Preventive Resettlement of Populations at Risk of Disaster - GFDRR
Preventive Resettlement of Populations at Risk of Disaster - GFDRR
Preventive Resettlement of Populations at Risk of Disaster - GFDRR
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Figure 1.11. Pressures th<strong>at</strong> Result in <strong>Disaster</strong>s – Pressure and Release (PAR) Model<br />
Root<br />
Causes<br />
Dynamic<br />
Pressures<br />
Unsafe<br />
Conditions<br />
<strong>Disaster</strong><br />
Hazards<br />
Limited<br />
access to:<br />
· Power<br />
· Structures<br />
· Resources<br />
Ideologies<br />
· Political systems<br />
· Economic<br />
systems<br />
Lack <strong>of</strong>:<br />
· Local institutions<br />
· Training<br />
· Appropri<strong>at</strong>e skills<br />
· Local investments<br />
· Local markets<br />
· Press freedom<br />
· Ethical standards<br />
in public life<br />
Macro-forces:<br />
· Rapid popul<strong>at</strong>ion growth<br />
· Rapid urbaniz<strong>at</strong>ion<br />
· Arms expenditure<br />
· Debt repayment schedules<br />
· Deforest<strong>at</strong>ion<br />
· Decline in soil productivity<br />
Fragile physical<br />
environment:<br />
· Dangerous loc<strong>at</strong>ions<br />
· Unprotected buildings<br />
and infrastructure<br />
Fragile local economy:<br />
· Livelihoods <strong>at</strong> risk<br />
· Low income levels<br />
Vulnerable society:<br />
· Special groups <strong>at</strong> risk<br />
· Lack <strong>of</strong> local institutions<br />
Public actions:<br />
· Lack <strong>of</strong> disaster<br />
preparedness<br />
· Prevalence <strong>of</strong> endemic<br />
disease<br />
<strong>Risk</strong> =<br />
hazard +<br />
vulnerability<br />
· Earthquake<br />
· High winds<br />
(cyclone /<br />
hurricane /<br />
typhoon)<br />
· Flooding<br />
· Volcanic eruption<br />
· Landslide<br />
· Drought<br />
· Virus and pests<br />
Source: Blaikie, Piers; Cannon, Terry; Davis, Ian; Wisner, Ben. 1996. N<strong>at</strong>ural Hazards, People’s Vulnerability and <strong>Disaster</strong>s.<br />
by 2025 it is estim<strong>at</strong>ed th<strong>at</strong> approxim<strong>at</strong>ely 83.5 percent<br />
will live in urban areas (UN-Habit<strong>at</strong>, 2009). Figure 1.12<br />
shows urbaniz<strong>at</strong>ion trends for the region.<br />
Figure 1.12. Urbaniz<strong>at</strong>ion Trends in LAC<br />
Percentage<br />
100<br />
90<br />
80<br />
70<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
1950 1975 2007<br />
Year<br />
Source: United N<strong>at</strong>ions Secretari<strong>at</strong>, 2007.<br />
Urban popul<strong>at</strong>ion<br />
Rural popul<strong>at</strong>ion<br />
2025 2050<br />
Rapid urbaniz<strong>at</strong>ion and unequal access to land leads<br />
poor people to settle in hazard-prone areas because they<br />
do not have altern<strong>at</strong>ives. The areas occupied by the urban<br />
poor are <strong>of</strong>ten environmental protection areas with<br />
not even minimal conditions for safe human settlement,<br />
such as those on river banks or slopes prone to flooding<br />
and landslides (The World Bank, 2007). Approxim<strong>at</strong>ely<br />
40 percent <strong>of</strong> urban settlers are poor and 20 percent-25<br />
percent live in improvised houses in overcrowded slums<br />
(IDB, 2007a and 2007b).<br />
In the slums, the houses are <strong>of</strong> substandard construction.<br />
Slums also lack basic infrastructure and safe access roads,<br />
and land tenure is irregular and informal. 18 Savings or<br />
resources for home improvement, as well as insurance<br />
options for transferring risk, are virtually non-existent<br />
among the region’s poor, and in many cases, neither<br />
their land nor property are even insurable (IDB, 2000).<br />
Rapid urbaniz<strong>at</strong>ion in the region is also associ<strong>at</strong>ed<br />
with environmental degrad<strong>at</strong>ion, characterized by the<br />
destruction <strong>of</strong> ecosystems, deforest<strong>at</strong>ion, and an increase<br />
in solid and liquid wastes, among other phenomena th<strong>at</strong><br />
increase the vulnerability <strong>of</strong> urban popul<strong>at</strong>ions.<br />
The occup<strong>at</strong>ion <strong>of</strong> slopes on the outskirts <strong>of</strong> cities for<br />
marginal farming and livestock activities, as well as for<br />
human settlements, tends to cre<strong>at</strong>e landslides th<strong>at</strong> drive<br />
a gre<strong>at</strong> deal <strong>of</strong> sediment into rivers already clogged by<br />
18<br />
According to the UN 2005 report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDG), the number <strong>of</strong> people in urban slums increased from 111<br />
million in 1990 to 128 million in 2001, making LAC the region with the fourth largest slum popul<strong>at</strong>ion in the developing world.<br />
Chapter 1 Global and L<strong>at</strong>in America and the Caribbean N<strong>at</strong>ural <strong>Disaster</strong> Trends 11