AP Weekly Insight
AP Weekly Insight AP Weekly Insight
Weekly Update AP Weekly Insight Asia Pacific ex Japan / Investment Strategy Agenda Equity Research Feb 15, 2008 21 Did the Snowstorm Freeze Chinese Consumers? Anita Hwang 27 Tech: (TSMC) (2330.TT, Not Rated) / (UMC) (2303.TT, Not Rated) H C Kwan.CFA 23 Banking: M&A Rumor & Asset Quality Worries Patrick Pong Key Calls 16 Metal & Mining: Shougang Concord Int’l (697 HK,BUY,TP HK$ 3.50) EY Lee 14 Pharmaceutical: CSL LTD (CSL AU,BUY,TP A$42.04) Sean Hwang 2 AP Economics Temporary Negative Effect from Snowstorm Hee Chan Park 3 4 5 7 11 14 Fixed Income Another liquidity cycle? Byungsoo Lee, CFA Fund Flows Funds Flow Bottomming…. Sunyoung Ahn, CFA Quant Strategy Valuations vs. Earnings Young Jean Hwang Earnings & Valuation / Performance Table Asia Pacific Country & Sector Rating for February Pharmaceutical CSL LTD (CSL AU,BUY,TP A$42.04) Sean Hwang 16 Metal & Mining Shougang Concord Int’l (697 HK,BUY,TP HK$ 3.50) EY Lee 18 Construction & Property Chongqing - Glittering in Western China Kaiser Choi 19 Shipping NOL: Stronger than Expected US Routes Jay Ryu 20 Auto Parts Strong Potential in Key Emerging Markets Jaewoo Kim 21 Consumer China’s Consumer Sector Anita Hwang 22 Banking M&A Rumor & Asset Quality Worries Patrick Pong 24 Internet / Software China’s B2B e-Commerce Giant Woo-Cheol Jeong 25 Tech Semiconductor Update Hak Moo Lee 26 Tech Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC)(2330.TT, Not Rated) United Microelectronics (UMC)(2303.TT, Not Rated) H C Kwan,CFA 27 Telecom IPTV Begins to Bloom in Asia Young Choi MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH
- Page 2 and 3: AP Insight AP Economics Comment Chi
- Page 4 and 5: AP Insight Fund Flows Weekly Update
- Page 6 and 7: AP Insight Figure 4. Earnings Revis
- Page 8 and 9: AP Insight Table 2. Earnings & Valu
- Page 10 and 11: AP Insight Table 6. Asia Pacific Co
- Page 12 and 13: AP Insight Table 2. Asia Pacific ex
- Page 14 and 15: AP Weekly Insight Pharmaceutical Ke
- Page 16 and 17: AP Insight Metal & Mining Initiatio
- Page 18 and 19: AP Insight Construction & Property
- Page 20 and 21: AP Insight Auto Parts Industry Upda
- Page 22 and 23: AP Insight Banking Industry Update
- Page 24 and 25: AP Insight Internet / Software Comp
- Page 26 and 27: AP Insight Tech Industry Update Tai
- Page 28 and 29: AP Insight Figure 3. Trend in Korea
<strong>Weekly</strong> Update<br />
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Weekly</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Asia Pacific ex Japan / Investment Strategy<br />
Agenda<br />
Equity Research<br />
Feb 15, 2008<br />
21 Did the Snowstorm Freeze Chinese Consumers? Anita Hwang<br />
27 Tech: (TSMC) (2330.TT, Not Rated) / (UMC) (2303.TT, Not Rated) H C Kwan.CFA<br />
23 Banking: M&A Rumor & Asset Quality Worries Patrick Pong<br />
Key Calls<br />
16 Metal & Mining: Shougang Concord Int’l (697 HK,BUY,TP HK$ 3.50) EY Lee<br />
14 Pharmaceutical: CSL LTD (CSL AU,BUY,TP A$42.04) Sean Hwang<br />
2 <strong>AP</strong> Economics<br />
Temporary Negative Effect from Snowstorm<br />
Hee Chan Park<br />
3<br />
4<br />
5<br />
7<br />
11<br />
14<br />
Fixed Income<br />
Another liquidity cycle?<br />
Byungsoo Lee, CFA<br />
Fund Flows<br />
Funds Flow Bottomming….<br />
Sunyoung Ahn, CFA<br />
Quant Strategy<br />
Valuations vs. Earnings<br />
Young Jean Hwang<br />
Earnings & Valuation / Performance Table<br />
Asia Pacific Country & Sector Rating for February<br />
Pharmaceutical<br />
CSL LTD (CSL AU,BUY,TP A$42.04)<br />
Sean Hwang<br />
16 Metal & Mining<br />
Shougang Concord Int’l (697 HK,BUY,TP HK$ 3.50)<br />
EY Lee<br />
18 Construction & Property<br />
Chongqing - Glittering in Western China<br />
Kaiser Choi<br />
19 Shipping<br />
NOL: Stronger than Expected US Routes<br />
Jay Ryu<br />
20 Auto Parts<br />
Strong Potential in Key Emerging Markets<br />
Jaewoo Kim<br />
21 Consumer<br />
China’s Consumer Sector<br />
Anita Hwang<br />
22 Banking<br />
M&A Rumor & Asset Quality Worries<br />
Patrick Pong<br />
24 Internet / Software<br />
China’s B2B e-Commerce Giant<br />
Woo-Cheol Jeong<br />
25 Tech<br />
Semiconductor Update<br />
Hak Moo Lee<br />
26 Tech<br />
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSMC)(2330.TT, Not Rated)<br />
United Microelectronics (UMC)(2303.TT, Not Rated)<br />
H C Kwan,CFA<br />
27 Telecom<br />
IPTV Begins to Bloom in Asia<br />
Young Choi<br />
MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
<strong>AP</strong> Economics<br />
Comment<br />
China Economy<br />
Hee Chan Park<br />
82-2-3774-1850 / hcpark@miraeasset.com<br />
Temporary Negative Effect from Snowstorm<br />
Estimates of immediate damage<br />
The snowstorm has cast a shadow over China’s short-term<br />
growth prospects. GDP growth under 10% YoY cannot be<br />
ruled out.<br />
Six key provinces suffering from the snowstorm are Anhui,<br />
Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi and Guizhou, but among<br />
them Anhui, Hunan and Hubei were most affected. The<br />
affected regions produce 10-15% of total GDP. Considering<br />
that entire economic activities stopped for a month in these<br />
regions, we estimate 1Q08 GDP to fall by 3.4-4.7%.<br />
Figure 1. Weight of Damaged Districts by Activity<br />
(%)<br />
25<br />
20<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
14.3<br />
15.4<br />
10.1 10.6 10.4<br />
16.4<br />
14.7<br />
22.2<br />
7.0<br />
10.4<br />
3 Province<br />
6 Province<br />
2.9<br />
1.9<br />
State GDP Retail Sales Fixed Agricultural Industrial Exports<br />
investmet Production Production<br />
Source: FactSet, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
Damage is likely to be different by industry. Primary industry<br />
and domestic demand seems to be more affected than<br />
secondary industry or exports. In terms of total national<br />
output, agricultural production of the damaged regions<br />
makes up 14.7-22.2%. However, industrial production<br />
makes up 7.0-10.4%, retail sales 10.6-15.4%, fixed<br />
investment 10.4-16.4%, and exports just 1.9-2.9%.<br />
Figure 2. Primary Production in 2007<br />
(100Bn Yuan)<br />
20<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 2<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
23.6<br />
Whole Country (LHS) (%)<br />
6 Province (LHS)<br />
25<br />
Weight of 6 Province (RHS)<br />
23<br />
22.0<br />
20.9<br />
21<br />
1Q07 2Q07 3Q07<br />
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Mirae Asset Research<br />
estimates<br />
Long-term effect from snowstorm<br />
Annual GDP growth should not be significantly affected for<br />
the following positive factors:<br />
(1) 1Q GDP makes up just one-fifth of the entire year’s GDP<br />
(relatively lower than other quarters) as production<br />
activity nearly stops during the Lunar New Year holiday.<br />
(2) Coal shortage is to be eased once transportation is<br />
restored; Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and Henan (46.7% of<br />
total domestic coal production) have not been seriously<br />
affected by the storm.<br />
(3) Post-storm reconstruction should enhance investments<br />
into infrastructure; special agricultural loans from the<br />
PBC for affected areas and subsidies from central states<br />
and other countries should boost the growth rate.<br />
However, inflation still remains a risk factor. Price has risen<br />
sharply since the storm. High inflation should sustain until<br />
restoration is complete. But we cannot rule out the<br />
possibility that this might prolong the inflation period, and<br />
exacerbate sluggishness in domestic demand.<br />
Investment implications<br />
Inflationary pressure heightened by variables like natural<br />
disasters are not significant factors for a rate hike. Although<br />
the snowstorm is likely to have increased inflationary<br />
pressure, the rate hike does not seem to be a card the PBC<br />
can use. Moreover, concerns of a US recession, and the<br />
Fed’s aggressive rate cuts are additional obstacles to a rate<br />
hike.<br />
19<br />
17<br />
15
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Fixed Income<br />
Comment<br />
Another liquidity cycle?<br />
Byungsoo Lee, CFA<br />
82-2-3774-2174 / bsool@miraeasset.com<br />
High possibility of Europe following US lead<br />
Monetary policy in advanced countries took note of the<br />
quick and sharp cuts in the US Fed Funds rate. Last week,<br />
the bank of England (BOE) also lowered its benchmark<br />
rate 25bp to 5.25%, following a December 2007 rate cut,<br />
reflecting concerns that a sharp slowdown of activity pulls<br />
inflation below its target in the mid term. The European<br />
Central Bank (ECB) newly expressed that uncertainty<br />
about prospects for economic growth are unusually high,<br />
even though it kept its rate on hold due to inflation risk.<br />
Figure 1. Monetary Easing in Advanced Countries<br />
(% ) Policy Rates in the Major Advanced Countries<br />
7<br />
6<br />
5<br />
4<br />
3<br />
US<br />
2<br />
Canada<br />
1<br />
0<br />
ECB<br />
UK<br />
03 04 05 06 07 08<br />
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Research Center<br />
In its monetary statement of January 10, the ECB expects<br />
Europe to grow at pace close to its projected growth rate<br />
despite uncertainty in the overseas financial markets.<br />
However, recently the ECB took a more conservative<br />
stance on economic prospects due to the heightened<br />
possibility of the European economy being affected by a<br />
major slowdown in the US. We believe this is due mainly<br />
to the German and French economies slowing quicker<br />
than other European economies, adding to fears that this<br />
will affect the European economy as a whole<br />
Advanced countries affected by the US economic<br />
slowdown are highly likely to follow the US lead and lower<br />
benchmark rates as well. We need to focus on the fact<br />
that the BOE has continued to lower rates, even though<br />
the UK has strong domestic demand relative to other<br />
European countries. The European bond market has<br />
already priced in a future rate cut with government bond<br />
yields now below the ECB policy rate of 4%,<br />
BoK may stay ahead of the curve.<br />
The February BOK has decided to leave its benchmark<br />
rate at 5% (unchanged since August 2007). What is most<br />
different from previous statements is that the BOK is very<br />
concerned with the uncertainty of Korean economic<br />
prospects due to spillover from the US slowdown. With<br />
