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5 Technology Management Technology Tree Particularly natural scientific-technical tree charts, so called ‘technology trees’, prove valuable when both definition and delineation of individual technologies are necessary. More precisely, technology trees enable a well-structured, hierarchical overview of a technology’s specific origin and its subsequent development in the past as well as insights into its probable future development. Thus, the development pathway of a respective technology can be assessed (see fig. 11). Technology Radar Another methodology to detect future technological developments is the so called ‘technology radar’, which can be applied primarily in technology scouting. This tool enables an early identification of technologies, technological trends and technological shocks, and is basically aimed at raising corporate awareness of threats and opportunities of technological developments. Moreover, technology radars both support the stimulation of innovation by combining technology reports with business potential assessments and facilitate the sourcing of external technologies by reaching through the network of technology scouts to their Figure 11: Technology Tree (Source: Kastner-Puschl, 2009) sources of information. In general, a technology radar process consists of four phases: In the IDENTIFICATION PHASE, a network of technology scouts is used to access sources of information on technological developments in industry and academia. Technologies which may be relevant should be outlined in a short summary consisting of a technological description, research status and business potential. In the subsequent SELECTION PHASE, two separate screens should be arranged: In the first screen technologies should be selected according to their degree of novelty, whereas the second screen should ensure that the selected technology is not yet being covered by the respective company. Afterwards, the technologies are ranked in an ASSESSMENT PHASE according to the criteria ‘market impact’ and ‘technological realization complexity’. The ranking should be done in a workshop with the technology exploration team and all technology scouts, ensuring that the cross-technological enabling characteristics of a technology are detected and broader technological trends are identified. In the last phase, the DISSEMINATION PHASE, the technologies are thoroughly researched by the technology scouts and outlined in a short summary which describes the technology, the latest developments, the research status and the business potential. To facilitate access to the technologies, a visualization (so called ‘radar screen’) should be composed, which categorizes the technologies in technology fields and according to their development status (see fig. 12). Figure 12: Radar screen (Source: Deutsche Telekom AG) 5.6.2 Technology forecasting methods and instruments When forecasting technological developments, the main task is to anticipate and to think ahead into the future, and in doing so, all potential and imaginable future pathways of technologies should be included. The basic goal of early technology detection is to recognize the attractiveness of new technologies earlier than competitors, to identify downturns of old technologies and to detect early signs of discontinuities. Hence, ‘pictures of the future’ not only depict visions but also serve to quantify future markets, to anticipate future customer demand and to identify technologies with high growth potential. In the following, two forecasting methods (scenario analysis and the Delphi method) are briefly presented. 61
KNOWLEDGE FOR BUSINESS IN BORDER REGIONS Scenario Analysis The scenario method, first applied for military purposes, was introduced in business sciences through KAHN and WIENER, which defined a scenario as ‘a hypothetical sequence of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and decision points’. Based on this keynote, scenarios can be understood as ‘images’ of the future which are developed on the basis of the present situation. Thus, scenario analysis allows for a description of a possible future situation as well as a disclosure of the development steps leading to this future situation by means of retropolation. It is to be noted, that the basic idea of this analysis is to consider multiple possibilities of future development instead of creating one general prediction. Therefore, the outcome of any scenario analysis is to gain at least two markedly different but consistent scenarios (or ‘images’) of the future. Preconditions for scenario creation are an analysis of the as-is-state as well as the sourcing of adequate information about factors which determine and influence future events considerably. Through the combination of different scenarios corporate chances and risks can be anticipated which builds the basis for strategic steps. In connection with technology development scenarios, the intended outcome is an early development of promising technologies of the future and an identification of disruptive factors including the determination of their specific influence. A scenario analysis usually runs through five steps which are described in the following by figure 13. 1 Scenario preparation 1 Scenario-platform: Definition of examined scenario field, scenario goal and scenario organization Scenario creation 2 Scenario field analysis 3 Scenario projection 4 Scenario generation 2 3 Description of scenario field through influencing factors - these factors afterwards should be concentrated to key factors (e.g. through influence analysis) Formulating of alternative possibilities of key factors‘ future development Task: forward projection of key factors into the future 5 Scenario transfer 4 Generation of consistent and plausible scenarios 5 Result: Statements about upcoming strategic decisions Figure 13: The scenario analysis process in 5 steps (According to: Gausemeier et al., 2001) In order to gain a better understanding of how scenario creation is usually achieved, the following figure illustrates steps 2 to 4 graphically. The specific illustration of a SCENARIO PROJECTION by means of an open cone arises from the fact that the present situation has its determined structures, which usually will not change considerably in the short term. The near future is characterized by existing structures as well, but is not completely determined by them. Moreover, the distant future can never be exactly determined in advance, for which reason changes and impacts of certain factors are quite unforeseeable. Thus, the number of possible future developments increases proportionally to the considered time horizon, which results graphically in Figure 14: Scenario creation process (According to: Eversheim (ed.), 2003; Gausemeier et al., 1996) an open cone (see fig. 14). Please note that the predicted path of technological development should be described as precisely as possible during scenario projection, whereas attention should be directed to potential ‘trend breaks’ which could create a new scenario over time. 62
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KAZALO VSEBINE Module 1: Technology
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