submitted ranks over 497 program choices in 235 schools. All parameter estimates in appendix Table C1. Student <br />

distance calculated as road distance using ArcGIS. Dummies for missing school attributes are estimated with separate coefficients. Estimates use all submitted ranks except in columns (4)-­‐(6). Column (1) contains no interactions between <br />

student and school characteristics. Column (2) contains interactions <strong>of</strong> race dummies with all school characteristics. Column (3) contains interactions <strong>of</strong> baseline Math and English score with school characteristics. Columns (4)-­‐(6) contain <br />

interactions <strong>of</strong> gender, race, achievement, special education, limited English pr<strong>of</strong>iciency, subsidized lunch, and median 2000 census block group family income with all school characteristics. High Math achievement is the fraction <strong>of</strong> student <br />

that scored more than 85% on the Math A in New York State Report Cards. Models estimate the utility differences amongst inside options only, with an arbitrarily chosen school's mean utility normalized to zero (this normalization is without <br />

loss <strong>of</strong> generality). Number <strong>of</strong> parameters include school fixed effects. Pseudo R-­‐squared is the fraction <strong>of</strong> variance in utility explained by observables. * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%


Table 8. Estimated Heterogeneity in Student Preferences<br />

By Quartile<br />

Range from Top to <br />

Bottom Second Third Top Bottom Quartile<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)<br />

A. By Quartiles <strong>of</strong> Student Utility Net <strong>of</strong> Distance<br />

All Students -­‐4.32 -­‐0.85 1.12 4.82 9.14<br />

Asian -­‐5.13 -­‐1.34 1.08 5.87 11.00<br />

Black -­‐4.15 -­‐0.57 1.19 4.41 8.56<br />

Hispanic -­‐3.89 -­‐0.80 1.08 4.50 8.40<br />

White -­‐5.84 -­‐1.16 1.07 6.09 11.93<br />

High Math Baseline -­‐4.97 -­‐1.21 1.14 5.82 10.78<br />

Low Math Baseline -­‐4.19 -­‐0.79 1.14 4.72 8.91<br />

B. By Quartiles <strong>of</strong> <strong>School</strong> High Math Achievement<br />

All Students -­‐1.54 -­‐0.30 0.90 2.15 3.69<br />

High Math Baseline -­‐2.30 -­‐0.68 0.85 3.63 5.94<br />

Low Math Baseline -­‐1.52 -­‐0.30 0.91 2.13 3.65<br />

C. By Quartiles <strong>of</strong> <strong>School</strong> Percent Subsidized Lunch<br />

All Students 2.23 0.88 -­‐1.00 -­‐1.41 3.64<br />

Bottom Neighborhood Income Quartile 1.50 0.67 -­‐0.54 -­‐0.86 2.36<br />

Top Neighborhood Income Quartile 3.11 1.11 -­‐1.60 -­‐2.12 5.23<br />

D. By Quartiles <strong>of</strong> <strong>School</strong> Percent White<br />

All Students -­‐2.04 -­‐0.69 0.73 2.94 4.98<br />

Asian -­‐3.01 -­‐1.30 0.89 4.57 7.57<br />

Black -­‐1.62 -­‐0.43 0.69 2.10 3.72<br />

Hispanic -­‐1.71 -­‐0.42 0.81 2.54 4.25<br />

White -­‐3.44 -­‐1.73 0.44 5.14 8.58<br />

Notes: Each row defines a set <strong>of</strong> students and each column defines a set <strong>of</strong> programs based on either a program characteristic or the estimated desirability <strong>of</strong> the program. Utilities in <br />

distance-­‐equivalent miles based on the estimates reported in column (4) <strong>of</strong> Table 7. Each cell reports the average normalized utility for the relevant student-­‐school group, where we <br />

normalize the mean utility, net <strong>of</strong> distance, across programs for each student to zero.


Table 9. In-­‐Sample Model Fit<br />

Average in <br />

Ranked Choice<br />

Overall <br />

Distribution 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th<br />

A. All Students<br />

<strong>Assignment</strong> Observed -­‐ 32% 15% 10% 7% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%<br />

Distance Observed 12.7 4.4 4.8 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.1<br />

Simulated 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7<br />

High English Achievement<br />

High Math Achievement<br />

Observed 19.3 27.8 25.6 24.3 23.2 22.2 21.4 20.8 20.5 19.9 19.4 19.1 18.6<br />

Simulated 24.8 24.8 24.5 24.3 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.5 23.4 23.3<br />

Observed 10.0 16.7 15.3 14.7 13.9 13.4 12.8 12.4 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.8 10.4<br />

Simulated 14.9 15.0 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.9 13.9 13.8<br />

Percent Attending Four Year <br />

College<br />

Fraction Inexperienced <br />

Teachers<br />

Fraction Subsidized Lunch<br />

Attendance Rate (out <strong>of</strong> <br />

100)<br />

Observed 47.2 53.7 54.1 52.8 51.7 50.9 50.1 49.3 49.3 49.0 48.3 47.6 47.5<br />

Simulated 52.8 53.1 53.1 53.0 52.9 52.7 52.6 52.5 52.4 52.3 52.2 52.1<br />

Observed 55.6 43.0 43.8 45.0 46.2 47.1 48.1 48.7 49.5 49.5 50.2 49.9 49.9<br />

Simulated 44.9 44.9 45.0 45.1 45.1 45.2 45.3 45.3 45.4 45.4 45.5 45.5<br />

Observed 62.6 51.4 53.4 54.5 56.2 57.4 58.7 59.8 60.6 61.3 61.9 62.7 63.1<br />

Simulated 53.5 53.7 54.0 54.2 54.4 54.6 54.7 54.9 55.0 55.1 55.3 55.4<br />

Observed 85.7 87.2 86.7 86.4 86.1 85.9 85.7 85.5 85.5 85.2 85.0 84.8 84.5<br />

Simulated 86.3 86.3 86.2 86.1 86.1 86.1 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0 86.0<br />

Percent Asian Observed 8.6 13.8 13.7 13.3 12.7 12.2 11.5 11.0 10.6 10.1 9.7 9.5 9.4<br />

Simulated 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9<br />

Percent Black Observed 38.4 32.6 34.3 35.1 36.0 36.7 37.5 38.2 38.4 38.7 38.9 38.9 38.1<br />

Simulated 34.5 34.7 34.9 35.1 35.2 35.4 35.5 35.6 35.7 35.8 35.9 35.9<br />

Percent Hispanic Observed 42.1 34.4 35.2 35.9 37.0 37.9 38.9 39.6 40.2 40.8 41.5 42.2 43.5<br />

Simulated 35.1 35.2 35.3 35.5 35.6 35.7 35.7 35.8 35.9 35.9 36.0 36.0<br />

Percent White Observed 10.9 19.1 16.7 15.7 14.4 13.3 12.2 11.2 10.8 10.4 9.8 9.4 9.0<br />

Simulated 17.4 17.1 16.7 16.5 16.2 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.3 15.2<br />

B. Students with Low Baseline Math Scores<br />

Distance Observed 12.3 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.8<br />

Simulated 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.4<br />

High Math Achievement Observed 10.0 10.9 10.9 10.5 10.1 10.0 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.1 8.8 8.8<br />

Simulated 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.3<br />

C. Students with High Baseline Math Scores<br />

Distance Observed 13.2 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.2 5.8 5.3<br />

Simulated 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1<br />

High Math Achievement Observed 10.0 26.0 21.4 20.5 19.1 18.2 17.3 16.4 15.6 15.2 14.2 13.9 12.8<br />

Simulated 20.7 20.8 20.0 19.3 18.9 18.6 18.4 18.2 18.1 18.0 17.8 17.7<br />

Notes: Means. Observed characteristics <strong>of</strong> each choice are from demand sample. Simulated characteristics come from estimated preference distribution corresponding to the model in Table 7 column (4) assuming students rank their top 12 programs. <br />

Missing school characteristics are ommitted from both observed and simulated rows. <strong>The</strong> average in overall distribution shows average distance to school for all student-­‐shool pairs and other school characteristics are an unweighted average across <br />

programs.