private consumption slowly moderating, the Korean<br />
economy is likely to grow at a slower pace if exports<br />
weaken (even though solid now) due to decrease in<br />
demand by major trading partners. Given the BOK<br />
chairman’s remarks on the possibility of preemptive easing<br />
of monetary policy ahead of adverse economic data, we<br />
expect the BOK to cut its benchmark rate by 50bp in the<br />
first half of this year.<br />
Other countries continue tightening stance<br />
With the uncertain over global financial markets, several<br />
resource-rich countries have been tightening their rates.<br />
Australia raised its benchmark rate to 7% and Russia<br />
raised its benchmark rate to 10.25%. These countries are<br />
exports-oriented and benefiting from the fast growth of<br />
emerging economies. This may imply that emerging<br />
countries are growing steadily relative to advanced<br />
countries and thus indicates that negative spillover effects<br />
from US are limited. However, we believe that these<br />
countries will need to lower rates going forward due to<br />
rapidly widening interest rates worldwide.<br />
Figure 2. Monetary Tightening Abroad<br />
(% ) Policy Rates in the High-Resource Countries<br />
20<br />
Australia<br />
18<br />
Russia<br />
16<br />
Norway<br />
14<br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
Sweden<br />
03 04 05 06 07 08<br />
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Research Center<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 3
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Fund Flows<br />
<strong>Weekly</strong> Update<br />
Funds Flow Bottomming….<br />
Sunyoung Ahn, CFA<br />
82-2-3774-1409 / syan@miraeasset.com<br />
Regional funds such as international funds and emerging market funds recorded slight net inflow or moderate net outflow. For<br />
the US funds, which had posted a large-scale outflow over three weeks consecutively, outflow declined to 70% of the level<br />
recorded two weeks ago (or US$6.7bn) last week.<br />
In Korea and India, foreign investors are selling some stocks for profit-taking. Meantime, in other Asian countries, moderate net<br />
purchase has been going on for the past three weeks.<br />
Due to the fund flow attributes lagging the market, it is premature to expect a dramatic turn into inflow. However, the fact that<br />
the global fund flow and foreign investors’ trading in Asia is stabilizing raises the expectations for the market’s bottoming out.<br />
Figure 1. Global & US Fund Flow Figure 2. Global Sector Fund Flow<br />
(US$ mn) 02/07~<br />
02/13<br />
<strong>Weekly</strong> Net Inflow<br />
01/31~<br />
02/06<br />
4-Wk Net<br />
Inflow<br />
YTD<br />
Total<br />
Asset<br />
Total Equity Type -7,606 -7,912 -36,600 -37,696 -<br />
Asia ex.<br />
Japan<br />
-461 -435 -7,059 -8,641 169,423<br />
South<br />
America<br />
Emerging<br />
markets<br />
EMEA<br />
-162<br />
-288<br />
-131<br />
-72<br />
-1,595<br />
-2,240<br />
-2,248<br />
-1,177<br />
45,030<br />
51,718<br />
Emerging<br />
markets<br />
Emerging<br />
-116 571 -3,855 -4,931 216,554<br />
markets,<br />
total<br />
-1,026 -68 -14,750 -16,996 482,724<br />
Pacific -5 35 -764 -1,113 21,420<br />
International 128 1,332 -5,937 -5,534 764,654<br />
US -6,725 -9,579 -32,031 -35,588 1,803,353<br />
Advanced Europe<br />
markets<br />
-1,105 -145 -7,031 -14,755 301,122<br />
Japan -279 -503 -3,207 -4,214 40,285<br />
Taxable Bond Fund 1,200 2,200 5,323 9,523 -<br />
Note: Each period from Thursday to Wednesday<br />
Source: AMG Data Service, EPFR (as of February 13, 2008)<br />
(US$ mn)<br />
<strong>Weekly</strong> Net Inflow<br />
Last 2 Weeks 3 Weeks<br />
Week ago ago<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 4<br />
4-Wk<br />
Total<br />
2008<br />
YTD<br />
Total<br />
Asset<br />
All Sector<br />
Funds<br />
-695 -2,147 -1,741 -3,855 -1,296 231,643<br />
Commodities/<br />
Materials<br />
155 -51 301 382 1,500 58,950<br />
Consumer Goods 307 109 -99 607 696 6,465<br />
Energy -641 -448 -711 -1,674 -2,560 26,892<br />
Financials 274 -1,445 222 -50 1,644 15,361<br />
Health Care/Biotech -68 -24 -135 -74 231 24,410<br />
Real Estate -425 -139 -579 -1,129 -895 45,749<br />
Technology -307 -132 -338 -1,044 -1,466 23,421<br />
Telecom -16 -100 -41 -283 -381 5,870<br />
Utilities 25 76 -343 -577 -50 24,273<br />
Note: Each period from Thursday to Wednesday<br />
Source: EPFR (as of February 13, 2008)<br />
Figure 3. Foreign Investors Trading Trend in Asia Figure 4. Foreign Investors in 6 Asian Countries<br />
(US$ mn)<br />
Last<br />
Week<br />
Foreign Investors' Net Purchases<br />
2<br />
Weeks<br />
ago<br />
3<br />
Weeks<br />
ago<br />
4<br />
Weeks<br />
ago<br />
4-Wk<br />
Total<br />
<strong>Weekly</strong> Market<br />
YTD<br />
Performance<br />
Korea -1,254 105 -745 -2,437 -4,332 -10,101 -4.72<br />
Taiwan 542 0 412 -586 368 -487 -1.81<br />
India -400 915 -1,182 -1,949 -2,616 -3,301 -3.31<br />
Thailand 269 304 380 -349 604 -333 3.31<br />
Indonesia 52 20 139 -76 134 207 -0.88<br />
Philippines 7 -35 3 -91 -115 -303 -1.16<br />
6 Asian<br />
Countries Total<br />
-784 1,308 -993 -5,488 -5,958 -14,318<br />
Japan N/A N/A -3,497 -1,495 -4,991 -6,799 0.12<br />
Note: Each period from Monday to Friday; Last week is from Monday to<br />
Thursday , Japanese as of January 25, 2008<br />
Source: Bloomberg(as of February 14, 2008)<br />
(pt)<br />
440<br />
400<br />
360<br />
320<br />
280<br />
240<br />
200<br />
160<br />
120<br />
80<br />
MSCI EM Asia Index (LHS)<br />
(USD mn)<br />
Foreign Investors' Accumulated Net Purchases<br />
220,000<br />
(RHS)<br />
190,000<br />
Jan-03 Nov-03 Sep-04 Jul-05 May-06 Mar-07 Jan-08<br />
Note: 6 Asia Markets include Korea, Taiwan, India, Indonesia, Thailand,<br />
Philippines.<br />
Source: Bloomberg(as of February 14, 2008)<br />
160,000<br />
130,000<br />
100,000<br />
70,000<br />
40,000<br />
10,000<br />
(20,000)
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Quantitative Strategy<br />
<strong>Weekly</strong> Update<br />
Valuations vs. Earnings<br />
Young Jean Hwang<br />
82-2-3774-1780 / YoungJean@miraeasset.com<br />
Valuations reasonable<br />
The global stock market has been weakening since Nov<br />
2007 amid concerns over a potential recession of the US<br />
economy. While the MSCI AC World index declined 14%<br />
from its 2007 high, the MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex. Japan<br />
index plunged 21% from its 2007 peak.<br />
This makes the valuations of the Asia Pacific ex. Japan<br />
market undemanding. 12-month forward P/E has declined<br />
28% from the previous high of 17.4x (Oct 29, 2007) to<br />
12.5x (Jan 22, 2008), and recently rebounded to 13.1x<br />
(Feb 13, 2008). The recent decline in 12-month forward<br />
P/E (from 17.4x to 12.5x) is the steepest since 2003, even<br />
in view of the decline of the 12-month forward P/E from its<br />
record high to its record low.<br />
Figure 1. 12-MF P/E in Asia-Pacific ex. Japan<br />
(x)<br />
18<br />
17.4x<br />
16.0x<br />
16<br />
14.6x<br />
14.2x<br />
13.9x<br />
14<br />
12.7x<br />
13.0x<br />
11.8x<br />
13.1x 12.9x<br />
12<br />
12.5x<br />
11.4x<br />
11.7x<br />
11.5x<br />
10<br />
10.2x 10.6x<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
In addition, 12-month trailing P/B of the Asia Pacific ex.<br />
Japan market has decreased to 2.4x from the 3.0x historic<br />
high recorded in Oct 2007. Though this is above the 2.0x<br />
average since 2001, it seems reasonable that the ROE of<br />
the Asia Pacific ex. Japan market still maintains its upward<br />
trend.<br />
Figure 2. 12-MT P/B in Asia-Pacific ex. Japan<br />
(x) (%)<br />
1.0<br />
8<br />
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 5<br />
3.5<br />
3.0<br />
2.5<br />
2.0<br />
1.5<br />
12M Trailing P/B<br />
12M Trailing ROE<br />
Source : MSCI, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Earnings deteriorating<br />
Meanwhile, estimated earnings prospects of the Asia<br />
Pacific ex. Japan market continue to deteriorate.<br />
Upgrades have outpaced downgrades since mid-January<br />
2008. The earnings revision ratio in the Asia Pacific ex.<br />
Japan market has recently plunged to -20%, the lowest<br />
since 2003.<br />
The earnings revision ratio fell to 0% in August 2007 when<br />
the seriousness of the subprime issue first began to be felt.<br />
In December 2007, it began declining further into negative<br />
territory over concerns of a potential recession in the US<br />
consumption that began to take shape.<br />
Figure 3. Earnings Revision Ratio in <strong>AP</strong> ex. Japan<br />
(%)<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
-10<br />
Earnings revision ratio (weekly)<br />
-20<br />
Earnings revision ratio (4-week MA)<br />
-30<br />
Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08<br />
Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
On a country level, countries that are highly linked to the<br />
US economy have experienced more deterioration in<br />
forecast earnings. The earnings revision ratios in Taiwan<br />
and Korea have recently plummeted into deep negative<br />
territory (from positive territory in November 2007). In<br />
Japan, its earnings revision ratio has been declining<br />
further into the negative, as well. On the contrary, the<br />
earnings revision ratios in India and Hong Kong have<br />
remained relatively robust.<br />
18<br />
16<br />
14<br />
12<br />
10
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Figure 4. Earnings Revision Ratios by Country<br />
(%)<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
-20<br />
-40<br />
-60<br />
Indonesia<br />
India<br />
Malaysia<br />
Hong Kong<br />
China<br />
Pakistan<br />
Philippines<br />
Nov 2007 Feb 2008<br />
Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Continuously deteriorating earnings revision ratios in the<br />
Asia Pacific ex. Japan market are likely to imply that the<br />
downward revision of forecast EPS is becoming a marketwide<br />
trend. As such, it is highly likely to deal a blow to<br />
valuation attractiveness in Asia Pacific ex. Japan.<br />
Market direction<br />
All in all, we think that while reasonable valuations will limit<br />
the market’s downside risk, stock markets are likely to<br />
remain range-bound until there is greater clarity about<br />
macroeconomic and earnings growth.<br />
Singapore<br />
Australia<br />
Japan<br />
Thailand<br />
New Zealand<br />
Korea<br />
Taiwan<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 6
