Robust Decision Making (RDM) - GFDRR
Robust Decision Making (RDM) - GFDRR
Robust Decision Making (RDM) - GFDRR
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Under What Conditions Does the Elevation+Buyouts<br />
Strategy Perform Better Than Elevation-Only Strategy?<br />
Statistical “scenario discovery” analysis asks “what are the<br />
key drivers of vulnerability for elevation-only strategy?”<br />
Active Enforcement,<br />
Increasing Risk Scenario<br />
– Buyout policies 100% enforced<br />
– Levees degrading over time<br />
– Population stable or growing<br />
Active Enforcement, Reduced<br />
Participation Scenario<br />
– Buyout policies 100% enforced<br />
– Buyout costs less than or equal<br />
to current estimates<br />
– Participation rate for elevation<br />
incentives < 76%<br />
Tradeoff<br />
Analysis<br />
Scoping &<br />
Strategy<br />
Scenario<br />
Discovery<br />
Case<br />
Generation<br />
Policy makers should only choose<br />
Elevation+Buyout strategy only if<br />
they ascribe sufficient likelihood to<br />
one of these two scenarios<br />
14
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