Table 10. Out <strong>of</strong> Sample Fit for Exit and Matriculation<br />

<strong>Coordinated</strong> Mechanism Uncoordinated Mechanism<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4)<br />

A. Exit from NYC Public <strong>School</strong>s<br />

Utility from <strong>Assignment</strong> (in miles) -­‐0.0027*** -­‐0.0030***<br />

(0.0002) (0.0002)<br />

Distance from <strong>Assignment</strong> 0.0001 -­‐0.0026***<br />

(0.0003) (0.0003)<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> observations 66,921 66,921 70,358 70,358<br />

R-­‐squared 0.0650 0.0623 0.0870 0.0856<br />

B. Enroll in <strong>School</strong> Other than Assigned<br />

Utility from <strong>Assignment</strong> (in miles) -­‐0.0130*** -­‐0.0156***<br />

(0.0003) (0.0003)<br />

Distance from <strong>Assignment</strong> 0.0120*** 0.0009*<br />

(0.0004) (0.0005)<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> observations 62,656 62,656 64,349 64,349<br />

R-­‐squared 0.0601 0.0392 0.0610 0.0313<br />

Notes: Uncoordinated mechanism refers to 2002-­‐03 mechanism and coordinated mechanism refers to the 2003-­‐04 mechanism based on <br />

deferred acceptance. Exit is indicator that assigned student enrolled in a school outside NYC public system. Enroll in school other than assigned <br />

is an indicator that assigned student enrolled in NYC public high school other than that assigned at end <strong>of</strong> match. Distance calculated as road <br />

distance using ArcGIS. Utility estimates are come from specification in column (4) <strong>of</strong> Table 7, projected on observable student and school <br />

characteristics for the mechanism comparison sample in the uncoordinated and coordinated mechanism. Columns (1) and (3) report estimates <br />

<strong>of</strong> exit and enrollment indicators regressed on utility (in distance units), while columns (2) and (4) report estimates <strong>of</strong> exit and enrollment <br />

indicators regressed on on distance to assignment. All models include controls for student race, baseline Math, baseline English, no baseline <br />

Math score, no baseline English score, subsidized lunch, neighborhood income (from 2000 census block group median family income), limited <br />

English pr<strong>of</strong>iciency, and special education. * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%


Table 11. <strong>Welfare</strong> Comparison between Mechanisms<br />

Change in Utility<br />

(in miles)<br />

Change in Distance (in miles)<br />

2002-­‐03 Offer Processing<br />

<strong>Assignment</strong> Enrollment <strong>Assignment</strong> Enrollment Main Rounds Supplementary Over-­‐the-­‐Counter<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)<br />

All Students 4.79 3.99 0.69 0.38 49.2% 14.5% 36.3%<br />

Female 4.45 3.63 0.68 0.37 51.8% 14.3% 33.9%<br />

Asian 4.75 3.75 0.63 0.33 46.6% 5.4% 48.0%<br />

Black 4.57 3.82 0.74 0.45 53.7% 18.4% 27.8%<br />

Hispanic 4.95 4.23 0.66 0.39 51.9% 17.3% 30.8%<br />

White 5.25 3.94 0.56 0.22 33.1% 3.8% 63.1%<br />

Bronx 5.26 4.57 0.93 0.64 53.5% 20.2% 26.2%<br />

Brooklyn 4.79 4.15 0.52 0.33 50.3% 16.2% 33.5%<br />

Manhattan 1.80 1.39 0.00 -­‐0.09 69.9% 19.2% 10.8%<br />

Queens 5.41 4.01 1.13 0.57 43.2% 8.3% 48.5%<br />

Staten Island 6.32 6.20 0.34 0.00 13.5% 0.0% 86.5%<br />

High Baseline Math 3.14 2.12 0.53 0.20 58.5% 7.4% 34.1%<br />

Low Baseline Math 5.25 4.65 0.57 0.33 47.1% 19.8% 33.1%<br />

Subsidized Lunch* 4.52 3.77 0.59 0.31 52.9% 15.4% 31.7%<br />

Bottom Neighborhood Income <br />

4.38 3.96 0.57 0.42 56.4% 23.3% 20.3%<br />

Quartile<br />

Top Neighborhood Income Quartile 4.59 3.36 0.71 0.25 42.2% 8.1% 49.8%<br />

Special Education 5.38 4.40 0.76 0.43 39.2% 18.8% 42.0%<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient 5.68 5.02 0.60 0.38 47.1% 16.3% 36.6%<br />

SHSAT Test-­‐Takers 2.63 1.85 0.55 0.25 62.5% 10.3% 27.2%<br />

Notes: Utilities are in distance units (miles) averaged across students in the mechanism comparison sample in Table 1 using preference estimates in Table 7 column (4). <strong>Assignment</strong> is the school assigned at the <br />

conclusion <strong>of</strong> the high school assignment process. Enrollment is the school student enrolls in October following application. 2002-­‐03 <strong>of</strong>fer process reports the fraction <strong>of</strong> students with row characteristic first <strong>of</strong>fered <br />

school finally assigned in the main round (rounds 1-­‐3), the supplementary round or the over the counter process. Student distance calculated as road distance using ArcGIS. High baseline math students score above <br />

the 75th percentile for 7th grade relative to citywide distribution, while low baseline math students score below the 25th percentile. Subsidized lunch not available pre-­‐assignment and comes from enrolled students <br />

as <strong>of</strong> 2004-­‐05 school year. Neighborhood income is median census block group family income from the 2000 census.


Table 12. Alternative Mechanisms Relative to Utilitarian Optimal Benchmark<br />

Student-­‐Proposing Student Optimal Ordinal Pareto Efficient <br />

Deferred Acceptance<br />

Matching<br />

Matching <br />

(1) (2) (3)<br />

Utility (in miles) -­‐2.85 -­‐2.74 -­‐2.24<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> students reassignments <br />

relative to column (1)<br />

2,348 10,882<br />

Notes: Utility from alternative assignments relative to utilitarian optimal assignment computed using actual preferences ignoring all school-­‐side <br />

constraints except capacity. Utility computed using estimates in Table 7 column (4). Mean utility from the utilitarian optimal assignment normalized to <br />

zero. Column (1) is from 500 lottery draws <strong>of</strong> student-­‐proposing deferred acceptance with single tie-­‐breaking using the demand estimation sample. If <br />

a student is unassigned, we mimic the Supplementary Round by assigning students according to a serial dictatorship using preferences drawn from the <br />

preference distribution estimated in Table 7 column (4). Student optimal matching computed by taking each deferred acceptance assignment and <br />

applying the Erdil-­‐Ergin (2008) stable improvement cycles algorithm to find a student-­‐optimal matching. Ordinal Pareto Efficient Matching computed <br />

by applying Gale's top trading cycles to the economy where the student-­‐optimal matching determine student endowments, followed by the <br />

Abdulkadiroglu-­‐Sonmez (2003) version <strong>of</strong> top trading cycles with counters.


Figure 1. <strong>School</strong> Locations and Students by New York City Census Tract in 2002-­‐03 and 2003-­‐04


Figure 2. Distribution <strong>of</strong> Distance to Assigned <strong>School</strong> in <br />

Uncoordinated (2002-­‐03) and <strong>Coordinated</strong> (2003-­‐04) Mechanism <br />

Mean (median) travel distance is 3.36 (2.25) miles in 2002-­‐03 and 4.05 (3.04) miles in 2003-­‐04. Top and bottom 1% are not shown in <br />

figure. Line fit from Gaussian kernel with bandwidth chosen to minimize mean integrated squared error using STATA’s kdensity <br />

command.


Figure 3. Log-­‐Log Plot <strong>of</strong> Predicted vs. Actual Program Market Shares <br />

Market share means fraction <strong>of</strong> applicants ranking program anywhere on rank order list. Predicted program market shares based on <br />

preference estimates from the specification in column (4) <strong>of</strong> Table 6, using 100 draws from our estimates and assuming students <br />

rank their top 12 programs. Each point corresponds to the predicted and actual market share.


Figure 4. Student <strong>Welfare</strong> from Uncoordinated and <strong>Coordinated</strong> Mechanism <br />

Distribution <strong>of</strong> utility (measured in distance units) from assignment based on Table 7 column (4) estimates plotted with mean utility <br />

in 2003-­‐04 normalized to 0. Average difference corresponds to 4.79 miles. Top and bottom 1% are not shown in figure. Line fit <br />

from Gaussian kernel with bandwidth chosen to minimize mean integrated squared error using STATA’s kdensity command.


Figure 5. Change in Student <strong>Welfare</strong> by Propensity to Assigned <br />

in the Over-­‐the-­‐Counter Round <strong>of</strong> Uncoordinated Mechanism <br />

<br />

Probability <strong>of</strong> over the counter assignment estimated from probit <strong>of</strong> over the counter on student census tract dummies and all student characteristics in the <br />

demand model except for distance. If student lives in tract where either all students are assigned over the counter or no students are assigned over the <br />

counter, for forecasting all students from those tracts are coded as over the counter. Each student is assigned to one <strong>of</strong> ten deciles <strong>of</strong> probability <strong>of</strong> over the <br />

counter based on these estimates. Differences across deciles in distance-­‐equivalent utility including distance, distance-­‐equivalent utility net <strong>of</strong> distance, and <br />

distance are plotted, where preference estimates come from column (4) <strong>of</strong> Table 7, conditional on submitted rankings. Distance is calculated as road <br />

distance using ArcGIS.