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Earnings & Valuation / Performance Table<br />
Young Jean Hwang<br />
82-2-3774-1780 / YoungJean@miraeasset.com<br />
Table 1. Earnings & Valuation / Performance : Global Market<br />
Country Weight # Co's EPS G (%) EPS Change (%) ERR - 12MF 12-month Forward Valuation Performance<br />
08E 09E LT(5Y) 2008E 2009E 02/13 1W 1M PER PBR EV/EBITDA DY PEG 1W 1M 12M YTD<br />
(%) (YoY) (YoY) Forcast 1W 1M 1W 1M (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%)<br />
AC World 100.0 2,872 12.2 11.8 12.0 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -29 -27 -12 12.4 2.1 7.5 3.1 1.0 1.6 -4.9 -7 -9<br />
Developed Market 88.8 1,945 11.7 11.6 11.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -35 -32 -17 12.5 2.1 7.6 3.1 1.1 1.7 -4.5 -9 -9<br />
EAFE 42.1 1,205 8.6 10.2 9.6 -1.2 -1.4 -1.2 -1.4 -41 -37 -13 11.4 1.8 7.3 3.6 1.2 0.2 -7.0 -14 -12<br />
Pacific 12.7 586 5.0 10.9 11.6 -0.8 0.3 -0.5 0.6 -33 -30 -10 13.1 1.4 8.6 2.5 1.1 -1.0 -7.7 -20 -13<br />
North America 46.7 740 15.4 13.2 12.6 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.4 -25 -22 -24 13.7 2.9 7.9 2.5 1.1 3.1 -2.2 -5 -7<br />
Europe 29.4 619 9.9 10.0 8.8 -1.4 -2.0 -1.5 -2.2 -49 -44 -17 10.8 1.9 6.7 4.1 1.2 0.7 -6.6 -11 -11<br />
Emerging Market 11.2 927 15.8 13.1 19.3 -0.2 -0.9 -0.5 -1.1 -16 -15 2 12.1 2.0 6.9 2.9 0.6 0.5 -7.9 15 -11<br />
Asia 5.9 555 16.7 14.4 21.7 0.0 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7 -24 -22 2 12.8 2.0 6.8 2.8 0.6 -2.8 -11.3 17 -14<br />
Latin America 2.5 148 15.3 10.1 17.0 1.1 -0.2 0.1 -1.0 -2 -1 -2 12.5 3.6 8.9 3.7 0.7 6.0 0.9 23 -4<br />
Europe 1.6 102 11.9 8.6 13.9 -0.1 0.8 -0.2 -0.2 13 16 -3 10.1 1.5 6.4 2.6 0.7 4.1 -10.7 8 -12<br />
AC Asia Pacific 18.6 1,141 8.5 12.0 14.9 -0.6 -0.1 -0.4 0.2 -28 -26 -4 13.0 1.6 8.1 2.6 0.9 -1.6 -8.9 -11 -14<br />
AC <strong>AP</strong> ex. Japan 10.1 744 8.6 14.6 17.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 -24 -22 1 13.1 2.1 9.7 3.3 0.8 -2.2 -10.5 7 -14<br />
AC Asia 15.8 1,043 9.5 11.6 16.0 -0.8 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3 -28 -25 -4 13.1 1.5 6.9 2.3 0.8 -1.6 -9.1 -12 -14<br />
AC Asia ex. Japan 7.3 646 10.7 14.5 20.4 0.0 -0.7 -0.2 -0.7 -23 -20 1 13.3 2.0 7.2 2.9 0.7 -2.4 -11.5 15 -14<br />
Australia 2.7 88 13.9 7.9 9.0 0.0 0.8 0.5 2.0 -31 -40 -7 12.7 2.3 15.8 4.5 1.4 -1.7 -7.7 -7 -13<br />
Hong Kong 1.0 54 -19.8 16.2 16.1 -0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.4 -6 9 2 17.4 1.8 12.4 3.0 1.1 -1.5 -13.3 12 -16<br />
Japan 8.5 397 8.3 9.1 12.0 -1.4 -2.6 -1.2 -2.6 -37 -34 -13 13.1 1.3 6.7 1.8 1.1 -0.8 -6.9 -26 -13<br />
New Zealand 0.1 10 5.2 6.0 6.8 0.2 -0.5 0.1 -1.0 -40 -30 20 12.7 2.0 6.7 5.7 1.9 -4.9 -8.9 -19 -13<br />
Singapore 0.5 37 3.3 13.4 13.3 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7 -1.9 -31 -28 -6 12.7 1.8 3.4 4.1 1.0 0.4 -9.8 -6 -15<br />
China 1.6 112 21.5 16.6 23.8 0.0 1.1 -0.2 0.5 -9 -18 8 15.1 2.7 7.4 2.4 0.6 -0.6 -16.6 37 -18<br />
India 0.8 63 20.7 23.3 28.3 0.3 0.7 0.4 1.0 21 16 34 18.0 3.3 11.1 1.1 0.6 -7.4 -20.7 22 -19<br />
Indonesia 0.2 23 17.1 17.1 39.3 0.7 3.7 0.7 5.4 48 26 65 14.7 4.1 6.5 2.8 0.4 -0.9 -5.0 65 -2<br />
Korea 1.5 113 15.6 14.3 18.2 -0.8 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -54 -41 -36 10.5 1.4 5.5 2.0 0.6 -4.7 -7.3 13 -14<br />
Malaysia 0.3 56 -6.1 11.8 15.4 0.5 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -6 6 15 15.3 2.3 7.1 3.6 1.0 0.8 -6.0 16 -1<br />
Pakistan 0.0 13 18.7 10.1 12.6 -0.2 0.9 -0.2 0.4 -10 -10 -10 11.0 NA 6.9 4.7 0.9 1.2 3.9 15 3<br />
Philippines 0.1 18 15.0 19.3 13.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.8 -28 -17 11 13.9 2.3 6.2 3.2 1.1 -0.7 -8.2 -5 -11<br />
Taiwan 1.1 123 10.0 9.2 18.3 -0.4 -6.1 -0.9 -5.4 -57 -56 -12 11.1 1.7 6.3 5.2 0.6 -1.8 -5.1 -5 -11<br />
Thailand 0.2 34 100.9 6.9 12.3 0.3 0.9 0.3 1.3 -39 -29 20 11.2 2.0 6.5 3.8 0.9 4.5 5.6 24 -3<br />
AC Americas 49.3 888 15.4 13.0 12.8 -0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.3 -22 -20 -21 13.6 2.9 7.9 2.5 1.1 3.3 -2.1 -4 -6<br />
US 42.9 635 15.8 13.5 12.6 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.3 -27 -23 -27 13.6 2.9 7.9 2.5 1.1 3.1 -2.2 -5 -7<br />
Canada 3.8 105 11.0 9.8 11.6 0.7 1.8 1.0 2.6 -10 -15 -2 13.7 2.4 6.5 3.0 1.2 3.3 -2.6 2 -4<br />
Argentina 0.1 11 23 7.9 NA 66.7 77.9 -2.5 -2.2 0 0 0 10.5 NA NA 2.6 NA -0.1 -2.2 -13 -9<br />
Brazil 1.6 69 11.7 12.1 14.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 0.9 -3 0 -2 12.1 3.1 8.3 4.7 0.8 6.6 0.8 39 -4<br />
Chile 0.1 27 21.4 12.2 13.1 1.3 0.2 1.4 -0.3 13 7 13 15.0 1.8 7.0 3.0 1.1 5.0 1.6 -6 -6<br />
Colombia 0.0 7 45.1 30.2 NA -0.7 0.9 -0.3 14.3 100 100 0 10.4 NA NA 3.9 NA 1.5 -10.1 -8 -14<br />
Mexico 0.6 28 22.7 4.1 23.8 -0.4 -2.0 -0.2 -6.3 -17 -18 -15 13.2 2.7 6.9 3.4 0.6 5.2 1.9 2 -1<br />
Peru 0.1 6 49.3 -12.5 15.0 -4.7 -10.1 -3.8 -16.5 0 0 100 19.2 NA NA NA 1.3 9.0 1.9 57 1<br />
AC Europe 31.0 721 10.0 9.9 8.9 -1.3 -1.9 -1.4 -2.1 -41 -37 -15 10.8 1.9 6.7 4.0 1.2 0.9 -6.8 -11 -11<br />
Austria 0.2 16 9.6 9.8 9.9 -0.1 -1.3 -0.5 -1.4 -38 -25 13 9.1 1.4 5.6 3.3 0.9 1.0 -4.5 -23 -13<br />
Belgium 0.5 22 2.0 12.9 7.9 -3.5 -8.4 -3.1 -8.4 -14 -5 -27 10.0 1.8 7.2 4.5 1.3 0.3 -9.5 -29 -13<br />
Denmark 0.4 23 15.6 14.0 17.5 0.3 -0.6 0.1 -0.5 -36 -50 -14 13.4 2.5 8.8 1.9 0.8 3.3 0.5 -5 -8<br />
Finland 0.8 23 -6.1 7.5 6.0 -0.1 1.1 -0.8 0.3 -30 -30 -26 13.5 2.9 8.0 3.4 2.2 3.7 4.6 16 -6<br />
France 4.4 74 13.6 9.5 6.4 -0.7 -1.9 -0.9 -2.3 -57 -58 -28 10.5 1.6 5.9 4.1 1.6 0.9 -8.6 -15 -13<br />
Germany 3.9 61 9.2 12.1 8.3 -0.3 -1.3 -0.5 -1.4 -58 -33 -16 11.0 1.7 5.8 3.5 1.3 2.0 -8.8 -1 -13<br />
Greece 0.3 15 13.7 17.7 21.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.8 -47 -7 -20 11.0 2.2 7.3 4.5 0.5 -1.1 -11.3 -8 -16<br />
Ireland 0.3 14 7.1 7.6 7.1 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -2.0 -57 -71 -21 8.4 1.4 7.8 4.9 1.2 0.1 -0.6 -34 -4<br />
Italy 1.7 40 11.1 9.8 6.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -44 -28 -28 10.0 1.6 5.3 5.3 1.6 0.5 -8.9 -20 -11<br />
Netherlands 1.2 24 2.4 10.2 6.6 -0.3 -1.5 -0.3 -1.3 -63 -63 -25 10.4 1.8 6.6 4.2 1.6 -0.2 -7.1 -11 -13<br />
Norway 0.4 22 4.8 12.0 9.6 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -45 -27 -9 10.4 1.9 4.8 4.1 1.1 0.6 -8.0 -14 -18<br />
Portugal 0.2 11 7.6 11.3 7.7 -0.6 -2.0 -0.8 -2.7 -45 -45 -36 13.4 2.4 8.9 4.4 1.7 0.9 -8.9 -9 -12<br />
Spain 1.7 31 13.1 12.8 8.1 0.1 -0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -77 -71 0 10.5 2.0 7.3 4.9 1.3 1.5 -9.3 -10 -14<br />
Sweden 1.0 48 5.3 8.4 6.4 -1.5 -4.2 -1.9 -4.4 -67 -62 -24 10.7 2.0 7.1 4.8 1.7 0.8 -2.3 -20 -12<br />
Switzerland 2.9 39 33.5 11.2 11.9 -1.1 -3.0 -1.2 -3.1 -50 -55 -13 12.0 2.4 8.8 3.1 1.0 -0.3 -7.3 -19 -11<br />
UK 9.5 156 5.7 8.3 9.8 -0.2 -1.6 -0.1 -1.6 -40 -42 -10 10.9 2.0 7.3 4.3 1.1 0.1 -4.8 -9 -9<br />
Czech Rep. 0.1 7 18.6 8.7 18.9 0.1 0.6 -0.7 -1.6 -33 17 17 14.4 3.6 9.0 4.1 0.8 2.6 -2.3 15 -9<br />
Hungary 0.1 4 10.2 6.4 7.3 0.5 0.8 -0.3 -0.8 50 25 0 9.9 2.1 6.0 3.5 1.4 7.2 -1.2 1 -7<br />
Poland 0.2 28 6.3 9.2 19.6 2.1 -3.8 -0.2 -6.8 -19 -38 -4 10.9 1.1 5.8 4.5 0.6 4.3 -3.9 -13 -11<br />
Russia 1.1 32 13.5 6.8 13.4 -0.1 2.1 -0.3 1.0 52 67 -10 10.0 1.4 6.5 1.7 0.7 4.1 -12.4 14 -11<br />
Turkey 0.2 31 8.1 18.4 11.3 -1.5 1.3 1.3 3.6 17 27 -3 8.2 1.7 4.9 4.8 0.7 3.1 -13.9 1 -20<br />
Israel 0.3 32 13.1 29.1 14.6 -0.8 -1.9 1.2 -1.8 -5 -14 19 12.2 2.0 9.8 4.4 0.8 2.0 -5.0 6 -7<br />
Egypt 0.1 17 10.3 15.0 15.0 0.7 4.9 -3.9 -0.7 -17 -8 27 15.2 NA 8.5 2.7 1.0 -1.6 -8.2 40 -5<br />
South Africa 0.7 50 21.6 17.7 11.4 0.3 0.1 0.8 1.9 -32 -22 2 10.4 2.4 6.7 4.0 0.9 2.1 -0.4 3 -3<br />
Note : Above table is as of Feb. 13, 2008.<br />
Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 7
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Table 2. Earnings & Valuation / Performance : MSCI AC Asia Pacific ex. Japan<br />
Country Weight # Co's EPS G (%) EPS Change (%) ERR - 12MF 12-month Forward Valuation Performance<br />
08E 09E LT(5Y) 2008E 2009E 02/13 1W 1M PER PBR EV/EBITDA DY PEG 1W 1M 12M YTD<br />
(%) (YoY) (YoY) Forcast 1W 1M 1W 1M (%) (%) (%) (x) (x) (x) (%) (x) (%) (%) (%) (%)<br />
Market 100.0 744 8.6 14.6 17.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.4 -24 -22 1 13.1 2.1 9.7 3.3 0.8 -2.2 -10.5 7 -14<br />
Energy 8.2 40 19.3 12.1 17.7 0.7 3.7 0.5 4.0 31 13 18 13.4 2.7 7.8 2.6 0.8 -1.7 -15.5 48 -16<br />
Materials 13.1 77 6.6 12.8 9.4 -0.1 1.4 1.3 4.7 -19 -33 5 11.3 2.3 6.5 2.9 1.2 0.2 -7.8 28 -10<br />
Chemicals 2.0 21 8.1 -4.7 9.2 0.7 0.1 0.7 -0.2 -20 -40 5 10.8 1.9 10.6 5.2 1.2 2.0 -11.4 29 -12<br />
Metals & Mining 9.7 33 6.1 16.7 7.9 -0.5 1.8 1.4 6.6 -6 -25 -9 11.2 2.3 5.8 2.3 1.4 0.1 -6.4 37 -9<br />
Paper & Forest Products 0.1 4 29.2 37.6 30.2 0.4 -3.1 0.3 -4.5 -100 -100 0 11.8 1.8 9.4 2.6 0.4 -3.4 -26.5 -35 -36<br />
Industrials 12.0 137 1.9 21.1 24.6 -0.3 0.0 -0.4 -1.5 -28 -24 -6 14.6 2.1 8.6 2.5 0.6 -2.0 -13.4 17 -16<br />
Building Products 0.1 2 20.8 19.8 6.3 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -1.0 -50 50 -50 16.8 1.5 10.5 1.3 2.7 8.8 -11.5 57 -12<br />
Construction & Engineering 2.4 18 21.2 27.0 34.7 1.1 2.5 0.1 -1.5 22 -11 -6 17.6 3.4 10.7 1.6 0.5 -6.1 -18.4 63 -18<br />
Electrical Equipment 0.7 11 23.8 25.9 37.7 -0.6 -3.5 -0.9 -2.1 -27 -55 -18 16.9 2.6 11.4 1.5 0.4 -1.7 -16.1 34 -19<br />
Machinery 1.5 14 37.3 29.6 50.3 -0.8 -1.4 -1.2 -2.0 -71 -14 -36 9.8 2.6 6.7 1.7 0.2 -1.5 -16.8 43 -22<br />
Trading Companies & Distrib 0.4 6 4.4 20.3 33.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.2 20 -20 -40 19.2 1.8 13.7 1.2 0.6 -4.6 -13.8 44 -23<br />
Commercial Services & Supp 0.5 4 9.1 12.4 12.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 0.8 -25 -75 50 15.8 5.4 8.6 3.8 1.3 -5.8 -4.9 -29 -15<br />
Airlines 0.8 13 35.8 12.5 0.9 -1.2 -0.9 -2.0 -3.8 -15 15 -46 11.7 1.4 6.5 3.8 12.4 0.2 -9.9 8 -15<br />
Marine 1.0 18 -10.2 13.6 22.8 0.3 -2.8 -0.8 -7.4 -76 -65 35 9.2 1.6 6.2 3.9 0.4 2.9 -9.0 44 -11<br />
Road & Rail 0.4 5 -3.8 17.7 6.0 -0.1 2.6 -0.1 -1.3 -20 -20 -20 19.8 1.7 11.5 4.4 3.3 -2.6 -10.1 -6 -11<br />
Consumer Discretionary 5.6 83 16.7 15.7 21.6 0.8 0.1 0.5 -0.3 -16 -16 6 13.1 1.9 8.5 3.2 0.6 -2.3 -8.0 -4 -13<br />
Auto Components 0.3 5 11.5 8.5 17.2 -0.7 -3.0 -0.5 -2.5 -60 -60 -40 8.6 1.4 6.3 2.3 0.5 -3.1 -10.8 1 -15<br />
Automobiles 1.1 15 24.5 16.8 14.2 1.7 0.6 0.8 -0.2 14 14 71 10.1 1.2 6.3 2.0 0.7 -3.9 -6.6 -1 -9<br />
Household Durables 0.4 7 52.6 9.2 67.4 1.9 4.8 1.2 2.1 0 0 20 8.5 1.6 7.0 1.8 0.1 -4.6 -6.3 17 -11<br />
Textiles, Apparel & Luxury G 0.3 9 17.4 31.9 15.3 -2.4 -4.2 -1.4 -3.2 -57 -43 0 10.8 1.5 7.5 3.2 0.7 -3.4 -10.8 -19 -19<br />
