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medium-term behavioral or systemic changes, additional factors will be needed to achieve the desired impacts. Impact drivers Impact drivers are factors that are within the power of the project to influence, and which if they are present would help the achievement of project objectives. They derive from the project or from associated initiatives (e.g., supportive state actions), and typically address barriers or constraints to achieving impacts. They often relate to financial, institutional, socio-economic and political sustainability, such as fundraising, quality control, institutional capacity, collaboration between government agencies and local communities, linkages between social initiatives and carbon goals, etc. An important impact driver for land-based carbon projects is an effective, transparent and accountable benefit-sharing system. They can also relate to scaling up issues, e.g., an impact driver could be an effective farmer or community aggregation strategy. External assumptions External assumptions are similar to project drivers, but are outside the control of the project. The assumptions column of the logical framework is a good place to start identifying external assumptions. Examples for carbon projects are a gradually increasing carbon price, or successful UNFCCC negotiations which would stimulate the demand and price of carbon. Synthesizing the causal model with focus groups Based on the above, it is now possible to construct the project's overall theory of change or causal model, and to assess the likelihood of achieving the desired impacts. It is necessary to assess each means-end relationship contained in the causal model independently. This should be done via a combination of desk research, consultations with focus groups composed of project stakeholders, and 'ground-truthing' at the project site. The focus group exercise is central and involves three main steps (see Figure T8): • Brainstorming around the project outcomes and impacts, and the extent to which these are being achieved. A key question is: What do you think the project has achieved so far? • Brainstorming the intermediate states between the outcomes and impacts, and their current status. Key questions are: What has been achieved so far that has contributed to project impacts? What else must happen to achieve the intended impacts? • Brainstorming the factors (impact drivers and external assumptions) responsible for success or failure in achieving the intermediate states (having clarified the current status of the intermediate states). The key question is: What were the reasons for success or failure in delivering the intermediate states? It is recommended that visualization techniques are used to explain the theory of change, and to facilitate collective thinking. Thus the outputs, outcomes, desired impacts, intermediate states, impact drivers, assumptions, etc. should be written on colored cards and put on a large board or Social Impact Assessment of Land-Based Carbon Projects (1.0) – Part II | 13
table so they can be read, discussed, moved, amended, etc. This should continue until a consensus is achieved; if this is not possible, the differences should be acknowledged and noted. The focus group exercise should be followed by a field-based ground-truthing exercise. Where field observations do not coincide with the findings of the focus group exercises, further stakeholder discussions are needed to clarify the situation. The main outcomes of this exercise will be a better understanding of the causal model, including the various cause-effect relationships and the key factors likely to determine success or failure. Figure T8: Steps in the Focus Group ROtI Exercise Outcomes STEP 3 Source: Reproduced with permission from GEF Evaluation Office & Conservation Development Centre. 2009. The ROtI Handbook: Towards Enhancing the Impacts of Environmental Projects. Methodological Paper #2. Global Environment Facility: Washington DC. http://www.thegef.org/gef/node/2096 Applying and reporting the ROtI rating system The final stage is to apply a rating system to three hierarchical levels of the causal model – the individual elements of the model (outcomes, impact drivers, assumptions and intermediate states), the overall strategy level, and the project level. A simple rating system is used: Rating Description 0 Not achieved 1 Poorly achieved 2 Partially achieved 3 Fully achieved STEP 1 Brainstorm the project’s outcomes and intended impacts, and the status of achieving each Drivers & Assumptions Brainstorm the factors responsible for success or failure in achieving intermediate states Intermediate States STEP 2 Brainstorm the intermediate states, and their status Impacts Social Impact Assessment of Land-Based Carbon Projects (1.0) – Part II | 14
Page 1 and 2: MANUAL FOR SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT
Page 3 and 4: Table of Contents T1 Introduction t
Page 5 and 6: List of Boxes Box T1. General Data
Page 7 and 8: Forest Trends’ mission is to main
Page 9 and 10: List of Acronyms (Core Guidance and
Page 11 and 12: Sections T5 and T6 present a range
Page 13 and 14: Figure T1: The Main Stages and Step
Page 15 and 16: Figure T2: Example of a Conceptual
Page 17 and 18: Figure T4: Generic Conceptual Model
Page 19 and 20: Stages 3-5 of Open Standards The re
Page 21: Figure T7: Diagram of the ROtI Anal
Page 25 and 26: Table T1: Theory of Change for Seyc
Page 27 and 28: T2.4 Participatory Impact Pathways
Page 29 and 30: Table T4: The PIPA Outcomes Logic M
Page 31 and 32: Main Sources and Further Guidance h
Page 33 and 34: T3 Sustainability Framework Approac
Page 35 and 36: Figure T12: SAPA Initiative Modifie
Page 37 and 38: 1. Identify a small group of key in
Page 39 and 40: Table T6: Example of LOAM Livelihoo
Page 41 and 42: T4 Matching Methods T4.1 Introducti
Page 43 and 44: Advantages and Disadvantages of ‘
Page 45 and 46: Box T1. General Data Collection and
Page 47 and 48: Box T3. Data Collection Methods Pro
Page 49 and 50: T6 Specific Data Collection Methods
Page 51 and 52: Table T8: Example of a Household BN
Page 53 and 54: The poverty index can range from 0%
Page 55 and 56: The PIA guide proposes the followin
Page 57 and 58: day. The ‘before project’ score
Page 59 and 60: Figure T15: “Before and After”
Page 61 and 62: Table T10: Pair-Wise Ranking Showin
Page 63 and 64: Impact calendars Impact calendars c
Page 65 and 66: A large sample is needed to be conf
Page 67 and 68: Table T15: Scoring of Changes in Ag
Page 69 and 70: Table T17: QPA Scoring of Social Eq
Page 71 and 72: T6.4 Participatory Economic Valuati
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Advantages and Disadvantages of Par
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The stories are collected from thos
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Main Sources and Further Guidance D
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Table T19: Stakeholder Analysis Pro
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Figure T18. Venn Diagram with Stake
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T7.2 Problem Trees Assuming it is p
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T7.3 Scenario Analysis Scenarios ar
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Box T7. Driving Forces in a Communi
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Maack, J.N. 2001. Scenario analysis
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In terms of non-monetary benefits,
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and duration of employment, the sta
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Physical Capital Positive changes i
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these strategic resource off-limits
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einforce existing institutions or n
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PROJECT: PROFAFOR TYPE: Plantations
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their occurrence will depend in lar
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HUMAN CAPITAL Increase in perceptio
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Table T26: Potential Mid- to Long-T
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Figure T20: Example of Relationship
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Figure T22: Additional Potential So
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T9 Further Guidance on Indicator Se
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Box T9. Goals and Indicators Defini
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When selecting indicators, it is be
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Table T27: Indicator Quality Assess
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Box T10. Indicators Derived from th
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T9.5 Disaggregating Indicators Mult
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Mayoux, L. 2001. What Do We Want to
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Landscape Outcomes Assessment Metho
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• Access to essential services (w
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T10.3 Social Indicators Derived fro
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Empowerment of women indicators:
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CCBA, 2008. Climate, Community & Bi
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James A., Pangtey V., Singh P. & Vi
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SEEP Network. 2006. Social Performa
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