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US-Listed ETFs Sorted by Asset Class and Year-to-Date Return

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German <strong>ETFs</strong>: Now Or Never?<br />

By Paul Baiocchi<br />

When it comes <strong>to</strong> hunting for bargains<br />

in Europe in the past few years, all eyes<br />

have been on PIIGS, for better or worse.<br />

Portugal, Irel<strong>and</strong>, Italy, Greece <strong>and</strong> Spain<br />

have overshadowed more developed European<br />

nations in many inves<strong>to</strong>rs’ minds.<br />

But when the sovereign debt crisis boiled<br />

over last summer, inves<strong>to</strong>rs left the PIIGS<br />

behind <strong>and</strong> headed <strong>to</strong> Germany.<br />

As the continent’s largest <strong>and</strong> most dynamic<br />

economy, Germany holds much of<br />

the eurozone’s future in its h<strong>and</strong>s. During<br />

the summer meltdown, Germany’s status<br />

as the anchor of the eurozone meant any<br />

bailout plans had <strong>to</strong> be cleared <strong>by</strong> Berlin.<br />

The country proved incredibly resilient in<br />

the face of the global credit crisis, bouncing<br />

back from a 4.7 percent decline in<br />

GDP in 2009 <strong>to</strong> post a 3.6 percent rise in<br />

2010. Unlike its European brethren, Germany<br />

managed <strong>to</strong> keep unemployment<br />

below 10 percent even during the recession<br />

of 2008-09. In fact, Germany’s 7.4<br />

percent unemployment rate in 2010 was<br />

its lowest since reunification.<br />

Will Germany’s economy continue<br />

<strong>to</strong> power forward unabated? Or will the<br />

headwinds facing its economy, both internally<br />

<strong>and</strong> externally, overwhelm inves<strong>to</strong>r<br />

returns? While returns may not match<br />

those realized <strong>by</strong> inves<strong>to</strong>rs since the market<br />

bot<strong>to</strong>m, German-focused <strong>ETFs</strong> have significant<br />

positives in their favor right now.<br />

Currently, there are two <strong>ETFs</strong> that target<br />

Germany exclusively (see Figure 1):<br />

the well-established iShares MSCI Germany<br />

Index Fund (NYSE Arca: EWG), which<br />

launched in March 1996 <strong>and</strong> has nearly $3<br />

billion in assets; <strong>and</strong> the br<strong>and</strong>-new Market<br />

Vec<strong>to</strong>rs Germany Small-Cap ETF (NYSE<br />

Arca: GERJ), which launched in early April,<br />

just days before this issue went <strong>to</strong> print.<br />

A Bumpy Road Ahead?<br />

Despite its resiliency in recent times, the<br />

German economy is not without its warts.<br />

The German population is relatively old,<br />

with an average age of 44.9 years. This is<br />

a product of the country’s low birth rate<br />

as well as its low population growth rate,<br />

Will Germany’s<br />

economy continue<br />

<strong>to</strong> power forward<br />

unabated? Or will<br />

the headwinds<br />

facing its economy,<br />

both internally <strong>and</strong><br />

externally, overwhelm<br />

inves<strong>to</strong>r returns?<br />

both of which put Germany low in the<br />

global rankings, in the 17th percentile.<br />

More troubling, however, is the reliance<br />

of the eurozone on Germany. The<br />

sovereign debt issues of the eurozone<br />

have the potential <strong>to</strong> drag on the German<br />

economy, as any further bailouts<br />

will require significant German involvement.<br />

Not only do German banks have<br />

exposure <strong>to</strong> the sovereign issues of the<br />

PIIGS, but bailouts of its European counterparts<br />

would raise the specter of higher<br />

taxes, putting pressure on German consumers.<br />

Over 50 percent of German exports<br />

are <strong>to</strong> other European countries,<br />

making further economic turmoil in the<br />

region a significant risk <strong>to</strong> the continued<br />

prosperity of the German economy. A<br />

strong euro also makes German exports<br />

<strong>to</strong> the U.S. <strong>and</strong> China—which <strong>to</strong>gether<br />

currently receive over 14 percent of Germany’s<br />

exports—less competitive.<br />

As with virtually every country on<br />

the planet right now, Germany also has<br />

much <strong>to</strong> fear from inflation. German<br />

consumer prices have risen sharply in the<br />

first half of the year. The prices of all basic<br />

materials are on the rise, with the rise<br />

in the price of oil being exacerbated <strong>by</strong><br />

uncertainty in the Middle East. Because<br />

Germany has a daily deficit of over 2.5<br />

million barrels of oil <strong>and</strong> 81 billion cubic<br />

meters of natural gas, rising energy prices<br />

pose a significant economic threat <strong>to</strong><br />

company margins; specifically, iron <strong>and</strong><br />

steel producers. It should also be noted<br />

that Germany has very little <strong>to</strong> nothing<br />

in the way of domestic companies operating<br />

in the energy sec<strong>to</strong>r, meaning it is<br />

not only shelling out for things like natural<br />

gas <strong>and</strong> oil, it is not benefiting in any<br />

way from the rising prices.<br />

For inves<strong>to</strong>rs, these issues are likely <strong>to</strong><br />

impact newcomer GERJ more than the<br />

entrenched EWG; the small-cap fund has<br />

a far greater weight in the industrials <strong>and</strong><br />

consumer discretionary sec<strong>to</strong>rs at nearly<br />

50 percent of the fund, in addition <strong>to</strong> a<br />

negligible weighting in consumer staples<br />

(see Figure 2). Meanwhile, EWG’s collective<br />

weighting in those three sec<strong>to</strong>rs is less<br />

than 35 percent of its portfolio.<br />

The Good News<br />

Despite the potential pitfalls, Germany’s<br />

economy remains vital. The country<br />

boasts a highly skilled workforce <strong>and</strong> a<br />

literacy rate in excess of 99 percent. Seventy<br />

percent of the German economy<br />

comes from the service sec<strong>to</strong>r, bolstered<br />

<strong>by</strong> a reputation for tech-savviness <strong>and</strong><br />

the world’s most advanced telecommunications<br />

network.<br />

And despite their reliance on European<br />

buyers, the specific buyers—France,<br />

the Netherl<strong>and</strong>s, the U.K., Switzerl<strong>and</strong>,<br />

Belgium <strong>and</strong> Austria—are in much better<br />

shape than the faltering economies<br />

that make the headlines. Furthermore,<br />

Germany’s export growth <strong>to</strong> China has<br />

accelerated in recent years, as the world’s<br />

fastest-growing economy is now the<br />

country’s second-largest cus<strong>to</strong>mer.<br />

Tough Choices For Inves<strong>to</strong>rs<br />

The German economy has provided inves<strong>to</strong>rs<br />

with strong returns ever since the<br />

ETFR • May 2011 7

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