Hotels, Restaurants & Leisur 1.3 16 1.7 12.0 13.6 0.7 -0.6 0.2 -1.1 -25 -25 -31 17.0 2.3 9.4 4.2 1.2 -1.4 -7.1 -13 -10<br />
Media 0.5 12 7.5 17.7 14.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 -9 -9 18 16.0 2.1 9.7 5.3 1.1 0.3 -7.0 -12 -10<br />
Retailing 1.5 15 12.5 18.5 23.9 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0 -7 -7 17.6 3.4 11.5 2.9 0.7 -1.8 -9.1 11 -18<br />
Consumer Staples 5.1 47 1.9 16.3 14.4 0.8 1.0 1.1 2.3 -5 -5 -16 17.6 3.1 11.3 3.3 1.2 -0.8 -9.1 13 -10<br />
Food & Staples Retailing 2.2 8 5.2 19.6 10.1 0.8 -1.2 1.7 1.9 -71 -57 -14 18.5 2.9 10.9 3.6 1.8 -1.7 -10.7 7 -14<br />
Food, Beverage & Tobacco 2.5 33 -2.5 13.7 17.6 1.0 3.5 0.9 3.5 13 6 -15 16.5 3.0 11.4 3.1 0.9 0.3 -6.8 19 -5<br />
Household & Personal Produ 0.4 6 19.7 17.3 19.5 -0.8 -1.4 -0.9 -1.6 -20 0 -20 20.7 6.6 14.8 2.6 1.1 -2.7 -13.2 12 -11<br />
Health Care 1.2 15 21.2 20.0 19.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 27 27 27 19.4 4.4 13.5 2.0 1.0 -4.6 -9.0 12 -12<br />
Biotechnology 0.5 1 26 29.3 23.1 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.4 100 -100 -100 22.3 7.6 15.4 1.5 1.0 -4.8 -7.3 40 -9<br />
Pharmaceuticals 0.3 8 18.3 14.4 17.4 1.0 -0.8 0.3 -1.5 13 13 38 16.1 3.0 12.2 1.2 0.9 -4.0 -11.7 -1 -16<br />
Financials 33.1 186 9.3 13.8 17.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 -34 -24 3 12.7 1.8 16.0 4.0 0.7 -3.2 -12.3 -4 -16<br />
Banks 17.1 70 15.9 11.9 13.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.2 -21 -17 -3 11.2 1.7 18.4 4.8 0.9 -4.3 -10.8 -8 -14<br />
Capital Markets 1.2 14 1.2 10.2 15.4 -0.8 -3.5 -0.5 -2.2 -83 -67 0 9.5 1.4 11.3 4.6 0.6 -6.8 -17.0 -4 -24<br />
Insurance 4.1 15 -3.4 12.9 19.5 -1.0 -0.1 -0.4 1.4 -87 -47 -27 14.2 2.4 8.5 3.8 0.7 -3.0 -14.8 -7 -20<br />
Information Technology 11.2 93 17.1 16.2 18.3 0.1 -4.6 -0.2 -3.7 -51 -52 -6 11.4 1.8 5.6 3.2 0.6 -3.6 -3.9 -11 -14<br />
Internet Software & Service 0.6 4 45.7 32.7 42.5 0.6 2.2 0.2 0.9 100 100 50 28.8 9.7 20.6 0.5 0.7 -4.0 -15.4 60 -16<br />
IT Services 1.1 7 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 4.5 11.5 1.5 NA 2.0 -4.4 -28 -14<br />
Software 0.0 1 36.1 33.9 2.0 -0.3 -3.2 -0.3 -1.5 -100 -100 100 13.3 1.7 7.5 NA 6.6 -5.6 -7.2 -19 -11<br />
Communications Equipment 0.2 5 17.0 20.9 14.7 0.1 -3.1 0.0 -2.2 -100 -100 -60 10.3 2.1 7.1 4.5 0.7 -5.6 -17.5 -34 -27<br />
Computers & Peripherals 1.5 21 13.7 17.3 22.1 0.9 -3.7 0.8 -5.3 -68 -79 -47 9.4 1.8 6.5 5.0 0.4 -3.0 -10.3 -13 -22<br />
Electronic Equip. & Instr. 2.4 26 41.7 3.1 24.9 1.3 1.2 -0.4 -3.2 -43 -43 14 8.4 1.5 4.3 3.0 0.3 -3.6 -10.0 -5 -21<br />
Office Electronics 0.0 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA -1.8 -3.2 -19 -9<br />
Semiconductors 5.4 28 4.8 25.1 12.9 -0.9 -9.3 -0.3 -3.9 -63 -58 -21 12.6 1.5 5.3 3.3 1.0 -4.8 3.4 -11 -7<br />
Telecom. Services 7.6 30 -4.5 13.4 17.6 -0.1 -1.1 -0.2 -1.2 -24 -21 3 15.7 2.9 6.9 3.4 0.9 -0.3 -9.1 29 -10<br />
Diversified Telecom. Service 3.3 17 6.2 8.1 8.6 0.4 -0.8 0.3 -1.0 0 6 25 14.2 2.4 6.4 4.4 1.7 2.5 -3.5 13 -3<br />
Wireless Telecom. Services 4.4 13 -12.1 18.0 23.5 -0.4 -1.3 -0.6 -1.3 -54 -54 -23 17.0 3.4 7.3 2.8 0.7 -2.4 -12.8 45 -15<br />
Utilities 3.0 36 1.2 4.5 7.3 -1.2 -2.5 -1.8 -3.3 -33 -18 -6 14.6 1.4 9.8 3.2 2.0 -3.9 -10.5 7 -11<br />
Electric Utilities 1.4 10 -0.1 -0.8 2.2 -2.5 -3.1 -3.2 -3.8 -30 -20 20 13.8 1.1 9.9 3.4 6.4 -5.5 -7.2 5 -5<br />
Gas Utilities 0.7 7 -5.0 10.6 13.9 1.4 1.6 0.6 1.2 33 33 0 19.2 3.4 13.7 2.2 1.4 -0.8 -9.4 37 -12<br />
Note : Above table is as of Feb. 13, 2008.<br />
Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 8
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Table 3. FY08 Forecast Earnings Change (1M)<br />
<strong>AP</strong> ex JP Australia China Hong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia New Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand<br />
Kong Zealand<br />
Market -0.1 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.7 3.7 -2.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.6 -1.0 -6.1 0.9<br />
Energy 3.7 2.6 3.8 NA 2.3 29.5 -6.9 -7.5 0.7 NA 0.8 0.8 0.0 3.2<br />
Materials 1.4 4.7 -0.6 -1.6 2.9 0.2 -2.0 -1.9 -0.3 -0.9 NA NA -0.3 -5.9<br />
Industrials 0.0 -1.0 0.9 -0.7 0.7 -12.8 -0.6 0.2 -0.9 -1.3 0.0 -2.6 -7.7 -8.8<br />
Consumer Discretionary 0.1 -3.2 0.9 0.4 -0.2 5.8 -3.3 -0.2 1.2 1.5 -3.9 1.7 -9.4 2.2<br />
Consumer Staples 1.0 0.6 3.1 0.9 0.1 4.7 -2.2 -1.3 2.4 NA -5.9 3.8 26.1 -2.1<br />
Health Care 0.9 -0.2 NA NA 0.8 0.6 -2.3 -3.7 NA 0.3 NA -0.3 NA NA<br />
Financials 0.2 -0.6 0.9 1.2 1.9 -0.4 -3.3 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 -0.7 -1.1 -4.6 1.0<br />
I T -4.6 -1.1 -8.7 -1.9 -1.1 NA -4.4 0.9 0.0 NA NA -1.4 -8.7 -1.3<br />
Telecom. Services -1.1 -2.3 0.1 0.9 -1.3 -1.0 1.1 -5.9 -1.1 -1.2 -0.4 0.2 -7.2 0.6<br />
Utilities -2.5 0.7 -3.1 -0.1 -6.1 -2.3 -3.8 -7.6 0.5 -0.5 0.5 NA NA 0.4<br />
Note : Above table is as of Feb. 13, 2008.<br />
Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Table 4. 12-month Forward P/E<br />
<strong>AP</strong> ex JP Australia China Hong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia New Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand<br />
Kong Zealand<br />
Market 13.1 12.7 15.1 17.4 18.0 14.7 13.1 10.5 15.3 12.7 13.9 12.7 11.1 11.2<br />
Energy 13.4 16.6 12.8 NA 17.3 20.2 11.0 7.7 14.1 NA 7.0 6.3 10.0 10.1<br />
Materials 11.3 12.0 13.8 9.1 9.5 12.6 10.2 10.0 16.2 8.9 NA NA 10.3 10.1<br />
Industrials 14.6 17.1 16.2 16.3 24.3 17.2 11.9 12.0 16.3 28.4 15.2 12.4 13.1 11.6<br />
Consumer Discretionary 13.1 14.8 16.7 18.9 12.5 13.7 11.8 8.8 17.2 13.8 16.1 14.6 13.7 18.8<br />
Consumer Staples 17.6 17.3 15.9 31.1 19.9 16.6 20.6 16.8 20.1 NA 14.5 22.4 17.7 14.6<br />
Health Care 19.4 20.8 NA NA 16.6 11.7 15.0 16.9 NA 24.6 NA 24.3 NA NA<br />
Financials 12.7 11.1 14.2 17.8 23.5 12.8 12.6 8.3 13.4 15.8 15.3 11.9 13.5 12.3<br />
I T 11.4 14.5 17.9 14.6 15.5 NA 15.2 11.5 11.2 NA NA 7.7 10.5 7.0<br />
Telecom. Services 15.7 15.3 18.7 20.2 18.6 13.2 14.4 10.2 16.1 10.8 13.7 15.3 12.7 17.2<br />
Utilities 14.6 14.1 14.2 16.7 20.9 14.3 25.1 11.1 12.8 16.8 10.6 NA NA 8.5<br />
Note : Above table is as of Feb. 13, 2008.<br />
Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Table 5. Performance (1M)<br />
<strong>AP</strong> ex JP Australia China Hong India Indonesia Japan Korea Malaysia New Philippines Singapore Taiwan Thailand<br />
Kong Zealand<br />
Market -10.5 -7.7 -16.6 -13.3 -20.7 -5.0 -6.9 -7.3 -6.0 -8.9 -8.2 -9.8 -5.1 5.6<br />
Energy -15.5 -8.3 -18.7 NA -23.7 11.0 -14.3 -26.2 -7.5 NA 0.0 -17.3 -18.1 1.8<br />
Materials -7.8 -2.1 -24.2 -37.7 -21.5 -11.0 -16.8 -7.6 -8.3 -17.3 NA NA -10.0 -2.8<br />
Industrials -13.4 -3.8 -14.8 -13.0 -23.4 -0.6 -3.8 -16.3 -7.8 -2.2 -14.7 -14.2 -3.2 4.3<br />
Consumer Discretionary -8.0 -7.0 -18.8 -5.1 -15.3 -12.4 -5.5 -5.7 -3.9 -7.2 0.0 -6.7 -7.9 10.4<br />
Consumer Staples -9.1 -10.0 -12.5 -13.5 -12.7 -10.9 -5.1 -7.0 -3.5 NA -13.2 -17.4 1.8 9.2<br />
Health Care -9.0 -7.8 NA NA -13.2 -7.1 -7.7 -5.4 NA -15.8 NA -8.0 NA NA<br />
Financials -12.3 -11.3 -17.5 -16.3 -21.6 -10.0 -6.8 -8.8 -7.1 -5.9 -10.6 -10.4 8.2 12.9<br />
I T -3.9 -7.7 -8.3 -18.3 -3.9 NA -9.7 6.7 -2.7 NA NA -12.3 -7.6 2.2<br />
Telecom. Services -9.1 1.6 -13.2 -4.9 -30.0 -3.8 -5.0 -5.4 -5.7 -5.5 -3.1 -0.5 1.5 10.4<br />
Utilities -10.5 -9.3 -13.9 0.1 -31.8 -18.6 3.8 -5.5 -4.2 -8.5 -5.8 NA NA -0.6<br />
Note : Above table is as of Feb. 13, 2008.<br />
Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 9
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Table 6. Asia Pacific Company Map : Top and Bottom of 1M EPS Change & 1M Performance<br />
Energy Materials Industrials Consumer Consumer Health Financials IT Telecomm. Utilities<br />
Discretionary Staples Care Services<br />
Australia WorleyParsons Newcrest Mining Leighton Holdings Pacific Brands Goodman Fielder Ansell Bendigo Bank AGL Energy<br />
1.3 / -6.5 9.9 / 6.8 0.7 / 3.3 0.1 / -2.2 0.0 / 2.6 1.2 / 6.5 0.7 / -11.6 0.4 / 3.1<br />
Paladin Energy Alumina Asciano Group Crown Futuris Cochlear Perpetual Computershare Telstra<br />
-11.2 / 10.4 -27.0 / -1.6 -3.4 / -4.7 -4.4 / 1.9 -2.0 / -8.4 -1.1 / -13.3 -4.1 / -10.1 -0.9 / 5.7 -0.2 / 4.5<br />
China Inner Mongolia Yita China Molybdenum China Eastern Airlin Dongfeng Motor Gr Global Bio-Chem Te China Insurance InteLenovo Group China Communicati China Resources P<br />
50.1 / -2.9 1.1 / -2.0 154.2 / 7.0 2.7 / 2.4 7.6 / 9.1 8.6 / 3.3 6.9 / 5.9 2.5 / 0.3 0.9 / -4.9<br />
China Petroleum & Shougang Concord Citic Resources HoldFU JI Food & CaterinChina Mengniu Dair Bank of China ZTE CORP H China Telecom Guangdong Electri<br />
-1.0 / -1.4 -10.1 / -1.0 -16.2 / 4.7 -8.7 / -5.8 -1.4 / -2.4 -4.7 / -2.8 -0.2 / -0.2 -0.7 / 2.5 -2.8 / -1.6<br />
Hong Fosun International Melco International Lifestyle Internation Hang Lung PropertieKingboard Chemica PCCW Hong Kong & Chin<br />
Kong 0.0 / -6.6 12.2 / 3.3 3.1 / 2.1 4.1 / 1.1 0.7 / -0.8 1.4 / -0.4 0.6 / 2.6<br />
Lee & Man Paper MHutchison Whampo Yue Yuen Industrial Chinese Estates (HoFoxconn Internation Hutchison TelecommHongKong Electric<br />
-4.5 / -5.5 -2.3 / -1.9 -4.1 / -3.6 -5.9 / -1.6 -2.1 / -7.6 -1.5 / -1.8 0.0 / 0.1<br />
Indonesia Bumi Resources Indocement TunggaUnited Tractors Astra International Astra Agro Lestari Kalbe Farma Bank Danamon Ind Indosat<br />
-2.3 / -0.7 5.3 / -0.7 8.7 / -2.7 5.7 / -0.4 4.3 / -5.4 0.1 / 0.0 0.7 / -0.7 -0.2 / 1.4<br />
Energi Mega PersadInternational Nickel Truba Alam Manun Ramayana Lestari S Gudang Garam Bank Mandiri (Perse Telekomunikasi Ind Perusahaan Gas N<br />
-21.7 / -4.5 -0.2 / 4.1 -21.7 / -3.2 0.8 / 1.4 0.0 / -0.6 -1.0 / -2.3 -0.4 / 1.5 -0.6 / -2.0<br />
India Cairn India Jindal Steel & Powe Jaiprakash Associat Indian Hotels ITC Sun Pharmaceutical Infrastructure Devel HCL Technologies Mahanagar TelephoGAIL (India)<br />
33.9 / -1.7 15.9 / -13.6 4.1 / -26.9 2.6 / -13.1 0.7 / -1.9 14.7 / -0.2 7.9 / -13.9 0.7 / -4.7 1.4 / -6.7 2.9 / -8.7<br />
Bharat Petroleum Sterlite Industries (InGMR Infrastructure Bajaj Auto United Spirits Dr. Reddy's LaboratIndiabulls Financial SWipro Videsh Sanchar Nig Tata Power<br />
-1.6 / -2.4 -7.9 / -7.2 -12.1 / -16.5 -2.4 / -13.6 -5.6 / -6.9 -10.3 / -4.2 -4.4 / -5.4 -3.2 / -3.5 -4.3 / -7.1 -6.1 / -14.8<br />
Japan Japan Petroleum Ex Sumitomo Osaka C Odakyu Electric Rai Sanyo Electric Sapporo Holdings Taisho Pharmaceuti Acom Konami Nippon Telegraph &The Chugoku Elect<br />
0.0 / 3.0 2.6 / 2.1 10.8 / -1.6 184.4 / 6.6 13.5 / -4.9 11.6 / -0.2 15.0 / 4.5 3.2 / 2.2 2.5 / -0.4 0.1 / 2.7<br />
TonenGeneral SekiyMitsubishi Rayon Ebara Sega Sammy HoldinHouse Foods Chugai Pharmaceut Orix Advantest Softbank Hokuriku Electric P<br />