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51


Table A1. Offer Acceptances among Students who Obtain Multiple First Round Offers in Uncoordinated<br />

Mechanism<br />

Among those Accepting First<br />

Round Offer<br />

Fraction who<br />

Accept No First<br />

Fraction who<br />

Accept First<br />

Accept Offer<br />

Other than<br />

Most Preferred<br />

Number Round Offer Round Offer<br />

Accept Most<br />

Preferred<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)<br />

Two or more <strong>of</strong>fers 12,508 0.14 0.86 0.71 0.29<br />

Best <strong>of</strong>fer<br />

1 7,096 0.09 0.91 0.75 0.25<br />

2 3,159 0.17 0.83 0.67 0.33<br />

3 1,624 0.23 0.77 0.60 0.40<br />

4 629 0.30 0.70 0.58 0.42<br />

Notes: Table reports the fraction <strong>of</strong> students who received multiple first round <strong>of</strong>fers in the uncoordinated mechanism in 2002‐03. A<br />

student accepts her most preferred option if assigned to that option at the conclusion <strong>of</strong> the match. A student accepts first round<br />

<strong>of</strong>fer other than most preferred if assigned to an school ranked below the most preferred <strong>of</strong>fer. A student accepts none <strong>of</strong> her first<br />

round <strong>of</strong>fers if assigned to a school not <strong>of</strong>fered in the first round at the conclusion <strong>of</strong> the match.


Table A2. Main Round <strong>Assignment</strong>s in <strong>Coordinated</strong> Mechanism, by Length <strong>of</strong> Rank Order List<br />

Length <strong>of</strong> Rank Order List<br />

Choice Assigned All 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12<br />

Total 69,907 4,597 3,282 4,128 4,622 4,952 4,776 4,406 4,390 4,558 6,135 9,849 14,212<br />

1 31.9% 88.6% 40.7% 35.2% 31.9% 27.9% 28.6% 27.1% 25.7% 25.6% 25.4% 26.2% 25.2%<br />

2 15.0% 39.8% 17.7% 15.1% 14.8% 14.6% 13.7% 13.9% 13.9% 15.2% 14.7% 14.6%<br />

3 10.2% 24.3% 11.6% 11.6% 10.6% 10.0% 10.8% 9.9% 10.4% 10.4% 10.5%<br />

4 7.3% 18.0% 9.3% 8.1% 7.9% 8.0% 7.6% 7.6% 7.8% 8.2%<br />

5 5.4% 12.8% 7.0% 7.0% 6.3% 6.1% 6.6% 6.2% 6.7%<br />

6 3.9% 10.2% 5.7% 4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 5.3%<br />

7 2.9% 8.1% 4.3% 4.4% 4.0% 4.1% 4.3%<br />

8 2.0% 5.8% 3.4% 3.3% 2.9% 3.5%<br />

9 1.5% 4.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8%<br />

10 1.1% 3.2% 2.3% 2.6%<br />

11 0.8% 2.6% 2.2%<br />

12 0.5% 2.5%<br />

Unassigned 17.5% 11.4% 19.5% 22.8% 23.3% 23.6% 20.9% 20.6% 20.3% 20.1% 16.7% 15.3% 11.6%<br />

Notes: This table reports choices assigned after the main round in coordinated 2003-­‐04 mechanism based on deferred acceptance.


Table A3. <strong>Assignment</strong> and Enrollment Decisions <strong>of</strong> Students in <strong>Coordinated</strong> Mechanism by Rank Order List Length<br />

Length <strong>of</strong> Rank Order List<br />

All 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th<br />

A. <strong>Assignment</strong> Offered in Main Round<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> Students 57,658 4,072 2,641 3,187 3,545 3,782 3,776 3,497 3,499 3,642 5,113 8,340 12,564<br />

Average Rank <strong>of</strong> <strong>Assignment</strong> 3.00 1.00 1.49 1.86 2.21 2.53 2.76 3.04 3.20 3.35 3.49 3.60 3.93<br />

Accept Main Round <strong>Assignment</strong> 92.7% 91.2% 88.5% 88.4% 90.2% 91.2% 92.3% 91.9% 93.0% 93.6% 94.5% 94.6% 94.3%<br />

Enroll at Private High <strong>School</strong> 2.5% 6.9% 7.4% 6.1% 4.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0%<br />

Remain in Current <strong>School</strong> 1.2% 1.2% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 2.1% 1.4% 1.8% 1.4% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6%<br />

Attend Specialized or Alternative <strong>School</strong> 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%<br />

Participate in Supplementary Round 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%<br />

B. Students Unassigned after Main Round<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> Students 12,249 525 641 941 1,077 1,170 1,000 909 891 916 1,022 1,509 1,648<br />

Participate in Supplementary Round 52.6% 26.1% 44.8% 54.0% 54.1% 56.2% 55.6% 55.7% 52.7% 46.5% 43.5% 49.6% 68.2%<br />

Enroll at Supplementary Round <strong>Assignment</strong> 72.9% 73.0% 85.0% 76.0% 75.5% 77.8% 73.0% 75.9% 74.5% 68.8% 71.7% 69.5% 66.3%<br />

Enroll at Private High <strong>School</strong> 2.8% 6.7% 6.1% 4.7% 3.5% 3.8% 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.9% 2.2% 1.4% 1.9%<br />

Remaining in Current <strong>School</strong> 3.2% 6.7% 6.2% 5.6% 5.3% 4.4% 3.2% 3.3% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 0.9% 1.8%<br />

Attend Specialized or Alternative <strong>School</strong> 0.3% 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%<br />

Notes: <strong>Assignment</strong> and enrollment decisions <strong>of</strong> students in the demand estimation sample under the coordinated mechanism. Panel A restricts to students that received an assignment in an NYC Public <strong>School</strong> in the Main Round. Panel B restricts to students that did not <br />

receive an assignment in the Main Round.


Table A4. Preference Estimates from Alternative Specifications<br />

All Drop Lists wth Dropping Last Ranked With Outside<br />

Choices 12 choices Choice Only Option<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)<br />

A. Preference for Distance<br />

Distance (in miles) -­‐0.310*** -­‐0.317*** -­‐0.302*** -­‐0.024*** -­‐0.304***<br />

B. Preference for <strong>School</strong>s -­‐ Main effects<br />

Size <strong>of</strong> 9th Grade (in 100s) 0.059*** 0.067*** 0.061*** 0.042 0.044***<br />

Percent White 0.032*** 0.032*** 0.029*** 0.001 0.030***<br />

Attendance Rate 0.075*** 0.082*** 0.087*** 0.061 0.053***<br />

Percent Free Lunch -­‐0.004*** -­‐0.004*** -­‐0.004*** 0.005 -­‐0.005***<br />

High Math Achievement 0.000 -­‐0.001 0.002*** 0.003 0.002***<br />

Program Type Dummies X X X X X<br />

Program Specialty Dummies X X X X X<br />

C. Model Diagnostics<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> ranks 542,666 372,122 472,579 542,666 542,666<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> parameters 349 349 349 349 350<br />

Log likelihood -­‐2,690,008 -­‐1,818,749 -­‐2,431,624 -­‐753,816 -­‐2,876,073<br />

Pseudo R-­‐squared 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.60 0.86<br />

Fraction <strong>of</strong> variance explained by school observables 0.53 0.56 0.51 0.15 0.47<br />

Notes: Maximum likelihood estimates from demand systems with variations in the sample <strong>of</strong> students and alternative behavioral assumptions. All estimates have same controls as in column (4) <br />

<strong>of</strong> Table 7, which includes interactions with student demographic racial and baseline achievement and school characteristics. Dummies for missing school attributes are estimated with separate <br />

coefficients. <strong>The</strong> first column treats all choices as truthful, the second column drops students who have ranked 12 schools from the sample, the third column only uses information about relative <br />

comparisons among listed alternatives, assuming that unlisted alternatives are missing at random, and the fourth column drops the last ranked school from each students list. Columns (1) through <br />

(4) estimate utility amongst inside options only, with an arbitrarily chosen school's mean utility normalized to zero (this normalization is without loss <strong>of</strong> generality). Column (5) adds an outside <br />

option to the model, treating unranked schools as worse than the outside option. Pseudo R-­‐squared in the fraction <strong>of</strong> variance in utility explained by observables. * significant at 10%; ** <br />

significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%


A<br />

Appendix: Simulating Utilities<br />

This appendix explains how we simulate utilities for students given the preference estimates.<br />

