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T7.3 Scenario Analysis
Scenarios are stories about the future. They are creative answers to the question: “What if…?” Scenarios
encourage stakeholders to consider the range of changes that could occur in the future, and to think
about their likely outcomes and impacts. It is mainly useful for SIA Stages 4 and 5, i.e., to help build the
‘without project’ scenario and the project theory of change. It can be helpful to explain scenario building
by comparing a scenario to a film or movie (Box T6).
Box T6. What Makes a Successful Scenario?
A film has actors, action, scenes, conflict, comedy, drama, and happy or sad endings. A scenario should
have the same elements as a good film. The participants should be encouraged to stretch their
imaginations to think about what might happen in the community, for example, considering storylines
that are unlikely but plausible. If the stories are dull and predictable, the participants are probably not
thinking outside their traditional boundaries. The most successful scenarios are ones in which there
are interesting comparisons between two or more of the storylines, and where the storylines stretch
beyond what most people are already thinking about.
Source: Evans, Velarde et al., 2006.
Description of Method
Evans, Velarde et al (2006) propose six main steps, although the order of these is flexible.
Step 1: Identify historical eras of change and renewal
This activity encourages participants to think about change, even when a situation might appear to be
quite stable. A long timeframe such as 100, 1000, or 10,000 years can be selected - the longest
timeframe understandable to the group – which may require connecting several sheets of flipchart
paper together. The participants are then asked to write or draw important local events on the timeline,
and to identify different historical ‘eras’ and trends. The changes and factors causing the changes are
then discussed and identified. It is often helpful to invite a community elder to lead this discussion.
In some communities, participants may not be used to thinking in terms of historical eras, or historical
information on the area may not be readily available, which may mean that outside resources (e.g.,
regional historians) need to be brought in if this is acceptable.
Step 2: Identify the ‘focal questions’
The focal questions are the main concerns or topics of the exercise. The scenarios should ultimately
answer these questions. The group should be asked:
• What are your main concerns for the future without the project?
• What are your main concerns or issues with the project?
Social Impact Assessment of Land-Based Carbon Projects (1.0) – Part II | 76