AP Weekly Insight

AP Weekly Insight AP Weekly Insight

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Weekly Update AP Weekly Insight Asia Pacific ex Japan / Investment Strategy Agenda Equity Research Feb 15, 2008 21 Did the Snowstorm Freeze Chinese Consumers? Anita Hwang 27 Tech: (TSMC) (2330.TT, Not Rated) / (UMC) (2303.TT, Not Rated) H C Kwan.CFA 23 Banking: M&A Rumor & Asset Quality Worries Patrick Pong Key Calls 16 Metal & Mining: Shougang Concord Int’l (697 HK,BUY,TP HK$ 3.50) EY Lee 14 Pharmaceutical: CSL LTD (CSL AU,BUY,TP A$42.04) Sean Hwang 2 AP Economics Temporary Negative Effect from Snowstorm Hee Chan Park 3 4 5 7 11 14 Fixed Income Another liquidity cycle? Byungsoo Lee, CFA Fund Flows Funds Flow Bottomming…. Sunyoung Ahn, CFA Quant Strategy Valuations vs. Earnings Young Jean Hwang Earnings & Valuation / Performance Table Asia Pacific Country & Sector Rating for February Pharmaceutical CSL LTD (CSL AU,BUY,TP A$42.04) Sean Hwang 16 Metal & Mining Shougang Concord Int’l (697 HK,BUY,TP HK$ 3.50) EY Lee 18 Construction & Property Chongqing - Glittering in Western China Kaiser Choi 19 Shipping NOL: Stronger than Expected US Routes Jay Ryu 20 Auto Parts Strong Potential in Key Emerging Markets Jaewoo Kim 21 Consumer China’s Consumer Sector Anita Hwang 22 Banking M&A Rumor & Asset Quality Worries Patrick Pong 24 Internet / Software China’s B2B e-Commerce Giant Woo-Cheol Jeong 25 Tech Semiconductor Update Hak Moo Lee 26 Tech Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC)(2330.TT, Not Rated) United Microelectronics (UMC)(2303.TT, Not Rated) H C Kwan,CFA 27 Telecom IPTV Begins to Bloom in Asia Young Choi MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH

<strong>Weekly</strong> Update<br />

<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Weekly</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Asia Pacific ex Japan / Investment Strategy<br />

Agenda<br />

Equity Research<br />

Feb 15, 2008<br />

21 Did the Snowstorm Freeze Chinese Consumers? Anita Hwang<br />

27 Tech: (TSMC) (2330.TT, Not Rated) / (UMC) (2303.TT, Not Rated) H C Kwan.CFA<br />

23 Banking: M&A Rumor & Asset Quality Worries Patrick Pong<br />

Key Calls<br />

16 Metal & Mining: Shougang Concord Int’l (697 HK,BUY,TP HK$ 3.50) EY Lee<br />

14 Pharmaceutical: CSL LTD (CSL AU,BUY,TP A$42.04) Sean Hwang<br />

2 <strong>AP</strong> Economics<br />

Temporary Negative Effect from Snowstorm<br />

Hee Chan Park<br />

3<br />

4<br />

5<br />

7<br />

11<br />

14<br />

Fixed Income<br />

Another liquidity cycle?<br />

Byungsoo Lee, CFA<br />

Fund Flows<br />

Funds Flow Bottomming….<br />

Sunyoung Ahn, CFA<br />

Quant Strategy<br />

Valuations vs. Earnings<br />

Young Jean Hwang<br />

Earnings & Valuation / Performance Table<br />

Asia Pacific Country & Sector Rating for February<br />

Pharmaceutical<br />

CSL LTD (CSL AU,BUY,TP A$42.04)<br />

Sean Hwang<br />

16 Metal & Mining<br />

Shougang Concord Int’l (697 HK,BUY,TP HK$ 3.50)<br />

EY Lee<br />

18 Construction & Property<br />

Chongqing - Glittering in Western China<br />

Kaiser Choi<br />

19 Shipping<br />

NOL: Stronger than Expected US Routes<br />

Jay Ryu<br />

20 Auto Parts<br />

Strong Potential in Key Emerging Markets<br />

Jaewoo Kim<br />

21 Consumer<br />

China’s Consumer Sector<br />

Anita Hwang<br />

22 Banking<br />

M&A Rumor & Asset Quality Worries<br />

Patrick Pong<br />

24 Internet / Software<br />

China’s B2B e-Commerce Giant<br />

Woo-Cheol Jeong<br />

25 Tech<br />

Semiconductor Update<br />

Hak Moo Lee<br />

26 Tech<br />

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC)(2330.TT, Not Rated)<br />

United Microelectronics (UMC)(2303.TT, Not Rated)<br />

H C Kwan,CFA<br />

27 Telecom<br />

IPTV Begins to Bloom in Asia<br />

Young Choi<br />

MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

<strong>AP</strong> Economics<br />

Comment<br />

China Economy<br />

Hee Chan Park<br />

82-2-3774-1850 / hcpark@miraeasset.com<br />

Temporary Negative Effect from Snowstorm<br />

Estimates of immediate damage<br />

The snowstorm has cast a shadow over China’s short-term<br />

growth prospects. GDP growth under 10% YoY cannot be<br />

ruled out.<br />

Six key provinces suffering from the snowstorm are Anhui,<br />

Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi and Guizhou, but among<br />

them Anhui, Hunan and Hubei were most affected. The<br />

affected regions produce 10-15% of total GDP. Considering<br />

that entire economic activities stopped for a month in these<br />

regions, we estimate 1Q08 GDP to fall by 3.4-4.7%.<br />

Figure 1. Weight of Damaged Districts by Activity<br />

(%)<br />

25<br />

20<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

14.3<br />

15.4<br />

10.1 10.6 10.4<br />

16.4<br />

14.7<br />

22.2<br />

7.0<br />

10.4<br />

3 Province<br />

6 Province<br />

2.9<br />

1.9<br />

State GDP Retail Sales Fixed Agricultural Industrial Exports<br />

investmet Production Production<br />

Source: FactSet, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

Damage is likely to be different by industry. Primary industry<br />

and domestic demand seems to be more affected than<br />

secondary industry or exports. In terms of total national<br />

output, agricultural production of the damaged regions<br />

makes up 14.7-22.2%. However, industrial production<br />

makes up 7.0-10.4%, retail sales 10.6-15.4%, fixed<br />

investment 10.4-16.4%, and exports just 1.9-2.9%.<br />

Figure 2. Primary Production in 2007<br />

(100Bn Yuan)<br />

20<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 2<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

23.6<br />

Whole Country (LHS) (%)<br />

6 Province (LHS)<br />

25<br />

Weight of 6 Province (RHS)<br />

23<br />

22.0<br />

20.9<br />

21<br />

1Q07 2Q07 3Q07<br />

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Mirae Asset Research<br />

estimates<br />

Long-term effect from snowstorm<br />

Annual GDP growth should not be significantly affected for<br />

the following positive factors:<br />

(1) 1Q GDP makes up just one-fifth of the entire year’s GDP<br />

(relatively lower than other quarters) as production<br />

activity nearly stops during the Lunar New Year holiday.<br />

(2) Coal shortage is to be eased once transportation is<br />

restored; Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Henan (46.7% of<br />

total domestic coal production) have not been seriously<br />

affected by the storm.<br />

(3) Post-storm reconstruction should enhance investments<br />

into infrastructure; special agricultural loans from the<br />

PBC for affected areas and subsidies from central states<br />

and other countries should boost the growth rate.<br />

However, inflation still remains a risk factor. Price has risen<br />

sharply since the storm. High inflation should sustain until<br />

restoration is complete. But we cannot rule out the<br />

possibility that this might prolong the inflation period, and<br />

exacerbate sluggishness in domestic demand.<br />

Investment implications<br />

Inflationary pressure heightened by variables like natural<br />

disasters are not significant factors for a rate hike. Although<br />

the snowstorm is likely to have increased inflationary<br />

pressure, the rate hike does not seem to be a card the PBC<br />

can use. Moreover, concerns of a US recession, and the<br />

Fed’s aggressive rate cuts are additional obstacles to a rate<br />

hike.<br />

19<br />

17<br />

15


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Fixed Income<br />

Comment<br />

Another liquidity cycle?<br />

Byungsoo Lee, CFA<br />

82-2-3774-2174 / bsool@miraeasset.com<br />

High possibility of Europe following US lead<br />

Monetary policy in advanced countries took note of the<br />

quick and sharp cuts in the US Fed Funds rate. Last week,<br />

the bank of England (BOE) also lowered its benchmark<br />

rate 25bp to 5.25%, following a December 2007 rate cut,<br />

reflecting concerns that a sharp slowdown of activity pulls<br />

inflation below its target in the mid term. The European<br />

Central Bank (ECB) newly expressed that uncertainty<br />

about prospects for economic growth are unusually high,<br />

even though it kept its rate on hold due to inflation risk.<br />

Figure 1. Monetary Easing in Advanced Countries<br />

(% ) Policy Rates in the Major Advanced Countries<br />

7<br />

6<br />

5<br />

4<br />

3<br />

US<br />

2<br />

Canada<br />

1<br />

0<br />

ECB<br />

UK<br />

03 04 05 06 07 08<br />

Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Research Center<br />

In its monetary statement of January 10, the ECB expects<br />

Europe to grow at pace close to its projected growth rate<br />

despite uncertainty in the overseas financial markets.<br />

However, recently the ECB took a more conservative<br />

stance on economic prospects due to the heightened<br />

possibility of the European economy being affected by a<br />

major slowdown in the US. We believe this is due mainly<br />

to the German and French economies slowing quicker<br />

than other European economies, adding to fears that this<br />

will affect the European economy as a whole<br />

Advanced countries affected by the US economic<br />

slowdown are highly likely to follow the US lead and lower<br />

benchmark rates as well. We need to focus on the fact<br />

that the BOE has continued to lower rates, even though<br />

the UK has strong domestic demand relative to other<br />

European countries. The European bond market has<br />

already priced in a future rate cut with government bond<br />

yields now below the ECB policy rate of 4%,<br />

BoK may stay ahead of the curve.<br />

The February BOK has decided to leave its benchmark<br />

rate at 5% (unchanged since August 2007). What is most<br />

different from previous statements is that the BOK is very<br />

concerned with the uncertainty of Korean economic<br />

prospects due to spillover from the US slowdown. With<br />

private consumption slowly moderating, the Korean<br />

economy is likely to grow at a slower pace if exports<br />

weaken (even though solid now) due to decrease in<br />

demand by major trading partners. Given the BOK<br />

chairman’s remarks on the possibility of preemptive easing<br />

of monetary policy ahead of adverse economic data, we<br />

expect the BOK to cut its benchmark rate by 50bp in the<br />

first half of this year.<br />

Other countries continue tightening stance<br />

With the uncertain over global financial markets, several<br />

resource-rich countries have been tightening their rates.<br />

Australia raised its benchmark rate to 7% and Russia<br />

raised its benchmark rate to 10.25%. These countries are<br />

exports-oriented and benefiting from the fast growth of<br />

emerging economies. This may imply that emerging<br />

countries are growing steadily relative to advanced<br />

countries and thus indicates that negative spillover effects<br />

from US are limited. However, we believe that these<br />

countries will need to lower rates going forward due to<br />

rapidly widening interest rates worldwide.<br />

Figure 2. Monetary Tightening Abroad<br />

(% ) Policy Rates in the High-Resource Countries<br />

20<br />

Australia<br />

18<br />

Russia<br />

16<br />

Norway<br />

14<br />

12<br />

10<br />

8<br />

6<br />

4<br />

2<br />

0<br />

Sweden<br />

03 04 05 06 07 08<br />

Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Research Center<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 3


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Fund Flows<br />

<strong>Weekly</strong> Update<br />

Funds Flow Bottomming….<br />

Sunyoung Ahn, CFA<br />

82-2-3774-1409 / syan@miraeasset.com<br />

Regional funds such as international funds and emerging market funds recorded slight net inflow or moderate net outflow. For<br />

the US funds, which had posted a large-scale outflow over three weeks consecutively, outflow declined to 70% of the level<br />

recorded two weeks ago (or US$6.7bn) last week.<br />

In Korea and India, foreign investors are selling some stocks for profit-taking. Meantime, in other Asian countries, moderate net<br />

purchase has been going on for the past three weeks.<br />

Due to the fund flow attributes lagging the market, it is premature to expect a dramatic turn into inflow. However, the fact that<br />

the global fund flow and foreign investors’ trading in Asia is stabilizing raises the expectations for the market’s bottoming out.<br />

Figure 1. Global & US Fund Flow Figure 2. Global Sector Fund Flow<br />

(US$ mn) 02/07~<br />

02/13<br />

<strong>Weekly</strong> Net Inflow<br />

01/31~<br />

02/06<br />

4-Wk Net<br />

Inflow<br />

YTD<br />

Total<br />

Asset<br />

Total Equity Type -7,606 -7,912 -36,600 -37,696 -<br />

Asia ex.<br />

Japan<br />

-461 -435 -7,059 -8,641 169,423<br />

South<br />

America<br />

Emerging<br />

markets<br />

EMEA<br />

-162<br />

-288<br />

-131<br />

-72<br />

-1,595<br />

-2,240<br />

-2,248<br />

-1,177<br />

45,030<br />

51,718<br />

Emerging<br />

markets<br />

Emerging<br />

-116 571 -3,855 -4,931 216,554<br />

markets,<br />

total<br />

-1,026 -68 -14,750 -16,996 482,724<br />

Pacific -5 35 -764 -1,113 21,420<br />

International 128 1,332 -5,937 -5,534 764,654<br />

US -6,725 -9,579 -32,031 -35,588 1,803,353<br />

Advanced Europe<br />

markets<br />

-1,105 -145 -7,031 -14,755 301,122<br />

Japan -279 -503 -3,207 -4,214 40,285<br />

Taxable Bond Fund 1,200 2,200 5,323 9,523 -<br />

Note: Each period from Thursday to Wednesday<br />

Source: AMG Data Service, EPFR (as of February 13, 2008)<br />

(US$ mn)<br />

<strong>Weekly</strong> Net Inflow<br />

Last 2 Weeks 3 Weeks<br />

Week ago ago<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 4<br />

4-Wk<br />

Total<br />

2008<br />

YTD<br />

Total<br />

Asset<br />

All Sector<br />

Funds<br />

-695 -2,147 -1,741 -3,855 -1,296 231,643<br />

Commodities/<br />

Materials<br />

155 -51 301 382 1,500 58,950<br />

Consumer Goods 307 109 -99 607 696 6,465<br />

Energy -641 -448 -711 -1,674 -2,560 26,892<br />

Financials 274 -1,445 222 -50 1,644 15,361<br />

Health Care/Biotech -68 -24 -135 -74 231 24,410<br />

Real Estate -425 -139 -579 -1,129 -895 45,749<br />

Technology -307 -132 -338 -1,044 -1,466 23,421<br />

Telecom -16 -100 -41 -283 -381 5,870<br />

Utilities 25 76 -343 -577 -50 24,273<br />

Note: Each period from Thursday to Wednesday<br />

Source: EPFR (as of February 13, 2008)<br />

Figure 3. Foreign Investors Trading Trend in Asia Figure 4. Foreign Investors in 6 Asian Countries<br />