-25.8 / 0.6 -30.4 / -4.1 -11.0 / -9.8 -97.3 / -25.9 -9.6 / -1.4 -32.8 / 2.6 -16.4 / -9.7 -44.7 / -4.5 -8.0 / 4.7 -14.3 / 4.0<br />
Korea GS Holdings Honam PetrochemicKumho Industrial LG Electronics CJ CheilJedang Yuhan Mirae Asset Securit LG Philips LCD KT Korea Gas<br />
-0.9 / -9.4 1.1 / 0.6 6.7 / -2.1 13.1 / -5.1 4.1 / 0.7 -3.4 / -1.8 1.0 / -7.9 8.4 / 2.1 -1.5 / 0.4 6.5 / -5.8<br />
SK Energy Samsung Fine ChemDoosan Kia Motors Amorepacific Corp. Hanmi Pharmaceuti Korean ReinsuranceHynix SemiconductoLG TeleCom Korea Electric Pow<br />
-15.8 / -11.8 -6.7 / -5.6 -16.0 / 0.0 -20.8 / -2.6 -3.2 / -5.3 -4.0 / 6.0 -9.5 / -6.5 -42.3 / -1.0 -6.8 / 0.4 -5.3 / -4.5<br />
Malaysia Petronas Dagangan Lafarge Malayan CeMalaysian Airline SyUMW Holdings Bhd Kuala Lumpur Kepo Multi-Purpose Holdi DiGi.com Bhd Petronas Gas Bhd<br />
0.0 / 1.2 0.3 / 0.9 7.3 / 1.8 0.2 / -0.7 2.8 / 3.9 26.4 / -2.3 0.1 / 2.1 1.9 / 0.0<br />
Scomi Group Bhd Malaysian Bulk Car Astro All Asia Netw Guinness Anchor Bh Bursa Malaysia Bhd Telekom Malaysia BYTL Corp. Bhd<br />
-1.2 / 2.3 -5.7 / 1.0 -16.5 / 3.6 -0.3 / 0.0 -6.9 / -2.3 -0.5 / 1.8 -1.9 / 1.9<br />
New Sky Network Televi Fisher & Paykel Hea Contact Energy<br />
Zealand 0.2 / -1.0 0.8 / -5.0 0.0 / -3.3<br />
Fletcher Building Auckland Internatio Fisher & Paykel App Telecom Corp. of N Vector<br />
-0.5 / -9.7 -0.7 / -2.2 -0.9 / -5.5 -3.8 / -3.2 -1.6 / 0.0<br />
Philippines Petron Ayala Land Philippine Long Dist First Philippine Hold<br />
1.2 / 0.0 0.5 / 1.9 0.2 / 0.3 5.9 / 1.0<br />
Jollibee Foods San Miguel Metropolitan Bank Globe Telecom PNOC Energy Deve<br />
-1.7 / 4.2 -5.9 / -0.9 -5.6 / -1.2 -0.5 / -1.9 -0.4 / 1.7<br />
Singapore Singapore Petroleum SembCorp Marine Genting Internation Olam International Parkway Holdings CapitaLand Singapore Telecomm<br />
0.3 / -4.9 1.5 / 5.5 2.4 / 2.5 0.0 / -1.5 1.3 / -1.7 2.6 / 3.2 0.4 / 5.7<br />
Singapore Airlines Jardine Cycle & Car Wilmar Internationa UOL Group Venture<br />
-6.5 / 0.4 -0.6 / 2.9 -1.2 / 1.7 -28.0 / 1.6 -0.8 / -2.7<br />
Thailand Banpu PTT Chemical Airports of Thailand BEC World CP ALL Thanachart Capital Hana Microelectron Ratchaburi Electric<br />
7.3 / 6.3 1.8 / 5.9 18.9 / -1.8 0.6 / 0.0 -0.1 / 0.9 3.1 / 9.9 0.4 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.6<br />
PTT Aromatics & ReSiam Cement Precious Shipping Siam Makro TMB Bank Advanced Info Servi Glow Energy<br />
-2.2 / 2.6 -8.4 / 0.9 -3.8 / 13.2 -0.3 / -0.5 -13.9 / 3.2 -2.1 / 13.2 0.1 / 0.8<br />
Taiwan Eternal Chemical Evergreen Marine CFar Eastern Departm Polaris Securities AU Optronics Far EasTone Teleco<br />
2.9 / -0.3 61.6 / 0.6 4.1 / 2.1 10.9 / -1.5 7.1 / -0.9 -0.5 / 1.4<br />
Taiwan Cement Walsin Lihwa Yulon Motor President Chain Sto Taishin Financial Ho Powerchip Semicon Taiwan Mobile<br />
-3.1 / 4.3 -12.2 / -3.2 -3.8 / 1.3 -0.1 / 4.1 -28.5 / -4.7 -147.3 / -4.2 -4.1 / 0.0<br />
Note : Above table is as of Feb. 13, 2008.<br />
Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 10
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Asia Pacific Country & Sector Rating for February<br />
Young Jean Hwang<br />
82-2-3774-1780 / YoungJean@miraeasset.com<br />
Table 1. Asia Pacific Country Rating for February<br />
Asia Pacific Country Rating by Median Z-score of 6 Criteria<br />
India<br />
13-Country Rank's Z-score<br />
30%<br />
40%<br />
-0.5 0<br />
Negative Neutral<br />
Indonesia<br />
China<br />
Hong Kong<br />
Singapore<br />
Thailand<br />
Philippines<br />
Korea<br />
Malaysia<br />
New Zealand<br />
Taiwan<br />
Japan<br />
Australia<br />
30%<br />
0.5<br />
Positive<br />
Positive<br />
Momentum 1 Momentum 2 Growth Profitability Valuation Liquidity<br />
(Breadth) (Magnitude)<br />
12m Fw. EPS Wtd. Avg. of Wtd. Avg. of Wtd. Avg. of Median Z-score of Money Supply Growth<br />
Monthly FY08 & FY09 EPS FY08 & FY09 EPS FY08 & FY09 12m Fw. P/E, P/B, less Target Policy Rate<br />
Revision Ratio Monthly Change Growth (YoY) ROE EV/EBITDA (Distance from<br />
(13 Countries Rank) (13 Countries Rank) (13 Countries Rank) (13 Countries Rank) (13 Countries Rank) Median since 2000)<br />
Positive Positive Positive Positive Negative Positive<br />
Z-score (1.00) 0.92 1.00 1.33 1.00 -4.41 3.66<br />
Positive<br />
Positive Neutral Neutral Positive Negative Positive<br />
Z-score (0.97) 1.91 -0.13 0.02 4.24 -1.00 2.27<br />
Positive<br />
Positive Positive Positive Positive Negative Negative<br />
Z-score (0.71) 0.78 1.91 1.39 0.63 -1.69 -0.60<br />
Positive<br />
Positive Positive Neutral Negative Negative Positive<br />
Z-score (0.65) 1.02 1.71 0.27 -2.97 -3.63 5.56<br />
Neutral<br />
Positive Neutral Negative Negative Positive Positive<br />
Z-score (0.29) 1.24 0.00 -1.86 -1.20 0.57 3.62<br />
Neutral<br />
Neutral Neutral Neutral Positive Positive Negative<br />
Z-score (0.03) 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.52 1.03 -2.71<br />
Neutral<br />
Neutral Neutral Neutral Negative Neutral Negative<br />
Z-score (-0.20) -0.15 0.35 0.32 -0.57 -0.26 -0.88<br />
Neutral<br />
Negative Negative Neutral Negative Positive Positive<br />
Z-score (-0.35) -1.00 -1.06 0.30 -1.28 1.84 1.02<br />
Neutral<br />
Neutral Positive Negative Negative Neutral Neutral<br />
Z-score (-0.35) 0.19 2.82 -3.58 -0.99 -0.28 -0.43<br />
Neutral<br />
Negative Neutral Negative Neutral Neutral Negative<br />
Z-score (-0.45) -1.16 -0.02 -2.39 0.00 0.00 -0.87<br />
Negative<br />
Negative Negative Neutral Neutral Positive Negative<br />
Z-score (-0.51) -0.90 -1.59 -0.12 0.01 1.00 -3.84<br />
Negative<br />
Negative Neutral Negative Negative Neutral Positive<br />
Z-score (-0.62) -1.01 -0.23 -1.03 -3.45 0.23 0.80<br />
Negative<br />
Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Negative Negative Negative Positive Negative Positive<br />
Z-score (-0.91) -1.03 -1.67 -1.00 1.00 -0.82 4.23<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 11
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Table 2. Asia Pacific ex. Japan Sector Rating for February<br />
Asia Pacific ex. Japan Sector Rating by Median Z-score of 5 Criteria<br />
30%<br />
21-Sector Rank's Z-score<br />
40%<br />
-0.5 0<br />
Negative Neutral<br />
30%<br />
0.5<br />
Positive<br />
Momentum 1 Momentum 2 Growth Profitability Valuation<br />
(Breadth) (Magnitude)<br />
12m Fw. EPS Wtd. Avg. of Wtd. Avg. of Wtd. Avg. of Median Z-score of<br />
Monthly FY08 & FY09 EPS FY08 & FY09 EPS FY08 & FY09 12m Fw. P/E, P/B,<br />
Revision Ratio Monthly Change Growth (YoY) ROE EV/EBITDA<br />
(21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank)<br />
Internet Software<br />
& Services Positive Positive Positive Positive Negative<br />
Z-score (3.39) 4.20 1.73 3.39 8.61 -7.12<br />
Household Durables<br />
Positive Positive Positive Positive Neutral<br />
Z-score (2.14) 2.38 2.14 5.23 0.63 0.29<br />
Electronic Equipment<br />
& Instruments Neutral Positive Positive Neutral Positive<br />
Z-score (1.15) -0.30 2.18 2.94 0.03 1.15<br />
Marine<br />
Automobiles<br />
Airlines<br />
Energy<br />
Machinery<br />
Pharmaceuticals<br />
Positive Positive Positive Neutral Positive<br />
Z-score (0.86) 1.00 0.86 0.86 0.41 1.00<br />
Positive Neutral Positive Negative Positive<br />
Z-score (0.71) 2.11 0.00 0.72 -3.03 0.71<br />
Negative Positive Positive Negative Positive<br />
Z-score (0.63) -2.01 0.86 1.89 -2.94 0.63<br />
Positive Positive Neutral Positive Negative<br />
Z-score (0.58) 1.97 1.44 0.49 0.58 -0.79<br />
Neutral<br />
Neutral Negative Positive Positive Neutral<br />
Z-score (0.43) -0.44 -1.39 2.62 4.18 0.43<br />
Neutral<br />
Positive Negative Neutral Neutral Negative<br />
Z-score (0.12) 1.16 -1.14 0.15 0.12 -1.94<br />
Construction<br />
& Engineering<br />
Neutral<br />
Neutral Neutral Positive Neutral Negative<br />
Z-score (0.08) 0.08 -0.07 1.19 0.15 -2.62<br />
Banks<br />
Positive<br />
Positive<br />
Positive<br />
Positive<br />
Positive<br />
Positive<br />
Positive<br />
Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Neutral<br />
Neutral Positive Neutral Negative Neutral<br />
Z-score (0.00) 0.00 1.00 0.00 -1.36 -0.14<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 12
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Table 2. Asia Pacific ex. Japan Sector Rating for February (Continued)<br />
Asia Pacific ex. Japan Sector Rating by Median Z-score of 5 Criteria<br />
30%<br />
21-Sector Rank's Z-score<br />
40%<br />
-0.5 0<br />
Negative Neutral<br />
Telecom. Services<br />
Chemicals<br />
Capital Markets<br />
Retailing<br />
Auto Components<br />
Metals & Mining<br />
Consumer Staples<br />
Utilities<br />
Insurance<br />
Semiconductors<br />
30%<br />
0.5<br />
Positive<br />
Momentum 1 Momentum 2 Growth Profitability Valuation<br />
(Breadth) (Magnitude)<br />
12m Fw. EPS Wtd. Avg. of Wtd. Avg. of Wtd. Avg. of Median Z-score of<br />
Monthly FY08 & FY09 EPS FY08 & FY09 EPS FY08 & FY09 12m Fw. P/E, P/B,<br />
Revision Ratio Monthly Change Growth (YoY) ROE EV/EBITDA<br />
(21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank) (21 Sectors Rank)<br />
Neutral<br />
Neutral Neutral Neutral Neutral Negative<br />
Z-score (-0.05) -0.25 0.13 -0.05 0.00 -1.43<br />
Neutral<br />
Positive Neutral Negative Negative Neutral<br />
Z-score (-0.13) 0.89 -0.13 -1.00 -1.44 0.01<br />
Neutral<br />
Neutral Neutral Negative Negative Neutral<br />
Z-score (-0.21) -0.21 0.12 -1.44 -1.14 0.37<br />
Neutral<br />
Positive Neutral Neutral Neutral Negative<br />
Z-score (-0.33) 1.53 -0.35 -0.33 0.33 -2.39<br />
Neutral<br />
Negative Neutral Neutral Negative Positive<br />
Z-score (-0.44) -1.44 -0.33 -0.44 -0.70 0.57<br />
Negative<br />
Negative Negative Negative Positive Neutral<br />
Z-score (-0.87) -2.03 -2.73 -0.87 2.39 0.13<br />
Negative<br />
Positive Positive Negative Negative Negative<br />
Z-score (-0.87) 0.61 1.77 -1.46 -0.87 -2.08<br />
Negative<br />
Neutral Neutral Negative Negative Negative<br />
Z-score (-0.97) -0.25 -0.31 -1.56 -4.19 -0.97<br />
Negative<br />
Neutral Negative Negative Negative Negative<br />
Z-score (-1.27) -0.37 -2.11 -1.92 -1.00 -1.27<br />
Negative<br />
Source : MSCI, I/B/E/S, FactSet, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Negative Negative Neutral Negative Positive<br />
Z-score (-1.68) -3.77 -2.04 -0.41 -1.68 0.51<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 13
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Weekly</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Pharmaceutical<br />
Key Call<br />
CSL LTD<br />
(CSL AU,BUY,TP A$42.04)<br />
Sean Hwang<br />
82-2-3774-1723 / shwang@miraeasset.com<br />
New Era for Plasma Industry<br />
New leader in newer healthcare marketplace<br />
