A Revolution in R&D

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60 value of expected profits, discounted by a representative hurdle rate, less the cost of developing the drug. For the average drug, we assume peak annual sales of $500 million and 11 years to patent expiration. Also, our numbers reflect the fact that R&D Post-genomics Pre-genomics GENOMICS TECHNOLOGY ASSUMPTIONS Biology Target ID Target Validation Target identification • Limited numbers of genes • Molecular biology and biochemistry techniques Target validation • Cell and tissue studies • Mouse knockouts Target identification • Large numbers of genes • Industrialized techniques (e.g., gene chip expression) • Bioinformatics (e.g., database searches for homologies) Target validation • Cell and tissue studies • Mouse knockouts SOURCES: BCG analysis; industry interviews; scientific literature. dollars saved are pretax dollars; these “saved” dollars are subject to taxation, which explains in part why the expressed NPV calculations can be lower than the R&D savings. Chemistry Screening Optimization Screening • Parallel synthesis for library design • Assay development for high-throughput screening (HTS) • HTS Chemical optimization • Bench synthesis • Parallel synthesis Screening • Structural biology (target structure) • SAR profiling of library • Assay development for LTS1 • Virtual screening and LTS1 Chemical optimization • In silico-supported bench synthesis • In silico early ADME/tox 1 LTS = LOw-throughput screening; generally more information-rich, but less standardized, assays that cannot be used in HTS. Development Pre-clinical Clinical Preclinical (ADME/tox) • Animal testing Clinical • Patient trials Preclinical (ADME/tox) • Animal testing • In silico ADME/tox • In vitro toxicology • Surrogate markers Clinical • Patient trials • Surrogate markers
The Boston Consulting Group publishes other reports that may be of interest to senior health care executives. Recent examples include: The Pharmaceutical Industry into Its Second Century: From Serendipity to Strategy A report by The Boston Consulting Group, January 1999 Ensuring Cost-Effective Access to Innovative Pharmaceuticals: Do Market Interventions Work? A report by The Boston Consulting Group and Warner-Lambert, April 1999 Patients, Physicians, and the Internet: Myth, Reality, and Implications A report by The Boston Consulting Group, January 2001 For a complete list of BCG publications and information about how to obtain copies, please visit our Web site at www.bcg.com. Vital Signs: The Impact of E-Health on Patients and Physicians A report by The Boston Consulting Group, February 2001 Vital Signs Update: The E-Health Patient Paradox A BCG Focus by The Boston Consulting Group, May 2001 Vital Signs Update: Doctors Say E-Health Delivers A BCG Focus by The Boston Consulting Group, September 2001 In addition, BCG’s Health Care practice publishes Opportunities for Action in Health Care, essays on topical issues for senior executives.
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A Revolution in R&D HOW GENOMICS AN
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A Revolution in R&D HOW GENOMICS AN
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Table of Contents ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Page 7 and 8:
Foreword To meet growth targets, ph
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cogenetics). The productivity gains
Page 11: Introduction Throughout the pharmac
Page 14 and 15: 12 The Opportunities What is the im
Page 16 and 17: 14 and generally helping to optimiz
Page 18 and 19: 16 Cellomics are well positioned to
Page 20 and 21: 18 trials, if the company were able
Page 22 and 23: 20 almost to that of more familiar
Page 24 and 25: 22 UPSTART START-UPS—THE COMPETIT
Page 26 and 27: 24 Chapter 2: The Impact of Genetic
Page 28 and 29: 26 genetics-based form of pharmacog
Page 30 and 31: 28 DISEASE GENETICS—VARIOUS APPRO
Page 32 and 33: 30 Efficiency improvements in targe
Page 34 and 35: 32 duce targets high in quality but
Page 36 and 37: 34 would be excluded from the trial
Page 38 and 39: 36 Given these technological limita
Page 40 and 41: 38 Side-effect-based pharmacogeneti
Page 42 and 43: 40 moves, along with the relative s
Page 44 and 45: 42 POTENTIAL SAVINGS—FROM THEORET
Page 46 and 47: 44 ogy—to discover new drugs. Bro
Page 48 and 49: 46 INDUSTRY CHANGES The genomics la
Page 50 and 51: 48 Selecting Technologies According
Page 52 and 53: 50 tions, interfaces, and so on. Th
Page 54 and 55: 52 CASE STUDY: REDISCOVERING DISCOV
Page 56 and 57: 54 other—often literally—on col
Page 58 and 59: 56 The formidable operational and o
Page 61: Methodology The many diverse studie
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