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BAYESIAN THEISM AND PASCAL’S WAGER 409
equal risk of loss and gain. But there is an eternity of life and happiness. (Pascal 1670:
§233)
Pascal’s certainty that in betting on God’s existence there is nothing to lose and an
extraordinary high revenue to earn is based on a hidden assumption which closely resembles
the basic attitude of the sober RWE-supporter towards the match of his quite mediocre team
against the international powerhouse FC Barcelona: if he loses, he loses nothing due to
motive (A) above, not to mention what he could earn if Erfurt scored first at some point of the
match and managed to defend its goalposts for the rest of it – cf. motive (B).
By analogy, Pascal would have written some things in vain in case that God does not exist. But
he would not have written them without having got some joy from writing them. Additionally
to this not inconsiderable joy, Pascal had an expectation of oceans of joy in case that God
exists to reward those who believe in Him.
Of course, it needs someone like an RWE-supporter to fail regretting a lost bet on the victory
of Erfurt over Barcelona. Many others would feel unpleasant after a lost bet like this (“Stupid
me! It said “Erfurt”, not “Frankfurt”!). Likewise, it needs a Pascal to fail regretting a lost bet
on the existence of God. Others, let us say Richard Dawkins, would very much regret to have
worshipped God in their young years and would consider this a waste of time if nothing
worse. Pascal’s argument does not show that everyone should consider the bet for the
hypothesis that God exists a win-win-situation. It rather shows that it is irrational not to bet
on the existence of God if you already (and gladly) conform with what God is supposed to
demand you to do.
4. A Bayesian Wager
In Mark 9:24 the father of a young epileptic who asks Jesus to cure his child from epilepsy
cries for help. However it is not only help for the boy’s health after which the father seeks.
After being informed by Jesus (Mark 9:23) that the faith of the saved is the prime cause of
salvation and estimating his own faith as low, the father of the young epileptic in Mark 9:24
seeks help for his unbelief also. Curiously enough, the father does nothing wrong to fear of
being characterized as unfaithful. He asks Jesus for help and, in fact, he claims to believe in
Jesus and in the cure of his boy. Nevertheless, at the same time he asks Jesus to help his
unbelief. I think that this can be seen as a clear case of cognitive dissonance – and of one
which is not very uncommon.
Some of the readers will have had acquaintances with persons similar to the father of Mark
9:24. People who behave like devote Christians but have to admit that their faith is weak:
people who are good in the moral sense and vegan in terms of diet (fasting is very essential in
the Roman-Catholic as well as in the Orthodox Church), unselfish and caring, monogamous
and never frivolous but have to admit to be sceptics if they isolate the moral issues from their
intellectual frame of mind.
The case of the father in Mark 9:24 and the moral vegan sceptic have many similarities with
the sober supporter of Rot-Weiß Erfurt, of whom I have already spoken. Like the sober RWEsupporter
would enjoy the victory of his team against Barcelona although he has to admit that
Barcelona is the stronger team, the father in Mark 9:24 and the moral vegan sceptic would
enjoy to see the theistic arguments victorious in their struggle against the superior scientific
mainstream. In a way very similar to the sober RWE-supporter’s way, the moral vegan sceptic
makes the same sacrifices which religious persons would make. But these virtues are only
because of her moral intuitions. By contrast to the religious, the moral vegan sceptic is
intellectually not certain of God’s existence neither is she certain whether worshipping God is
a good idea.