(US$ mn)<br />

Last<br />

Week<br />

Foreign Investors' Net Purchases<br />

2<br />

Weeks<br />

ago<br />

3<br />

Weeks<br />

ago<br />

4<br />

Weeks<br />

ago<br />

4-Wk<br />

Total<br />

<strong>Weekly</strong> Market<br />

YTD<br />

Performance<br />

Korea -1,254 105 -745 -2,437 -4,332 -10,101 -4.72<br />

Taiwan 542 0 412 -586 368 -487 -1.81<br />

India -400 915 -1,182 -1,949 -2,616 -3,301 -3.31<br />

Thailand 269 304 380 -349 604 -333 3.31<br />

Indonesia 52 20 139 -76 134 207 -0.88<br />

Philippines 7 -35 3 -91 -115 -303 -1.16<br />

6 Asian<br />

Countries Total<br />

-784 1,308 -993 -5,488 -5,958 -14,318<br />

Japan N/A N/A -3,497 -1,495 -4,991 -6,799 0.12<br />

Note: Each period from Monday to Friday; Last week is from Monday to<br />

Thursday , Japanese as of January 25, 2008<br />

Source: Bloomberg(as of February 14, 2008)<br />

(pt)<br />

440<br />

400<br />

360<br />

320<br />

280<br />

240<br />

200<br />

160<br />

120<br />

80<br />

MSCI EM Asia Index (LHS)<br />

(USD mn)<br />

Foreign Investors' Accumulated Net Purchases<br />

220,000<br />

(RHS)<br />

190,000<br />

Jan-03 Nov-03 Sep-04 Jul-05 May-06 Mar-07 Jan-08<br />

Note: 6 Asia Markets include Korea, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Thailand,<br />

Philippines.<br />

Source: Bloomberg(as of February 14, 2008)<br />

160,000<br />

130,000<br />

100,000<br />

70,000<br />

40,000<br />

10,000<br />

(20,000)


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Quantitative Strategy<br />

<strong>Weekly</strong> Update<br />

Valuations vs. Earnings<br />

Young Jean Hwang<br />

82-2-3774-1780 / YoungJean@miraeasset.com<br />

Valuations reasonable<br />

The global stock market has been weakening since Nov<br />

2007 amid concerns over a potential recession of the US<br />

economy. While the MSCI AC World index declined 14%<br />

from its 2007 high, the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex. Japan<br />

index plunged 21% from its 2007 peak.<br />

This makes the valuations of the Asia Pacific ex. Japan<br />

market undemanding. 12-month forward P/E has declined<br />

28% from the previous high of 17.4x (Oct 29, 2007) to<br />

12.5x (Jan 22, 2008), and recently rebounded to 13.1x<br />

(Feb 13, 2008). The recent decline in 12-month forward<br />

P/E (from 17.4x to 12.5x) is the steepest since 2003, even<br />

in view of the decline of the 12-month forward P/E from its<br />

record high to its record low.<br />

Figure 1. 12-MF P/E in Asia-Pacific ex. Japan<br />

(x)<br />

18<br />

17.4x<br />

16.0x<br />

16<br />

14.6x<br />

14.2x<br />

13.9x<br />

14<br />

12.7x<br />

13.0x<br />

11.8x<br />

13.1x 12.9x<br />

12<br />

12.5x<br />

11.4x<br />

11.7x<br />

11.5x<br />

10<br />

10.2x 10.6x<br />

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />

Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

In addition, 12-month trailing P/B of the Asia Pacific ex.<br />

Japan market has decreased to 2.4x from the 3.0x historic<br />

high recorded in Oct 2007. Though this is above the 2.0x<br />

average since 2001, it seems reasonable that the ROE of<br />

the Asia Pacific ex. Japan market still maintains its upward<br />

trend.<br />

Figure 2. 12-MT P/B in Asia-Pacific ex. Japan<br />

(x) (%)<br />

1.0<br />

8<br />

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 5<br />

3.5<br />

3.0<br />

2.5<br />

2.0<br />

1.5<br />

12M Trailing P/B<br />

12M Trailing ROE<br />

Source : MSCI, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Earnings deteriorating<br />

Meanwhile, estimated earnings prospects of the Asia<br />

Pacific ex. Japan market continue to deteriorate.<br />

Upgrades have outpaced downgrades since mid-January<br />

2008. The earnings revision ratio in the Asia Pacific ex.<br />

Japan market has recently plunged to -20%, the lowest<br />

since 2003.<br />

The earnings revision ratio fell to 0% in August 2007 when<br />

the seriousness of the subprime issue first began to be felt.<br />

In December 2007, it began declining further into negative<br />

territory over concerns of a potential recession in the US<br />

consumption that began to take shape.<br />

Figure 3. Earnings Revision Ratio in <strong>AP</strong> ex. Japan<br />

(%)<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

-10<br />

Earnings revision ratio (weekly)<br />

-20<br />

Earnings revision ratio (4-week MA)<br />

-30<br />

Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08<br />

Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

On a country level, countries that are highly linked to the<br />

US economy have experienced more deterioration in<br />

forecast earnings. The earnings revision ratios in Taiwan<br />

and Korea have recently plummeted into deep negative<br />

territory (from positive territory in November 2007). In<br />

Japan, its earnings revision ratio has been declining<br />

further into the negative, as well. On the contrary, the<br />

earnings revision ratios in India and Hong Kong have<br />

remained relatively robust.<br />

18<br />

16<br />

14<br />

12<br />

10


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Figure 4. Earnings Revision Ratios by Country<br />

(%)<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

-20<br />

-40<br />

-60<br />

Indonesia<br />

India<br />

Malaysia<br />

Hong Kong<br />

China<br />

Pakistan<br />

Philippines<br />

Nov 2007 Feb 2008<br />

Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Continuously deteriorating earnings revision ratios in the<br />

Asia Pacific ex. Japan market are likely to imply that the<br />

downward revision of forecast EPS is becoming a marketwide<br />

trend. As such, it is highly likely to deal a blow to<br />

valuation attractiveness in Asia Pacific ex. Japan.<br />

Market direction<br />

All in all, we think that while reasonable valuations will limit<br />

the market’s downside risk, stock markets are likely to<br />

remain range-bound until there is greater clarity about<br />

macroeconomic and earnings growth.<br />

Singapore<br />

Australia<br />

Japan<br />

Thailand<br />

New Zealand<br />

Korea<br />

Taiwan<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 6


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Earnings & Valuation / Performance Table<br />

Young Jean Hwang<br />

82-2-3774-1780 / YoungJean@miraeasset.com<br />

Table 1. Earnings & Valuation / Performance : Global Market<br />

Country Weight # Co's EPS G (%) EPS Change (%) ERR - 12MF 12-month Forward Valuation Performance<br />

08E 09E LT(5Y) 2008E 2009E 02/13 1W 1M PER PBR EV/EBITDA DY PEG 1W 1M 12M YTD<br />

(%) (YoY) (YoY) Forcast 1W 1M 1W 1M (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%)<br />

AC World 100.0 2,872 12.2 11.8 12.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -29 -27 -12 12.4 2.1 7.5 3.1 1.0 1.6 -4.9 -7 -9<br />

Developed Market 88.8 1,945 11.7 11.6 11.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -35 -32 -17 12.5 2.1 7.6 3.1 1.1 1.7 -4.5 -9 -9<br />

EAFE 42.1 1,205 8.6 10.2 9.6 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.4 -41 -37 -13 11.4 1.8 7.3 3.6 1.2 0.2 -7.0 -14 -12<br />

Pacific 12.7 586 5.0 10.9 11.6 -0.8 0.3 -0.5 0.6 -33 -30 -10 13.1 1.4 8.6 2.5 1.1 -1.0 -7.7 -20 -13<br />

North America 46.7 740 15.4 13.2 12.6 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.4 -25 -22 -24 13.7 2.9 7.9 2.5 1.1 3.1 -2.2 -5 -7<br />

Europe 29.4 619 9.9 10.0 8.8 -1.4 -2.0 -1.5 -2.2 -49 -44 -17 10.8 1.9 6.7 4.1 1.2 0.7 -6.6 -11 -11<br />

Emerging Market 11.2 927 15.8 13.1 19.3 -0.2 -0.9 -0.5 -1.1 -16 -15 2 12.1 2.0 6.9 2.9 0.6 0.5 -7.9 15 -11<br />

Asia 5.9 555 16.7 14.4 21.7 0.0 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7 -24 -22 2 12.8 2.0 6.8 2.8 0.6 -2.8 -11.3 17 -14<br />

Latin America 2.5 148 15.3 10.1 17.0 1.1 -0.2 0.1 -1.0 -2 -1 -2 12.5 3.6 8.9 3.7 0.7 6.0 0.9 23 -4<br />

Europe 1.6 102 11.9 8.6 13.9 -0.1 0.8 -0.2 -0.2 13 16 -3 10.1 1.5 6.4 2.6 0.7 4.1 -10.7 8 -12<br />

AC Asia Pacific 18.6 1,141 8.5 12.0 14.9 -0.6 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 -28 -26 -4 13.0 1.6 8.1 2.6 0.9 -1.6 -8.9 -11 -14<br />

AC <strong>AP</strong> ex. Japan 10.1 744 8.6 14.6 17.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 -24 -22 1 13.1 2.1 9.7 3.3 0.8 -2.2 -10.5 7 -14<br />

AC Asia 15.8 1,043 9.5 11.6 16.0 -0.8 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -28 -25 -4 13.1 1.5 6.9 2.3 0.8 -1.6 -9.1 -12 -14<br />

AC Asia ex. Japan 7.3 646 10.7 14.5 20.4 0.0 -0.7 -0.2 -0.7 -23 -20 1 13.3 2.0 7.2 2.9 0.7 -2.4 -11.5 15 -14<br />

Australia 2.7 88 13.9 7.9 9.0 0.0 0.8 0.5 2.0 -31 -40 -7 12.7 2.3 15.8 4.5 1.4 -1.7 -7.7 -7 -13<br />

Hong Kong 1.0 54 -19.8 16.2 16.1 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.4 -6 9 2 17.4 1.8 12.4 3.0 1.1 -1.5 -13.3 12 -16<br />

Japan 8.5 397 8.3 9.1 12.0 -1.4 -2.6 -1.2 -2.6 -37 -34 -13 13.1 1.3 6.7 1.8 1.1 -0.8 -6.9 -26 -13<br />

New Zealand 0.1 10 5.2 6.0 6.8 0.2 -0.5 0.1 -1.0 -40 -30 20 12.7 2.0 6.7 5.7 1.9 -4.9 -8.9 -19 -13<br />

Singapore 0.5 37 3.3 13.4 13.3 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -1.9 -31 -28 -6 12.7 1.8 3.4 4.1 1.0 0.4 -9.8 -6 -15<br />

China 1.6 112 21.5 16.6 23.8 0.0 1.1 -0.2 0.5 -9 -18 8 15.1 2.7 7.4 2.4 0.6 -0.6 -16.6 37 -18<br />

India 0.8 63 20.7 23.3 28.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 1.0 21 16 34 18.0 3.3 11.1 1.1 0.6 -7.4 -20.7 22 -19<br />

Indonesia 0.2 23 17.1 17.1 39.3 0.7 3.7 0.7 5.4 48 26 65 14.7 4.1 6.5 2.8 0.4 -0.9 -5.0 65 -2<br />

Korea 1.5 113 15.6 14.3 18.2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -54 -41 -36 10.5 1.4 5.5 2.0 0.6 -4.7 -7.3 13 -14<br />

Malaysia 0.3 56 -6.1 11.8 15.4 0.5 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -6 6 15 15.3 2.3 7.1 3.6 1.0 0.8 -6.0 16 -1<br />

Pakistan 0.0 13 18.7 10.1 12.6 -0.2 0.9 -0.2 0.4 -10 -10 -10 11.0 NA 6.9 4.7 0.9 1.2 3.9 15 3<br />

Philippines 0.1 18 15.0 19.3 13.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.8 -28 -17 11 13.9 2.3 6.2 3.2 1.1 -0.7 -8.2 -5 -11<br />

Taiwan 1.1 123 10.0 9.2 18.3 -0.4 -6.1 -0.9 -5.4 -57 -56 -12 11.1 1.7 6.3 5.2 0.6 -1.8 -5.1 -5 -11<br />

Thailand 0.2 34 100.9 6.9 12.3 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.3 -39 -29 20 11.2 2.0 6.5 3.8 0.9 4.5 5.6 24 -3<br />

AC Americas 49.3 888 15.4 13.0 12.8 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.3 -22 -20 -21 13.6 2.9 7.9 2.5 1.1 3.3 -2.1 -4 -6<br />

US 42.9 635 15.8 13.5 12.6 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.3 -27 -23 -27 13.6 2.9 7.9 2.5 1.1 3.1 -2.2 -5 -7<br />

Canada 3.8 105 11.0 9.8 11.6 0.7 1.8 1.0 2.6 -10 -15 -2 13.7 2.4 6.5 3.0 1.2 3.3 -2.6 2 -4<br />

Argentina 0.1 11 23 7.9 NA 66.7 77.9 -2.5 -2.2 0 0 0 10.5 NA NA 2.6 NA -0.1 -2.2 -13 -9<br />

Brazil 1.6 69 11.7 12.1 14.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 0.9 -3 0 -2 12.1 3.1 8.3 4.7 0.8 6.6 0.8 39 -4<br />

Chile 0.1 27 21.4 12.2 13.1 1.3 0.2 1.4 -0.3 13 7 13 15.0 1.8 7.0 3.0 1.1 5.0 1.6 -6 -6<br />

Colombia 0.0 7 45.1 30.2 NA -0.7 0.9 -0.3 14.3 100 100 0 10.4 NA NA 3.9 NA 1.5 -10.1 -8 -14<br />

Mexico 0.6 28 22.7 4.1 23.8 -0.4 -2.0 -0.2 -6.3 -17 -18 -15 13.2 2.7 6.9 3.4 0.6 5.2 1.9 2 -1<br />

Peru 0.1 6 49.3 -12.5 15.0 -4.7 -10.1 -3.8 -16.5 0 0 100 19.2 NA NA NA 1.3 9.0 1.9 57 1<br />

AC Europe 31.0 721 10.0 9.9 8.9 -1.3 -1.9 -1.4 -2.1 -41 -37 -15 10.8 1.9 6.7 4.0 1.2 0.9 -6.8 -11 -11<br />

Austria 0.2 16 9.6 9.8 9.9 -0.1 -1.3 -0.5 -1.4 -38 -25 13 9.1 1.4 5.6 3.3 0.9 1.0 -4.5 -23 -13<br />

Belgium 0.5 22 2.0 12.9 7.9 -3.5 -8.4 -3.1 -8.4 -14 -5 -27 10.0 1.8 7.2 4.5 1.3 0.3 -9.5 -29 -13<br />

Denmark 0.4 23 15.6 14.0 17.5 0.3 -0.6 0.1 -0.5 -36 -50 -14 13.4 2.5 8.8 1.9 0.8 3.3 0.5 -5 -8<br />

Finland 0.8 23 -6.1 7.5 6.0 -0.1 1.1 -0.8 0.3 -30 -30 -26 13.5 2.9 8.0 3.4 2.2 3.7 4.6 16 -6<br />

France 4.4 74 13.6 9.5 6.4 -0.7 -1.9 -0.9 -2.3 -57 -58 -28 10.5 1.6 5.9 4.1 1.6 0.9 -8.6 -15 -13<br />

Germany 3.9 61 9.2 12.1 8.3 -0.3 -1.3 -0.5 -1.4 -58 -33 -16 11.0 1.7 5.8 3.5 1.3 2.0 -8.8 -1 -13<br />

Greece 0.3 15 13.7 17.7 21.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -47 -7 -20 11.0 2.2 7.3 4.5 0.5 -1.1 -11.3 -8 -16<br />

Ireland 0.3 14 7.1 7.6 7.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -2.0 -57 -71 -21 8.4 1.4 7.8 4.9 1.2 0.1 -0.6 -34 -4<br />

Italy 1.7 40 11.1 9.8 6.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -44 -28 -28 10.0 1.6 5.3 5.3 1.6 0.5 -8.9 -20 -11<br />

Netherlands 1.2 24 2.4 10.2 6.6 -0.3 -1.5 -0.3 -1.3 -63 -63 -25 10.4 1.8 6.6 4.2 1.6 -0.2 -7.1 -11 -13<br />

