Robust Decision Making (RDM) - GFDRR

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Use Database to Identify Two Best Non-Structural Policies Key question: in which futures do combined elevation+buyouts strategies perform better than elevation standards alone? Deviation from optimum for Citywide Strategies across 250 plausible futures Blue boxes: elevation only Red boxes: combined elevation+buyouts Best elevation+buyout strategy performs slightly better, but costs more, than best elevation-only strategy Increasing response cost 12
Under What Conditions Does the Elevation+Buyouts Strategy Perform Better Than Elevation-Only Strategy? Statistical “scenario discovery” analysis asks “what are the key drivers of vulnerability for elevation-only strategy?” Active Enforcement, Increasing Risk Scenario – Buyout policies 100% enforced – Levees degrading over time – Population stable or growing Active Enforcement, Reduced Participation Scenario – Buyout policies 100% enforced – Buyout costs less than or equal to current estimates – Participation rate for elevation incentives < 76% Scoping & Strategy Tradeoff Analysis Case Generation Scenario Discovery 13
Page 1 and 2: Robust Decision Making Robert Lempe
Page 3 and 4: Traditional Planning Methods Often
Page 5 and 6: Robust Decision Making (RDM) Helps
Page 7 and 8: How Can Non-Structural Policies Hel
Page 9 and 10: Difficult-to-Characterize Long-Term
Page 11: Use Database to Identify Two Best N
Page 15 and 16: Ho Chi Minh City Developing an Inte
Page 17 and 18: “XLRM” Framework Structures Ana
Page 19 and 20: Factors Potentially Considered in O
Page 21 and 22: Project Will Follow RDM Process Oct
Page 23 and 24: More Information Bryant, B. P., and

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