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5 Technology Management nology portfolio allows for an assessment of a certain technology by means of two dimensions (or main criteria), where one is aimed at assessing a technologies’ potential in the market and the other at evaluating company-internal preconditions. Referring to the technology portfolio according to Pfeiffer, the dimensions considered are TECHNOLOGY ATTRACTIVENESS and RELA- TIVE TECHNOLOGICAL STRENGTH, both of which are again composed of several sub-criteria (see fig. 8). These sub-criteria have to be assessed first in order to be able to evaluate both the technological attractiveness and the relative technological strength of the respective technologies. Dependent on its assessment, each technology is positioned afterwards within the portfolio, indicating a proposed generic strategy for the future (see fig. 8). For instance, a technology with low technological attractiveness as well as low relative technological strength is usually positioned in the dark blue zone of the portfolio which proposes a disinvestment in this certain technology. In contrast, investment seems to be the most appropriate strategy if a technology is positioned somewhere in the top right zones of the portfolio, which means that both technological attractiveness and relative technological strengths must be quite high. It should be kept in mind that a transformation from the present situation to a prospective moment seems to be necessary in order to foresee future technological paths and thus allow for long-term technology strategies. Figure 8: Technology Portfolio according to Pfeiffer (According to: Pfeiffer, 1987) Although the technology portfolio is a quite transparent, systematic and theoretically based method used to assess different technologies, two-dimensional portfolios often hold the disadvantage of leading to simplified information only. Nevertheless, it grants a well-structured overview of the potential of companies’ technologies, thus supporting strategic decision-making. 5.6 Technology Foresight Activities One of the main elements of technological competitive advantage is the knowledge of the relevant technological developments and trends. For this, it is an essential task in technology management to closely monitor developments in the core technologies and to scan for new technologies that have disruptive potential. Methods for collecting, analyzing and disseminating such technological information have become known as ‘technology foresight’. Thus, carrying out technology foresight activities basically means to look ahead in order to enable an active design of future corporate fields of action and to prepare a company to meet the technological needs and opportunities of the future. Technology foresight basically covers two main tasks which is technology scouting and technology forecasting. Their activities will be presented briefly as follows. TECHNOLOGY SCOUTING: Technology scouting deals with the early identification of (already observable) future developments of existing technologies that can be of importance for the respective company. In doing so, identification strongly relies on weak signals and aims at the detection of technological discontinuities. The basic activities of technology scouting comprise technology monitoring, which means the directed search for technological trends in a specific technological field (e.g. for core technologies), and technology scanning, which deals with undirected search for new technological opportunities in white spaces not yet covered by the technological scope of the respective company (e.g. disruptive technologies). TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING: Technology forecasting deals with predictions about presumable emergences of new technologies in the distant future (minimum 5-10 years). It shall be deemed to be a kind of technological futurology as different options for alternative future developments are considered. 59
KNOWLEDGE FOR BUSINESS IN BORDER REGIONS 5.6.1 Methods and instruments to visualize future technological developments This section will provide an overview of instruments with high potential for visualizing future technological developments. Particularly Technology Roadmaps, Technology Calendars, Technology Trees and Technology Radars have proved to be of value in technology foresight activities and can be used especially for technology scouting. These instruments will be discussed briefly as follows. Technology Roadmap With the use of technology roadmaps, future developments of technologies may be predicted, analyzed and visualized through systematic gathering and bundling of expertise. In general, roadmaps offer a broad field of application and are quite useful for corporate strategic planning of products and technologies. They basically provide an overview of potential technology pathways in the future and therefore create options for action in a specific corporate field of action. The roadmap generation process can be understood as a kind of extrapolation of the present situation. This means that already established technologies and product lines are adjusted into the future and generation chronology is presented. It is attempted to estimate as precisely as possible at which certain point in time a technology will be available and in demand. The advantage of this tool lies in its reliable starting basis (that is, the present situation), but both technological discontinuities and leaps still cannot be predicted. As means of visualization, technology roadmaps enable a picture of the interrelationships between individual technologies and of the chronology of their development as well as of their individual diffusion rate. Figure 9: Two examples of Technology Roadmaps (Source: Behrens/Specht, 2004) Technology Calendar In principle, a technology calendar provides an overview of which certain manufacturing technologies can be applied to which certain products or components at present and in the future (t 0 – t n ) in a company. This tool allows interrelated longterm planning of future products and technologies and therefore supports both long-term planning of corporate resources (e.g. personnel, capital) and decision making (e.g. make-orbuy, keep-or-sell). This means that technologies that will not be applied until a set time in the future may already be considered in corporate planning. As can be seen by means of figure 10, a technology calendar holds most notably the advantage of a systematic and comprehensible visualization of the interconnectedness between the planned product innovations and their required manufacturing technologies over time. Thus, technology calendars are usually visualized through a vertical axis, where present and future product innovations and technologies are depicted, and a horizontal axis, where the period of development and the respective point in time the technology is applied is indicated. 60 Figure 10: Technology Calendar (Source: Amelingmeyer/Harland, 2005)
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