Norway 0.4 22 4.8 12.0 9.6 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -45 -27 -9 10.4 1.9 4.8 4.1 1.1 0.6 -8.0 -14 -18<br />

Portugal 0.2 11 7.6 11.3 7.7 -0.6 -2.0 -0.8 -2.7 -45 -45 -36 13.4 2.4 8.9 4.4 1.7 0.9 -8.9 -9 -12<br />

Spain 1.7 31 13.1 12.8 8.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -77 -71 0 10.5 2.0 7.3 4.9 1.3 1.5 -9.3 -10 -14<br />

Sweden 1.0 48 5.3 8.4 6.4 -1.5 -4.2 -1.9 -4.4 -67 -62 -24 10.7 2.0 7.1 4.8 1.7 0.8 -2.3 -20 -12<br />

Switzerland 2.9 39 33.5 11.2 11.9 -1.1 -3.0 -1.2 -3.1 -50 -55 -13 12.0 2.4 8.8 3.1 1.0 -0.3 -7.3 -19 -11<br />

UK 9.5 156 5.7 8.3 9.8 -0.2 -1.6 -0.1 -1.6 -40 -42 -10 10.9 2.0 7.3 4.3 1.1 0.1 -4.8 -9 -9<br />

Czech Rep. 0.1 7 18.6 8.7 18.9 0.1 0.6 -0.7 -1.6 -33 17 17 14.4 3.6 9.0 4.1 0.8 2.6 -2.3 15 -9<br />

Hungary 0.1 4 10.2 6.4 7.3 0.5 0.8 -0.3 -0.8 50 25 0 9.9 2.1 6.0 3.5 1.4 7.2 -1.2 1 -7<br />

Poland 0.2 28 6.3 9.2 19.6 2.1 -3.8 -0.2 -6.8 -19 -38 -4 10.9 1.1 5.8 4.5 0.6 4.3 -3.9 -13 -11<br />

Russia 1.1 32 13.5 6.8 13.4 -0.1 2.1 -0.3 1.0 52 67 -10 10.0 1.4 6.5 1.7 0.7 4.1 -12.4 14 -11<br />

Turkey 0.2 31 8.1 18.4 11.3 -1.5 1.3 1.3 3.6 17 27 -3 8.2 1.7 4.9 4.8 0.7 3.1 -13.9 1 -20<br />

Israel 0.3 32 13.1 29.1 14.6 -0.8 -1.9 1.2 -1.8 -5 -14 19 12.2 2.0 9.8 4.4 0.8 2.0 -5.0 6 -7<br />

Egypt 0.1 17 10.3 15.0 15.0 0.7 4.9 -3.9 -0.7 -17 -8 27 15.2 NA 8.5 2.7 1.0 -1.6 -8.2 40 -5<br />

South Africa 0.7 50 21.6 17.7 11.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 1.9 -32 -22 2 10.4 2.4 6.7 4.0 0.9 2.1 -0.4 3 -3<br />

Note : Above table is as of Feb. 13, 2008.<br />

Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 7


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Table 2. Earnings & Valuation / Performance : MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex. Japan<br />

Country Weight # Co's EPS G (%) EPS Change (%) ERR - 12MF 12-month Forward Valuation Performance<br />

08E 09E LT(5Y) 2008E 2009E 02/13 1W 1M PER PBR EV/EBITDA DY PEG 1W 1M 12M YTD<br />

(%) (YoY) (YoY) Forcast 1W 1M 1W 1M (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%)<br />

Market 100.0 744 8.6 14.6 17.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 -24 -22 1 13.1 2.1 9.7 3.3 0.8 -2.2 -10.5 7 -14<br />

Energy 8.2 40 19.3 12.1 17.7 0.7 3.7 0.5 4.0 31 13 18 13.4 2.7 7.8 2.6 0.8 -1.7 -15.5 48 -16<br />

Materials 13.1 77 6.6 12.8 9.4 -0.1 1.4 1.3 4.7 -19 -33 5 11.3 2.3 6.5 2.9 1.2 0.2 -7.8 28 -10<br />

Chemicals 2.0 21 8.1 -4.7 9.2 0.7 0.1 0.7 -0.2 -20 -40 5 10.8 1.9 10.6 5.2 1.2 2.0 -11.4 29 -12<br />

Metals & Mining 9.7 33 6.1 16.7 7.9 -0.5 1.8 1.4 6.6 -6 -25 -9 11.2 2.3 5.8 2.3 1.4 0.1 -6.4 37 -9<br />

Paper & Forest Products 0.1 4 29.2 37.6 30.2 0.4 -3.1 0.3 -4.5 -100 -100 0 11.8 1.8 9.4 2.6 0.4 -3.4 -26.5 -35 -36<br />

Industrials 12.0 137 1.9 21.1 24.6 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -1.5 -28 -24 -6 14.6 2.1 8.6 2.5 0.6 -2.0 -13.4 17 -16<br />

Building Products 0.1 2 20.8 19.8 6.3 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -1.0 -50 50 -50 16.8 1.5 10.5 1.3 2.7 8.8 -11.5 57 -12<br />

Construction & Engineering 2.4 18 21.2 27.0 34.7 1.1 2.5 0.1 -1.5 22 -11 -6 17.6 3.4 10.7 1.6 0.5 -6.1 -18.4 63 -18<br />

Electrical Equipment 0.7 11 23.8 25.9 37.7 -0.6 -3.5 -0.9 -2.1 -27 -55 -18 16.9 2.6 11.4 1.5 0.4 -1.7 -16.1 34 -19<br />

Machinery 1.5 14 37.3 29.6 50.3 -0.8 -1.4 -1.2 -2.0 -71 -14 -36 9.8 2.6 6.7 1.7 0.2 -1.5 -16.8 43 -22<br />

Trading Companies & Distrib 0.4 6 4.4 20.3 33.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 20 -20 -40 19.2 1.8 13.7 1.2 0.6 -4.6 -13.8 44 -23<br />

Commercial Services & Supp 0.5 4 9.1 12.4 12.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.8 -25 -75 50 15.8 5.4 8.6 3.8 1.3 -5.8 -4.9 -29 -15<br />

Airlines 0.8 13 35.8 12.5 0.9 -1.2 -0.9 -2.0 -3.8 -15 15 -46 11.7 1.4 6.5 3.8 12.4 0.2 -9.9 8 -15<br />

Marine 1.0 18 -10.2 13.6 22.8 0.3 -2.8 -0.8 -7.4 -76 -65 35 9.2 1.6 6.2 3.9 0.4 2.9 -9.0 44 -11<br />

Road & Rail 0.4 5 -3.8 17.7 6.0 -0.1 2.6 -0.1 -1.3 -20 -20 -20 19.8 1.7 11.5 4.4 3.3 -2.6 -10.1 -6 -11<br />

Consumer Discretionary 5.6 83 16.7 15.7 21.6 0.8 0.1 0.5 -0.3 -16 -16 6 13.1 1.9 8.5 3.2 0.6 -2.3 -8.0 -4 -13<br />

Auto Components 0.3 5 11.5 8.5 17.2 -0.7 -3.0 -0.5 -2.5 -60 -60 -40 8.6 1.4 6.3 2.3 0.5 -3.1 -10.8 1 -15<br />

Automobiles 1.1 15 24.5 16.8 14.2 1.7 0.6 0.8 -0.2 14 14 71 10.1 1.2 6.3 2.0 0.7 -3.9 -6.6 -1 -9<br />

Household Durables 0.4 7 52.6 9.2 67.4 1.9 4.8 1.2 2.1 0 0 20 8.5 1.6 7.0 1.8 0.1 -4.6 -6.3 17 -11<br />

Textiles, Apparel & Luxury G 0.3 9 17.4 31.9 15.3 -2.4 -4.2 -1.4 -3.2 -57 -43 0 10.8 1.5 7.5 3.2 0.7 -3.4 -10.8 -19 -19<br />

Hotels, Restaurants & Leisur 1.3 16 1.7 12.0 13.6 0.7 -0.6 0.2 -1.1 -25 -25 -31 17.0 2.3 9.4 4.2 1.2 -1.4 -7.1 -13 -10<br />

Media 0.5 12 7.5 17.7 14.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 -9 -9 18 16.0 2.1 9.7 5.3 1.1 0.3 -7.0 -12 -10<br />

Retailing 1.5 15 12.5 18.5 23.9 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0 -7 -7 17.6 3.4 11.5 2.9 0.7 -1.8 -9.1 11 -18<br />

Consumer Staples 5.1 47 1.9 16.3 14.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 2.3 -5 -5 -16 17.6 3.1 11.3 3.3 1.2 -0.8 -9.1 13 -10<br />

Food & Staples Retailing 2.2 8 5.2 19.6 10.1 0.8 -1.2 1.7 1.9 -71 -57 -14 18.5 2.9 10.9 3.6 1.8 -1.7 -10.7 7 -14<br />

Food, Beverage & Tobacco 2.5 33 -2.5 13.7 17.6 1.0 3.5 0.9 3.5 13 6 -15 16.5 3.0 11.4 3.1 0.9 0.3 -6.8 19 -5<br />

Household & Personal Produ 0.4 6 19.7 17.3 19.5 -0.8 -1.4 -0.9 -1.6 -20 0 -20 20.7 6.6 14.8 2.6 1.1 -2.7 -13.2 12 -11<br />

Health Care 1.2 15 21.2 20.0 19.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 27 27 27 19.4 4.4 13.5 2.0 1.0 -4.6 -9.0 12 -12<br />

Biotechnology 0.5 1 26 29.3 23.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4 100 -100 -100 22.3 7.6 15.4 1.5 1.0 -4.8 -7.3 40 -9<br />

Pharmaceuticals 0.3 8 18.3 14.4 17.4 1.0 -0.8 0.3 -1.5 13 13 38 16.1 3.0 12.2 1.2 0.9 -4.0 -11.7 -1 -16<br />

Financials 33.1 186 9.3 13.8 17.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 -34 -24 3 12.7 1.8 16.0 4.0 0.7 -3.2 -12.3 -4 -16<br />

Banks 17.1 70 15.9 11.9 13.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 -21 -17 -3 11.2 1.7 18.4 4.8 0.9 -4.3 -10.8 -8 -14<br />

Capital Markets 1.2 14 1.2 10.2 15.4 -0.8 -3.5 -0.5 -2.2 -83 -67 0 9.5 1.4 11.3 4.6 0.6 -6.8 -17.0 -4 -24<br />

Insurance 4.1 15 -3.4 12.9 19.5 -1.0 -0.1 -0.4 1.4 -87 -47 -27 14.2 2.4 8.5 3.8 0.7 -3.0 -14.8 -7 -20<br />

Information Technology 11.2 93 17.1 16.2 18.3 0.1 -4.6 -0.2 -3.7 -51 -52 -6 11.4 1.8 5.6 3.2 0.6 -3.6 -3.9 -11 -14<br />

Internet Software & Service 0.6 4 45.7 32.7 42.5 0.6 2.2 0.2 0.9 100 100 50 28.8 9.7 20.6 0.5 0.7 -4.0 -15.4 60 -16<br />

IT Services 1.1 7 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 4.5 11.5 1.5 NA 2.0 -4.4 -28 -14<br />

Software 0.0 1 36.1 33.9 2.0 -0.3 -3.2 -0.3 -1.5 -100 -100 100 13.3 1.7 7.5 NA 6.6 -5.6 -7.2 -19 -11<br />

Communications Equipment 0.2 5 17.0 20.9 14.7 0.1 -3.1 0.0 -2.2 -100 -100 -60 10.3 2.1 7.1 4.5 0.7 -5.6 -17.5 -34 -27<br />

Computers & Peripherals 1.5 21 13.7 17.3 22.1 0.9 -3.7 0.8 -5.3 -68 -79 -47 9.4 1.8 6.5 5.0 0.4 -3.0 -10.3 -13 -22<br />

Electronic Equip. & Instr. 2.4 26 41.7 3.1 24.9 1.3 1.2 -0.4 -3.2 -43 -43 14 8.4 1.5 4.3 3.0 0.3 -3.6 -10.0 -5 -21<br />

Office Electronics 0.0 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA -1.8 -3.2 -19 -9<br />

Semiconductors 5.4 28 4.8 25.1 12.9 -0.9 -9.3 -0.3 -3.9 -63 -58 -21 12.6 1.5 5.3 3.3 1.0 -4.8 3.4 -11 -7<br />

Telecom. Services 7.6 30 -4.5 13.4 17.6 -0.1 -1.1 -0.2 -1.2 -24 -21 3 15.7 2.9 6.9 3.4 0.9 -0.3 -9.1 29 -10<br />

Diversified Telecom. Service 3.3 17 6.2 8.1 8.6 0.4 -0.8 0.3 -1.0 0 6 25 14.2 2.4 6.4 4.4 1.7 2.5 -3.5 13 -3<br />

Wireless Telecom. Services 4.4 13 -12.1 18.0 23.5 -0.4 -1.3 -0.6 -1.3 -54 -54 -23 17.0 3.4 7.3 2.8 0.7 -2.4 -12.8 45 -15<br />

Utilities 3.0 36 1.2 4.5 7.3 -1.2 -2.5 -1.8 -3.3 -33 -18 -6 14.6 1.4 9.8 3.2 2.0 -3.9 -10.5 7 -11<br />

Electric Utilities 1.4 10 -0.1 -0.8 2.2 -2.5 -3.1 -3.2 -3.8 -30 -20 20 13.8 1.1 9.9 3.4 6.4 -5.5 -7.2 5 -5<br />

Gas Utilities 0.7 7 -5.0 10.6 13.9 1.4 1.6 0.6 1.2 33 33 0 19.2 3.4 13.7 2.2 1.4 -0.8 -9.4 37 -12<br />

Note : Above table is as of Feb. 13, 2008.<br />

Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 8


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Table 3. FY08 Forecast Earnings Change (1M)<br />

<strong>AP</strong> ex JP Australia China Hong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia New Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand<br />

Kong Zealand<br />

Market -0.1 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.7 3.7 -2.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -6.1 0.9<br />

Energy 3.7 2.6 3.8 NA 2.3 29.5 -6.9 -7.5 0.7 NA 0.8 0.8 0.0 3.2<br />

Materials 1.4 4.7 -0.6 -1.6 2.9 0.2 -2.0 -1.9 -0.3 -0.9 NA NA -0.3 -5.9<br />

Industrials 0.0 -1.0 0.9 -0.7 0.7 -12.8 -0.6 0.2 -0.9 -1.3 0.0 -2.6 -7.7 -8.8<br />

Consumer Discretionary 0.1 -3.2 0.9 0.4 -0.2 5.8 -3.3 -0.2 1.2 1.5 -3.9 1.7 -9.4 2.2<br />

Consumer Staples 1.0 0.6 3.1 0.9 0.1 4.7 -2.2 -1.3 2.4 NA -5.9 3.8 26.1 -2.1<br />

Health Care 0.9 -0.2 NA NA 0.8 0.6 -2.3 -3.7 NA 0.3 NA -0.3 NA NA<br />

Financials 0.2 -0.6 0.9 1.2 1.9 -0.4 -3.3 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 -0.7 -1.1 -4.6 1.0<br />

I T -4.6 -1.1 -8.7 -1.9 -1.1 NA -4.4 0.9 0.0 NA NA -1.4 -8.7 -1.3<br />

Telecom. Services -1.1 -2.3 0.1 0.9 -1.3 -1.0 1.1 -5.9 -1.1 -1.2 -0.4 0.2 -7.2 0.6<br />

Utilities -2.5 0.7 -3.1 -0.1 -6.1 -2.3 -3.8 -7.6 0.5 -0.5 0.5 NA NA 0.4<br />

Note : Above table is as of Feb. 13, 2008.<br />

Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Table 4. 12-month Forward P/E<br />