Consider a random utility function <strong>of</strong> the form<br />

u ij = V ij + ε ij ,<br />

where ε ij is distributed as F (ε) = exp (− exp (−ε)) and V ij is known. Suppose we observe<br />

ranking r i = (j 1 , ..., j K ) . We simulate the utilities conditional on the rankings by simulating the<br />

utility <strong>of</strong> kth choice conditional on the simulated utility <strong>of</strong> (k − 1)st choice. For the first choice,<br />

draws are simulated unconditionally.<br />

A.1 Ranked Choices<br />

Calculation <strong>of</strong> probabilities. <strong>The</strong> probability that ε ij1 is less than ¯s conditional on u ij1 being<br />

the largest in a set J when ε ij1 ≤ ¯s can be written as<br />

P (ε ij1 ≤ ¯s|u ij1 = max u ij ) = P (u ij 1<br />

= max u ij |ε ij1 ≤ ¯s) F (¯s)<br />

P (u ij1 = max u ij )<br />

=<br />

F j1 (¯s) F (¯s)<br />

P (u ij1 = max u ij ) .<br />

<strong>The</strong> quantities F (¯s) and P (u ij1 = max u ij ) are known. To compute F j1 (¯s), we have<br />

F j1 (¯s) =<br />

=<br />

=<br />

=<br />

∫ ¯s<br />

∏<br />

s=−∞<br />

j∈J\{j 1 }<br />

∫ ¯s<br />

s=−∞<br />

∫ ¯s<br />

s=−∞<br />

∫ ∞<br />

exp(−¯s)<br />

p that V ij +ε ij


<strong>The</strong> expression for the required probability simplifies to<br />

( (∑<br />

j<br />

P (ε ij1 ≤ ¯s|u ij1 = max u ij ) = exp − exp (−¯s)<br />

exp (V ))<br />

ij)<br />

+ 1 .<br />

exp (V ij1 )<br />

Conditional on all utilities for j ∈ J being less than û. <strong>The</strong> probability that ε ij1 is less<br />

than ¯s conditional on u ij being less than û for all j ∈ J, and j 1 the largest amongst the remaining<br />

choices is given by Bayes’ <strong>The</strong>orem.<br />

{<br />

0 ¯s ≥ û − V ij<br />

P (ε ij1 ≤ ¯s|u ij ≤ û, u ij1 = max u ij ) =<br />

Fij û<br />

1<br />

(¯s) otherwise<br />

Fij û<br />

1<br />

(¯s) = P (u ij 1<br />

= max u ij |u ij ≤ û, ε ij1 ≤ ¯s) P (u ij ≤ û, ε ij1 ≤ ¯s)<br />

P (u ij1 = max u ij |u ij < û) P (u ij ≤ û)<br />

= P (u ij 1<br />

= max u ij |u ij ≤ û, ε ij1 ≤ ¯s) F (¯s)<br />

P (u ij1 = max u ij |u ij ≤ û) F (û − V ij1 ) .<br />

Notice that P (u ij1 = max u ij |u ij ≤ û) is just P (u ij1 = max u ij |u ij ≤ û, ε ij1 ≤ ¯s) evaluated at<br />

¯s = û − V ij . <strong>The</strong>refore, we need to compute P (u ij1 = max u ij |u ij ≤ û, ε ij1 ≤ ¯s) . Since the event<br />

u ij1 = max u ij |ε ij1 ≤ ¯s is contained in the event u ij ≤ û, for ¯s ≤ û − V ij1 , we have that<br />

P (u ij1 = max u ij |u ij ≤ û, ε ij1 ≤ ¯s) P (u ij ≤ û) = P (u ij1 = max u ij |ε ij1 ≤ ¯s) . <strong>The</strong>refore,<br />

F û<br />

ij 1<br />

(¯s) =<br />

P (u ij1 = max u ij |ε ij1 ≤ ¯s) F (¯s)<br />

P (u ij1 = max u ij |ε ij1 ≤ û − V ij1 ) F (û − V ij1 )<br />

(<br />

∑<br />

j<br />

(exp (− (û − V ij1 )) − exp (−¯s))<br />

exp (V ij)<br />

exp (V ij1 )<br />

= exp<br />

)<br />

F (¯s)<br />

F (û − V ij1 ) .<br />

Inverse CDF. For simulations, we need the inverse cdf function.<br />

(<br />

∑<br />

F ûj<br />

j<br />

1<br />

(¯s) = exp {exp (− (û − V ij1 )) − exp (−¯s)}<br />

exp (V )<br />

ij) F (¯s)<br />

exp (V ij1 ) F (û − V ij1 )<br />

(<br />

(∑<br />

j<br />

= exp {exp (− (û − V ij1 )) − exp (−¯s)}<br />

exp (V ))<br />

ij)<br />

+ 1<br />

exp (V ij1 )<br />

{<br />

(∑<br />

j<br />

⇒ ¯s = − ln exp (− (û − V ij1 )) −<br />

exp (V −1<br />

}<br />

ij)<br />

+ 1)<br />

ln F ûj exp (V ij1 )<br />

1<br />

(¯s)<br />

Clearly, at F ûj 1<br />

(¯s) = 1, ¯s = û − V ij1<br />

as desired.<br />

A.2 Unranked Programs<br />

For a program that wasn’t ranked, we know that the utility for this program is less than all programs<br />

ranked by the student. Let û be the lowest utility from ranked programs. <strong>The</strong> probability<br />

distribution <strong>of</strong> ε ij <strong>of</strong> unranked programs is given by<br />

F û<br />

ij (¯s) =<br />

{<br />

0<br />

F (¯s)<br />

F (û−V ij )<br />

¯s > û − V ij<br />

otherwise .<br />

<strong>The</strong> value <strong>of</strong> û can be simulated using the procedure above.<br />

57


B<br />

Appendix: Subway Distances<br />

In New York, high school students who live within 0.5 miles <strong>of</strong> a school are not eligible for<br />

transportation. If a student lives between 0.5 and 1.5 miles the Metropolitan Transit Authority<br />

provides them with a half-fare student Metrocard that works only for bus transportation. If they<br />

reside 1.5 miles or greater, they obtain full fare transportation with a student Metrocard that<br />

works for subways and buses and is issued by the school transportation <strong>of</strong>fice.<br />

Since subway is a common mode <strong>of</strong> transportation in New York City, this appendix assesses<br />

how the driving distance measure we utilize in the paper differs from commuting distance using<br />

NYC’s subway system. Subway distance is defined as the sum <strong>of</strong> distance on foot to the student’s<br />

nearest subway station, travel distance on the subway network to a school’s nearest subway<br />

station, and the distance on foot to the school from that station. To compute these distances,<br />

we used ESRI’s ArcGIS s<strong>of</strong>tware and information on the NYC subway system using GIS files<br />

downloaded from Metropolitan Transit Authority’s website. Details on these sources are in the<br />

Data appendix.<br />

<strong>The</strong> overall correlation between driving distance and total commuting distance for all studentprogram<br />

pairs is 0.96. A regression <strong>of</strong> commuting distance on driving distance yields a coefficient<br />

<strong>of</strong> 0.77. Table S1 provides a summary <strong>of</strong> the correlations by the student and school borough.<br />

<strong>The</strong> correlations are higher than 0.84, except for schools in Staten Island, where the subway<br />

system is not quite as extensive as in other boroughs. In fact, it may be that driving distances<br />

are a more accurate measure <strong>of</strong> travel costs in Staten Island than subway distance.<br />

Panels B and C shows that most students are assigned to schools in their borough in both<br />

the uncoordinated and coordinated mechanism. In both mechanisms, a very small number <strong>of</strong><br />

students that do not live in Staten Island travel are assigned to schools there and conversely, only<br />

a small number <strong>of</strong> students living in Staten Island are assigned to school in a different borough.<br />

58


Table S1. Subway and Driving Distance and Cross-­‐Borough <strong>School</strong> <strong>Assignment</strong><br />

<strong>School</strong> Borough<br />

Brooklyn Bronx Manhattan Queens Staten Island Total<br />

Student Borough (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)<br />

A. Correlation between Subway and Driving Distance<br />

Brooklyn 0.91 0.90 0.95 0.91 0.92<br />

Bronx 0.93 0.90 0.97 0.91 0.76<br />

Manhattan 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.95 0.76<br />

Queens 0.91 0.91 0.95 0.87 0.85<br />

Staten Island 0.92 0.84 0.85 0.89 0.73<br />

B. Cross-­‐Borough Travel in Uncoordinated Mechanism<br />

Brooklyn 20,877 13 1,073 502 12 22,477<br />

Bronx 41 15,187 1,382 66 1 16,677<br />

Manhattan 42 89 8,604 24 1 8,760<br />

Queens 493 15 586 16,498 0 17,592<br />

Staten Island 13 2 59 4 4,774 4,852<br />

C. Cross-­‐Borough Travel in <strong>Coordinated</strong> Mechanism<br />

Brooklyn 20,035 39 1,858 846 40 22,818<br />

Bronx 85 13,335 2,049 84 8 15,561<br />

Manhattan 108 238 7,492 52 7 7,897<br />

Queens 584 26 1,028 14,972 9 16,619<br />

Staten Island 37 3 69 4 3,913 4,026<br />

Notes: Panel A reports on the correlation between student-­‐school distance as computed by travel distance and by subway <br />

distance. Subway distance is the sum <strong>of</strong> distance on foot to the student's nearest subway station, travel distance on the <br />

subway network to a school's nearest subway station, and the distance on foot to the school from that location. Both measures <br />

<strong>of</strong> distance were computed using ArcGIS. Panels B and C report on the number <strong>of</strong> students in each borough who are <strong>of</strong>fered a <br />

school in each borough.