We initiate coverage on CSL Ltd. with a BUY rating and<br />
fair value of AU$42.04, which is derived from our RIM<br />
model under the assumption of 9% cost of equity.<br />
Although this valuation appears demanding at 30.3x FY08<br />
earnings, P/E is likely to fall as low as 17.0x to FY10.<br />
CSL has established a leading position in the plasma<br />
proteins market on the back of cutting-edge fractionation<br />
technology and collecting power. Now the company is<br />
expanding its presence into the biopharmaceutical market<br />
led by its flagship product Guardasil, the cervical cancer<br />
vaccine that was licensed to Merck.<br />
Supply of plasma proteins to be tightened<br />
The global plasma product market is a competitive<br />
oligopoly, led by a few players such as CSL, Baxter, and<br />
Tarcelo. Capital-intensive fractionating facilities and<br />
difficulties in blood collection have existed as barriers to<br />
new entrants into this market. The leading companies are<br />
expected to benefit from a tight supply/demand balance<br />
for plasma proteins as a result of recent M&As in the<br />
industry.<br />
In addition, global short supply in blood can prompt further<br />
price hikes of plasma proteins and make the market share<br />
more concentrated in the companies that are vertically<br />
integrated. The company collected 4mn liters of plasma<br />
through its collection centers worldwide and obtained an<br />
additional 700,000 liters that were for sale to Talecris (5%<br />
margin). After expiration of the supply agreement at the<br />
end of 2008, CSL can internally process the plasma,<br />
formally sold to Talecris, and sell it for a greater margin<br />
(roughly 30%). In summary, the current blood shortage<br />
expands the gap between vertically integrated players<br />
such as CSL and Grifols and non-vertically integrated<br />
players such as Talecris. Liquid IVIG’s indication<br />
extension to Alzheimer (now performed by Baxter) could<br />
be an important catalyst.<br />
Expansion to biopharmaceutical encouraging<br />
CSL is the only manufacturer of influenza vaccine in the<br />
southern hemisphere and the inventor of world’s 1st<br />
cervical cancer vaccine, Guardasil. Royalty income from<br />
Merck will be the strongest contributing factor to earnings<br />
growth over the next couple of years. Expanding to<br />
various recombinant biopharmaceuticals is likely to send<br />
CSL to a new leadership position in the global<br />
pharmaceutical market.<br />
Figure 1. Residual Income Model<br />
(A$ mn) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017<br />
BVo 2,268.8<br />
BV 3,025.93,784.04,737.95,942.67,444.89,288.9 11,560.914,446.6 17,571.3<br />
ROE(%) 25.1 25.1 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.9 28.4<br />
COE(%) 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0<br />
ROE-<br />
COE<br />
16.1 16.1 19.4 19.6 19.8 19.7 19.2 18.9 19.4<br />
RI 488.6 611.0 919.41,162.81,472.91,826.7 2,221.6 2,736.8 3,412.4<br />
PV RI 448.3 514.3 709.9 823.8 957.31,089.2 1,215.3 1,373.5 1,571.1 12,056.6<br />
NAV<br />
Shr<br />
23,028.1<br />
Outstand<br />
ing<br />
547.7<br />
Fair price 42.04<br />
Source: Mirae Asset Research Estimates<br />
Figure 2. Global IVIG Market<br />
(tonnes of IVIg)<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 14<br />
140<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
0<br />
Projection<br />
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16<br />
Source: NBA, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Figure 3. Financial and Operational figures<br />
(A$ mn) 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E<br />
Sales 2,749.9 2,848.9 3,172.4 3,688.7 4,444.7<br />
EBITDA 410.5 155.3 678.2 1,002.1 1,433.1<br />
Pre-tax NP 641.9 170.5 774.1 1,071.8 1,513.8<br />
NP 546.5 117.4 539.3 760.9 1,074.8<br />
EPS 0.93 0.21 0.98 1.39 1.96<br />
YoY(%) 126.2 (76.9) 358.2 41.1 41.2<br />
P/E(x) 12.1 83.4 29.8 25.2 17.9<br />
P/B(x) 3.1 4.9 7.1 6.3 5.1<br />
EV/EBITDA 7.8 30.7 17.5 15.0 11.0<br />
ROE(%) 26.3 5.9 23.8 25.1 28.4<br />
Source: Factset, Mirae Asset Research Estimates
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Figure 4. Global Comparison<br />
CSL Grifols Novo Baxter GSK Sanofi- Green<br />
Nordisk<br />
Aventis Cross<br />
CSL-AU GRF-ES<br />
NOVO.B-<br />
DK<br />
BAX-US GSK-GB SAN-FR 006280-KR<br />
Avg Median 06/2007 12/2006 12/2006 12/2006 12/2006 12/2006 12/2006<br />
Price History<br />
Current Price 46.40 45.68 29.50 23.41 63.99 61.86 21.67 77.99 79.30<br />
52 Week High 54.08 50.07 34.93 26.97 68.75 65.20 30.37 98.29 110.71<br />
52 Week Low 35.85 30.43 18.17 13.95 40.82 48.10 20.05 74.00 52.31<br />
Beta 0.76 0.74 0.92 0.99 0.71 0.57 0.62 0.76 0.72<br />
Size<br />
Market Value(US$ mn) 54,355.6 39,484.2 16,232.5 4,986.8 39,744.6 39,223.7 119,413.9 106,531.8 714.6<br />
Enterprise Value 57,634.4 39,170.7 16,680.2 5,402.4 38,567.7 39,773.7 131,062.8 114,319.4 796.0<br />
Sales 17,277.3 8,615.8 2,695.3 855.4 6,853.6 10,378.0 45,450.2 37,431.4 437.5<br />
Assets 28,290.5 10,659.0 3,440.1 1,150.7 7,568.0 13,750.0 45,851.3 97,982.8 391.7<br />
Valuation<br />
LTM Price to Earnings 24.7 24.0 33.5 40.6 24.4 23.7 11.7 14.2 18.7<br />
LTM EPS 3.69 1.80 0.98 0.40 13.45 2.61 0.94 3.76 4,008.00<br />
FY1 Price to Earnings 21.3 21.0 26.7 38.2 22.5 19.5 11.2 9.7 -<br />
FY1 EPS 2.96 2.39 1.10 0.61 2.85 3.18 1.93 8.06 -<br />
FY2 Price to Earnings 17.3 18.7 20.7 26.3 20.2 17.2 10.6 9.0 -<br />
FY2 EPS 3.30 2.61 1.43 0.89 3.17 3.60 2.05 8.66 -<br />
NTM Price to Earnings 18.2 20.6 22.3 25.0 22.1 19.0 11.1 9.6 -<br />
NTM EPS 3.09 2.42 1.32 0.94 2.90 3.25 1.95 8.16 -<br />
Price to Book 6.3 6.5 8.0 8.9 6.6 6.2 6.3 1.6 3.6<br />
Enterprise to Sales 4.3 4.1 5.9 5.8 4.7 3.5 2.9 2.8 1.9<br />
Dividend Yield 1.9 1.1 1.1 0.4 1.1 1.2 4.6 3.3 1.0<br />
Gross Margin 56.2 52.7 45.2 33.6 74.5 46.6 78.4 58.9 40.0<br />
EBITDA Margin 28.8 29.7 30.0 15.6 29.5 23.6 39.0 35.3 15.3<br />
Operating Profit Margin 21.0 20.0 21.4 15.2 23.3 18.6 32.3 15.2 13.5<br />
Net Margin 15.2 15.4 17.0 7.0 16.7 13.5 23.2 14.1 8.6<br />
Net Return on Assets 12.0 11.7 13.3 5.2 15.1 10.2 23.0 5.4 9.6<br />
Net Return on Equity 24.3 21.8 23.8 12.3 21.4 22.3 57.4 8.8 19.0<br />
Growth (Yr/Yr)<br />
Sales Growth + 22.9 + 24.7 + 27.3 + 38.2 + 28.2 + 5.4 + 22.1 + 15.9 + 19.2<br />
Gross Profit Growth + 26.8 + 26.1 + 43.2 + 29.4 + 32.4 + 13.2 + 22.8 + 19.6 + 34.5<br />
Assets Growth + 12.7 + 15.4 + 15.8 + 23.0 + 16.3 + 15.1 + 6.8 - 0.8 + 33.9<br />
Source: Factset, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 15
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Metal & Mining<br />
Initiation<br />
Shougang Concord Int’l<br />
(697 HK,BUY,TP HK$ 3.50)<br />
EY Lee<br />
852-2295-2529 / dooley@miraeasset.com<br />
Major Beneficiary of Demand Growth<br />
Initiate coverage with BUY rating and TP of HK$3.50<br />
Our investment points for Shougang Concord Int’l are: 1)<br />
significant top-line and bottom-line growth expected<br />
following full-scale operation of new shipbuilding plate<br />
works in 2007; 2) bright outlook for its steel manufacturing,<br />
shipping, and electricity generation business; and 3) its<br />
share price being undervalued after a recent sharp decline.<br />
Our TP is equivalent to P/E of 12x to FY08 forecast EPS,<br />
which is a 35% discount to the Hang Seng Index average<br />
P/E. The discount was due to concerns over the possibility<br />
of an additional rights issue.<br />
Timely facility expansion to fuel earnings growth<br />
In 2007, the company began operation of a newly<br />
constructed slab plant (annual capacity of 2.6mn tons)<br />
including two blast furnaces and a heavy plate plant<br />
(annual capacity of 1.2mn tons) at Qinghuangdao Shouqin<br />
(SQ). As such, we project FY07 sales to be up 97% YoY<br />
and OP to be up 468.7% YoY. We also forecast sales and<br />
EPS to expand at CAGR of 9% and 20.3%, respectively,<br />
during 2007-10 on the back of Shouqin’s expected<br />
increase in slab production capacity to 3mn tons p.a. and<br />
heavy plate to 2mn tons p.a. through 2011.<br />
Impressive strategy to secure iron ore mine<br />
The company secured a 6.4% stake in Australian mine<br />
explorer Australasian Resources Ltd. (ARH AU) for<br />
AU$28mn in 2007. In February, the company also<br />
acquired a 19.7% stake in Australian iron ore miner Mount<br />
Gibson Iron Ltd. including a 10% option share. Such<br />
investment in upstream process is expected to sustain the<br />
company’s lofty profitability over the long haul.<br />
Undemanding valuation to provide a bargain hunting<br />
opportunity<br />
The company’s share price recently plummeted due to<br />
concerns over a rights issue in 2H07 and overall stock<br />
market weakness despite its strong FY07 ROE forecast at a<br />
hefty 37.8%. As such, P/E and EV/EBITDA have plunged to<br />
6.2x and 6.0x, respectively. Accordingly, our TP presents a<br />
83.3% upside from the current price.<br />
Full-scale heavy plate facility on-line in April 2007<br />
In 2004, SQ set up a two-phased investment plan to build a<br />
slab facility with two blast furnaces and an integrated steel<br />
mill with a heavy plate rolling line. It launched operations of<br />
a slab facility according to the first phase plan and began<br />
the trial operations of 4,300mm-wide heavy plate facility in<br />
September 2006 for the second phase. Both facilities began<br />
operations in April 2007 and production capacity for slab is<br />
now 2.6mn p.a. and for plate is 1.2mn p.a.<br />
Figure 1. Shougang Concord International: TP HK$3.50<br />
Construction<br />
Production<br />
capacity<br />
(1,000 tons)<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 16<br />
Product<br />
spec<br />
Note<br />
QZP 1993 800 plate 3000mm Procure slab from SQ<br />
SQ 2004 2600 slab<br />
Integrated steel mill with<br />
two blast furnaces<br />
1200 Plate 4300mm<br />
Completed two-phased<br />
investment, began<br />
operations in April 2007<br />
Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
Only listed player in the China’s Shougang Group<br />
As the largest shareholder, Shougang Holdings owns a<br />
40.2% stake in Shougang Concord Int’l. Shougang<br />
Holdings’ largest shareholder is Shougang Corp., whose<br />
largest shareholder is the City of Beijing. Shougang<br />
Concord Int’l is the only listed company among Shougang<br />
group companies. Listed on Hong Kong stock market in<br />
1991, the company specializes in making heavy plate<br />
products.
