TEchNOLOGy TRaNSFER MODEL - Javna agencija

KNOWLEDGE FOR BUSINESS IN BORDER REGIONS
Scenario Analysis
The scenario method, first applied for military purposes, was introduced in business sciences through KAHN and WIENER, which
defined a scenario as ‘a hypothetical sequence of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and
decision points’. Based on this keynote, scenarios can be understood as ‘images’ of the future which are developed on the basis
of the present situation. Thus, scenario analysis allows for a description of a possible future situation as well as a disclosure of the
development steps leading to this future situation by means of retropolation. It is to be noted, that the basic idea of this analysis is
to consider multiple possibilities of future development instead of creating one general prediction. Therefore, the outcome of any
scenario analysis is to gain at least two markedly different but consistent scenarios (or ‘images’) of the future. Preconditions for scenario
creation are an analysis of the as-is-state as well as the sourcing of adequate information about factors which determine and
influence future events considerably. Through the combination of different scenarios corporate chances and risks can be anticipated
which builds the basis for strategic steps. In connection with technology development scenarios, the intended outcome is an early
development of promising technologies of the future and an identification of disruptive factors including the determination of their
specific influence.
A scenario analysis usually runs through five steps which are described in the following by figure 13.
1 Scenario preparation
1
Scenario-platform:
Definition of examined scenario field, scenario goal and
scenario organization
Scenario creation
2 Scenario field analysis
3 Scenario projection
4 Scenario generation
2
3
Description of scenario field through influencing factors
- these factors afterwards should be concentrated to key
factors (e.g. through influence analysis)
Formulating of alternative possibilities of key factors‘ future
development
Task: forward projection of key factors into the future
5 Scenario transfer
4
Generation of consistent and plausible scenarios
5
Result: Statements about upcoming strategic decisions
Figure 13: The scenario analysis process in 5 steps (According to: Gausemeier et al., 2001)
In order to gain a better understanding
of how scenario creation is usually
achieved, the following figure illustrates
steps 2 to 4 graphically.
The specific illustration of a SCENARIO
PROJECTION by means of an open cone
arises from the fact that the present
situation has its determined structures,
which usually will not change considerably
in the short term. The near future
is characterized by existing structures
as well, but is not completely determined
by them. Moreover, the distant
future can never be exactly determined
in advance, for which reason changes
and impacts of certain factors are quite
unforeseeable. Thus, the number of
possible future developments increases
proportionally to the considered time
horizon, which results graphically in Figure 14: Scenario creation process (According to: Eversheim (ed.), 2003; Gausemeier et al., 1996)
an open cone (see fig. 14). Please note
that the predicted path of technological development should be described as precisely as possible during scenario projection, whereas
attention should be directed to potential ‘trend breaks’ which could create a new scenario over time.
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