C<br />

Appendix: Data<br />

<strong>The</strong> data for this study come from the NYC Department <strong>of</strong> Education (DOE), the 2000 US Census,<br />

ArcGIS Business Analyst toolbox and GFTS NYC subway data from the NYC Metropolitan<br />

Transit Authority. <strong>The</strong>se sources provide us with data on students, schools, the rank-order lists<br />

submitted by the students, the assignment <strong>of</strong> students to schools or the distance between the<br />

students and schools on the road network or the subway system. Students and programs are<br />

uniquely identified by a number that can be used to populate fields and merge across DOE<br />

datasets. We geocode student and school addresses to merge with geo-spatial data.<br />

We also use three samples <strong>of</strong> students in our analysis: one sample to estimate demand and<br />

the other two to infer the welfare effects <strong>of</strong> the mechanism change. <strong>The</strong> welfare samples consists<br />

<strong>of</strong> public middle schools student that matriculate into NYC Public High <strong>School</strong>s in the academic<br />

years 2003-04 and 2004-05. <strong>The</strong> demand sample consists <strong>of</strong> public middle school students that<br />

participated in the main round <strong>of</strong> the mechanism in 2003-04. <strong>The</strong> demand sample and the welfare<br />

sample from 2003-04 are not nested because students participating in the mechanism may choose<br />

to enroll in a school outside the NYC Public <strong>School</strong> system whereas others may be assigned to<br />

a public school outside the main assignment process.<br />

C.1 Students<br />

<strong>Assignment</strong> and Rank Data<br />

Data on the assignment system come from the DOE’s enrollment <strong>of</strong>fice. <strong>The</strong> files indicate the<br />

final assignment <strong>of</strong> all students in both years in our analysis. We use these assignments as<br />

the basis <strong>of</strong> our baseline welfare calculations. In addition, the assignment system also provides<br />

separate files that detail the rank orders, applications or processes through which a student is<br />

assigned to a given school.<br />

We use the records from the main round in the new mechanism to obtain the rank order<br />

lists submitted by students and the assignment proposed by the mechanism. A total <strong>of</strong> 87,355<br />

students participated in the main round.<br />

For the old mechanism, the assignment system provides student choice and decision files for<br />

the main round. <strong>The</strong> former contains the ranked applications submitted by the students and the<br />

latter provides the decisions <strong>of</strong> the schools to accept/reject/waitlist the student and the students<br />

response to these <strong>of</strong>fers, if any. A total <strong>of</strong> 84,272 students participated in the main round.<br />

<strong>The</strong> old assignment system also contains several files documenting the supplementary variable<br />

assignment process (VAS) round.<br />

<strong>Assignment</strong> Rounds and Offers in the Old Mechanism<br />

<strong>The</strong> files in the old mechanism do not directly contain information on how students were assigned<br />

to their programs. However, we are able to determine whether a student applied to a particular<br />

program/school in the main process or the supplementary VAS process. We first append fields<br />

indicating whether a student applied to her assigned program in the main process. We also<br />

append a field indicating whether a student applied to her assigned school in the supplementary<br />

60


VAS process. It turns out that no final assignment appears in both the main and the VAS files.<br />

We therefore categorize the former assignments as main-round assignments and the latter as VAS<br />

assignments. We assume that all other assignments are through the over the counter process.<br />

Based on conversations with DOE <strong>of</strong>ficials, students were typically assigned to school closest to<br />

home that had open seats. Our understanding is that most <strong>of</strong> the students that participated in<br />

the VAS process did not have a default local school. An analysis <strong>of</strong> the geographic distribution<br />

<strong>of</strong> our definition <strong>of</strong> students assigned over the counter is consistent with this fact: many parts <strong>of</strong><br />

NYC have no students assigned through the over the counter process.<br />

Finally, we also append the number <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong>fers made to a particular student using a file with<br />

the initial response <strong>of</strong> schools to the student application.<br />

<strong>Assignment</strong> Rounds in the New Mechanism<br />

We use the NYC assignment files described above to determine the process through which a<br />

student was assigned a given school.<br />

<strong>The</strong> assignment files in the new mechanism contain, for every student program pair that<br />

is ranked in either the main round or the supplementary round, two fields indicating whether<br />

the student is eligible for the school and if the student was assigned to that school. A final<br />

assignment is treated as a main-round assignment if it appears as an eligible assignment in the<br />

main round. <strong>Assignment</strong>s that are not made in the main round are treated as a supplementary<br />

round assignment if they appear in the supplementary round files. All other assignments are<br />

treated as over the counter assignments.<br />

Student Characteristics<br />

<strong>The</strong> records from the NYC Department <strong>of</strong> Education contain the street address, previous and<br />

current grade, gender, ethnicity and whether the student was enrolled in a public middle school.<br />

Each student is identified by a unique number that allows us to merge these data with additional<br />

data from the NYC DOE on a student’s scores in middle school standardized tests, Limited<br />

English Pr<strong>of</strong>iciency status, and Special Education status. A separate file indicates subsidized<br />

lunch status as <strong>of</strong> the 2004-05 enrollment. If a student is not in that file, we code the student as<br />

not receiving a subsidized lunch.<br />

<strong>The</strong>re are several standardized tests taken by middle school students in NYC. To avoid the<br />

concern that two different tests may not be comparable indicators <strong>of</strong> student achievement, we<br />

identify the modal standardized tests in math and reading taken by students in our sample. <strong>The</strong>se<br />

are the May tests with codes CTB and TEM respectively. Of the students that did not take<br />

either <strong>of</strong> these tests in May, at most 10% (


fractions are 7.13% and 12.56%.<br />

Geographic Data<br />

We use the 2000 US Census to obtain block group family income. <strong>The</strong> addresses <strong>of</strong> students<br />

and their distance to school were calculated using ArcGIS. Corrections to the addresses, when<br />

necessary, were made using Google Map Tools followed by manual checks and corrections.<br />

<strong>The</strong> final set <strong>of</strong> addresses were geocoded using ArcGIS geocoder with the address-set in the<br />

Business Analyst toolbox (ver. 10.0). We first used an exact match to determine if a student’s<br />

address can be geocoded precisely to a ro<strong>of</strong>top. If the results were unreliable, we coded the<br />

student to the centroid <strong>of</strong> the zip-code. <strong>The</strong> vast majority <strong>of</strong> students were placed at the ro<strong>of</strong>top<br />

level. <strong>The</strong> OD Cost matrix tool in the Network Analyst toolbox was used to compute the<br />

distance by road for each student-school pair. <strong>The</strong> road network is also obtained from Business<br />

Analyst.<br />

Our computation <strong>of</strong> subway distances assumes that a student first walks to the closest subway<br />

stop, then uses the subway system to travel to the subway stop closest to the school, and finally<br />

walks from the subway to the school. <strong>The</strong> location <strong>of</strong> the subway stops is taken from the GTFS<br />

and geodata data on the NYC Metropolitan Transit Authority website. <strong>The</strong> network analyst<br />

toolbox is used to compute the walking distance and the GTFS data is used to compute the<br />

distance on the subway system between every pair <strong>of</strong> subway stops.<br />

Merging Student Records<br />

<strong>Assignment</strong> and other DOE files are matched using the unique student identifier linking these<br />

data. Each eighth-grade non-private middle school student in the Department <strong>of</strong> Education<br />

records could be merged uniquely with a student in the NYC assignment records. Less than<br />

0.45% <strong>of</strong> students with known assignments in the records <strong>of</strong> the NYC assignment system could<br />

not be merged with a student in the DOE records. <strong>The</strong>se students were not included in the<br />

analysis.<br />

C.2 Applicant Sample Construction<br />

Our goal is to consider first-time applicants to the NYC public (unspecialized) high school system<br />

that live in New York City attend a public middle school 8th grade. Below, we described the<br />

procedure used to construct the samples. <strong>The</strong> selection procedure is also summarized in Table<br />

