TEchNOLOGy TRaNSFER MODEL - Javna agencija

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5 Technology Management Delphi Method On principle, the Delphi method is a kind of multilevel, structured expert survey to predict future technological developments and is based on the assumption that a complex problem can be better managed by a group of experts than by one individual. The main aim of this method is an identification of already foreseeable technological inventions or trends, the prediction of the point in time they will occur as well as the assessment of their specific impacts on the respective company and its industry. In the following, figure 15 provides an overview of the method’s approach, its basic principle and its main advantage and disadvantage. Figure 15: Approach to Delphi method (Source: Grienitz, 2008) In detail, participants in the survey are a group of experts who do not know about each other and who are interrogated individually by means of questionnaires in three turns. At first, however, assumptions and questions for the questionnaires have to be worked out by the Delphi team, followed by arranging the group of experts. It is necessary that this group should have expertise in different disciplines in order to prevent a concentration of opinions in one area. The following step is to dispatch the questionnaires to all experts and to analyze them subsequently. In the 2 nd turn, afore stated opinions should be affirmed or disaffirmed and probability adjusted by the experts. For this purpose, questionnaires may be amended with questions to probability and certainty of statements. Thus, conclusions of the 1 st turn are critically questioned in the 2 nd turn, boosting creative stimulation. In the last turn, experts are requested to draw conclusions from all previous opinions and answers stated by the whole group of experts. Although this method is an outstanding tool to focus numerous cross-discipline expert opinions on technological development which can be primarily used to facilitate corporate strategic decision making, it must be noted that due to focusing opinions too strong, some weak signals will not be observed and therefore become lost. 5.7 Technology related decisions Each technology-intensive enterprise is basically faced with three strategic technology related decisions. This ‘trilogy’ is illustrated by means of figure 16 and explained briefly as follows. Figure 16: Trilogy of technology related decisions (Source: Brodbeck et al., 1995) 63
KNOWLEDGE FOR BUSINESS IN BORDER REGIONS At first, a decision seems necessary about which technologies are of relevance and of need for the respective company today and in the future. This decision is based upon comprehensive analyses, which encompass first the technology needs of several current and planned products and services, and second the assessment of not-yet-deployed or perhaps to-be-developed technologies with an eye to their function as substitutes or as new applications. Second, the company has to decide on the type of sourcing of the required technologies. The so-called ‘make-or-buy’ decision can be understood as the act of making a strategic choice between developing a technology internally (in-house) or acquiring it externally from a supplier. The latter is also referred to as ‘outsourcing’. In regard to this decision, conducting feasibility studies is highly recommended (see worksheet 5-1 as an example). Third, at a given point in time companies are confronted with the question as to which technologies should be reserved for a firm’s own exclusive use, and which should be made accessible to external parties in a different form or even for direct use. Such a decision is also referred to as ‘keep-or-sell’. It should be kept in mind that all these decisions must be made related to the aims of the company and its core competencies as well as its available resources. In the future, companies will be faced with significantly more ‘buy or sell’ decisions than previously. In the comprehensive sense such professional buy-and-sell processes can be termed as ‘technology marketing’. 5.8 Technology Marketing In order to support the buying and selling of technologies, a specific type of marketing is needed which goes beyond traditional marketing. Thus, technology marketing describes a specific form of marketing concerning technological products, technological processes and technological know-how. It is characterized by constitutive criteria which considerably differ from the conventional product marketing. Figure 17: Various forms of technology marketing (Source: Tschirky et al., 2000) The above figure illustrates both forms of technology marketing and of traditional marketing. It presupposes that traditional marketing also formally covers many of the company’s acquisition and turnover-oriented activities. Classical marketing, however, deals only superficially with acquisition activities and strongly focuses on turnover markets. In contrast, the task of technology marketing is to explicitly, with equal weight, integrate acquisition and turnover. Considerable synergies may arise between these areas, and cooperation be established. Figure 18 clearly represents the basic differences between these two types of marketing. 64
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Spoštovani! Pred vami je priročni
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KAZALO VSEBINE Module 1: Technology
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1 Technology Transfer Model to impr
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