Robust Decision Making (RDM) - GFDRR
Robust Decision Making (RDM) - GFDRR
Robust Decision Making (RDM) - GFDRR
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<strong>Robust</strong> <strong>Decision</strong> <strong>Making</strong> (<strong>RDM</strong>) Helps Inform<br />
Good <strong>Decision</strong>s Without Reliable Predictions<br />
<strong>RDM</strong> follows “Deliberation with Analysis” decision support process<br />
Key idea:<br />
Participatory Scoping<br />
1.Define Goals, Uncertainties,<br />
and Strategies<br />
2.Choose Candidate Strategy<br />
• Start with strategy<br />
• Use analytics to identify<br />
scenarios where strategy<br />
fail to meet its goals<br />
• Use these scenarios to<br />
identify and evaluate<br />
responses<br />
Tradeoff Analysis<br />
5.Display and Evaluate<br />
Tradeoffs Among<br />
Strateg(ies)<br />
Scenario Exploration<br />
and Discovery<br />
4.Characterize Strategy’s<br />
Vulnerabilities<br />
Case Generation<br />
3.Estimate Performance of<br />
Strategy in Many Futures<br />
Deliberation<br />
<strong>Robust</strong> Strategy<br />
Vulnerabilities<br />
Analysis<br />
Deliberation with<br />
Analysis<br />
4
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