Robust Decision Making (RDM) - GFDRR

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What Non-Structural Policies Should the City Pursue? Consider 16 alternative combinations of these policies Buyout threshold (y) Elevation Threshold (x) Elev. only -5 ft. -4 ft. -5 ft. X -2 ft. X X X +1 ft. X X X Consider two types of non-structural policies applied across city’s neighborhoods: •Incentives to elevate new and existing homes •Land use restrictions, including • Buying out existing homes • Growth restrictions +4 ft. X X X +7 ft. X X X +10 ft. X X X 8
Difficult-to-Characterize Long-Term Uncertainty Complicates Any Evaluation of These Options Uncertainties about physical systems – Climate change effects on storm intensity or frequency – Coastal land loss – Relative sea level rise (Land subsidence + sea level rise) Uncertainties about socio-economic systems – Local economic growth and population patterns – Induced development effects (moral hazard) – Participation rates in voluntary programs – Protection system maintenance Tradeoff Analysis Scoping & Strategy Scenario Discovery Case Generation 9
Page 1 and 2: Robust Decision Making Robert Lempe
Page 3 and 4: Traditional Planning Methods Often
Page 5 and 6: Robust Decision Making (RDM) Helps
Page 7: How Can Non-Structural Policies Hel
Page 11 and 12: Use Database to Identify Two Best N
Page 13 and 14: Under What Conditions Does the Elev
Page 15 and 16: Ho Chi Minh City Developing an Inte
Page 17 and 18: “XLRM” Framework Structures Ana
Page 19 and 20: Factors Potentially Considered in O
Page 21 and 22: Project Will Follow RDM Process Oct
Page 23 and 24: More Information Bryant, B. P., and

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