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Figure 2. Shareholding Structure (as of Feb 2008)<br />
JP<br />
Morgan Chase,<br />
2.79%<br />
Public &<br />
Institution,<br />
37.57%<br />
Baring<br />
Asset,<br />
4.97%<br />
Cheung Carlo<br />
Kong Tassara,<br />
HLDGS,<br />
6.43%<br />
8.04%<br />
Shougang<br />
Holding,<br />
40.20%<br />
Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
Figure 3. Operation Margin by Business Segment<br />
(%)<br />
60<br />
50<br />
40<br />
30<br />
20<br />
10<br />
0<br />
2006년<br />
1H07<br />
Steel Shipping Electricity Steel Trade<br />
Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
Figure 4. Sales Contribution by Segment<br />
Electricity, 4.2<br />
Shipping, 2.6<br />
Steel Trade,<br />
14.4<br />
Others, 0.9<br />
Steel<br />
Manufacture,<br />
77.9<br />
Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
Figure 5. OP Contribution by Segment<br />
Shipping, 11.5<br />
Steel<br />
Manufacture,<br />
80.7<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 17<br />
Electricity,<br />
6.1<br />
Steel<br />
Trade,<br />
0.6<br />
Others,<br />
1.1<br />
Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
Figure 6. Shougang’s Sales and OP Forecast<br />
(mn HK$)<br />
18,000<br />
16,000<br />
14,000<br />
12,000<br />
10,000<br />
8,000<br />
6,000<br />
4,000<br />
2,000<br />
0<br />
Operating income<br />
Revenue<br />
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E<br />
Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
(mn HK$)<br />
3,500<br />
3,000<br />
2,500<br />
2,000<br />
1,500<br />
1,000<br />
Figure 7. Shougang Concord International: TP HK$3.50<br />
Fiscal year Ended Dec. 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E<br />
Sales (HK$ mn) 4,570. 6,467. 12,745. 15,879. 15,970.<br />
OP (HK$ mn)<br />
0<br />
208.6<br />
5<br />
420.9<br />
8<br />
1,664.4<br />
6<br />
2,161.7<br />
0<br />
2,386.0<br />
EBITDA (HK$ mn) 287.7 679.7 2,139.0 2,745.5 2,993.4<br />
Net Profit (HK$ mn) 305.0 221.6 1,515.9 2,045.9 2,283.9<br />
EPS (HK$) 0.07 0.04 0.23 0.29 0.33<br />
P/E (x) 7.6 11.4 7.8 6.2 5.5<br />
P/B (x) 1.3 1.1 3.0 2.1 1.6<br />
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.0 10.1 8.0 6.0 5.0<br />
Source: Company Data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
500<br />
0
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Construction & Property<br />
Industry Update<br />
Chongqing - Glittering in Western China<br />
Kaiser Choi<br />
852-2295-2533 / kaiser.choi@miraeasset.com<br />
Highlighted Company<br />
Company Rating Current Price (Feb 13) Target Price<br />
C C Land (1224.HK) Not Rated HK$9.88 –<br />
Chongqing is a pilot reform city in western China<br />
It is on China’s top agenda to accelerate the economic<br />
development in western China following the country’s<br />
success in wealth creation along its coastal regions. As<br />
one of the most important cities in the west, Chongqing<br />
has been selected as a “Trial Zone for Comprehensive<br />
Reform” by the State Council with the aim to achieve<br />
“coordinated rural and urban development.” Under China’s<br />
planned economy, Chongqing will become the regional<br />
economic center in western China. We expect that the city<br />
will receive greater budget from the central government to<br />
speed up the development of infrastructure and urbanrural<br />
integration. More autonomy would also be given to<br />
the local governments to carry out policies on land, credit<br />
and preferential tax treatment.<br />
Figure 1. GDP Growth Outpaced National Average<br />
%<br />
13.0<br />
12.0<br />
11.0<br />
10.0<br />
9.0<br />
8.0<br />
7.0<br />
GDP YoY Growth<br />
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006<br />
Source: CEIC, Mirae Asset Research<br />
China Chongqing<br />
Home price catching up with income growth<br />
We believe property markets in Chongqing remain healthy.<br />
Although home price growth in the city has accelerated in<br />
recent years, the increase has actually been supported by<br />
solid income growth. Over the past decade, home prices<br />
in Chongqing increased by 133%, in line with the 130%<br />
growth in urban annual disposable income per capita. The<br />
accelerating home prices have only caught up with income<br />
growth, as illustrated in Figure 2.<br />
Figure 2. No Bubble in Home Prices<br />
Income vs Home Price in Chongqing<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 18<br />
RMB<br />
13,500<br />
12,500<br />
11,500<br />
10,500<br />
9,500<br />
8,500<br />
7,500<br />
6,500<br />
5,500<br />
4,500<br />
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br />
RMB/m 2<br />
2,900<br />
2,700<br />
2,500<br />
2,300<br />
2,100<br />
1,900<br />
1,700<br />
1,500<br />
1,300<br />
1,100<br />
Urban Annual Disposable Income Per Capita (LHS) Residential Selling Price (RHS)<br />
Source: CEIC, Statistical Information of Chongqing, Mirae Asset Research<br />
Favorable supply-demand situation<br />
Home supply had been in line with demand in Chongqing<br />
until 2005 when the purchasing power of local residents<br />
began to flow into the market and demand started to<br />
outstrip supply, as illustrated in Figure 3. We estimate that<br />
cumulative demand-supply gap should have widened to<br />
about 11mn m 2 . With a total population of 28mn,<br />
Chongqing’s urbanization rate was 48.3% in 2007. The<br />
government plans to boost the rate to 52% by 2010 and to<br />
80% by 2020, which should result in higher demand for<br />
urban residential properties. Besides, local residents and<br />
end-users still dominate the market (accounts for 91% of<br />
total buyers). As Chongqing has been designated to<br />
become the economic growth engine in western China, we<br />
anticipate both real demand and investment demand will<br />
continue to increase in the next few years, lending support<br />
to further price growth.<br />
Figure 3. Demand Outstrips Supply from 2005<br />
'000m 2<br />
35,000<br />
30,000<br />
25,000<br />
20,000<br />
15,000<br />
10,000<br />
5,000<br />
0<br />
Residential Supply vs Demand in Chongqing<br />
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007<br />
Residential Supply Residential demand<br />
Source: CEIC, Statistical Information of Chongqing, Mirae Asset Research<br />
C C Land has heavy exposure in western China<br />
Amongst major mainland developers, C C Land (1224.HK)<br />
has the heaviest exposure in western China. Virtually all of<br />
its land reserves are located in the west, of which 65% lie<br />
in Chongqing. Future prospects for the company are bright<br />
in our view.<br />
900
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Shipping<br />
Industry Update<br />
NOL<br />
(NOL.SP,BUY,TP SG$4.47)<br />
Je Hyun Ryu<br />
82-2-3774-1418 / jayryu@miraeasset.com<br />
Stronger than Expected US Routes<br />
NOL: FY07 earnings beat consensus estimates<br />
NOL recorded FY07 revenue of US$8.2bn, in line with our<br />
estimates, but OP of US$613mn exceeded our estimates<br />
by 11.2%. The company’s revenue and OP also beat<br />
consensus estimates by 2.2% and 23.8%, respectively.<br />
We maintain our BUY rating and TP of SG$4.47.<br />
Higher volume and freight rate<br />
NOL’s FY07 freight volume and rate rose by 12.5% YoY<br />
and 4.1% YoY, respectively. In particular, freight rate in US<br />
routes only declined 1.5% YoY in 4Q07, while freight rate<br />
for Europe and Asia routes increased by 25.2% YoY and<br />
23.2% YoY, respectively, for the same period. Meanwhile,<br />
4Q07 freight volume in US routes increased 23.4% YoY<br />
and 19.7% QoQ.<br />
Increasing backhaul volume from US exports<br />
We believe strength in US routes is being fueled by<br />
increasing backhaul volume from US exports. According to<br />
the company, for every 10 FEUs in US routes that are full<br />
headhaul, 6 FEUs are estimated to have been full<br />
backhaul in FY07. This is a huge improvement from FY06<br />
when the backhaul volume in US routes was only 5 FEUs<br />
for every 10 FEUs headhaul. This improvement in the<br />
backhaul volume was due to increasing demand for US<br />
exports as a result of weak dollar.<br />
Focus on better-than-expected US routes<br />
NOL’s strong earnings improvement is due to growth in<br />
container volume in Europe and Asia, and better-thanexpected<br />
performance in US routes. NOL announced that<br />
it will reduce supply to 50,000 TEU/week in 1Q08.<br />
Effective supply control should tighten supply/demand<br />
balance relative to sluggishness in the demand for US<br />
routes.<br />
Figure 1. FY07 Earnings Review<br />
(US$mn, %) 2007E 2007P<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 19<br />
Diff<br />
(%,%p)<br />
2006 (YoY) Consensus<br />
Diff<br />
(%,%p)<br />
Revenue 8,161.9 8,160.0 (0.0) 7,263.5 12.3 7,982.1 2.2<br />
OP 551.4 613 11.2 401.0 52.9 495.1 23.8<br />
Pre-tax profit 563.1 585.9 4.0 272.8 114.7 508.7 15.2<br />
NP 496.0 523.0 5.4 363.7 43.8 451.7 15.8<br />
OP margin 6.8 7.5 0.8 5.5 2.0 6.2 1.3<br />
Pre-tax<br />
margin<br />
6.9 7.2 0.3 3.8 3.4 6.4 0.8<br />
Net margin 6.1 6.4 0.3 5.0 1.4 5.7 0.8<br />
Source: NOL, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
Figure 2. Operating Data for Container Lines<br />
2005 2006 2007P 2008E 2009E<br />
Freight volume (1,000 FEU) 1,946.0 2,097.0 2,358.0 2,452.2 2,625.0<br />
Asia-Europe Trade 383.0 414.0 428.0 459.2 505.6<br />
Transatlantic Trade 122.0 120.0 132.0 141.8 148.8<br />
Transpacific Trade 710.0 730.0 832.0 818.4 890.3<br />
Latin America Trade 139.0 165.0 182.0 202.2 208.2<br />
Asia/Australia/Middle East 592.0 668.0 784.0 830.6 872.1<br />
Freight rate (US$/FEU) 2,841 2,632 2,740 2,873 2,951<br />
Total Europe 2,664 2,497 2,848 2,820 2,872<br />
Total US 3,539 3,416 3,347 3,729 3,790<br />
Asia/Australia/Middle East 1,991 1,689 1,877 1,860 1,953<br />
Source: NOL, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
Figure 3. Container Volume Results<br />
4Q07P 3Q07<br />
QoQ<br />
(%,%p)<br />
4Q06<br />
YoY<br />
(%,%p)<br />
Freight volume (1,000 FEU) 670 564 18.8 580 15.5<br />
Asia-Europe Trade 117 98 19.4 113 3.5<br />
Transatlantic Trade 38 32 18.8 32 18.8<br />
Transpacific Trade 243 203 19.7 197 23.4<br />
Latin America Trade 55 44 25.0 45 22.2<br />
Asia/Australia/Middle East 217 187 16.0 193 12.4<br />
Freight rate (US$/FEU) 2,865 2,885 (0.7) 2,583 10.9<br />
Total Europe 3,161 2,978 6.1 2,524 25.2<br />
Total US 3,312 3,462 (4.3) 3,362 (1.5)<br />
Asia/Australia/Middle East 2,041 2,060 (0.9) 1,657 23.2<br />
Source: NOL, Mirae Asset Research estimates
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Auto Parts<br />
Industry Update<br />
Strong Potential in Key Emerging Markets<br />
Jaewoo Kim<br />
82-2-3774-2193 / jwkim21@miraeasset.com<br />
Our View on Highlighted Companies<br />
Company Rating<br />
Current Price<br />
Target Price<br />
(Feb 13)<br />
S&T Daewoo (064960.KS) BUY W27,400 W65,000<br />
Dongyang Mech. (013570.KS) BUY W5,610 W16,000<br />
Global automakers responding to demand for low-end<br />
cars are likely to see qualified Korean auto parts makers<br />
benefit from this industry trend.<br />
At the moment, global automakers are categorized into<br />
two groups: 1) fast growing automakers based in Asia;<br />
and 2) slow-growing automakers in North America and<br />
Europe. Facing different circumstances, each group has<br />
different strategies and goals. However, both groups share<br />
a common need for auto parts makers that are competitive<br />
in price and high in quality.<br />
Securing auto parts makers to meet continued production<br />
capacity expansion is vital for fast-growing automakers. To<br />
do so, they are likely to seek new auto parts makers with<br />
quality and price competitiveness, while encouraging<br />
existing auto parts makers to expand investment.<br />
For slow-growing automakers, cost structure improvement<br />
is key. These companies are also likely to want auto parts<br />
makers with strong price competitiveness and good quality<br />
products.<br />
If automakers are focused more on competitive pricing<br />
than on quality, they are likely to contract with China auto<br />
parts makers. However, if automakers want both quality<br />
and price competitiveness, they are likely to turn to<br />
qualified auto parts makers in Korea.<br />
Recently, GM steadily increased orders to domestic auto<br />
parts makers including S&T Daewoo and Dongyang<br />
Mechatronics. As such, global automakers are very likely<br />
to pay more attention to Korean auto parts makers as they<br />
seek new growth engines in key emerging markets with<br />
improved price competitiveness.<br />
Therefore, we recommend investors to keep close eyes on<br />
S&T Daewoo and Dongyang Mechatronics which have<br />
already secured strong potential to expand supplies to<br />
global auto manufacturers and are expected to see<br />
positive earnings performance in the mid- to long-term<br />
perspective.<br />
Figure 1. Global Automakers Interested in<br />
Outstanding Domestic Auto Parts Makers<br />
Fast growing group<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 20<br />
Japan<br />
Japan<br />
South South Korea Korea<br />
China<br />
China<br />
Slow growing group<br />
Germany Germany<br />
USA<br />
USA<br />
Other Other Europe Europe<br />
• Active expanding<br />
capacity<br />
• Nurturing new auto<br />
parts makers<br />
Increasingly<br />
necessary<br />
• Continued efforts for<br />
restructuring<br />
• Further cost saving<br />
increasingly<br />
necessary<br />
Source: WardsAuto, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
• Auto parts makers<br />
with quality and<br />
price<br />
competitiveness<br />
capture increasing<br />
attention<br />
• Competitiveness of<br />
domestic auto parts<br />
makers underlined<br />
• Competitive<br />
domestic auto parts<br />
makers forecast to<br />
generate overseas<br />
sales<br />
Figure 2. Japanese Auto Parts Stocks Sharply Rise<br />
on Expansion of Overseas Sales<br />
120<br />
100<br />
80<br />
60<br />
40<br />
20<br />
P/E gap between automakers and auto parts makers (RHS)<br />
Japanese major automakers’ avg P/E (LHS)<br />
