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JAMSTEC 2002 Annual Report Frontier Research System for Global Change ide concentration. The model should allow us to predict leaf area index: an index of land-surface functions with respect to atmosphere-biosphere exchange. In FY, we developed a framework of the ecosystem model, on the basis of Sim-CYCLE (Simulation model of Carbon cYCle in Land Ecosystems), which is a simple compartment model including physiological responses to light, temperature, CO , and water availability. The model could appropriately capture the observed state of terrestrial carbon dynamics in various ecosystems, then we applied the model to a preliminary off-line experiment to examine the responsiveness of terrestrial carbon budget to global environmental change derived from the IPCC/SRES scenario. The experiment showed that terrestrial ecosystems act as both a positive and negative feedback mechanism, dependent on prescribed climate scenario, implying an uncertainty of model prediction with the model (Figure ). Next fiscal year, we are planning to validate the model with a variety of observation data (e.g. satellite image and flux measurement) to reduce the uncertainty. Then, the model will be incorporated into the climate system model, allowing us to perform on-line simulations including the interaction between carbon cycle and climatic dynamics. a-. Oceanic Biogeochemical Model This group is in charge of developing the ocean component of the integrated earth system model. In the first year of the project, an ecosystem model was embedded in an ocean general circulation model and the model results were compared with observations after integration of years. The ecosystem model is a simple nitrogen-based model with compartments, and the circulation model is COCO, which is cooperatively developed by CCSR and FRSGC. Spatial and temporal variations of the mixed layer depth, one of the most important physical factors for pelagic ecosystems, are reproduced by the model including the large amplitudes of seasonal variations in the northern North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. The model results are well compared to satellite observations regarding sur- Pg C yr-1 190 180 170 160 150 Photosynthesis CCSR/NIES-A2 CCSR/NIES-B2 CCCma-A2 CCCma-B2 HadCM3-A2 HadCM3-B2 Pg C 750 700 650 Plant biomass 140 600 130 550 120 Pg C yr-1 110 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 Ecosystem respiration Pg C 500 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 1450 Soil carbon 1400 1350 1300 1250 1200 110 1150 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year Year Fig.30 Predicted changes in carbon dynamics of the global terrestrial ecosystem in off-line simulations with Sim-CYCLE. Simulations are based on climate change scenarios obtained by three different coupled general circulation models using SRES emission scenarios. 150
Japan Marine Science and Technology Center Frontier Research System for Global Change face chlorophyll distribution, in that the concentrations are high in the areas with Ekman upwelling such as the northern North Atlantic, northern North Pacific, equatorial regions, and the Southern Ocean (Figure ). The model also captures the distinct blooming event in the northern North Atlantic due to the sudden shallowing of the mixed layer depth in spring. Incorporation of the carbonate system into the model is also completed. Model integration of a few thousand model years, required for achieving the stationary state, is going to be conducted. The model has a relatively fine resolution for a model for a global scale, and it is estimated that approximately months are needed even using the Earth Simulator to carry out such a long integration, which means that the integration is virtually impossible with other existing supercomputers. a-. Dynamical Global Vegetation Model The objective of this group is to establish a plantdynamics-model, which will be incorporated into the integrated-terrestrial-model in subject of the MEXT's project. This plant-dynamics-model is specifically designed for predicting vegetation changes at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, where potentially large, rapid climate changes occur. Although most of the present Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) assume that vegetation dynamics were regulated by gap mechanism, vegetation dynamics at high latitude would be primarily regulated by climate and disturbance regimes rather than gap mechanism. Accordingly, as a base of the vegetation-dynamics-model, we employ ALFRESCO that simulates vegetation change from arctic tundra to boreal forest in response to global changes in climate, fire, and land use. Although, ALFRESCO predicts landscape-level response of vegetation, it does not predict changes in plant biomass or forest size-structure, which will be required for the integrated-terrestrialmodel. Thus, we extend ALFRESCO to incorporate plant growth models for predicting both of the changes in plant biomass and forest size-structure. For finer simulation of vegetation change, we are also looking to incorporate () seed dispersal process, and () highly heterogeneous landscapes in boreal and arctic areas. b. Development of a Coupled Atmospheric Composition – Climate Change Model b-. Model for Global warming – Atmospheric Composition Change Interaction Feb. Apr. May. Jul. 80˚N 5 1.5 80˚N 5 1.5 1 1 40˚N 0.75 0.5 40˚N 0.75 0.5 0.4 0.4 0˚ 0.35 0.3 0.25 0˚ 0.35 0.3 0.25 40˚S 0.2 0.15 0.1 40˚S 0.2 0.15 0.1 80˚S 50˚E 150˚E 110˚W 10˚W 0.07 0.05 0 80˚S 50˚E 150˚E 110˚W 10˚W 0.07 0.05 0 80˚N Aug. Oct. 5 1.5 80˚N Nov. Jan. 5 1.5 1 1 40˚N 0.75 0.5 40˚N 0.75 0.5 0.4 0.4 0˚ 0.35 0.3 0.25 0˚ 0.35 0.3 0.25 40˚S 0.2 0.15 0.1 40˚S 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.07 0.07 80˚S 50˚E 150˚E 110˚W 10˚W 0.05 0 80˚S 50˚E 150˚E 110˚W 10˚W 0.05 0 Fig.31 Seasonal variation of surface chlorophyll in the model. Units are mg/m 3 . 151
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