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Preventive Resettlement of Populations at Risk of Disaster - GFDRR

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Figure 1.11. Pressures th<strong>at</strong> Result in <strong>Disaster</strong>s – Pressure and Release (PAR) Model<br />

Root<br />

Causes<br />

Dynamic<br />

Pressures<br />

Unsafe<br />

Conditions<br />

<strong>Disaster</strong><br />

Hazards<br />

Limited<br />

access to:<br />

· Power<br />

· Structures<br />

· Resources<br />

Ideologies<br />

· Political systems<br />

· Economic<br />

systems<br />

Lack <strong>of</strong>:<br />

· Local institutions<br />

· Training<br />

· Appropri<strong>at</strong>e skills<br />

· Local investments<br />

· Local markets<br />

· Press freedom<br />

· Ethical standards<br />

in public life<br />

Macro-forces:<br />

· Rapid popul<strong>at</strong>ion growth<br />

· Rapid urbaniz<strong>at</strong>ion<br />

· Arms expenditure<br />

· Debt repayment schedules<br />

· Deforest<strong>at</strong>ion<br />

· Decline in soil productivity<br />

Fragile physical<br />

environment:<br />

· Dangerous loc<strong>at</strong>ions<br />

· Unprotected buildings<br />

and infrastructure<br />

Fragile local economy:<br />

· Livelihoods <strong>at</strong> risk<br />

· Low income levels<br />

Vulnerable society:<br />

· Special groups <strong>at</strong> risk<br />

· Lack <strong>of</strong> local institutions<br />

Public actions:<br />

· Lack <strong>of</strong> disaster<br />

preparedness<br />

· Prevalence <strong>of</strong> endemic<br />

disease<br />

<strong>Risk</strong> =<br />

hazard +<br />

vulnerability<br />

· Earthquake<br />

· High winds<br />

(cyclone /<br />

hurricane /<br />

typhoon)<br />

· Flooding<br />

· Volcanic eruption<br />

· Landslide<br />

· Drought<br />

· Virus and pests<br />

Source: Blaikie, Piers; Cannon, Terry; Davis, Ian; Wisner, Ben. 1996. N<strong>at</strong>ural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and <strong>Disaster</strong>s.<br />

by 2025 it is estim<strong>at</strong>ed th<strong>at</strong> approxim<strong>at</strong>ely 83.5 percent<br />

will live in urban areas (UN-Habit<strong>at</strong>, 2009). Figure 1.12<br />

shows urbaniz<strong>at</strong>ion trends for the region.<br />

Figure 1.12. Urbaniz<strong>at</strong>ion Trends in LAC<br />

Percentage<br />

100<br />

90<br />

80<br />

70<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

1950 1975 2007<br />

Year<br />

Source: United N<strong>at</strong>ions Secretari<strong>at</strong>, 2007.<br />

Urban popul<strong>at</strong>ion<br />

Rural popul<strong>at</strong>ion<br />

2025 2050<br />

Rapid urbaniz<strong>at</strong>ion and unequal access to land leads<br />

poor people to settle in hazard-prone areas because they<br />

do not have altern<strong>at</strong>ives. The areas occupied by the urban<br />

poor are <strong>of</strong>ten environmental protection areas with<br />

not even minimal conditions for safe human settlement,<br />

such as those on river banks or slopes prone to flooding<br />

and landslides (The World Bank, 2007). Approxim<strong>at</strong>ely<br />

40 percent <strong>of</strong> urban settlers are poor and 20 percent-25<br />

percent live in improvised houses in overcrowded slums<br />

(IDB, 2007a and 2007b).<br />

In the slums, the houses are <strong>of</strong> substandard construction.<br />

Slums also lack basic infrastructure and safe access roads,<br />

and land tenure is irregular and informal. 18 Savings or<br />

resources for home improvement, as well as insurance<br />

options for transferring risk, are virtually non-existent<br />

among the region’s poor, and in many cases, neither<br />

their land nor property are even insurable (IDB, 2000).<br />

Rapid urbaniz<strong>at</strong>ion in the region is also associ<strong>at</strong>ed<br />

with environmental degrad<strong>at</strong>ion, characterized by the<br />

destruction <strong>of</strong> ecosystems, deforest<strong>at</strong>ion, and an increase<br />

in solid and liquid wastes, among other phenomena th<strong>at</strong><br />

increase the vulnerability <strong>of</strong> urban popul<strong>at</strong>ions.<br />

The occup<strong>at</strong>ion <strong>of</strong> slopes on the outskirts <strong>of</strong> cities for<br />

marginal farming and livestock activities, as well as for<br />

human settlements, tends to cre<strong>at</strong>e landslides th<strong>at</strong> drive<br />

a gre<strong>at</strong> deal <strong>of</strong> sediment into rivers already clogged by<br />

18<br />

According to the UN 2005 report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), the number <strong>of</strong> people in urban slums increased from 111<br />

million in 1990 to 128 million in 2001, making LAC the region with the fourth largest slum popul<strong>at</strong>ion in the developing world.<br />

Chapter 1 Global and L<strong>at</strong>in America and the Caribbean N<strong>at</strong>ural <strong>Disaster</strong> Trends 11

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