Land tenure inequality, harvests, and rural conflict ... - e-Archivo
Land tenure inequality, harvests, and rural conflict ... - e-Archivo
Land tenure inequality, harvests, and rural conflict ... - e-Archivo
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Moreover, most of the literature on state dependence focusses on 0,1<br />
sequences in which long series of 0s are followed by long series of 1s. Typically, this<br />
puts most empirircal exercises closer to duration data analysis, for example in the case<br />
of state failure (Beck, Epstein, Jackman, 2002), transitions between non-employment<br />
<strong>and</strong> employment (Heckman, 1981) or export behavior of firms (Esteve-Pérez <strong>and</strong><br />
Rodríguez, 2009). In the case studied here, however, I observe long sequences of 0s,<br />
punctuated by the occasional 1. The explanation for the l<strong>and</strong>scape of 0s <strong>and</strong> 1s is that<br />
several months display very low levels of strike activity. The main solution adopted<br />
here for state <strong>and</strong> time dependence is considering previous realizations of the<br />
dependent variable <strong>and</strong> temporal dummy variables to allow for changes in the<br />
baseline probability. Apart from proxying for unobserved laborers’ bargaining power,<br />
the monthly dummy variables will in principle absorb the dependence of sequential<br />
<strong>conflict</strong>s.<br />
With the hypotheses from the literature, I estimate the following panel probit<br />
models for the probability of observing a strike or invasion episode in town i in month<br />
t for all towns in the provinces of Córdoba, Jaén <strong>and</strong> Seville from April 1931 to July<br />
1934.<br />
[1] prob (<strong>rural</strong> strike=1) i, t = ß0 + ß1' ·Xi + ß2' ·X i,t + ß3' ·X t + µ i,t<br />
[2] prob (<strong>rural</strong> strike=1) i, t = ß4 + ß5' · Xi + ß6' ·X i,t + ß7' ·X t + ∂i + µ i,t<br />
[3] prob (collective trespassing =1) i, t = ß8 + ß9' ·Xi + ß10' ·X i,t + ß11' ·X t + µ i,t<br />
[4] prob (collective trespassing =1) i, t = ß12 + ß13' ·Xi + ß14' ·X i,t + ß15' ·X t +∂i + µ i,t<br />
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