<strong>AP</strong> ex JP Australia China Hong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia New Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand<br />

Kong Zealand<br />

Market 13.1 12.7 15.1 17.4 18.0 14.7 13.1 10.5 15.3 12.7 13.9 12.7 11.1 11.2<br />

Energy 13.4 16.6 12.8 NA 17.3 20.2 11.0 7.7 14.1 NA 7.0 6.3 10.0 10.1<br />

Materials 11.3 12.0 13.8 9.1 9.5 12.6 10.2 10.0 16.2 8.9 NA NA 10.3 10.1<br />

Industrials 14.6 17.1 16.2 16.3 24.3 17.2 11.9 12.0 16.3 28.4 15.2 12.4 13.1 11.6<br />

Consumer Discretionary 13.1 14.8 16.7 18.9 12.5 13.7 11.8 8.8 17.2 13.8 16.1 14.6 13.7 18.8<br />

Consumer Staples 17.6 17.3 15.9 31.1 19.9 16.6 20.6 16.8 20.1 NA 14.5 22.4 17.7 14.6<br />

Health Care 19.4 20.8 NA NA 16.6 11.7 15.0 16.9 NA 24.6 NA 24.3 NA NA<br />

Financials 12.7 11.1 14.2 17.8 23.5 12.8 12.6 8.3 13.4 15.8 15.3 11.9 13.5 12.3<br />

I T 11.4 14.5 17.9 14.6 15.5 NA 15.2 11.5 11.2 NA NA 7.7 10.5 7.0<br />

Telecom. Services 15.7 15.3 18.7 20.2 18.6 13.2 14.4 10.2 16.1 10.8 13.7 15.3 12.7 17.2<br />

Utilities 14.6 14.1 14.2 16.7 20.9 14.3 25.1 11.1 12.8 16.8 10.6 NA NA 8.5<br />

Note : Above table is as of Feb. 13, 2008.<br />

Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Table 5. Performance (1M)<br />

<strong>AP</strong> ex JP Australia China Hong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia New Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand<br />

Kong Zealand<br />

Market -10.5 -7.7 -16.6 -13.3 -20.7 -5.0 -6.9 -7.3 -6.0 -8.9 -8.2 -9.8 -5.1 5.6<br />

Energy -15.5 -8.3 -18.7 NA -23.7 11.0 -14.3 -26.2 -7.5 NA 0.0 -17.3 -18.1 1.8<br />

Materials -7.8 -2.1 -24.2 -37.7 -21.5 -11.0 -16.8 -7.6 -8.3 -17.3 NA NA -10.0 -2.8<br />

Industrials -13.4 -3.8 -14.8 -13.0 -23.4 -0.6 -3.8 -16.3 -7.8 -2.2 -14.7 -14.2 -3.2 4.3<br />

Consumer Discretionary -8.0 -7.0 -18.8 -5.1 -15.3 -12.4 -5.5 -5.7 -3.9 -7.2 0.0 -6.7 -7.9 10.4<br />

Consumer Staples -9.1 -10.0 -12.5 -13.5 -12.7 -10.9 -5.1 -7.0 -3.5 NA -13.2 -17.4 1.8 9.2<br />

Health Care -9.0 -7.8 NA NA -13.2 -7.1 -7.7 -5.4 NA -15.8 NA -8.0 NA NA<br />

Financials -12.3 -11.3 -17.5 -16.3 -21.6 -10.0 -6.8 -8.8 -7.1 -5.9 -10.6 -10.4 8.2 12.9<br />

I T -3.9 -7.7 -8.3 -18.3 -3.9 NA -9.7 6.7 -2.7 NA NA -12.3 -7.6 2.2<br />

Telecom. Services -9.1 1.6 -13.2 -4.9 -30.0 -3.8 -5.0 -5.4 -5.7 -5.5 -3.1 -0.5 1.5 10.4<br />

Utilities -10.5 -9.3 -13.9 0.1 -31.8 -18.6 3.8 -5.5 -4.2 -8.5 -5.8 NA NA -0.6<br />

Note : Above table is as of Feb. 13, 2008.<br />

Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 9


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Table 6. Asia Pacific Company Map : Top and Bottom of 1M EPS Change & 1M Performance<br />

Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Consumer Health Financials IT Telecomm. Utilities<br />

Discretionary Staples Care Services<br />

Australia WorleyParsons Newcrest Mining Leighton Holdings Pacific Brands Goodman Fielder Ansell Bendigo Bank AGL Energy<br />

1.3 / -6.5 9.9 / 6.8 0.7 / 3.3 0.1 / -2.2 0.0 / 2.6 1.2 / 6.5 0.7 / -11.6 0.4 / 3.1<br />

Paladin Energy Alumina Asciano Group Crown Futuris Cochlear Perpetual Computershare Telstra<br />

-11.2 / 10.4 -27.0 / -1.6 -3.4 / -4.7 -4.4 / 1.9 -2.0 / -8.4 -1.1 / -13.3 -4.1 / -10.1 -0.9 / 5.7 -0.2 / 4.5<br />

China Inner Mongolia Yita China Molybdenum China Eastern Airlin Dongfeng Motor Gr Global Bio-Chem Te China Insurance InteLenovo Group China Communicati China Resources P<br />

50.1 / -2.9 1.1 / -2.0 154.2 / 7.0 2.7 / 2.4 7.6 / 9.1 8.6 / 3.3 6.9 / 5.9 2.5 / 0.3 0.9 / -4.9<br />

China Petroleum & Shougang Concord Citic Resources HoldFU JI Food & CaterinChina Mengniu Dair Bank of China ZTE CORP H China Telecom Guangdong Electri<br />

-1.0 / -1.4 -10.1 / -1.0 -16.2 / 4.7 -8.7 / -5.8 -1.4 / -2.4 -4.7 / -2.8 -0.2 / -0.2 -0.7 / 2.5 -2.8 / -1.6<br />

Hong Fosun International Melco International Lifestyle Internation Hang Lung PropertieKingboard Chemica PCCW Hong Kong & Chin<br />

Kong 0.0 / -6.6 12.2 / 3.3 3.1 / 2.1 4.1 / 1.1 0.7 / -0.8 1.4 / -0.4 0.6 / 2.6<br />

Lee & Man Paper MHutchison Whampo Yue Yuen Industrial Chinese Estates (HoFoxconn Internation Hutchison TelecommHongKong Electric<br />

-4.5 / -5.5 -2.3 / -1.9 -4.1 / -3.6 -5.9 / -1.6 -2.1 / -7.6 -1.5 / -1.8 0.0 / 0.1<br />

Indonesia Bumi Resources Indocement TunggaUnited Tractors Astra International Astra Agro Lestari Kalbe Farma Bank Danamon Ind Indosat<br />

-2.3 / -0.7 5.3 / -0.7 8.7 / -2.7 5.7 / -0.4 4.3 / -5.4 0.1 / 0.0 0.7 / -0.7 -0.2 / 1.4<br />

Energi Mega PersadInternational Nickel Truba Alam Manun Ramayana Lestari S Gudang Garam Bank Mandiri (Perse Telekomunikasi Ind Perusahaan Gas N<br />

-21.7 / -4.5 -0.2 / 4.1 -21.7 / -3.2 0.8 / 1.4 0.0 / -0.6 -1.0 / -2.3 -0.4 / 1.5 -0.6 / -2.0<br />

India Cairn India Jindal Steel & Powe Jaiprakash Associat Indian Hotels ITC Sun Pharmaceutical Infrastructure Devel HCL Technologies Mahanagar TelephoGAIL (India)<br />

33.9 / -1.7 15.9 / -13.6 4.1 / -26.9 2.6 / -13.1 0.7 / -1.9 14.7 / -0.2 7.9 / -13.9 0.7 / -4.7 1.4 / -6.7 2.9 / -8.7<br />

Bharat Petroleum Sterlite Industries (InGMR Infrastructure Bajaj Auto United Spirits Dr. Reddy's LaboratIndiabulls Financial SWipro Videsh Sanchar Nig Tata Power<br />

-1.6 / -2.4 -7.9 / -7.2 -12.1 / -16.5 -2.4 / -13.6 -5.6 / -6.9 -10.3 / -4.2 -4.4 / -5.4 -3.2 / -3.5 -4.3 / -7.1 -6.1 / -14.8<br />

Japan Japan Petroleum Ex Sumitomo Osaka C Odakyu Electric Rai Sanyo Electric Sapporo Holdings Taisho Pharmaceuti Acom Konami Nippon Telegraph &The Chugoku Elect<br />

0.0 / 3.0 2.6 / 2.1 10.8 / -1.6 184.4 / 6.6 13.5 / -4.9 11.6 / -0.2 15.0 / 4.5 3.2 / 2.2 2.5 / -0.4 0.1 / 2.7<br />

TonenGeneral SekiyMitsubishi Rayon Ebara Sega Sammy HoldinHouse Foods Chugai Pharmaceut Orix Advantest Softbank Hokuriku Electric P<br />

-25.8 / 0.6 -30.4 / -4.1 -11.0 / -9.8 -97.3 / -25.9 -9.6 / -1.4 -32.8 / 2.6 -16.4 / -9.7 -44.7 / -4.5 -8.0 / 4.7 -14.3 / 4.0<br />

Korea GS Holdings Honam PetrochemicKumho Industrial LG Electronics CJ CheilJedang Yuhan Mirae Asset Securit LG Philips LCD KT Korea Gas<br />

-0.9 / -9.4 1.1 / 0.6 6.7 / -2.1 13.1 / -5.1 4.1 / 0.7 -3.4 / -1.8 1.0 / -7.9 8.4 / 2.1 -1.5 / 0.4 6.5 / -5.8<br />

SK Energy Samsung Fine ChemDoosan Kia Motors Amorepacific Corp. Hanmi Pharmaceuti Korean ReinsuranceHynix SemiconductoLG TeleCom Korea Electric Pow<br />

-15.8 / -11.8 -6.7 / -5.6 -16.0 / 0.0 -20.8 / -2.6 -3.2 / -5.3 -4.0 / 6.0 -9.5 / -6.5 -42.3 / -1.0 -6.8 / 0.4 -5.3 / -4.5<br />

Malaysia Petronas Dagangan Lafarge Malayan CeMalaysian Airline SyUMW Holdings Bhd Kuala Lumpur Kepo Multi-Purpose Holdi DiGi.com Bhd Petronas Gas Bhd<br />

0.0 / 1.2 0.3 / 0.9 7.3 / 1.8 0.2 / -0.7 2.8 / 3.9 26.4 / -2.3 0.1 / 2.1 1.9 / 0.0<br />

Scomi Group Bhd Malaysian Bulk Car Astro All Asia Netw Guinness Anchor Bh Bursa Malaysia Bhd Telekom Malaysia BYTL Corp. Bhd<br />

-1.2 / 2.3 -5.7 / 1.0 -16.5 / 3.6 -0.3 / 0.0 -6.9 / -2.3 -0.5 / 1.8 -1.9 / 1.9<br />

New Sky Network Televi Fisher & Paykel Hea Contact Energy<br />

Zealand 0.2 / -1.0 0.8 / -5.0 0.0 / -3.3<br />

Fletcher Building Auckland Internatio Fisher & Paykel App Telecom Corp. of N Vector<br />

-0.5 / -9.7 -0.7 / -2.2 -0.9 / -5.5 -3.8 / -3.2 -1.6 / 0.0<br />

Philippines Petron Ayala Land Philippine Long Dist First Philippine Hold<br />

1.2 / 0.0 0.5 / 1.9 0.2 / 0.3 5.9 / 1.0<br />

Jollibee Foods San Miguel Metropolitan Bank Globe Telecom PNOC Energy Deve<br />

-1.7 / 4.2 -5.9 / -0.9 -5.6 / -1.2 -0.5 / -1.9 -0.4 / 1.7<br />

Singapore Singapore Petroleum SembCorp Marine Genting Internation Olam International Parkway Holdings CapitaLand Singapore Telecomm<br />

0.3 / -4.9 1.5 / 5.5 2.4 / 2.5 0.0 / -1.5 1.3 / -1.7 2.6 / 3.2 0.4 / 5.7<br />

Singapore Airlines Jardine Cycle & Car Wilmar Internationa UOL Group Venture<br />

-6.5 / 0.4 -0.6 / 2.9 -1.2 / 1.7 -28.0 / 1.6 -0.8 / -2.7<br />

Thailand Banpu PTT Chemical Airports of Thailand BEC World CP ALL Thanachart Capital Hana Microelectron Ratchaburi Electric<br />

7.3 / 6.3 1.8 / 5.9 18.9 / -1.8 0.6 / 0.0 -0.1 / 0.9 3.1 / 9.9 0.4 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.6<br />

PTT Aromatics & ReSiam Cement Precious Shipping Siam Makro TMB Bank Advanced Info Servi Glow Energy<br />

-2.2 / 2.6 -8.4 / 0.9 -3.8 / 13.2 -0.3 / -0.5 -13.9 / 3.2 -2.1 / 13.2 0.1 / 0.8<br />

Taiwan Eternal Chemical Evergreen Marine CFar Eastern Departm Polaris Securities AU Optronics Far EasTone Teleco<br />

2.9 / -0.3 61.6 / 0.6 4.1 / 2.1 10.9 / -1.5 7.1 / -0.9 -0.5 / 1.4<br />

Taiwan Cement Walsin Lihwa Yulon Motor President Chain Sto Taishin Financial Ho Powerchip Semicon Taiwan Mobile<br />

-3.1 / 4.3 -12.2 / -3.2 -3.8 / 1.3 -0.1 / 4.1 -28.5 / -4.7 -147.3 / -4.2 -4.1 / 0.0<br />

Note : Above table is as of Feb. 13, 2008.<br />

Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 10


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Asia Pacific Country & Sector Rating for February<br />

Young Jean Hwang<br />

82-2-3774-1780 / YoungJean@miraeasset.com<br />

Table 1. Asia Pacific Country Rating for February<br />

Asia Pacific Country Rating by Median Z-score of 6 Criteria<br />

India<br />

13-Country Rank's Z-score<br />

30%<br />

40%<br />

-0.5 0<br />

Negative Neutral<br />

Indonesia<br />

China<br />

Hong Kong<br />

Singapore<br />

Thailand<br />

Philippines<br />

Korea<br />

Malaysia<br />

New Zealand<br />

Taiwan<br />

Japan<br />

Australia<br />

30%<br />

0.5<br />

Positive<br />

Positive<br />

Momentum 1 Momentum 2 Growth Profitability Valuation Liquidity<br />

(Breadth) (Magnitude)<br />

12m Fw. EPS Wtd. Avg. of Wtd. Avg. of Wtd. Avg. of Median Z-score of Money Supply Growth<br />

Monthly FY08 & FY09 EPS FY08 & FY09 EPS FY08 & FY09 12m Fw. P/E, P/B, less Target Policy Rate<br />

Revision Ratio Monthly Change Growth (YoY) ROE EV/EBITDA (Distance from<br />

(13 Countries Rank) (13 Countries Rank) (13 Countries Rank) (13 Countries Rank) (13 Countries Rank) Median since 2000)<br />

Positive Positive Positive Positive Negative Positive<br />

Z-score (1.00) 0.92 1.00 1.33 1.00 -4.41 3.66<br />

Positive<br />

Positive Neutral Neutral Positive Negative Positive<br />

Z-score (0.97) 1.91 -0.13 0.02 4.24 -1.00 2.27<br />

Positive<br />

Positive Positive Positive Positive Negative Negative<br />

Z-score (0.71) 0.78 1.91 1.39 0.63 -1.69 -0.60<br />

Positive<br />

Positive Positive Neutral Negative Negative Positive<br />

Z-score (0.65) 1.02 1.71 0.27 -2.97 -3.63 5.56<br />

Neutral<br />

Positive Neutral Negative Negative Positive Positive<br />

Z-score (0.29) 1.24 0.00 -1.86 -1.20 0.57 3.62<br />

Neutral<br />

Neutral Neutral Neutral Positive Positive Negative<br />

Z-score (0.03) 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.52 1.03 -2.71<br />

