TEchNOLOGy TRaNSFER MODEL - Javna agencija

KNOWLEDGE FOR BUSINESS IN BORDER REGIONS
5.4.1 Technology Life Cycle Models
Based upon the biological evolutionary model the technology life cycle model enables a systematic identification and observation
of certain technological developments, thus allowing strategic planning of internal R&D. The concept of life cycle with its conventional
phases of birth, adolescence, adulthood and old age and its premise of a limited length of life can be applied to different entities such
as enterprises, industries and products but as well to technologies. Thus, the different maturity stages of a specific technology are the
subject of analysis within the technology life cycle models.
A technology life cycle can be visualized graphically by revealing the development of a certain technology over time, measured by
means of specific performance variables (e.g. speed of microprocessors). In practice, most technological developments do not occur
in a linear way, but are rather characterized by leaps and phases of stronger or shorter growth and stagnation. As a general rule, this
usually results in an S-shaped course (see fig. 4).
Examples originate from authors like A. D. Little as well as Ford and Ryan, which both directly integrate the time-factor by means
of the abscissa. The technology life cycle model according to A. D. Little is explained in detail as follows.
5.4.2 Technology Life Cycle Model according to A. D. Little
This model particularly points to the correlation between the
current position of a certain technology on its life cycle curve
(maturity level) and its remaining competitive potential. On the
basis of the technologies’ four phases of life (which are: Embryonic,
Growth, Mature, Aging) an additional classification into
three technology categories can be derived. The model of A. D.
Little specifically provides us with several indicators which allow
an easy determination of a technology’s present maturity stage
(see fig. 4). With this typification, each technology can be quickly
classified in terms of its remaining competitive potential.
Figure 4: Phases of a technology life cycle in the concept acc. to A. D. Little (According to: Little, 1981; Tiefel, 2007)
5.4.3 The S-curve concept according to McKinsey
The S-curve concept according to McKinsey basically highlights the augmentation of a technology’s capability subject to cumulative
R&D expenses and time. As can be seen in figure 5, the time-factor gets integrated into the model only indirectly via the cumulated
R&D expenses.
Let it be again noted, that a technology’s capability doesn’t usually increase in a linear way to the R&D expenses, but is rather
S-shaped. Whereas in the early phase of a technology life cycle an increase in cumulative R&D expenses will only result in little performance
improvements notably greater improvements can be expected in the subsequent boom-phase with the same R&D-effort.
As figure 5 points out, technology converges a viability or performance limit over time, which means that R&D-efficiency decreases
when approaching this limit. Thus, additional expenses lead to an ever shorter increase in capability.
At the latest at this point a strategic decision is needed to determine whether the given R&D budget should still be invested in
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