El Salvador - GFDRR

More documents

Recommendations

Info

108 | El Salvador: Damage, Loss, and Needs Assesment from the Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF) in the amount of US$2.5 million and the conduction of an international Flash Appeal to collect funds for emergency humanitarian needs, estimated at US$13 million. Finally, it is expected that other grants that were planned for 2010 and the medium term can be reallocated for reconstruction. Moreover, El Salvador reached a new financial agreement with the World Bank for US$650 million, after the Bank’s Board of Directors approved a Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) on November 24, 2009. This covers a period of three years and contemplates a program for technical assistance and analysis to support efforts to reduce poverty and inequality by means of three objectives: to solidify the groundwork for economic recovery, addressing macroeconomic and institutional vulnerabilities; to improve the provision of social services; and to increase economic opportunities, especially for the poor. The government is committed to the objective of maintaining fiscal sustainability in the medium term; therefore, reconstruction and damage repair activities must be incorporated in the five-year plan that is presently being prepared. This implies that public spending must be reoriented and prioritized within the existing fiscal period. In the short term, due to the availability of resources from grants and loans, the NFPS deficit is expected to increase from 5.4% to 5.5% of the GDP following the disaster. This increase takes into account the expenditures incurred for the humanitarian aid stage and assumes that 10% of the works to be financed by resources reallocated from the IDB loan will be executed. For 2010, the deficit is expected to increase from 4.4% to 4.5% of the GDP following the disaster. This increase assumes that 100% of the IDB loan will be executed, according to the requirements of this loan, and 20% of resources from the US$120 million that were reallocated for this purpose. Moreover, it is assumed that 100% of the PEIS resources originally considered under the original budget will be executed and would be financed by a new issuance of bonds. For the medium term, the deficit and indebtedness profile is expected to return to the baseline scenario. In light of these assumptions, the NFPS debt profile is expected to increase from 39.7% of the GDP in 2008 to 49.7% in 2011, and then begin to decrease in the medium term, as foreseen prior to the hurricane. iii) Financial policy. The hurricane’s foreseeable effects on interest rates are clearly null in the post-Ida scenario. Moreover, the estimates made using available information indicate that no abrupt changes are expected in the NFPS’s projected fiscal deficit, or in changes in the stock of international reserves. Thus, it is unlikely to expect a variation in the financial and monetary scenario due to the hurricane.
IV. ECONOMIC IMPACT | 109 TABLE 43, FISCAL IMPACT OF THE DISASTER, 2009-2014 (in millions of US$ and percentages of GDP) Baseline Scenario Post-Disaster Scenario 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Transactions Prel. Revenue and Grants 3,732.0 3,431.0 3,915.3 4,244.3 4,776.3 5,289.0 5,637.6 3,434.1 3,915.3 4,244.3 4,776.3 5,289.0 5,637.6 A. Current Revenue 3,679.0 3,319.3 3,733.5 4,056.4 4,639.0 5,198.3 5,601.5 3,319.3 3,733.5 4,056.4 4,639.0 5,198.3 5,601.5 B. Capital Revenue 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 C. Grants 52.9 114.7 181.8 187.9 137.3 90.0 36.1 114.7 181.8 187.9 137.3 90.0 36.1 Expenditures, Concessions, Loans 4,415.5 4,617.0 4,900.4 5,080.8 5,394.9 5,794.4 6,167.4 4,632.0 4,947.4 5,110.8 5,424.9 5,824.4 6,197.4 A. Current Expenditures 3,754.4 3,905.3 4,124.9 4,244.1 5,515.7 4,824.1 5,131.0 3,905.3 4,124.9 4,244.1 4,515.7 4,824.1 5,131.0 B. Capital Expenditures 661.7 711.7 776.4 837.7 880.2 971.4 1,037.5 726.7 823.4 867.7 910.2 1,001.4 1,067.5 C. Net Conscession of Loans –0.6 –1.0 –1.0 –1.0 –1.0 –1.0 –1.0 –1.0 –1.0 –1.0 –1.0 Primary Deficit –163.9 –299.2 –118.5 139.8 292.5 309.2 –346.2 –118.5 139.8 292.5 309.2 Overall Surplus (Deficit) Including Grants with Pensions –683.5 1,182.9 –985.0 –836.4 –618.6 –505.4 –529.8 1,197.9 1,032.1 866.4 648.6 535.4 559.8 2. Excluding Grants –736.4 –1,166.8 –1,024.3 –755.9 –596.2 565.9 –1,213.8 –1,024.3 –755.9 –596.2 –656.9 3. Including Grants w/o Pensions –362.8 –642.2 –450.9 –214.3 –72.7 –79.0 –671.2 –450.9 –214.3 –72.7 –79.0 Deficit as % of GDP –3.1 5.4 –4.4 –3.6 –2.5 –1.9 –1.8 5.5 4.5 3.7 2.6 2.0 1.9 Total Financing 687.1 1,182.9 985.0 836.4 618.6 505.4 529.8 1,197.9 1,032.0 836.4 618.6 505.4 529.8 Net External Financing 126.8 1,395.4 486.3 422.2 297.5 195.3 148.6 1,395.4 806.3 422.2 297.5 195.3 148.6 Net Internal Financing 560.3 –199.9 498.7 414.3 321.1 310.1 381.2 –184.9 225.7 414.3 321.1 310.1 381.2 Unfinanced Gap –3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Source: CEPAL, IDB and IMF based on official figures.
Page 1:
El Salvador Damage, Loss, and Needs
Page 5 and 6:
| iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We wish to e
Page 7 and 8:
Acknowledgement | v The external su
Page 9 and 10:
| 1 PRESENTATION At the request of
Page 11 and 12:
| 3 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Through
Page 13 and 14:
| 5 I. DESCRIPTION OF THE EVENT A.
Page 15 and 16:
I. DESCRIPTION OF THE EVENT | 7 The
Page 17 and 18:
I. DESCRIPTION OF THE EVENT | 9 IMA
Page 19 and 20:
I. DESCRIPTION OF THE EVENT | 11 IM
Page 21 and 22:
I. DESCRIPTION OF THE EVENT | 13 Sp
Page 23 and 24:
I. DESCRIPTION OF THE EVENT | 15 As
Page 25 and 26:
I. DESCRIPTION OF THE EVENT | 17 C.
Page 27 and 28:
I. DESCRIPTION OF THE EVENT | 19 po
Page 29 and 30:
I. DESCRIPTION OF THE EVENT | 21 GR
Page 31 and 32:
| 23 II. POPULATION AND AFFECTED AR
Page 33 and 34:
II. POPULATION AND AFFECTED AREAS |
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38:
Page 39 and 40:
Page 41 and 42:
Page 43 and 44:
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Page 51 and 52:
Page 53 and 54:
Page 55 and 56:
Page 57 and 58:
Page 59 and 60:
Page 61 and 62:
Page 63 and 64:
Page 65 and 66: II. POPULATION AND AFFECTED AREAS |
Page 97: II. POPULATION AND AFFECTED AREAS |
Page 100 and 101: 92 | El Salvador: Damage, Loss, and
Page 108 and 109: 100 | El Salvador: Damage, Loss, an
Page 160: AUSTRALIA BELGIUM BRAZIL CANADA DEN
show all

El Salvador - GFDRR

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?