B1.<br />

<strong>Welfare</strong> Sample<br />

<strong>The</strong> welfare samples is constructed from the NYC Department <strong>of</strong> Education’s records <strong>of</strong> all<br />

students enrolling in ninth grade at a high school in academic years 2003-04 and 2004-05.<br />

As our choice set in the demand analysis will be restricted to unspecialized, non-charter high<br />

schools in the public school system, we do not include students that matriculated to such schools<br />

in the welfare sample.<br />

62


Of the 92,623 eighth grade students matriculating into ninth grade at a NYC public school<br />

in 2002-03, 11,790 (12.73%) students went to a private middle school and were dropped. Another<br />

8,051 (8.69%) <strong>of</strong> students were not included in the analysis because their assignment was<br />

unknown, or because they matriculated at either a specialized high school or a charter school.<br />

Finally, we exclude students in schools that were closed (no assignments in the new system).<br />

In 2003-04, about 1.3% students had also participated in the old mechanism, presumably<br />

because these students repeated eighth grade. <strong>The</strong>se students were considered a part <strong>of</strong> the<br />

2002-03 sample and only their 2002-03 assignment into high school is considered in our analysis.<br />

We also drop private middle school students and those not assigned to public school. <strong>The</strong>se<br />

fractions were similar to the 2002-03 numbers, at 12.21% and 8.13% respectively. We also drop<br />

students that were assigned to new schools.<br />

<strong>The</strong>se selections into the sample leave us with 70,358 students in 2002-03 and 66,921 students<br />

in 2003-04. Students that may have been assigned to a high school program through a process<br />

other than the main round are included in these samples.<br />

Demand Sample<br />

This sample is sourced from the NYC <strong>Assignment</strong> system’s records on the participants in the<br />

main round <strong>of</strong> the mechanism. As discussed in the text, we use only data only from the main<br />

round <strong>of</strong> the mechanism as this round has the most desirable incentive properties.<br />

We do not want to exclude students on the basis <strong>of</strong> final assignment to avoid selecting on the<br />

choice to leave the public school system. In order to most closely match the construction <strong>of</strong> the<br />

welfare sample, we select the demand sample only on characteristics that can be considered as<br />

exogenous at the time <strong>of</strong> participation.<br />

Since we focus on first-time applicants in eighth grade, we exclude 747 students that were<br />

part <strong>of</strong> the 2002-03 files, and 5,311 students that were ninth graders. Presumably, these students<br />

were held back in eighth or ninth grade. This leaves us with a sample <strong>of</strong> 81,297 eighth grade<br />

students.<br />

Of the eighth-grade participants, 9,301 or 11.44% <strong>of</strong> students were from private middle schools<br />

and were dropped. We also excluded students designated as belonging to the top 2% <strong>of</strong> their<br />

middle school class as they are prioritized at education option schools, creating incentives to<br />

misreport their preferences. <strong>The</strong>se are 2.5% <strong>of</strong> the non-private eighth grade population.<br />

A total <strong>of</strong> 216 students did not rank any public schools in our sample. After excluding these<br />

students, a total <strong>of</strong> 69,907 students remain in the sample we will use for the demand analysis.<br />

C.3 Programs/<strong>School</strong>s<br />

NYC Department <strong>of</strong> Education <strong>School</strong> Report Cards<br />

<strong>The</strong> school characteristics were taken from the report card files provided by the NYC Department<br />

<strong>of</strong> Education. <strong>The</strong>se data provide information on a school’s enrollment statistics, racial<br />

composition <strong>of</strong> student body, attendance rates, suspensions, teacher numbers and experience,<br />

and Regents Math and English performance <strong>of</strong> the graduating class. A unique identifier for each<br />

school allows these data to be merged with data from our other sources.<br />

63


<strong>The</strong>re were significant differences in the file formats and field names across the years. To<br />

keep the school characteristics constant across years, we use the data from the 2003-04 report<br />

cards as the primary source. Except for data on the math and reading achievement, variable<br />

descriptions were comparable across years. For these comparable variables, we used the 2002-03<br />

data only when the 2003-04 data were not available. <strong>The</strong> coverage <strong>of</strong> the characteristics for the<br />

sample <strong>of</strong> schools is enumerated in Table B2.<br />

<strong>Assignment</strong> System and DOE files<br />

<strong>Assignment</strong> data contain a list <strong>of</strong> all school programs in the public school system along with<br />

an identifier for the associated high school. <strong>The</strong> department <strong>of</strong> education provided a separate<br />

file with data on the school addresses and identifiers that allow a merge with the assignment<br />

system database. A second identifier can be used to merge these data with other fields in the<br />

department <strong>of</strong> education records described above.<br />

Across the two years, the high school identifiers in the files were inconsistent for a small<br />

number <strong>of</strong> schools in our sample. <strong>The</strong>se were matched by name and address <strong>of</strong> the school. One<br />

school moved from Brooklyn to Manhattan and was investigated to ensure that the records were<br />

appropriately matched.<br />

Program Characteristics<br />

Program characteristics are taken from the DOE’s High <strong>School</strong> Directory, which is made available<br />

to students before the application process. Reliable data on program types was not available<br />

in 2002-03. For that year, the program types were imputed from the 2003-04 program types if<br />

the program was present in both years. Otherwise, the program was categorized as a general<br />

program.<br />

<strong>The</strong>re were a very large number <strong>of</strong> program types. <strong>The</strong>se were aggregated into fewer broad<br />

categories. <strong>The</strong> items in the list below are the aggregated categories that include all <strong>of</strong> the<br />

subcategories as described by the data.<br />

1. Arts: Dance, Instrument Performance, Musical <strong>The</strong>ater, Performing and Visual, Performing<br />

Arts, <strong>The</strong>ater, <strong>The</strong>ater Tech, Visual Arts, Vocal Performance.<br />

2. Humanities/Interdisciplinary: Education, Humanities/Interdisciplinary.<br />

3. Business/Accounting: Accounting, Business, Business Law, Computer Business, Finance,<br />

International Business, Marketing, Travel Business.<br />

4. Math/Science: Engineering, Engineering – Aerospace, Engineering – Electrical, Environmental,<br />

Math and Science, Science and Math.<br />

5. Career: Architecture, Computer Tech, Computerized Mech, Cosmetology, Journalism, Veterinary,<br />

Vision Care Technology.<br />

6. Vocational: Auto, Aviation, Clerical, Construction, Electrical Construction, Health, Heating,<br />

Hospitality, Plumbing, Transportation.<br />

64


7. Government/law: Law, Law Enforcement, Law and Social Justice, Public Service.<br />

8. Other: Communication, Expeditionary, Preservation, Sports.<br />

9. Zoned<br />

10. General: General, Unknown.<br />

Finally, some programs adopt a language <strong>of</strong> instruction other than English. We categorized<br />

the languages into Spanish, English, Asian Languages and Other.<br />

C.4 <strong>School</strong> Sample Construction<br />

We consider the assignment <strong>of</strong> eighth grade students in NYC public middle schools into public<br />

high schools that are not charters, specialized or parochial. Our analysis uses two school sample,<br />

one for each year in our analysis.<br />

To construct these samples, we started with the set <strong>of</strong> schools and programs in the assignment<br />

records. For the analysis <strong>of</strong> rank data, we added the set <strong>of</strong> school programs that were ranked by<br />

any student in our demand sample. This initial set consists <strong>of</strong> 743 (301) programs (schools) in<br />

2002-03 and 677 (293) programs (schools) in 2003-04.<br />

In 2003-04, this list contained 62 parochial school programs. We verified that each <strong>of</strong> the 130<br />

students matriculating to these school programs were private middle-schoolers. <strong>The</strong>se schools<br />

were dropped from the analysis because private middle-schoolers are not in population <strong>of</strong> interest.<br />

Subsequently, we dropped all charter and specialized high school programs and other school<br />

programs which do not have assignments and were not ranked by any student in our sample.<br />

A total <strong>of</strong> 9 continuing student programs accepted students only from their associated middle<br />

school. Since these programs cannot be chosen by students that were not in that school in<br />

eighth grade, we combine these programs with a generic program (e.g., unscreened, English, general/humanities/math).<br />

Rank order lists for students that ranked both the continuing students<br />

only program and the associated program were modified as described below.<br />

Finally, we dropped new and closed schools from the analysis. Closed schools were ones that<br />

admitted students in 2002-03, but not in 2003-04. <strong>The</strong> set <strong>of</strong> new schools was collected from<br />

a separate DOE directory <strong>of</strong> new schools. <strong>The</strong>se schools were not well advertised and very few<br />

students ranked them, making calculations with those schools unreliable.<br />

<strong>The</strong> number <strong>of</strong> schools and programs at each stage <strong>of</strong> our selection procedure is also summarized<br />

in Table B2.<br />

C.5 Program Capacities<br />

Program capacities are not provided separately in the data files. We have estimated program<br />

capacities from the actual match files and students’ final assignments. <strong>The</strong> capacity <strong>of</strong> each<br />

program is initially set to zero. If a student in our demand sample is assigned a program at the<br />

end <strong>of</strong> the assignment process, the capacity <strong>of</strong> the program is increased by one. Otherwise, if<br />

the student is assigned a program in the main round the capacity <strong>of</strong> the program is increased<br />