Neutral<br />

Neutral Neutral Neutral Negative Neutral Negative<br />

Z-score (-0.20) -0.15 0.35 0.32 -0.57 -0.26 -0.88<br />

Neutral<br />

Negative Negative Neutral Negative Positive Positive<br />

Z-score (-0.35) -1.00 -1.06 0.30 -1.28 1.84 1.02<br />

Neutral<br />

Neutral Positive Negative Negative Neutral Neutral<br />

Z-score (-0.35) 0.19 2.82 -3.58 -0.99 -0.28 -0.43<br />

Neutral<br />

Negative Neutral Negative Neutral Neutral Negative<br />

Z-score (-0.45) -1.16 -0.02 -2.39 0.00 0.00 -0.87<br />

Negative<br />

Negative Negative Neutral Neutral Positive Negative<br />

Z-score (-0.51) -0.90 -1.59 -0.12 0.01 1.00 -3.84<br />

Negative<br />

Negative Neutral Negative Negative Neutral Positive<br />

Z-score (-0.62) -1.01 -0.23 -1.03 -3.45 0.23 0.80<br />

Negative<br />

Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Negative Negative Negative Positive Negative Positive<br />

Z-score (-0.91) -1.03 -1.67 -1.00 1.00 -0.82 4.23<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 11


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Table 2. Asia Pacific ex. Japan Sector Rating for February<br />

Asia Pacific ex. Japan Sector Rating by Median Z-score of 5 Criteria<br />

30%<br />

21-Sector Rank's Z-score<br />

40%<br />

-0.5 0<br />

Negative Neutral<br />

30%<br />

0.5<br />

Positive<br />

Momentum 1 Momentum 2 Growth Profitability Valuation<br />

(Breadth) (Magnitude)<br />

12m Fw. EPS Wtd. Avg. of Wtd. Avg. of Wtd. Avg. of Median Z-score of<br />

Monthly FY08 & FY09 EPS FY08 & FY09 EPS FY08 & FY09 12m Fw. P/E, P/B,<br />

Revision Ratio Monthly Change Growth (YoY) ROE EV/EBITDA<br />

(21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank)<br />

Internet Software<br />

& Services Positive Positive Positive Positive Negative<br />

Z-score (3.39) 4.20 1.73 3.39 8.61 -7.12<br />

Household Durables<br />

Positive Positive Positive Positive Neutral<br />

Z-score (2.14) 2.38 2.14 5.23 0.63 0.29<br />

Electronic Equipment<br />

& Instruments Neutral Positive Positive Neutral Positive<br />

Z-score (1.15) -0.30 2.18 2.94 0.03 1.15<br />

Marine<br />

Automobiles<br />

Airlines<br />

Energy<br />

Machinery<br />

Pharmaceuticals<br />

Positive Positive Positive Neutral Positive<br />

Z-score (0.86) 1.00 0.86 0.86 0.41 1.00<br />

Positive Neutral Positive Negative Positive<br />

Z-score (0.71) 2.11 0.00 0.72 -3.03 0.71<br />

Negative Positive Positive Negative Positive<br />

Z-score (0.63) -2.01 0.86 1.89 -2.94 0.63<br />

Positive Positive Neutral Positive Negative<br />

Z-score (0.58) 1.97 1.44 0.49 0.58 -0.79<br />

Neutral<br />

Neutral Negative Positive Positive Neutral<br />

Z-score (0.43) -0.44 -1.39 2.62 4.18 0.43<br />

Neutral<br />

Positive Negative Neutral Neutral Negative<br />

Z-score (0.12) 1.16 -1.14 0.15 0.12 -1.94<br />

Construction<br />

& Engineering<br />

Neutral<br />

Neutral Neutral Positive Neutral Negative<br />

Z-score (0.08) 0.08 -0.07 1.19 0.15 -2.62<br />

Banks<br />

Positive<br />

Positive<br />

Positive<br />

Positive<br />

Positive<br />

Positive<br />

Positive<br />

Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Neutral<br />

Neutral Positive Neutral Negative Neutral<br />

Z-score (0.00) 0.00 1.00 0.00 -1.36 -0.14<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 12


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Table 2. Asia Pacific ex. Japan Sector Rating for February (Continued)<br />

Asia Pacific ex. Japan Sector Rating by Median Z-score of 5 Criteria<br />

30%<br />

21-Sector Rank's Z-score<br />

40%<br />

-0.5 0<br />

Negative Neutral<br />

Telecom. Services<br />

Chemicals<br />

Capital Markets<br />

Retailing<br />

Auto Components<br />

Metals & Mining<br />

Consumer Staples<br />

Utilities<br />

Insurance<br />

Semiconductors<br />

30%<br />

0.5<br />

Positive<br />

Momentum 1 Momentum 2 Growth Profitability Valuation<br />

(Breadth) (Magnitude)<br />

12m Fw. EPS Wtd. Avg. of Wtd. Avg. of Wtd. Avg. of Median Z-score of<br />

Monthly FY08 & FY09 EPS FY08 & FY09 EPS FY08 & FY09 12m Fw. P/E, P/B,<br />

Revision Ratio Monthly Change Growth (YoY) ROE EV/EBITDA<br />

(21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank)<br />

Neutral<br />

Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Negative<br />

Z-score (-0.05) -0.25 0.13 -0.05 0.00 -1.43<br />

Neutral<br />

Positive Neutral Negative Negative Neutral<br />

Z-score (-0.13) 0.89 -0.13 -1.00 -1.44 0.01<br />

Neutral<br />

Neutral Neutral Negative Negative Neutral<br />

Z-score (-0.21) -0.21 0.12 -1.44 -1.14 0.37<br />

Neutral<br />

Positive Neutral Neutral Neutral Negative<br />

Z-score (-0.33) 1.53 -0.35 -0.33 0.33 -2.39<br />

Neutral<br />

Negative Neutral Neutral Negative Positive<br />

Z-score (-0.44) -1.44 -0.33 -0.44 -0.70 0.57<br />

Negative<br />

Negative Negative Negative Positive Neutral<br />

Z-score (-0.87) -2.03 -2.73 -0.87 2.39 0.13<br />

Negative<br />

Positive Positive Negative Negative Negative<br />

Z-score (-0.87) 0.61 1.77 -1.46 -0.87 -2.08<br />

Negative<br />

Neutral Neutral Negative Negative Negative<br />

Z-score (-0.97) -0.25 -0.31 -1.56 -4.19 -0.97<br />

Negative<br />

Neutral Negative Negative Negative Negative<br />

Z-score (-1.27) -0.37 -2.11 -1.92 -1.00 -1.27<br />

Negative<br />

Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Negative Negative Neutral Negative Positive<br />

Z-score (-1.68) -3.77 -2.04 -0.41 -1.68 0.51<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 13


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Weekly</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Pharmaceutical<br />

Key Call<br />

CSL LTD<br />

(CSL AU,BUY,TP A$42.04)<br />

Sean Hwang<br />

82-2-3774-1723 / shwang@miraeasset.com<br />

New Era for Plasma Industry<br />

New leader in newer healthcare marketplace<br />

We initiate coverage on CSL Ltd. with a BUY rating and<br />

fair value of AU$42.04, which is derived from our RIM<br />

model under the assumption of 9% cost of equity.<br />

Although this valuation appears demanding at 30.3x FY08<br />

earnings, P/E is likely to fall as low as 17.0x to FY10.<br />

CSL has established a leading position in the plasma<br />

proteins market on the back of cutting-edge fractionation<br />

technology and collecting power. Now the company is<br />

expanding its presence into the biopharmaceutical market<br />

led by its flagship product Guardasil, the cervical cancer<br />

vaccine that was licensed to Merck.<br />

Supply of plasma proteins to be tightened<br />

The global plasma product market is a competitive<br />

oligopoly, led by a few players such as CSL, Baxter, and<br />

Tarcelo. Capital-intensive fractionating facilities and<br />

difficulties in blood collection have existed as barriers to<br />

new entrants into this market. The leading companies are<br />

expected to benefit from a tight supply/demand balance<br />

for plasma proteins as a result of recent M&As in the<br />

industry.<br />

In addition, global short supply in blood can prompt further<br />

price hikes of plasma proteins and make the market share<br />

more concentrated in the companies that are vertically<br />

integrated. The company collected 4mn liters of plasma<br />

through its collection centers worldwide and obtained an<br />

additional 700,000 liters that were for sale to Talecris (5%<br />

margin). After expiration of the supply agreement at the<br />

end of 2008, CSL can internally process the plasma,<br />

formally sold to Talecris, and sell it for a greater margin<br />

(roughly 30%). In summary, the current blood shortage<br />

expands the gap between vertically integrated players<br />

such as CSL and Grifols and non-vertically integrated<br />

players such as Talecris. Liquid IVIG’s indication<br />

extension to Alzheimer (now performed by Baxter) could<br />

be an important catalyst.<br />

Expansion to biopharmaceutical encouraging<br />

CSL is the only manufacturer of influenza vaccine in the<br />

southern hemisphere and the inventor of world’s 1st<br />

cervical cancer vaccine, Guardasil. Royalty income from<br />

Merck will be the strongest contributing factor to earnings<br />

growth over the next couple of years. Expanding to<br />

various recombinant biopharmaceuticals is likely to send<br />

CSL to a new leadership position in the global<br />

pharmaceutical market.<br />

Figure 1. Residual Income Model<br />

(A$ mn) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017<br />

BVo 2,268.8<br />

BV 3,025.93,784.04,737.95,942.67,444.89,288.9 11,560.914,446.6 17,571.3<br />

ROE(%) 25.1 25.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.9 28.4<br />

COE(%) 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0<br />

ROE-<br />

COE<br />

16.1 16.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 19.7 19.2 18.9 19.4<br />

RI 488.6 611.0 919.41,162.81,472.91,826.7 2,221.6 2,736.8 3,412.4<br />

PV RI 448.3 514.3 709.9 823.8 957.31,089.2 1,215.3 1,373.5 1,571.1 12,056.6<br />

NAV<br />

Shr<br />

23,028.1<br />

Outstand<br />

ing<br />

547.7<br />

Fair price 42.04<br />

Source: Mirae Asset Research Estimates<br />

Figure 2. Global IVIG Market<br />

(tonnes of IVIg)<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 14<br />

140<br />

120<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

0<br />

Projection<br />

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16<br />

Source: NBA, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Figure 3. Financial and Operational figures<br />

(A$ mn) 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E<br />

Sales 2,749.9 2,848.9 3,172.4 3,688.7 4,444.7<br />

EBITDA 410.5 155.3 678.2 1,002.1 1,433.1<br />

Pre-tax NP 641.9 170.5 774.1 1,071.8 1,513.8<br />

NP 546.5 117.4 539.3 760.9 1,074.8<br />

EPS 0.93 0.21 0.98 1.39 1.96<br />

YoY(%) 126.2 (76.9) 358.2 41.1 41.2<br />

P/E(x) 12.1 83.4 29.8 25.2 17.9<br />

P/B(x) 3.1 4.9 7.1 6.3 5.1<br />

EV/EBITDA 7.8 30.7 17.5 15.0 11.0<br />

ROE(%) 26.3 5.9 23.8 25.1 28.4<br />

Source: Factset, Mirae Asset Research Estimates


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Figure 4. Global Comparison<br />

CSL Grifols Novo Baxter GSK Sanofi- Green<br />

Nordisk<br />

Aventis Cross<br />

CSL-AU GRF-ES<br />

NOVO.B-<br />

DK<br />

BAX-US GSK-GB SAN-FR 006280-KR<br />

Avg Median 06/2007 12/2006 12/2006 12/2006 12/2006 12/2006 12/2006<br />

Price History<br />

Current Price 46.40 45.68 29.50 23.41 63.99 61.86 21.67 77.99 79.30<br />

52 Week High 54.08 50.07 34.93 26.97 68.75 65.20 30.37 98.29 110.71<br />

52 Week Low 35.85 30.43 18.17 13.95 40.82 48.10 20.05 74.00 52.31<br />

Beta 0.76 0.74 0.92 0.99 0.71 0.57 0.62 0.76 0.72<br />

Size<br />

Market Value(US$ mn) 54,355.6 39,484.2 16,232.5 4,986.8 39,744.6 39,223.7 119,413.9 106,531.8 714.6<br />

Enterprise Value 57,634.4 39,170.7 16,680.2 5,402.4 38,567.7 39,773.7 131,062.8 114,319.4 796.0<br />

Sales 17,277.3 8,615.8 2,695.3 855.4 6,853.6 10,378.0 45,450.2 37,431.4 437.5<br />

Assets 28,290.5 10,659.0 3,440.1 1,150.7 7,568.0 13,750.0 45,851.3 97,982.8 391.7<br />

Valuation<br />

LTM Price to Earnings 24.7 24.0 33.5 40.6 24.4 23.7 11.7 14.2 18.7<br />

LTM EPS 3.69 1.80 0.98 0.40 13.45 2.61 0.94 3.76 4,008.00<br />

FY1 Price to Earnings 21.3 21.0 26.7 38.2 22.5 19.5 11.2 9.7 -<br />

FY1 EPS 2.96 2.39 1.10 0.61 2.85 3.18 1.93 8.06 -<br />

FY2 Price to Earnings 17.3 18.7 20.7 26.3 20.2 17.2 10.6 9.0 -<br />

FY2 EPS 3.30 2.61 1.43 0.89 3.17 3.60 2.05 8.66 -<br />

NTM Price to Earnings 18.2 20.6 22.3 25.0 22.1 19.0 11.1 9.6 -<br />

NTM EPS 3.09 2.42 1.32 0.94 2.90 3.25 1.95 8.16 -<br />

Price to Book 6.3 6.5 8.0 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.3 1.6 3.6<br />

Enterprise to Sales 4.3 4.1 5.9 5.8 4.7 3.5 2.9 2.8 1.9<br />

Dividend Yield 1.9 1.1 1.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 4.6 3.3 1.0<br />

Gross Margin 56.2 52.7 45.2 33.6 74.5 46.6 78.4 58.9 40.0<br />

EBITDA Margin 28.8 29.7 30.0 15.6 29.5 23.6 39.0 35.3 15.3<br />

Operating Profit Margin 21.0 20.0 21.4 15.2 23.3 18.6 32.3 15.2 13.5<br />

Net Margin 15.2 15.4 17.0 7.0 16.7 13.5 23.2 14.1 8.6<br />

Net Return on Assets 12.0 11.7 13.3 5.2 15.1 10.2 23.0 5.4 9.6<br />

Net Return on Equity 24.3 21.8 23.8 12.3 21.4 22.3 57.4 8.8 19.0<br />

Growth (Yr/Yr)<br />

Sales Growth + 22.9 + 24.7 + 27.3 + 38.2 + 28.2 + 5.4 + 22.1 + 15.9 + 19.2<br />

Gross Profit Growth + 26.8 + 26.1 + 43.2 + 29.4 + 32.4 + 13.2 + 22.8 + 19.6 + 34.5<br />

