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Box T7. Driving Forces in a Community in the Bolivian Amazon
For most families in the northern part of the Bolivian Amazon, Brazil nut collection provides the only
significant source of cash income. However, many aspects of Brazil nut production and marketing are
beyond the control of local people. For instance, the price of the nut is set by international markets
and varies widely from year to year. Transportation in the region is poor and unreliable, particularly
in the rainy season when the nuts are collected. In Scenario exercises, the communities identified that
the two most important driving forces were the price of Brazil nut and the quality of transportation to
their village. The price of Brazil nuts was an uncertain driving force, while transportation quality was
somewhat more certain.
Source: Evans, Velarde et al., 2006.
Step 4: Defining the scenario starting points
This step creates the opening sentences of the scenarios. Each scenario has a different starting point.
There are five main options for creating the scenario starting points:
Option 1. The group selects several uncertain driving forces. For each uncertain driving force,
the group imagines several possible futures. The scenarios unfold from differences in the
trajectories of these driving forces. Participants can then insert other more certain driving
forces, such as population growth, into the scenario to see what happens.
Option 2. Select two driving forces to create a simple 2x2 matrix. By arranging two driving forces
into a matrix, we can define the starting points for four possible scenarios (e.g., Table T22). In
Scenario A, the starting point would be: “What happens if the price of Brazil nut drops and
transport to the village gets worse?”
Table T22: Matrix for Defining Starting Points in Scenario Analysis
Lower price of Brazil nuts Higher price of Brazil nuts
Worse transportation Scenario A Scenario B
Better transportation Scenario C Scenario D
Source: Evans, Velarde et al., 2006.
Option 3. If there are more than two driving forces, various possible combinations of them can
be used to create several scenario starting points.
Option 4. A visioning exercise can be used to define the ideal future for the community, and the
group asked what needs to happen for this ideal future to be realized. They can also be asked
what could go wrong in achieving this ideal and/or for stories of the future that diverge from it
in plausible ways.
Option 5. The answers to the focal questions (Step 2) can be used.
Social Impact Assessment of Land-Based Carbon Projects (1.0) – Part II | 78