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El Salvador - GFDRR

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114 | <strong>El</strong> <strong>Salvador</strong>: Damage, Loss, and Needs Assesment<br />

worsened prospects or made them more negative. As a result, the evaluations indicate the opportunities<br />

to change policy directions, improve previous structural conditions, and generate significant changes in<br />

risk management. A summary of these evaluations, conducted by CEPAL, is presented below.<br />

TABLE 45. SUMMARY OF ASSESSMENTS MADE BY CEPAL IN EL SALVADOR<br />

Event<br />

Earthquake (5.6 on the Richter<br />

scale) on June 19; drought in<br />

July and August, and storm from<br />

September 16 to 20.<br />

Earthquake (5.4 on the Richter<br />

scale).<br />

Hurricane Mitch (sustained winds<br />

of up to 144 knots or 285 km/h<br />

at time of highest intensity and<br />

precipitation exceeding 600 mm).<br />

January 13 (tectonic earthquake,<br />

7.6 on the Richter scale), February<br />

13 (independent event, 6.6 on the<br />

Richter scale).<br />

Drought with effects mainly on<br />

Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala<br />

and <strong>El</strong> <strong>Salvador</strong><br />

Torrential rains, Tropical Storm Stan<br />

and eruption of Ilamtepec volcano,<br />

October 2005<br />

Population<br />

affected<br />

Total effects<br />

(2007 constant value)<br />

External<br />

Year Deaths Direct Total Damages Losses effect<br />

1982 600 20,000 1,828 1,395 432 548<br />

1986, Oct. 10 1 200 520,000 7,293 5,526 1,767 1,459<br />

1998, Oct. 23 –<br />

Nov. 4<br />

240 84,316 549 240 309 103<br />

2001, Jan. – Feb. 1 241 2,351,886 5,476 3,410 2,066 1,059<br />

2001 35 600,000 234 0 234 80<br />

2005 69 72,141 383 172 211 107<br />

TOTAL 23 3,385 3,648,343 15,763 10,743 5,020 3,357<br />

Average per event 564 608,057 2,627 1,791 837 559<br />

Source: Evaluations by CEPAL.<br />

Climate change models forecast that <strong>El</strong> <strong>Salvador</strong> will be subjected to warming and a trend toward<br />

drought. It is expected to receive more frequent heat waves, periods of drought and less intense rains, as<br />

well as increasing sea levels, as is predicted for the rest of Mesoamerica. It is known that the interannual<br />

variability of climate, whether from the Pacific or the Atlantic, explains a significant amount of the total<br />

variation in precipitation in the Caribbean and Central America. The combination of the abovementioned<br />

likely impacts of climate change, together with the possibility of greater frequency of the <strong>El</strong> Niño Southern<br />

Oscillation (ENSO), would aggravate existing health problems as well as the social and economic challenges<br />

that affect <strong>El</strong> <strong>Salvador</strong>.<br />

<strong>El</strong> <strong>Salvador</strong> has adopted the recommendations of the strategic objectives and priority actions of<br />

the “Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to<br />

disasters.” 52 With the objective of supporting countries in monitoring and compliance with the Hyogo<br />

52<br />

World Conference on Disaster Reduction, held from January 18 to 22, 2005, Kobe, Oigo, Japan. http://www.unisdr.org/<br />

eng/hfa/docs/Hyogo-framework-for-action-english.pdf

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