65


y one. Finally, if a student is not assigned in the main round and assigned a program in the<br />

supplementary round, the capacity <strong>of</strong> the program is increased by one.<br />

Education Option programs are divided into six buckets: High Select, High Random, Middle<br />

Select, Middle Random, Low Select and Low Random. <strong>The</strong> bucket capacities are calculated as<br />

above by taking into account the category <strong>of</strong> the assigned student. For example, if a student <strong>of</strong><br />

High category is assigned an Education Option program, then the capacity <strong>of</strong> a High bucket is<br />

increased by one. If the current capacity <strong>of</strong> the High Select bucket is less than or equal to that <strong>of</strong><br />

High Random, then the capacity <strong>of</strong> the High Select bucket is increased, otherwise the capacity<br />

<strong>of</strong> the High Random bucket is increased.<br />

C.6 Program Priorities<br />

<strong>The</strong> type <strong>of</strong> a program determines how students are priority-ordered for the program. <strong>The</strong><br />

data contains a list <strong>of</strong> all programs with program-specific information, including type, building<br />

number, street address etc. When students have the same priority, the tie is broken randomly.<br />

<strong>The</strong> random numbers are generated by computer during our simulations.<br />

<strong>The</strong> assignment data contains the following fields that determine a student’s priority order at<br />

programs. Priority group is a number assigned by the NYC Department <strong>of</strong> Education depending<br />

on students’ home addresses and location <strong>of</strong> programs etc. High school rank is a number assigned<br />

by each program. This may reflect an student’s ranking among all applicants to an Education<br />

Option program, or whether a student attended the information session <strong>of</strong> an limited unscreened<br />

program, etc. <strong>The</strong>se fields are provided for every student at every program that the student<br />

ranked. Students applying to Educational Option programs are placed into one <strong>of</strong> three categories<br />

based on their score on the 7th grade reading test: top 16 percent (high), middle 68 percent<br />

(middle), and bottom 16 percent (low). Student categories in the assignment data.<br />

Unscreened programs order students based on their random numbers only. Limited unscreened<br />

and formerly zoned programs order students first by priority group, and random number<br />

within priority group. Screened programs order students by priority group, then by high school<br />

rank. Each Education Option program orders all applicants for each <strong>of</strong> six buckets, High Select,<br />

High Random, Middle Select, Middle Random, Low Select and Low Random. A high bucket<br />

orders high category students first, then middle category students, then low category students.<br />

A middle bucket orders middle category students first, then high category students, then low<br />

category students. A low bucket orders low category students first, then high category students,<br />

then middle category students. A select bucket orders students within each category by priority<br />

order, then by high school rank. A random bucket orders students within each category by<br />

priority order.<br />

C.7 Miscellaneous Issues<br />

Modifications to the rank order list<br />

1. Some students ranked a program that were either charter schools or specialized high schools<br />

in the main round. <strong>The</strong>se programs are not in the sample <strong>of</strong> schools we consider and were<br />

likely ranked by the students in error. In such cases, programs were removed from the rank<br />

66


order lists and rank orders lists were made contiguous where all programs ranked below a<br />

program not in the sample were moved up in the rank order lists. <strong>The</strong>se programs were<br />

observed a total <strong>of</strong> 795 times in the data. Thirty students ranked only charter or specialized<br />

programs.<br />

2. <strong>The</strong> rank order lists <strong>of</strong> students that ranked continuing student program were modified as<br />

follows: First, the lists <strong>of</strong> all students that ranked only the continuing student program<br />

were modified so that the student ranked the associated generic program instead. When<br />

students ranked both the generic program and the associated continuing student program,<br />

the list was modified so that only the associated program was ranked, and at the highest <strong>of</strong><br />

the two ranked positions. All programs ranked at positions below the lower ranked <strong>of</strong> the<br />

two programs were moved up by one. A total <strong>of</strong> 46 students ranked both the continuing<br />

program and the generic program we mapped the continuing program to. In 17 cases, these<br />

ranks were not consecutive.<br />

67


Table B1. Student Sample Selection<br />

Mechanism Comparison<br />

Demand Estimation<br />

Uncoordinated <strong>Coordinated</strong> <strong>Coordinated</strong><br />

(1) (2) (3)<br />

Number in the NYC DOE student file 100,669 97,569<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> students in the rank data 87,355<br />

Excluding students in both 2002-­‐03 and 2003-­‐04 files from 2003-­‐04 96,275 86,608<br />

Excluding ninth grade students 92,623 89,062 81,297<br />

Excluding private middle school students 80,833 78,183 71,996<br />

Excluding students with addresses outside the five boroughs 80,725 78,089 71,916<br />

Total number <strong>of</strong> students with known assignments to sample schools 75,515 73,989<br />

Excluding students attending specialized high schools 72,725 70,992<br />

Excluding students attending charter schools 72,681 70,886<br />

Excluding students in closed and new new schools 70,358 66,921<br />

Excluding top 2% students 70,123<br />

Excluding students that did not rank any sample schools 69,907<br />

Notes: Uncoordinated mechanism refers to 2002-­‐03 mechanism and coordinated mechanism refers to the 2003-­‐04 mechanism based on deferred acceptance. A student has invalid census <br />

information if address is missing, cannot be geocoded or places the student outside <strong>of</strong> New York City. A distance observation is invalid if it is missing or is greater than 65 miles.


Table B2. Construction <strong>of</strong> <strong>School</strong> Sample<br />

Uncoordinated Mechanism<br />

<strong>Coordinated</strong> Mechanism<br />

Programs <strong>School</strong>s Programs <strong>School</strong>s<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4)<br />

Programs where NYC public school students assigned 743 301 669 293<br />

Adding additional programs ranked by students 677 294<br />

Excluding parochial schools 681 239 677 294<br />

Excluding specialized schools 669 232 665 287<br />

Excluding charter schools 667 230 663 285<br />

Excluding programs with no assignments or ranking 637 225 648 284<br />

Combining continuing education programs 637 225 639 284<br />

Excluding new and closed schools 612 215 558 235<br />

Programs/schools ranked by students in sample 497 234<br />

Notes: Uncoordinated mechanism refers to 2002-­‐03 mechanism and coordinated mechanism refers to the 2003-­‐04 mechanism based on deferred acceptance. 13 continuining student <br />

programs were merged with a generic program at host school. Parochial schools in 2002-­‐03 only have private middle school students assigned to them and are not ranked by students in <br />

the demand sample.


Table B3. Coverage <strong>of</strong> <strong>School</strong> Characteristics<br />

2002‐03 2003‐04 Both Years<br />

(1) (2) (3)<br />

Total number <strong>of</strong> schools in the sample 215 234 215<br />

Size <strong>of</strong> 9th grade 196 199 189<br />

Race 196 199 189<br />

Attendance Rate 196 199 189<br />

Percent Subsidized Lunch 196 198 189<br />

Percent <strong>of</strong> teachers less than 2 years experience 219 223 212<br />

High Math Achievement 198 200 191<br />

High English Achievement 180 177 173<br />

Percent Attending College 171 167 165<br />

Notes: Uncoordinated mechanism refers to 2002‐03 mechanism and coordinated mechanism refers to the mechanism<br />

based on deferred acceptance used in 2003‐04. Table reports the fraction <strong>of</strong> schools with the characteristics from New<br />

York State Report cards.