Assets Growth + 12.7 + 15.4 + 15.8 + 23.0 + 16.3 + 15.1 + 6.8 - 0.8 + 33.9<br />

Source: Factset, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 15


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Metal & Mining<br />

Initiation<br />

Shougang Concord Int’l<br />

(697 HK,BUY,TP HK$ 3.50)<br />

EY Lee<br />

852-2295-2529 / dooley@miraeasset.com<br />

Major Beneficiary of Demand Growth<br />

Initiate coverage with BUY rating and TP of HK$3.50<br />

Our investment points for Shougang Concord Int’l are: 1)<br />

significant top-line and bottom-line growth expected<br />

following full-scale operation of new shipbuilding plate<br />

works in 2007; 2) bright outlook for its steel manufacturing,<br />

shipping, and electricity generation business; and 3) its<br />

share price being undervalued after a recent sharp decline.<br />

Our TP is equivalent to P/E of 12x to FY08 forecast EPS,<br />

which is a 35% discount to the Hang Seng Index average<br />

P/E. The discount was due to concerns over the possibility<br />

of an additional rights issue.<br />

Timely facility expansion to fuel earnings growth<br />

In 2007, the company began operation of a newly<br />

constructed slab plant (annual capacity of 2.6mn tons)<br />

including two blast furnaces and a heavy plate plant<br />

(annual capacity of 1.2mn tons) at Qinghuangdao Shouqin<br />

(SQ). As such, we project FY07 sales to be up 97% YoY<br />

and OP to be up 468.7% YoY. We also forecast sales and<br />

EPS to expand at CAGR of 9% and 20.3%, respectively,<br />

during 2007-10 on the back of Shouqin’s expected<br />

increase in slab production capacity to 3mn tons p.a. and<br />

heavy plate to 2mn tons p.a. through 2011.<br />

Impressive strategy to secure iron ore mine<br />

The company secured a 6.4% stake in Australian mine<br />

explorer Australasian Resources Ltd. (ARH AU) for<br />

AU$28mn in 2007. In February, the company also<br />

acquired a 19.7% stake in Australian iron ore miner Mount<br />

Gibson Iron Ltd. including a 10% option share. Such<br />

investment in upstream process is expected to sustain the<br />

company’s lofty profitability over the long haul.<br />

Undemanding valuation to provide a bargain hunting<br />

opportunity<br />

The company’s share price recently plummeted due to<br />

concerns over a rights issue in 2H07 and overall stock<br />

market weakness despite its strong FY07 ROE forecast at a<br />

hefty 37.8%. As such, P/E and EV/EBITDA have plunged to<br />

6.2x and 6.0x, respectively. Accordingly, our TP presents a<br />

83.3% upside from the current price.<br />

Full-scale heavy plate facility on-line in April 2007<br />

In 2004, SQ set up a two-phased investment plan to build a<br />

slab facility with two blast furnaces and an integrated steel<br />

mill with a heavy plate rolling line. It launched operations of<br />

a slab facility according to the first phase plan and began<br />

the trial operations of 4,300mm-wide heavy plate facility in<br />

September 2006 for the second phase. Both facilities began<br />

operations in April 2007 and production capacity for slab is<br />

now 2.6mn p.a. and for plate is 1.2mn p.a.<br />

Figure 1. Shougang Concord International: TP HK$3.50<br />

Construction<br />

Production<br />

capacity<br />

(1,000 tons)<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 16<br />

Product<br />

spec<br />

Note<br />

QZP 1993 800 plate 3000mm Procure slab from SQ<br />

SQ 2004 2600 slab<br />

Integrated steel mill with<br />

two blast furnaces<br />

1200 Plate 4300mm<br />

Completed two-phased<br />

investment, began<br />

operations in April 2007<br />

Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

Only listed player in the China’s Shougang Group<br />

As the largest shareholder, Shougang Holdings owns a<br />

40.2% stake in Shougang Concord Int’l. Shougang<br />

Holdings’ largest shareholder is Shougang Corp., whose<br />

largest shareholder is the City of Beijing. Shougang<br />

Concord Int’l is the only listed company among Shougang<br />

group companies. Listed on Hong Kong stock market in<br />

1991, the company specializes in making heavy plate<br />

products.


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Figure 2. Shareholding Structure (as of Feb 2008)<br />

JP<br />

Morgan Chase,<br />

2.79%<br />

Public &<br />

Institution,<br />

37.57%<br />

Baring<br />

Asset,<br />

4.97%<br />

Cheung Carlo<br />

Kong Tassara,<br />

HLDGS,<br />

6.43%<br />

8.04%<br />

Shougang<br />

Holding,<br />

40.20%<br />

Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

Figure 3. Operation Margin by Business Segment<br />

(%)<br />

60<br />

50<br />

40<br />

30<br />

20<br />

10<br />

0<br />

2006년<br />

1H07<br />

Steel Shipping Electricity Steel Trade<br />

Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

Figure 4. Sales Contribution by Segment<br />

Electricity, 4.2<br />

Shipping, 2.6<br />

Steel Trade,<br />

14.4<br />

Others, 0.9<br />

Steel<br />

Manufacture,<br />

77.9<br />

Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

Figure 5. OP Contribution by Segment<br />

Shipping, 11.5<br />

Steel<br />

Manufacture,<br />

80.7<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 17<br />

Electricity,<br />

6.1<br />

Steel<br />

Trade,<br />

0.6<br />

Others,<br />

1.1<br />

Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

Figure 6. Shougang’s Sales and OP Forecast<br />

(mn HK$)<br />

18,000<br />

16,000<br />

14,000<br />

12,000<br />

10,000<br />

8,000<br />

6,000<br />

4,000<br />

2,000<br />

0<br />

Operating income<br />

Revenue<br />

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E<br />

Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

(mn HK$)<br />

3,500<br />

3,000<br />

2,500<br />

2,000<br />

1,500<br />

1,000<br />

Figure 7. Shougang Concord International: TP HK$3.50<br />

Fiscal year Ended Dec. 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E<br />

Sales (HK$ mn) 4,570. 6,467. 12,745. 15,879. 15,970.<br />

OP (HK$ mn)<br />

0<br />

208.6<br />

5<br />

420.9<br />

8<br />

1,664.4<br />

6<br />

2,161.7<br />

0<br />

2,386.0<br />

EBITDA (HK$ mn) 287.7 679.7 2,139.0 2,745.5 2,993.4<br />

Net Profit (HK$ mn) 305.0 221.6 1,515.9 2,045.9 2,283.9<br />

EPS (HK$) 0.07 0.04 0.23 0.29 0.33<br />

P/E (x) 7.6 11.4 7.8 6.2 5.5<br />

P/B (x) 1.3 1.1 3.0 2.1 1.6<br />

EV/EBITDA (x) 18.0 10.1 8.0 6.0 5.0<br />

Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

500<br />

0


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Construction & Property<br />

Industry Update<br />

Chongqing - Glittering in Western China<br />

Kaiser Choi<br />

852-2295-2533 / kaiser.choi@miraeasset.com<br />

Highlighted Company<br />

Company Rating Current Price (Feb 13) Target Price<br />

C C Land (1224.HK) Not Rated HK$9.88 –<br />

Chongqing is a pilot reform city in western China<br />

It is on China’s top agenda to accelerate the economic<br />

development in western China following the country’s<br />

success in wealth creation along its coastal regions. As<br />

one of the most important cities in the west, Chongqing<br />

has been selected as a “Trial Zone for Comprehensive<br />

Reform” by the State Council with the aim to achieve<br />

“coordinated rural and urban development.” Under China’s<br />

planned economy, Chongqing will become the regional<br />

economic center in western China. We expect that the city<br />

will receive greater budget from the central government to<br />

speed up the development of infrastructure and urbanrural<br />

integration. More autonomy would also be given to<br />

the local governments to carry out policies on land, credit<br />

and preferential tax treatment.<br />

Figure 1. GDP Growth Outpaced National Average<br />

%<br />

13.0<br />

12.0<br />

11.0<br />

10.0<br />

9.0<br />

8.0<br />

7.0<br />

GDP YoY Growth<br />

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006<br />

Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Research<br />

China Chongqing<br />

Home price catching up with income growth<br />

We believe property markets in Chongqing remain healthy.<br />

Although home price growth in the city has accelerated in<br />

recent years, the increase has actually been supported by<br />

solid income growth. Over the past decade, home prices<br />

in Chongqing increased by 133%, in line with the 130%<br />

growth in urban annual disposable income per capita. The<br />

accelerating home prices have only caught up with income<br />

growth, as illustrated in Figure 2.<br />

Figure 2. No Bubble in Home Prices<br />

Income vs Home Price in Chongqing<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 18<br />

RMB<br />

13,500<br />

12,500<br />

11,500<br />

10,500<br />

9,500<br />

8,500<br />

7,500<br />

6,500<br />

5,500<br />

4,500<br />

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br />

RMB/m 2<br />

2,900<br />

2,700<br />

2,500<br />

2,300<br />

2,100<br />

1,900<br />

1,700<br />

1,500<br />

1,300<br />

1,100<br />

Urban Annual Disposable Income Per Capita (LHS) Residential Selling Price (RHS)<br />

Source: CEIC, Statistical Information of Chongqing, Mirae Asset Research<br />

Favorable supply-demand situation<br />

Home supply had been in line with demand in Chongqing<br />

until 2005 when the purchasing power of local residents<br />

began to flow into the market and demand started to<br />

outstrip supply, as illustrated in Figure 3. We estimate that<br />

cumulative demand-supply gap should have widened to<br />

about 11mn m 2 . With a total population of 28mn,<br />

Chongqing’s urbanization rate was 48.3% in 2007. The<br />

government plans to boost the rate to 52% by 2010 and to<br />

80% by 2020, which should result in higher demand for<br />

urban residential properties. Besides, local residents and<br />

end-users still dominate the market (accounts for 91% of<br />

total buyers). As Chongqing has been designated to<br />

become the economic growth engine in western China, we<br />

anticipate both real demand and investment demand will<br />

continue to increase in the next few years, lending support<br />

to further price growth.<br />

Figure 3. Demand Outstrips Supply from 2005<br />

'000m 2<br />

35,000<br />

30,000<br />

25,000<br />

20,000<br />

15,000<br />

10,000<br />

5,000<br />

0<br />

Residential Supply vs Demand in Chongqing<br />

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br />

Residential Supply Residential demand<br />

Source: CEIC, Statistical Information of Chongqing, Mirae Asset Research<br />

C C Land has heavy exposure in western China<br />

Amongst major mainland developers, C C Land (1224.HK)<br />

has the heaviest exposure in western China. Virtually all of<br />

its land reserves are located in the west, of which 65% lie<br />

in Chongqing. Future prospects for the company are bright<br />

in our view.<br />

900


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Shipping<br />

Industry Update<br />

NOL<br />

(NOL.SP,BUY,TP SG$4.47)<br />

Je Hyun Ryu<br />

82-2-3774-1418 / jayryu@miraeasset.com<br />

Stronger than Expected US Routes<br />

NOL: FY07 earnings beat consensus estimates<br />

NOL recorded FY07 revenue of US$8.2bn, in line with our<br />

estimates, but OP of US$613mn exceeded our estimates<br />

by 11.2%. The company’s revenue and OP also beat<br />

consensus estimates by 2.2% and 23.8%, respectively.<br />

We maintain our BUY rating and TP of SG$4.47.<br />

Higher volume and freight rate<br />

NOL’s FY07 freight volume and rate rose by 12.5% YoY<br />

and 4.1% YoY, respectively. In particular, freight rate in US<br />

routes only declined 1.5% YoY in 4Q07, while freight rate<br />

for Europe and Asia routes increased by 25.2% YoY and<br />

23.2% YoY, respectively, for the same period. Meanwhile,<br />

4Q07 freight volume in US routes increased 23.4% YoY<br />

and 19.7% QoQ.<br />

Increasing backhaul volume from US exports<br />

We believe strength in US routes is being fueled by<br />

increasing backhaul volume from US exports. According to<br />

the company, for every 10 FEUs in US routes that are full<br />

headhaul, 6 FEUs are estimated to have been full<br />

backhaul in FY07. This is a huge improvement from FY06<br />

when the backhaul volume in US routes was only 5 FEUs<br />

for every 10 FEUs headhaul. This improvement in the<br />

backhaul volume was due to increasing demand for US<br />

exports as a result of weak dollar.<br />

Focus on better-than-expected US routes<br />

NOL’s strong earnings improvement is due to growth in<br />

container volume in Europe and Asia, and better-thanexpected<br />

performance in US routes. NOL announced that<br />

it will reduce supply to 50,000 TEU/week in 1Q08.<br />

Effective supply control should tighten supply/demand<br />

balance relative to sluggishness in the demand for US<br />

routes.<br />

Figure 1. FY07 Earnings Review<br />

(US$mn, %) 2007E 2007P<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 19<br />

Diff<br />

(%,%p)<br />

2006 (YoY) Consensus<br />

Diff<br />

(%,%p)<br />

Revenue 8,161.9 8,160.0 (0.0) 7,263.5 12.3 7,982.1 2.2<br />

OP 551.4 613 11.2 401.0 52.9 495.1 23.8<br />

Pre-tax profit 563.1 585.9 4.0 272.8 114.7 508.7 15.2<br />

NP 496.0 523.0 5.4 363.7 43.8 451.7 15.8<br />

OP margin 6.8 7.5 0.8 5.5 2.0 6.2 1.3<br />

Pre-tax<br />

margin<br />

6.9 7.2 0.3 3.8 3.4 6.4 0.8<br />

Net margin 6.1 6.4 0.3 5.0 1.4 5.7 0.8<br />

Source: NOL, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

Figure 2. Operating Data for Container Lines<br />

2005 2006 2007P 2008E 2009E<br />

Freight volume (1,000 FEU) 1,946.0 2,097.0 2,358.0 2,452.2 2,625.0<br />

Asia-Europe Trade 383.0 414.0 428.0 459.2 505.6<br />

Transatlantic Trade 122.0 120.0 132.0 141.8 148.8<br />

Transpacific Trade 710.0 730.0 832.0 818.4 890.3<br />

Latin America Trade 139.0 165.0 182.0 202.2 208.2<br />

Asia/Australia/Middle East 592.0 668.0 784.0 830.6 872.1<br />

Freight rate (US$/FEU) 2,841 2,632 2,740 2,873 2,951<br />

Total Europe 2,664 2,497 2,848 2,820 2,872<br />

Total US 3,539 3,416 3,347 3,729 3,790<br />

Asia/Australia/Middle East 1,991 1,689 1,877 1,860 1,953<br />

Source: NOL, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

Figure 3. Container Volume Results<br />

4Q07P 3Q07<br />

QoQ<br />

(%,%p)<br />

4Q06<br />

YoY<br />

(%,%p)<br />

Freight volume (1,000 FEU) 670 564 18.8 580 15.5<br />

Asia-Europe Trade 117 98 19.4 113 3.5<br />

Transatlantic Trade 38 32 18.8 32 18.8<br />

Transpacific Trade 243 203 19.7 197 23.4<br />

Latin America Trade 55 44 25.0 45 22.2<br />

Asia/Australia/Middle East 217 187 16.0 193 12.4<br />

Freight rate (US$/FEU) 2,865 2,885 (0.7) 2,583 10.9<br />

Total Europe 3,161 2,978 6.1 2,524 25.2<br />

Total US 3,312 3,462 (4.3) 3,362 (1.5)<br />

Asia/Australia/Middle East 2,041 2,060 (0.9) 1,657 23.2<br />

Source: NOL, Mirae Asset Research estimates


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Auto Parts<br />

Industry Update<br />

Strong Potential in Key Emerging Markets<br />

Jaewoo Kim<br />

82-2-3774-2193 / jwkim21@miraeasset.com<br />

Our View on Highlighted Companies<br />

Company Rating<br />

Current Price<br />

Target Price<br />

(Feb 13)<br />

S&T Daewoo (064960.KS) BUY W27,400 W65,000<br />

Dongyang Mech. (013570.KS) BUY W5,610 W16,000<br />

Global automakers responding to demand for low-end<br />

cars are likely to see qualified Korean auto parts makers<br />

benefit from this industry trend.<br />

At the moment, global automakers are categorized into<br />

two groups: 1) fast growing automakers based in Asia;<br />

and 2) slow-growing automakers in North America and<br />

Europe. Facing different circumstances, each group has<br />

different strategies and goals. However, both groups share<br />

a common need for auto parts makers that are competitive<br />

in price and high in quality.<br />

Securing auto parts makers to meet continued production<br />

capacity expansion is vital for fast-growing automakers. To<br />

do so, they are likely to seek new auto parts makers with<br />

quality and price competitiveness, while encouraging<br />

existing auto parts makers to expand investment.<br />

For slow-growing automakers, cost structure improvement<br />

is key. These companies are also likely to want auto parts<br />

makers with strong price competitiveness and good quality<br />

products.<br />

If automakers are focused more on competitive pricing<br />

than on quality, they are likely to contract with China auto<br />

parts makers. However, if automakers want both quality<br />

and price competitiveness, they are likely to turn to<br />

qualified auto parts makers in Korea.<br />

Recently, GM steadily increased orders to domestic auto<br />

parts makers including S&T Daewoo and Dongyang<br />

Mechatronics. As such, global automakers are very likely<br />

to pay more attention to Korean auto parts makers as they<br />

seek new growth engines in key emerging markets with<br />

improved price competitiveness.<br />

Therefore, we recommend investors to keep close eyes on<br />

S&T Daewoo and Dongyang Mechatronics which have<br />

already secured strong potential to expand supplies to<br />

global auto manufacturers and are expected to see<br />

positive earnings performance in the mid- to long-term<br />

perspective.<br />

Figure 1. Global Automakers Interested in<br />

Outstanding Domestic Auto Parts Makers<br />

Fast growing group<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 20<br />

