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1.3 Supply Areas 1.3.1 Supply areas Mallee System Since the early 1990s almost 13,000 ha of mallees have been established in WA but there is potential for expansion into other areas of the wheat/sheep zone in southern Australia (see Figure 1.1). The mallee in WA is the largest resource available for start-up industries and market development but it is relatively scattered and not properly quantified at present. The two most concentrated centres of activity are in the Central Wheatbelt (the Shires of Dalwallinu, Mount Marshall and Koorda) and the Upper Great Southern (Shires of Narrogin, Cuballing, Wickepin, Wagin and Kulin) (URS, 2008). Each of these regions could possibly supply 20,000 to 50,000 green tonnes per year on sustainable basis. This figure could be properly determined with a GIS-based inventory and site assessment. The total land area in southern Australia that may be suitable for expansion of mallee and other short rotation woody crops (see Figure 1.1) is summarised in Table 1.5(a). There is potential for expansion of the model into central Queensland, using appropriate species for that environment. The estimates in the literature of potential woody biomass production from the land area in Table 1.5(b) vary widely, depending upon the assumptions of the proportion of land area that will be planted and the growth rates. For this description of potential biomass production, we have followed the example of Peck et al (2011), where it is recognised that mallees need to be big enough for economical harvesting, in that there must be about 20 green tonnes or more of biomass per kilometre of row to achieve economical pour rates through the harvester. It is not the maximum mean annual increment that determines potential production, but the mean annual increment over the whole rotation from one harvest to the next. This can often be less than the maximum MAI, especially in the lowest rainfall zones where annual growth rates are observed to decline part way through a rotation when rotations of seven or more years are required to achieve harvestable yields. The proportion of land area that is planted to mallees or other crops is a very broad assumption, but the assumptions in Table 1.5(c) are that a small proportion of land will be utilised because farmers will opt to use mallee as a diversification of the farm enterprise, not as the principal farm enterprise. Potential production is not adoption. Estimates of future biomass production made by the Future Farm Industries CRC, taking an industry development perspective from the biomass processor side, rather than starting from the area of land under agriculture, indicate that in the southern states, about 160,000 to 170,000 hectares of land may be under mallees, producing about 2.6 million green tonnes per year, by 2025 – 2030 (FFI CRC, 2010). The potential to produce significant quantities of biomass exists due to our large land base, but development of processing industries will strongly influence how quickly this potential is realised. 19

Table 1.5(a) State Land area devoted to cropping and pasture in Southern Australia (Bartle et al, 2007) Millions of hectares by rainfall zone (mm mean annual rainfall) Totals 300-400 400-500 500-600 New South Wales 4.2 7.3 5.3 16.8 South Australia 4.3 2.5 1.1 7.9 Victoria 2.9 2.1 2.2 7.2 Western Australia 10.9 3.8 1.9 16.6 Totals 22.3 15.7 10.5 48.5 Table 1.5(b) Mean annual increment to harvestable size 1 of mallees growing in two row belts for each rainfall zone (adapted from Peck et al 2011) 2 Rainfall zone (mm mean annual rainfall) 300-400 400-500 500-600 Age at harvest 7 5 4 MAI (green tonnes per hectare per year) 7 14 15 1 Harvestable size is defined as when the crop yields about 20 green tonnes per kilometre of row, which allows an efficient pour rate of at least 60 gt/h to be achieved by the harvester. 2 The data have been adjusted to allow for the differences in assumed belt widths; Peck et al (2011) assumed a 6 m width occupied by a 2 row belt, we have assumed a 7 m width, with a 3 m inter-row spacing to allow better access for harvesting. Table 1.5(c) Potential annual biomass production for mallees growing in two row belts, by rainfall zone Rainfall zone (mm mean annual rainfall) 300-400 400-500 500-600 Total annual biomass production Assumed proportion of farmland planted to 3% - 5% 4% - 6% 5% - 7% 20

1.3 Supply Areas<br />

1.3.1 Supply areas<br />

Mallee System<br />

Since the early 1990s almost 13,000 ha <strong>of</strong> mallees have been established in WA but there is potential<br />

for expansion into other areas <strong>of</strong> the wheat/sheep zone in southern Australia (see Figure 1.1). The<br />

mallee in WA is the largest resource available for start-up industries and market development but it is<br />

relatively scattered and not properly quantified at present. The two most concentrated centres <strong>of</strong><br />

activity are in the Central Wheatbelt (the Shires <strong>of</strong> Dalwallinu, Mount Marshall and Koorda) and the<br />

Upper Great <strong>Southern</strong> (Shires <strong>of</strong> Narrogin, Cuballing, Wickepin, Wagin and Kulin) (URS, 2008).<br />

Each <strong>of</strong> these regions could possibly supply 20,000 to 50,000 green tonnes per year on sustainable<br />

basis. This figure could be properly determined with a GIS-based inventory and site assessment.<br />

The total land area in southern Australia that may be suitable for expansion <strong>of</strong> mallee and other short<br />

rotation woody crops (see Figure 1.1) is summarised in Table 1.5(a). There is potential for expansion<br />

<strong>of</strong> the model into central <strong>Queensland</strong>, using appropriate species for that environment. The estimates<br />

in the literature <strong>of</strong> potential woody biomass production from the land area in Table 1.5(b) vary<br />

widely, depending upon the assumptions <strong>of</strong> the proportion <strong>of</strong> land area that will be planted and the<br />

growth rates.<br />

For this description <strong>of</strong> potential biomass production, we have followed the example <strong>of</strong> Peck et al<br />

(2011), where it is recognised that mallees need to be big enough for economical harvesting, in that<br />

there must be about 20 green tonnes or more <strong>of</strong> biomass per kilometre <strong>of</strong> row to achieve economical<br />

pour rates through the harvester. It is not the maximum mean annual increment that determines<br />

potential production, but the mean annual increment over the whole rotation from one harvest to the<br />

next. This can <strong>of</strong>ten be less than the maximum MAI, especially in the lowest rainfall zones where<br />

annual growth rates are observed to decline part way through a rotation when rotations <strong>of</strong> seven or<br />

more years are required to achieve harvestable yields.<br />

The proportion <strong>of</strong> land area that is planted to mallees or other crops is a very broad assumption, but<br />

the assumptions in Table 1.5(c) are that a small proportion <strong>of</strong> land will be utilised because farmers<br />

will opt to use mallee as a diversification <strong>of</strong> the farm enterprise, not as the principal farm enterprise.<br />

Potential production is not adoption. Estimates <strong>of</strong> future biomass production made by the Future<br />

Farm Industries CRC, taking an industry development perspective from the biomass processor side,<br />

rather than starting from the area <strong>of</strong> land under agriculture, indicate that in the southern states, about<br />

160,000 to 170,000 hectares <strong>of</strong> land may be under mallees, producing about 2.6 million green tonnes<br />

per year, by 2025 – 2030 (FFI CRC, 2010). The potential to produce significant quantities <strong>of</strong> biomass<br />

exists due to our large land base, but development <strong>of</strong> processing industries will strongly influence<br />

how quickly this potential is realised.<br />

19

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