Table C1. All Coefficients from Student Preference Estimates<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x <br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Demographics<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Baseline <br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Baseline Achievement<br />

Specifications: <strong>School</strong> Characteristics Student Race<br />

Achievement<br />

All Choices Top Choice Only Top Three Choices<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)<br />

A. Preference for Distance<br />

Distance -­‐0.318*** -­‐0.313*** -­‐0.316*** -­‐0.310*** -­‐0.387*** -­‐0.353***<br />

B. Preference for <strong>School</strong> Characteristics<br />

Size <strong>of</strong> 9th grade (in 100s)<br />

Main effect 0.015*** 0.040*** 0.015*** 0.059*** 0.100*** 0.099***<br />

Female -­‐0.007*** -­‐0.009*** -­‐0.008***<br />

Asian 0.019*** 0.016*** 0.052*** 0.034***<br />

Black -­‐0.040*** -­‐0.038*** -­‐0.042*** -­‐0.044***<br />

Hispanic -­‐0.018*** -­‐0.019*** -­‐0.016*** -­‐0.021***<br />

Baseline Math 0.004*** 0.001** 0.002 0.001<br />

Baseline English -­‐0.006*** -­‐0.003*** -­‐0.009*** -­‐0.005***<br />

No Baseline Math Score -­‐0.027*** -­‐0.010*** -­‐0.033*** -­‐0.019***<br />

No Baseline English Score 0.035*** 0.008*** 0.027*** 0.015***<br />

Subsidized Lunch -­‐0.014*** -­‐0.029*** -­‐0.024***<br />

Neighborhood Income (in 1000s) -­‐0.650*** -­‐1.930*** -­‐1.930***<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient 0.007*** 0.018*** 0.016***<br />

Special Education -­‐0.007*** -­‐0.017*** -­‐0.012***<br />

Percent White<br />

Main effect 0.026*** 0.040*** 0.025*** 0.032*** 0.040*** 0.033***<br />

Female -­‐0.001** -­‐0.001 0.000<br />

Asian -­‐0.016*** -­‐0.015*** -­‐0.027*** -­‐0.018***<br />

Black -­‐0.022*** -­‐0.020*** -­‐0.035*** -­‐0.024***<br />

Hispanic -­‐0.011*** -­‐0.009*** -­‐0.016*** -­‐0.010***<br />

Baseline Math 0.001*** 0.000* 0.000 0.000<br />

Baseline English 0.002*** 0.002*** 0.005*** 0.003***<br />

No Baseline Math Score -­‐0.002*** 0.000 -­‐0.003 -­‐0.001<br />

No Baseline English Score 0.004*** 0.000 0.004* 0.000<br />

Subsidized Lunch 0.001*** 0.003*** 0.002***<br />

Neighborhood Income (in 1000s) 0.911*** 2.000*** 1.000***<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient 0.000 0.000 0.001<br />

Special Education 0.001 0.006*** 0.003***


Table C1. All Coefficients from Student Preference Estimates (cont.)<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x <br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Demographics<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Baseline <br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Baseline Achievement<br />

Specifications: <strong>School</strong> Characteristics Student Race<br />

Achievement<br />

All Choices Top Choice Only Top Three Choices<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)<br />

B. Preference for <strong>School</strong> Characteristics (cont.)<br />

Attendance Rate<br />

Main effect 0.055*** 0.103*** 0.062*** 0.075*** 0.131*** 0.117***<br />

Female 0.002** 0.009*** 0.005***<br />

Asian 0.013*** 0.016*** 0.076*** 0.039***<br />

Black -­‐0.053*** -­‐0.036*** -­‐0.040*** -­‐0.046***<br />

Hispanic -­‐0.053*** -­‐0.037*** -­‐0.040*** -­‐0.047***<br />

Baseline Math 0.012*** 0.010*** 0.017*** 0.015***<br />

Baseline English 0.014*** 0.014*** 0.020*** 0.021***<br />

No Baseline Math Score -­‐0.024*** -­‐0.016*** -­‐0.046*** -­‐0.026***<br />

No Baseline English Score 0.010*** -­‐0.004** 0.009* 0.000<br />

Subsidized Lunch 0.000 -­‐0.008*** -­‐0.005***<br />

Neighborhood Income (in 1000s) 6.000*** 8.000*** 7.000***<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient 0.006*** 0.014*** 0.012***<br />

Special Education 0.004*** -­‐0.008* 0.005*<br />

Percent Subsidized Lunch<br />

Main effect -­‐0.002*** -­‐0.007*** -­‐0.003*** -­‐0.004*** 0.005*** -­‐0.003**<br />

Female -­‐0.001*** 0.000 0.000<br />

Asian 0.000 -­‐0.001 -­‐0.004*** -­‐0.001<br />

Black 0.002*** 0.001** -­‐0.008*** -­‐0.002***<br />

Hispanic 0.010*** 0.009*** 0.007*** 0.010***<br />

Baseline Math -­‐0.001*** -­‐0.001*** 0.000 -­‐0.001**<br />

Baseline English -­‐0.001*** -­‐0.001*** -­‐0.001* -­‐0.001**<br />

No Baseline Math Score -­‐0.001 0.001** 0.000 0.002<br />

No Baseline English Score 0.005*** 0.002*** 0.005*** 0.003***<br />

Subsidized Lunch 0.000 -­‐0.002** -­‐0.001***<br />

Neighborhood Income (in 1000s) -­‐0.722*** -­‐1.000*** -­‐0.736***<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient 0.000 0.003*** 0.002***<br />

Special Education 0.001*** -­‐0.001 0.001


Table C1. All Coefficients from Student Preference Estimates (cont.)<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x <br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Demographics<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Baseline <br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Baseline Achievement<br />

Specifications: <strong>School</strong> Characteristics Student Race<br />

Achievement<br />

All Choices Top Choice Only Top Three Choices<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)<br />

B. Preference for <strong>School</strong> Characteristics (cont.)<br />

High Math Achievement<br />

Main effect 0.008*** 0.007*** 0.004*** 0.000 0.001 -­‐0.001<br />

Female 0.002*** 0.002*** 0.003***<br />

Asian 0.009*** 0.010*** 0.014*** 0.013***<br />

Black -­‐0.004*** 0.000 0.005*** 0.002**<br />

Hispanic -­‐0.001* 0.004*** 0.009*** 0.007***<br />

Baseline Math 0.008*** 0.007*** 0.012*** 0.009***<br />

Baseline English 0.005*** 0.005*** 0.006*** 0.005***<br />

No Baseline Math Score 0.000 0.001 0.008*** 0.002**<br />

No Baseline English Score 0.002*** 0.000 -­‐0.005*** 0.000<br />

Subsidized Lunch -­‐0.003*** -­‐0.005*** -­‐0.005***<br />

Neighborhood Income (in 1000s) 0.119* -­‐0.712*** -­‐0.242**<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>icient -­‐0.002*** -­‐0.003* -­‐0.005***<br />

Special Education -­‐0.003*** 0.000 -­‐0.001<br />

Spanish Language Program 5.147*** 5.755*** 5.472***<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>iciency -­‐3.142*** -­‐3.817*** -­‐3.147***<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>iciency x Hispanic<br />

Asian Language Program 3.687*** 4.253*** 4.203***<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>iciency -­‐2.131*** -­‐3.299*** -­‐2.717***<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>iciency x Asian<br />

Other Language Program 2.289*** 2.947*** 2.870***<br />

Limited English Pr<strong>of</strong>iciency<br />

Program Type Dummies X X X X X X<br />

Program Specialty Dummies X X X X X X


Table C1. All Coefficients from Student Preference Estimates (cont.)<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x <br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x <br />

Student Baseline <br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Demographics<br />

<strong>School</strong> Characteristics x Student Baseline Achievement<br />

Specifications: <strong>School</strong> Characteristics Student Race<br />

Achievement<br />

All Choices Top Choice Only Top Three Choices<br />

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)<br />

C. Model Diagnostics<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> ranks 542,666 542,666 542,666 542,666 69,907 197,245<br />

Number <strong>of</strong> parameters 248 272 280 349 349 349<br />

Log likelihood -­‐2,726,580 -­‐2,714,493 -­‐2,710,042 -­‐2,690,008 -­‐302,141 -­‐906,942<br />

Variance within students 4.93 4.98 5.00 5.62 8.96 7.43<br />

Variance between students 4.68 8.23 7.79 12.26 32.85 23.48<br />

Pseudo R-­‐squared 0.85 0.00 0.89 0.00 0.89 0.91<br />

Fraction <strong>of</strong> variance explained by <br />

school observables<br />

0.43 0.00 0.68 0.00 0.42 0.63<br />

Notes: This table reports all parameter estimates corresponding to Table 6. Maximum likelihood estimates from demand systems with 69,907 students and submitted ranks over 497 program choices <br />

in 234 schools. Estimates use all submitted ranks except in columns (4)-­‐(6). Column (1) contains no interactions between student and school characteristics. Column (2) contains interactions <strong>of</strong> race <br />

dummies with all school characteristics. Column (3) contains interactions <strong>of</strong> Math and English score with all school characteristics. Columns (4)-­‐(6) contain interactions <strong>of</strong> gender, race, achievement, <br />

special education, limited English pr<strong>of</strong>iciency, subsidized lunch, and median 2000 census block group family income with all school characteristics. Number <strong>of</strong> parameters correspond to parameters <br />

outside <strong>of</strong> delta. Fraction <strong>of</strong> variance explained by school observables is R-­‐squared <strong>of</strong> projection <strong>of</strong> mean utility on school attributes. * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%

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