Japan<br />

Japan<br />

South South Korea Korea<br />

China<br />

China<br />

Slow growing group<br />

Germany Germany<br />

USA<br />

USA<br />

Other Other Europe Europe<br />

• Active expanding<br />

capacity<br />

• Nurturing new auto<br />

parts makers<br />

Increasingly<br />

necessary<br />

• Continued efforts for<br />

restructuring<br />

• Further cost saving<br />

increasingly<br />

necessary<br />

Source: WardsAuto, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

• Auto parts makers<br />

with quality and<br />

price<br />

competitiveness<br />

capture increasing<br />

attention<br />

• Competitiveness of<br />

domestic auto parts<br />

makers underlined<br />

• Competitive<br />

domestic auto parts<br />

makers forecast to<br />

generate overseas<br />

sales<br />

Figure 2. Japanese Auto Parts Stocks Sharply Rise<br />

on Expansion of Overseas Sales<br />

120<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

P/E gap between automakers and auto parts makers (RHS)<br />

Japanese major automakers’ avg P/E (LHS)<br />

Japanese major auto parts makers’ avg. P/E (LHS)<br />

Toyota- GM joint venture in<br />

the U.S., New United Motor<br />

Manufacturing, Inc.<br />

(NUMMI), started<br />

production, 1984<br />

Toyota Motor<br />

Manufacturing, Kentucky,<br />

Inc. started production,<br />

1988<br />

60.0<br />

40.0<br />

20.0<br />

(20.0)<br />

(40.0)<br />

0<br />

(60.0)<br />

1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006<br />

Source: Factset, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

Figure 3. Korea Auto Parts Manufacturers More<br />

Competitive than China Peers (Japan=100)<br />

Materials Labor<br />

Inventory<br />

management<br />

Transportation<br />

Facility<br />

expansion<br />

Korea 88.3 77 86.2 83.1 80.7<br />

China 81.8 45.9 75 76.4 68.4<br />

R&D labor R&D facility Other R&D Others Total<br />

Korea 74.6 73.7 75.1 80 84.2<br />

China 52.9 58.5 57.3 64.8 72<br />

Source: KIET, K<strong>AP</strong> Korea, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

0.0


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Consumer<br />

Industry Update<br />

China’s Consumer Sector<br />

Anita Hwang<br />

852-2295-2523 / anita.hwang@miraeasset.com<br />

Did the snowstorm freeze Chinese consumers?<br />

The unexpectedly cold weather and snowstorm in China<br />

over the past month has triggered many concerns on<br />

escalating consumer prices and reduced consumption<br />

demand. While we believed the temporary shock from<br />

reduced supply would drive up prices, we were not in the<br />

view that consumption demand would be significantly<br />

affected. The most heavily-hit snowstorm areas were in<br />

the rural and second- to third-tier cities in Central and<br />

Southern provinces. These regions are neither key<br />

revenue-generating areas for retailers nor manufacturing<br />

hubs for apparel and footwear. Unless the snowstorm and<br />

cold weather persist for much longer, we expect material<br />

negative impact to be contained to the agricultural players.<br />

The retail statistics from first-tier cities like Shanghai and<br />

Beijing during the Spring Festival holiday confirmed that<br />

consumption has not dwindled during the cold weather.<br />

Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce reported that sales<br />

of 36 department stores in Beijing on the past Sunday<br />

increased 29.6% YoY. According to statistics from the<br />

Beijing Commercial Information and Consultation Center,<br />

sales revenue generated from a sample of 2,901 stores in<br />

Beijing recorded double-digit growth in line with<br />

expectations.<br />

Figure 1. Beijing’s Retail Sales during New Year’s<br />

Category Y-o-Y Growth (%)<br />

Department stores / shopping malls 23.4<br />

Supermarkets 21.0<br />

Catering Services 13.2<br />

Specialty Stores 12.4<br />

Source: Beijing Commercial Information and Consultation Center<br />

According to samples drawn by the Shanghai Economic<br />

Committee during the seven day Spring Festival holiday<br />

from 361 large- to-mid retailers in Shanghai, total retail<br />

sales were RMB4.2bn or an increase of 20.5% YoY. Part<br />

of the increase was attributed to the increased spending<br />

from staying in town during the adverse weather. Overall,<br />

the retail sales of consumer goods in China during the<br />

Spring Festival holiday rose 16.0% YoY to RMB255bn<br />

(15% YoY growth in 2007, 14.5% YoY growth in 2006).<br />

A reality check of hypermarkets in Shanghai<br />

Research on “Large-scale Retailers in Shanghai in 2007”<br />

conducted by Shanghai Business School revealed a<br />

slowdown in expansion of hypermarkets in Shanghai. New<br />

store opening reduced as a result of intense competition<br />

and escalating rental costs.<br />

Figure 2. Slowed Expansion of Hypermarkets in<br />

Shanghai during 2007<br />

2007 2006<br />

New Store Opening 14 20<br />

Closure 1 2<br />

Total 145 132<br />

YoY growth in store number 9.8% 15.2%<br />

The level of competition is reflected in the fact that 69 of<br />

the 145 hypermarkets in Shanghai have at least one<br />

competitor within a 1 km radius. Some stores have as<br />

many as 4 competitors within a 1 km radius. 133 of the<br />

145 hypermarkets have at least one competitor within a 3<br />

km radius. Some stores have as many as 16 competitors<br />

within a 3 km radius.<br />

We reiterate our previous view that China’s hypermarket<br />

competitive environment is highly intense as a result of<br />

rapid expansion. Growth rate is expected to slow<br />

particularly in first-tier cities while profit margin is expected<br />

to narrow. Market consolidation is expected to continue as<br />

small players struggle to survive. We believe the<br />

hypermarket is likely to become an oligopolistic market<br />

dominated by national foreign players and a few regional<br />

leaders.<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 21


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Banking<br />

Industry Update<br />

M&A Rumor & Asset Quality Worries<br />

Patrick Pong<br />

852-2295-2516 / patrick.pong@miraeasset.com<br />

Highlighted Companies<br />

Company Rating Current Price (Feb 14) Target Price<br />

CCB (939.HK) Not Rated HK$5.83 -<br />

HK’s Wing Lung Bank is speculated to be for sale<br />

According to Ming Pao Daily, a large-scale Chinese bank<br />

has interests to acquire Wing Lung Bank (WLB), which is<br />

62.56%-owned by the Wu family. WLB, a medium-sized,<br />

locally incorporated commercial bank, with market cap of<br />

HK$22bn, denied there are negotiations or agreements.<br />

Asking price is equivalent to 3x book value<br />

Asking price is reportedly to be as high as 3x book value<br />

(or 21x FY06 earnings), valuing WLB at HK$34bn. This<br />

valuation looks expensive as transactions of mediumsized<br />

banks in HK usually fall within a range of 1.2x-2.5x<br />

book value. The most expensive M&A was back in 2001<br />

when DBS bought Dao Heng Bank for 3.4x book value.<br />

The most recent M&A was in 2006 when JCG Holdings<br />

acquired Asia Commercial Bank for 2.4x book value.<br />

Figure 1. Chinese Banks’ Exposure in HK<br />

BOC(HK) CCB(Asia) ICBC(Asia) WLB<br />

Branches HK 280 20 41 33<br />

Macau 0 4 0 0<br />

Others 12 0 0 3<br />

Profit(2006) HK$mn 14,007 616 1,246 1,606<br />

Asset(2006) HK$mn 928,953 36,894 146,392 84,981<br />

Equity(2006) HK$mn 86,640 8,024 11,085 11,382<br />

Shareholder<br />

BOC<br />

65.7%<br />

CCB<br />

100%<br />

ICBC<br />

71.21%<br />

Wu<br />

family<br />

62.56%<br />

Source: Company<br />

Who’s the buyer?<br />

BOC looks unlikely as BOC(HK) is already one of the<br />

largest players in HK and an acquisition of WLB is unlikely<br />

to bring in much synergetic benefit. Although ICBC is<br />

expanding overseas, emerging markets are at the top of<br />

its agenda. It recently acquired 79.9% of Macau’s Seng<br />

Heng Bank for HK$4.5bn and 20% enlarged capital of<br />

South African Standard Bank for HK$42.31bn. An<br />

acquisition in a mature market like HK looks inconsistent<br />

with the bank’s M&A objective.<br />

Could be CCB given its Asia expansion strategy<br />

CCB’s exposure in HK and overseas markets is relatively<br />

small compared to other Chinese banks. A major<br />

breakthrough was in December 2006 when CCB acquired<br />

Bank of America(Asia) in HK for HK$9.7bn or 1.3x book<br />

value. It has now adopted the name CCB(Asia). This has<br />

only raised overseas earnings contribution to 1.9% in<br />

1H07, in contrast to 0.8% in FY06. CCB’s chairman<br />

indicated that the priority of overseas development<br />

strategy is to strengthen Asian business, particularly in HK.<br />

Recently, the bank spent HK$1.8bn to acquire a 50%<br />

interest in a HK office building which is to be constructed<br />

by 2011. Moreover, the bank’s branch network expanded<br />

from 14 in 2006 to 20 in 2007. These moves suggest<br />

CCB’s expansion plan in HK has continued.<br />

Inappropriate time to acquire because…<br />

While US subprime meltdown does not pose a systemic<br />

threat to the HK banking sector, HKMA deputy chief<br />

executive Choi Yiu-kwan warns that “local lenders should<br />

not lose sight of the second wave” and closely monitor the<br />

contagion effect on HK’s economic growth and asset<br />

quality. An increase in bad debt charges would erode<br />

profitability of HK banks.<br />

Profitability to be trimmed by economic slowdown<br />

Bank asset qualities remain sound so far, as the overdue<br />

loan ratio hovers at a record low of 0.6% and bad debt<br />

charge to asset ratio stands at 0.04% as of 3Q07.<br />

However, when economic activities start moderating over<br />

the course of the year, overdue loans and bad debt<br />

charges should start to rise as they usually lag behind the<br />

business cycle. For instance, when HK’s real GDP slowed<br />

from 6% in 1994 to 2.3% in 1995, banks’ bad debt charge<br />

ratio edged up from 0.05% in 1994 to 0.18% 1996. After<br />

the Asian financial crisis, this ratio peaked at 0.76% in<br />

1999. Despite these concerns, we believe the HK<br />

economy should be more resilient than before, as<br />

discussed in the previous <strong>AP</strong> weekly. We expect the ratio<br />

to be more in line with 1996 levels. Hence, the impact on<br />

the HK banking sector is likely to be limited as ROE<br />

declines 1.9%p to 14.6% and ROA narrows 0.15%p to<br />

1.2%.<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 22


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Figure 2. Impact of HK Economic Slowdown<br />

Banking<br />

Sector<br />

Scenario 1 Scenario 2<br />

2006 A slowdown A recession<br />

Pre-provision<br />

ROA<br />

% 1.54 1.54 1.54<br />

Bad debt charge % of asset 0.01 0.18 0.76<br />

Pre-tax ROA % 1.53 1.36 0.78<br />

Tax % of asset 0.18 0.16 0.09<br />

Post-tax ROA % 1.35 1.20 0.69<br />

Equity/Asset % 8.2 8.2 8.2<br />

ROE % 16.5 14.6 8.4<br />

Source: HKMA, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

We prefer CCB on undemanding valuation<br />

We believe CCB’s expansion in Asia through organic<br />

growth and acquisition should continue and be positive to<br />

the bank’s long-term outlook. As a global economic<br />

slowdown would erode profitability, it is in the bank’s favor<br />

to fight for the best valuation, which is more than what the<br />

Wu family is asking, or to look for other opportunities in the<br />

Asian region. CCB is trading at 16.6x FY08 earnings, well<br />

below the peer group average. Coupled with 28% EPS<br />

CAGR, we prefer CCB compared to its China peers.<br />

Figure 3. Peer Group Comparison<br />

(X,%)<br />

P/E<br />

2007<br />

P/E<br />

2008<br />

P/B<br />

2007<br />

P/B<br />

2008<br />

3-yr<br />

EPS<br />

CAGR<br />

China Merchant Bank 42.3 29.3 6.4 5.4 42.7<br />

Bank of Comm. 27.5 21.4 4.3 3.9 34.1<br />

China Construction Bank 20.2 16.6 3.7 3.4 28.3<br />

Bank of China 14.3 11.0 1.9 1.7 25.4<br />

ICBC 22.0 17.0 3.4 3.2 31.7<br />

China CITIC Bank 21.8 15.1 2.6 2.3 45.2<br />

Average 24.7 18.4 3.7 3.3 34.6<br />

Sources: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 23


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Internet / Software<br />

Company Update<br />

China’s B2B e-Commerce Giant<br />

Woo-Cheol Jeong<br />

82-2-3774-6708 / good@miraeasset.com<br />

Taeyoung Kim<br />

82-2-3774-2132 / tykim@miraeasset.com<br />

Highlighted Companies<br />

Company Rating Current Price (Jan 9) Target Price<br />

Alibaba.com (1688.HK) HOLD HK$ HK$ 19.00<br />

Initiate with HOLD rating and TP of HK$ 19.00<br />

We initiated coverage of Alibaba.com with a HOLD rating<br />

and TP of HK$19.00. We have a neutral stance on the<br />

stock as even though the price has fallen more than 50%<br />

from the previous high due to weak global stock<br />

performance, we still view the current valuation as<br />

demanding.<br />

Alibaba.com was listed on the HKSE on November 6,<br />

2007. The company raised US$1.5bn in its IPO, which<br />

was the largest IT offering since Google. As China’s<br />

largest and leading e-commerce company, Alibaba.com<br />

has first mover advantage in the Chinese B2B ecommerce<br />

market.<br />

The company is currently trading at FY08 forecast P/E of<br />

97.9x. Chinese Internet firms on the NASDAQ are trading<br />

at an average FY08 forecast P/E of 26.7x, while the<br />

benchmark Hang Seng Index average FY08 forecast P/E<br />

is 17.6x. TP was derived by applying Hang Seng Index<br />

average PEG of 0.9x to 3-year EPS growth in anticipation<br />

of the company’s growth potential. As there is limited<br />

upside potential (current stock price is HK$19.58), we<br />

maintain a HOLD on the company.<br />

We forecast the company to post FY08 revenue of<br />

RMB3.4bn (up 54.3% YoY) and OP of RMB760mn (up<br />

75.6% YoY). The company should enjoy such robust<br />

growth thanks to its first mover advantage in the China<br />

B2B e-commerce market. Considering China’s high<br />

economic growth and rapidly improving Internet<br />

infrastructure, high growth of the B2B e-commerce market<br />

should sustain.<br />

Of note, the utilization rate of e-commerce by China<br />

SME’s is rising fast. Moreover, the proportion of paid<br />

members among the company’s member base is still very<br />

small, thus leaving ample room for growth.<br />

Figure 1. Paid subscribers<br />

(1,000) Gold Supplier (Lhs)<br />

(1,000)<br />

25<br />

International TrustPass (Lhs)<br />

250<br />

20<br />

China TrustPass (Rhs)<br />

200<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 24<br />

15<br />

10<br />

5<br />

0<br />

05/12 06/06 06/12 07/06<br />

Source: Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

Figure 2. Revenue and OP<br />

(RMB mn)<br />

6,000<br />

5,000<br />

4,000<br />

3,000<br />

2,000<br />

1,000<br />

0<br />

Revenue (Lhs) OP (Rhs)<br />

2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E<br />

Source: Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

0<br />

150<br />

100<br />

50<br />

0<br />

(RMB mn)<br />

1,400<br />

1,200<br />

1,000<br />

800<br />

600<br />

400<br />

200


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Tech<br />

Industry Update<br />

Semiconductor Update<br />

Hak Moo Lee<br />

82-2-3774-1785 / hmlee@miraeasset.com<br />

We believe that the DRAM cycle has bottomed out.<br />

However, there are still several uncertainties, given 1) that<br />

Qimonda has issued convertible bonds; 2) that Micron<br />

Technology should shortly spin-off its CMOS image<br />

sensor business and focus on its memory business; 3)<br />

that Powerchip Semiconductor Corp (PSC) should expand<br />

sub-32-nm CMOS research.<br />

Qimonda is projecting revenue to drop -56% YoY to<br />

€513mn and NP to turn in the red to €598mn in 4QFY07.<br />

The operating cash outflow was around US$400mn in the<br />

same quarter, and it had been performing the worst<br />

among DRAM companies (Figure 1).<br />

Figure 1. Operating Cash Flow in 4QFY07<br />

(US$ mn)<br />

400<br />

300<br />

200<br />

100<br />

0<br />

(100)<br />

(200)<br />

(300)<br />

(400)<br />

(500)<br />

Micron<br />

Hynix<br />

Source: Micron Technology<br />

Elpida<br />

Even though DRAM prices have rebounded recently by<br />

around 15-20% from the previous bottom, major<br />

commodity DRAMs such as DDR2 512Mb are still far<br />

below cash cost. Therefore, Qimonda could continue to<br />

suffer from operating cash outflow.<br />

Recently, Qimonda issued convertible bonds (total amount<br />

US$217.6mn, 17.5mn ADSs with an initial conversion<br />

price of US$7.25 per share at a coupon of 6.75%). We<br />

believe that it would take more time to reach the<br />

meaningful reflection point of the DRAM industry, due to<br />

Qimonda’s efforts to survive. In spite of the operating cash<br />

outflow, the company still focuses on the DRAM<br />

technology progress to 58nm and the cost optimization of<br />

ProMOS<br />

Powerchip<br />

Nanya<br />

Qimonda<br />

1Gb DDR2 on 75nm.<br />

Micron Technology also seems to focus on being a<br />

dedicated memory manufacturer by spinning off it CMOS<br />

image sensor (CIS) units. We see that this could bring<br />

about more competition among the top memory players.<br />

Micron has been well positioned to benefit from 8” fab<br />

leverage on CIS like the system LSI business of Samsung<br />

Electronics. Unlike other dedicated DRAM players, Micron<br />

and Samsung Electronics have been less vulnerable to<br />

the price drops due to their 8” fab utilization on various<br />

products other than DRAMs.<br />

Even though Micron has a plan to expand the NAND flash<br />

market by sub-40 nm products in 2H08, it would suffer<br />

from its supply of DRAM units due to the relatively<br />

stagnant progress in technology migration to sub-70 nm.<br />

More than 80% of DRAM in Micron’s 12” fab in Virginia<br />

and Singapore is being produced in 78nm technology,<br />

which has less size efficiency than Samsung’s 68nm and<br />

Hynix’s 66nm technology.<br />

We believe that the restructuring of the DRAM industry is<br />

imminent, but the speed would be slower than anticipated.<br />

Powerchip Semiconductor, a Taiwan DRAM company, is<br />

poised to join the sub-32 mn memory technology group<br />

from next month. Powerchip Semiconductor is also<br />

struggling with operating cash outflow. However, it should<br />

progress one step forward to strive to survive in DRAM<br />

industry.<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 25


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Tech<br />

Industry Update<br />

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactu<br />

ring (TSMC)<br />

(2330.TT, Not Rated)<br />

United Microelectronics (UMC)<br />

(2303.TT, Not Rated)<br />

H C Kwan.CFA<br />

852-2295-2525 / kwanhc@miraeasset.com<br />

A bump cleared, but more ahead<br />

Both TSMC and UMC during the week reported net sales<br />

figures for the month of January as sales were flat on a<br />

MoM basis. TSMC reported small growth of 3.6% MoM to<br />

NT$31.0bn while UMC reported a small MoM decline of<br />

2.9% to NT$8.2bn.<br />

The performances of both foundries in January are in line<br />

with earlier guidance. But we see more turbulence ahead<br />

for them, especially in 1H08.<br />

UMC is expected to face sharp slowdown in sales over the<br />

next two months. We estimate a 20% drop in sales in the<br />

last two months of 1Q08 due to shrinking shipment volume<br />

and ASP. Given over 30% depreciation costs in COGS,<br />

profit, in there is any, is likely to drop significantly.<br />

TSMC may do better for its higher share of sales from<br />

advanced under-90nm process nodes, which may edge up<br />

2%p to 35%. But a fall in utilization rate to 70% from 85%<br />

in 4Q07 should hurt bottom line.<br />

We believe 1H08 should be a tough period for<br />

semiconductor players and look forward to a turnaround in<br />

3Q08, driven by ever increasing popularity of flat panel<br />

TVs. The US is scheduled to terminate analog<br />

broadcasting in February 2009. Barring a severe downturn<br />

in economic activities, demand for new replacement TV<br />

should be solid in the US and around the world.<br />

Figure1.Total Semiconductor Capital Spending (US$bn)<br />

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012<br />

59.09 51.30 55.72 63.25 58.25 62.65<br />

Source: Gartner<br />

As shipment slows, top foundries are cutting capex in<br />

equipment investment and turning to R&D to boost<br />

productivity. Unlike their peers, these companies have<br />

been cutting capex more aggressively. According to<br />

Gartner’s newly release estimates, global semiconductor<br />

capital expenditures is forecasted to shrink 13.2% to<br />

US$51.3bn. In the meantime, the two foundries plan to cut<br />

even more than that: each by over 30% in 2008.<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 26


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Telecom<br />

Earnings Review<br />

Industry Update<br />

IPTV Begins to Bloom in Asia<br />

Young Choi<br />

82-2-3774-2173 / young.choi@miraeasset.com<br />

Our View on Highlighted Companies<br />

Company Rating<br />

Current<br />

Price(Feb13)<br />

Target Price<br />

KT(030200.KS) BUY W50,000 W 71,000<br />

SKT(017670.KS) BUY W189,000 W 330,000<br />

Hanaro Telecom(033630.KS) BUY W11,600 W13,100<br />

China Telecom(728.HK) Not Rated HK$5.74 N/A<br />

China Netcom(906.HK) Not Rated HK$23.10 N/A<br />

PCCW(8.HK) Not Rated HK$4.43 N/A<br />

IPTV business is on a rising trend in the Asian<br />

telecommunications industry. As most fixed-line telecom<br />

operators face declining revenue from fixed-line<br />

operations, IPTV is emerging as a positive new growth<br />

driver. Also, recent trends toward telecom-media<br />

convergence should be another factor driving IPTV<br />

business growth. China started IPTV services in 2005 and<br />

Korea is expected to launch full-IPTV services with realtime<br />

broadcasting in early 2H08. Meanwhile, Hong Kong<br />

has already seen meaningful penetration in IPTV services.<br />

Figure 1. IPTV Subscriber Numbers in Asian Market<br />

('000)<br />

1,200<br />

2006 2007<br />

1,000<br />

800<br />

846<br />

758<br />

900<br />

600<br />

500<br />

400<br />

200<br />

0<br />

China Hong Kong<br />

(PCCW)<br />

150<br />

1,131<br />

Korea<br />

Source: Korea Electriocs Information Center, PCCW, Mirae Asset<br />

Research estimates<br />

Note: Hong Kong’s 2007 number is estimation<br />

Note: KT’s subscriber number is not considered in Korea’s 2006 number<br />

China’s IPTV subscriptions were 846,000 persons at end-<br />

2007, significantly below market expectation of 1.3mn. We<br />

believe regulations on IPTV led to the sluggish growth.<br />

The Chinese government issued IPTV business licenses<br />

to only four broadcasting companies (Shanghai Media<br />

Group(SMG), CCTV, Southern Media Corp(SMC), and<br />

Zhejiang Radio Television Group(ZRTG)), and has not<br />

allowed telcos to operate the business directly. Separation<br />

of services from the network deterred aggressive<br />

infrastructure investments by telcos. However, we remain<br />

focused on the following positive drivers for IPTV services:<br />

1) CT, CNC and SMG willingness to support IPTV<br />

business; and 2) government plans to reduce the gap in<br />

information accessibility between urban and rural regions.<br />

In short, IPTV business has great potential to grow in the<br />

China market.<br />

Hong Kong now looks to be the world leader in IPTV<br />

penetration with the success of PCCW’s ‘nowTV’ service.<br />

Launched in 2003, nowTV is expected to have had around<br />

900,000 subscribers at end-2007. Aside from the fact that<br />

IPTV subscriptions and ARPU showed steady growth, we<br />

are focused on PCCW’s QPS plan to utilize content<br />

distribution across various platforms (mobile, fixed-line,<br />

broadband, IPTV). We believe PCCW should benefit from<br />

the QPS plan as it should lower churn rate of other<br />

products and increase overall ARPU. We also believe<br />

PCCW’s nowTV is a stronger service than i-Cable’s<br />

(dominant cable TV operator), considering superiority of<br />

content and availability of bundled service.<br />

Figure 2. PCCW’s nowTV Subsciptions and ARPU<br />

Trend<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 27<br />

('000)<br />

1,000<br />

800<br />

600<br />

400<br />

200<br />

0<br />

Subs (LHS)<br />

monthly ARPU (RHS)<br />

2H03 1H04 2H04 1H05 2H05 1H06 2H06 1H07<br />

Source: PCCW, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

(HK$)<br />

200<br />

In Korea, we believe IPTV is about to bloom. Total number<br />

of subscribers of pre-IPTV (based on VOD service)<br />

reached 1.1mn as of December 2007. With the National<br />

Assembly granting full-IPTV services at the end of last<br />

year, launch of full-IPTV services should begin early 2H08<br />

by major fixed-line telcos, like KT and Hanaro Telecom.<br />

Also, as dominate mobile operator SKT’s acquisition of<br />

Hanaro Telecom is expected to be approved by the<br />

government, the IPTV market should be driven by two<br />

dominate players: KT and SKT. This should lead to largescale<br />

penetration of IPTV business, in our view.<br />

160<br />

120<br />

80<br />

40<br />

0


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Figure 3. Trend in Korea IPTV Subscriptions<br />

('000)<br />

1,200<br />

1,000<br />

800<br />

600<br />

400<br />

200<br />

0<br />

Hanaro (HanaTV) KT (MegaTV)<br />

55 65 73<br />

147<br />

230<br />

548 501 540 591 664<br />

280<br />

754<br />

325<br />

807<br />

Jun07 Aug07 Oct07 Dec07<br />

Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 28


<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />

Recommendation<br />

By item (six months)<br />

Buy: A target price of over + 20% of the current price,<br />

Hold: A target price of - 10% to +10% of the current price<br />

Reduce: A target price of –20% or less than the current price<br />

* Note: Correction of –10% to +10% is possible based on the<br />

investment recommendations by industry.<br />

Earnings Quality Score<br />

By industry<br />

Attractive: over +10% of the current industry index<br />

Neutral: -10% to +10% of the current industry index<br />

Cautious: -10% or less than the current industry index<br />

Terminology of Investment recommendation by industry has changed<br />

since August 3, 2005 as follows: Overweight Attractive /<br />

Underweight Cautious.<br />

Earnings Quality Score = 0.70*(Historical Earnings Stability) + 0.15*(Consensus Forecast Certainty) + 0.15*(Consensus Forecast<br />

Accuracy)<br />

1. Historical Earnings Stability<br />

- The variability of the net profit growth rate (YOY) over the last 20 quarters was translated into percentage terms.<br />

- Earnings growth variability was calculated based on MAD (Median Absolute Deviation), rather than SD (Standard Deviation) in order to<br />

minimize distortion from outliers.<br />

- The lower the earnings growth variability, the higher this indicator.<br />

2. Consensus Forecast Certainty<br />

- The gap between analysts' views on 12-month forward EPS was translated into percentage terms.<br />

- The gap is calculated by dividing the SD of 12-month forward EPS with the average value.<br />

- The narrower the gap is, the higher this indicator.<br />

3. Consensus Forecast Accuracy<br />

- The median value of absolute EPS surprise over the last 3-year was translated into percentage terms.<br />

- EPS surprise was calculated based on 'the actual figure at the end of the year / the consensus estimate at the beginning of the year - 1'.<br />

- The lower the absolute EPS surprise, the higher this indicator.<br />

* Reference<br />

1) Consensus Forecast Certainty and Consensus Forecast Accuracy were applied only to companies with more than 5 years of EPS<br />

estimates.<br />

2) We gave the average score of 50 to cases in which the aforementioned indicators could not be produced.<br />

Compliance Notice<br />

This report is distributed to our clients only, and none of the report material may be copied or distributed to any other party. While we have taken<br />

all reasonable care to ensure its reliability, we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Therefore, Mirae Asset shall not be liable for any<br />

result from the use of this report. As of Jan 18, Mirae Asset is entrusted to deal with the disposition and acquisition of treasury stock for SK<br />

Telecom.<br />

As of Feb 15, Mirae Asset Securities is SKT, KT's ELW issuer and LP.<br />

For China Merchants Bank (3968.HK), Bank of Communications (3328.HK), China Construction Bank (0939.HK), Bank of China (3988.HK),<br />

ICBC (1398.HK), China CITIC Bank (0998.HK), Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777.HK), and Li Ning (2331.HK):<br />

Mirae Asset HK (MAHK) has financial interest in China Merchant Bank as at January 31, 2008, but no financial interests in other companies as at<br />

January 31, 2008. MAHK does not act as a market maker of the companies on January 31, 2008. No employees of MAHK serve as an officer of<br />

the companies as at January 31, 2008. MAHK acts no investment banking roles for the companies within past 12 months.<br />

This report has never been provided to any institutional investor or third party. This report has been prepared without any undue external<br />

influence or interference, and accurately reflects the personal views of the analyst on the company herein.<br />

[Mirae Asset Securities Research]<br />

Item Analyst Type<br />

Securities Held by the Analyst<br />

Number of<br />

Shares<br />

Purchasing<br />

Price<br />

Purchasing<br />

Date<br />

Holdings of<br />

Shares over1%<br />

Participation in<br />

the Issuance of<br />

Securities<br />

Involvement<br />

with the<br />

Affiliates<br />

Treasury Stock<br />

Acquired<br />

Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 29<br />

NA

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