Japanese major auto parts makers’ avg. P/E (LHS)<br />
Toyota- GM joint venture in<br />
the U.S., New United Motor<br />
Manufacturing, Inc.<br />
(NUMMI), started<br />
production, 1984<br />
Toyota Motor<br />
Manufacturing, Kentucky,<br />
Inc. started production,<br />
1988<br />
60.0<br />
40.0<br />
20.0<br />
(20.0)<br />
(40.0)<br />
0<br />
(60.0)<br />
1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006<br />
Source: Factset, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
Figure 3. Korea Auto Parts Manufacturers More<br />
Competitive than China Peers (Japan=100)<br />
Materials Labor<br />
Inventory<br />
management<br />
Transportation<br />
Facility<br />
expansion<br />
Korea 88.3 77 86.2 83.1 80.7<br />
China 81.8 45.9 75 76.4 68.4<br />
R&D labor R&D facility Other R&D Others Total<br />
Korea 74.6 73.7 75.1 80 84.2<br />
China 52.9 58.5 57.3 64.8 72<br />
Source: KIET, K<strong>AP</strong> Korea, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
0.0
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Consumer<br />
Industry Update<br />
China’s Consumer Sector<br />
Anita Hwang<br />
852-2295-2523 / anita.hwang@miraeasset.com<br />
Did the snowstorm freeze Chinese consumers?<br />
The unexpectedly cold weather and snowstorm in China<br />
over the past month has triggered many concerns on<br />
escalating consumer prices and reduced consumption<br />
demand. While we believed the temporary shock from<br />
reduced supply would drive up prices, we were not in the<br />
view that consumption demand would be significantly<br />
affected. The most heavily-hit snowstorm areas were in<br />
the rural and second- to third-tier cities in Central and<br />
Southern provinces. These regions are neither key<br />
revenue-generating areas for retailers nor manufacturing<br />
hubs for apparel and footwear. Unless the snowstorm and<br />
cold weather persist for much longer, we expect material<br />
negative impact to be contained to the agricultural players.<br />
The retail statistics from first-tier cities like Shanghai and<br />
Beijing during the Spring Festival holiday confirmed that<br />
consumption has not dwindled during the cold weather.<br />
Beijing Municipal Bureau of Commerce reported that sales<br />
of 36 department stores in Beijing on the past Sunday<br />
increased 29.6% YoY. According to statistics from the<br />
Beijing Commercial Information and Consultation Center,<br />
sales revenue generated from a sample of 2,901 stores in<br />
Beijing recorded double-digit growth in line with<br />
expectations.<br />
Figure 1. Beijing’s Retail Sales during New Year’s<br />
Category Y-o-Y Growth (%)<br />
Department stores / shopping malls 23.4<br />
Supermarkets 21.0<br />
Catering Services 13.2<br />
Specialty Stores 12.4<br />
Source: Beijing Commercial Information and Consultation Center<br />
According to samples drawn by the Shanghai Economic<br />
Committee during the seven day Spring Festival holiday<br />
from 361 large- to-mid retailers in Shanghai, total retail<br />
sales were RMB4.2bn or an increase of 20.5% YoY. Part<br />
of the increase was attributed to the increased spending<br />
from staying in town during the adverse weather. Overall,<br />
the retail sales of consumer goods in China during the<br />
Spring Festival holiday rose 16.0% YoY to RMB255bn<br />
(15% YoY growth in 2007, 14.5% YoY growth in 2006).<br />
A reality check of hypermarkets in Shanghai<br />
Research on “Large-scale Retailers in Shanghai in 2007”<br />
conducted by Shanghai Business School revealed a<br />
slowdown in expansion of hypermarkets in Shanghai. New<br />
store opening reduced as a result of intense competition<br />
and escalating rental costs.<br />
Figure 2. Slowed Expansion of Hypermarkets in<br />
Shanghai during 2007<br />
2007 2006<br />
New Store Opening 14 20<br />
Closure 1 2<br />
Total 145 132<br />
YoY growth in store number 9.8% 15.2%<br />
The level of competition is reflected in the fact that 69 of<br />
the 145 hypermarkets in Shanghai have at least one<br />
competitor within a 1 km radius. Some stores have as<br />
many as 4 competitors within a 1 km radius. 133 of the<br />
145 hypermarkets have at least one competitor within a 3<br />
km radius. Some stores have as many as 16 competitors<br />
within a 3 km radius.<br />
We reiterate our previous view that China’s hypermarket<br />
competitive environment is highly intense as a result of<br />
rapid expansion. Growth rate is expected to slow<br />
particularly in first-tier cities while profit margin is expected<br />
to narrow. Market consolidation is expected to continue as<br />
small players struggle to survive. We believe the<br />
hypermarket is likely to become an oligopolistic market<br />
dominated by national foreign players and a few regional<br />
leaders.<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 21
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Banking<br />
Industry Update<br />
M&A Rumor & Asset Quality Worries<br />
Patrick Pong<br />
852-2295-2516 / patrick.pong@miraeasset.com<br />
Highlighted Companies<br />
Company Rating Current Price (Feb 14) Target Price<br />
CCB (939.HK) Not Rated HK$5.83 -<br />
HK’s Wing Lung Bank is speculated to be for sale<br />
According to Ming Pao Daily, a large-scale Chinese bank<br />
has interests to acquire Wing Lung Bank (WLB), which is<br />
62.56%-owned by the Wu family. WLB, a medium-sized,<br />
locally incorporated commercial bank, with market cap of<br />
HK$22bn, denied there are negotiations or agreements.<br />
Asking price is equivalent to 3x book value<br />
Asking price is reportedly to be as high as 3x book value<br />
(or 21x FY06 earnings), valuing WLB at HK$34bn. This<br />
valuation looks expensive as transactions of mediumsized<br />
banks in HK usually fall within a range of 1.2x-2.5x<br />
book value. The most expensive M&A was back in 2001<br />
when DBS bought Dao Heng Bank for 3.4x book value.<br />
The most recent M&A was in 2006 when JCG Holdings<br />
acquired Asia Commercial Bank for 2.4x book value.<br />
Figure 1. Chinese Banks’ Exposure in HK<br />
BOC(HK) CCB(Asia) ICBC(Asia) WLB<br />
Branches HK 280 20 41 33<br />
Macau 0 4 0 0<br />
Others 12 0 0 3<br />
Profit(2006) HK$mn 14,007 616 1,246 1,606<br />
Asset(2006) HK$mn 928,953 36,894 146,392 84,981<br />
Equity(2006) HK$mn 86,640 8,024 11,085 11,382<br />
Shareholder<br />
BOC<br />
65.7%<br />
CCB<br />
100%<br />
ICBC<br />
71.21%<br />
Wu<br />
family<br />
62.56%<br />
Source: Company<br />
Who’s the buyer?<br />
BOC looks unlikely as BOC(HK) is already one of the<br />
largest players in HK and an acquisition of WLB is unlikely<br />
to bring in much synergetic benefit. Although ICBC is<br />
expanding overseas, emerging markets are at the top of<br />
its agenda. It recently acquired 79.9% of Macau’s Seng<br />
Heng Bank for HK$4.5bn and 20% enlarged capital of<br />
South African Standard Bank for HK$42.31bn. An<br />
acquisition in a mature market like HK looks inconsistent<br />
with the bank’s M&A objective.<br />
Could be CCB given its Asia expansion strategy<br />
CCB’s exposure in HK and overseas markets is relatively<br />
small compared to other Chinese banks. A major<br />
breakthrough was in December 2006 when CCB acquired<br />
Bank of America(Asia) in HK for HK$9.7bn or 1.3x book<br />
value. It has now adopted the name CCB(Asia). This has<br />
only raised overseas earnings contribution to 1.9% in<br />
1H07, in contrast to 0.8% in FY06. CCB’s chairman<br />
indicated that the priority of overseas development<br />
strategy is to strengthen Asian business, particularly in HK.<br />
Recently, the bank spent HK$1.8bn to acquire a 50%<br />
interest in a HK office building which is to be constructed<br />
by 2011. Moreover, the bank’s branch network expanded<br />
from 14 in 2006 to 20 in 2007. These moves suggest<br />
CCB’s expansion plan in HK has continued.<br />
Inappropriate time to acquire because…<br />
While US subprime meltdown does not pose a systemic<br />
threat to the HK banking sector, HKMA deputy chief<br />
executive Choi Yiu-kwan warns that “local lenders should<br />
not lose sight of the second wave” and closely monitor the<br />
contagion effect on HK’s economic growth and asset<br />
quality. An increase in bad debt charges would erode<br />
profitability of HK banks.<br />
Profitability to be trimmed by economic slowdown<br />
Bank asset qualities remain sound so far, as the overdue<br />
loan ratio hovers at a record low of 0.6% and bad debt<br />
charge to asset ratio stands at 0.04% as of 3Q07.<br />
However, when economic activities start moderating over<br />
the course of the year, overdue loans and bad debt<br />
charges should start to rise as they usually lag behind the<br />
business cycle. For instance, when HK’s real GDP slowed<br />
from 6% in 1994 to 2.3% in 1995, banks’ bad debt charge<br />
ratio edged up from 0.05% in 1994 to 0.18% 1996. After<br />
the Asian financial crisis, this ratio peaked at 0.76% in<br />
1999. Despite these concerns, we believe the HK<br />
economy should be more resilient than before, as<br />
discussed in the previous <strong>AP</strong> weekly. We expect the ratio<br />
to be more in line with 1996 levels. Hence, the impact on<br />
the HK banking sector is likely to be limited as ROE<br />
declines 1.9%p to 14.6% and ROA narrows 0.15%p to<br />
1.2%.<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 22
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Figure 2. Impact of HK Economic Slowdown<br />
Banking<br />
Sector<br />
Scenario 1 Scenario 2<br />
2006 A slowdown A recession<br />
Pre-provision<br />
ROA<br />
% 1.54 1.54 1.54<br />
Bad debt charge % of asset 0.01 0.18 0.76<br />
Pre-tax ROA % 1.53 1.36 0.78<br />
Tax % of asset 0.18 0.16 0.09<br />
Post-tax ROA % 1.35 1.20 0.69<br />
Equity/Asset % 8.2 8.2 8.2<br />
ROE % 16.5 14.6 8.4<br />
Source: HKMA, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
We prefer CCB on undemanding valuation<br />
We believe CCB’s expansion in Asia through organic<br />
growth and acquisition should continue and be positive to<br />
the bank’s long-term outlook. As a global economic<br />
slowdown would erode profitability, it is in the bank’s favor<br />
to fight for the best valuation, which is more than what the<br />
Wu family is asking, or to look for other opportunities in the<br />
Asian region. CCB is trading at 16.6x FY08 earnings, well<br />
below the peer group average. Coupled with 28% EPS<br />
CAGR, we prefer CCB compared to its China peers.<br />
Figure 3. Peer Group Comparison<br />
(X,%)<br />
P/E<br />
2007<br />
P/E<br />
2008<br />
P/B<br />
2007<br />
P/B<br />
2008<br />
3-yr<br />
EPS<br />
CAGR<br />
China Merchant Bank 42.3 29.3 6.4 5.4 42.7<br />
Bank of Comm. 27.5 21.4 4.3 3.9 34.1<br />
China Construction Bank 20.2 16.6 3.7 3.4 28.3<br />
Bank of China 14.3 11.0 1.9 1.7 25.4<br />
ICBC 22.0 17.0 3.4 3.2 31.7<br />
China CITIC Bank 21.8 15.1 2.6 2.3 45.2<br />
Average 24.7 18.4 3.7 3.3 34.6<br />
Sources: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 23
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Internet / Software<br />
Company Update<br />
China’s B2B e-Commerce Giant<br />
Woo-Cheol Jeong<br />
82-2-3774-6708 / good@miraeasset.com<br />
Taeyoung Kim<br />
82-2-3774-2132 / tykim@miraeasset.com<br />
Highlighted Companies<br />
Company Rating Current Price (Jan 9) Target Price<br />
Alibaba.com (1688.HK) HOLD HK$ HK$ 19.00<br />
Initiate with HOLD rating and TP of HK$ 19.00<br />
We initiated coverage of Alibaba.com with a HOLD rating<br />
and TP of HK$19.00. We have a neutral stance on the<br />
stock as even though the price has fallen more than 50%<br />
from the previous high due to weak global stock<br />
performance, we still view the current valuation as<br />
demanding.<br />
Alibaba.com was listed on the HKSE on November 6,<br />
2007. The company raised US$1.5bn in its IPO, which<br />
was the largest IT offering since Google. As China’s<br />
largest and leading e-commerce company, Alibaba.com<br />
has first mover advantage in the Chinese B2B ecommerce<br />
market.<br />
The company is currently trading at FY08 forecast P/E of<br />
97.9x. Chinese Internet firms on the NASDAQ are trading<br />
at an average FY08 forecast P/E of 26.7x, while the<br />
benchmark Hang Seng Index average FY08 forecast P/E<br />
is 17.6x. TP was derived by applying Hang Seng Index<br />
average PEG of 0.9x to 3-year EPS growth in anticipation<br />
of the company’s growth potential. As there is limited<br />
upside potential (current stock price is HK$19.58), we<br />
maintain a HOLD on the company.<br />
We forecast the company to post FY08 revenue of<br />
RMB3.4bn (up 54.3% YoY) and OP of RMB760mn (up<br />
75.6% YoY). The company should enjoy such robust<br />
growth thanks to its first mover advantage in the China<br />
B2B e-commerce market. Considering China’s high<br />
economic growth and rapidly improving Internet<br />
infrastructure, high growth of the B2B e-commerce market<br />
should sustain.<br />
Of note, the utilization rate of e-commerce by China<br />
SME’s is rising fast. Moreover, the proportion of paid<br />
members among the company’s member base is still very<br />
small, thus leaving ample room for growth.<br />
Figure 1. Paid subscribers<br />
(1,000) Gold Supplier (Lhs)<br />
(1,000)<br />
25<br />
International TrustPass (Lhs)<br />
250<br />
20<br />
China TrustPass (Rhs)<br />
200<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 24<br />
15<br />
10<br />
5<br />
0<br />
05/12 06/06 06/12 07/06<br />
Source: Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
Figure 2. Revenue and OP<br />
(RMB mn)<br />
6,000<br />
5,000<br />
4,000<br />
3,000<br />
2,000<br />
1,000<br />
0<br />
Revenue (Lhs) OP (Rhs)<br />
2004 2005 2006 2007E 2008E 2009E<br />
Source: Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
0<br />
150<br />
100<br />
50<br />
0<br />
(RMB mn)<br />
1,400<br />
1,200<br />
1,000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Tech<br />
Industry Update<br />
Semiconductor Update<br />
Hak Moo Lee<br />
82-2-3774-1785 / hmlee@miraeasset.com<br />
We believe that the DRAM cycle has bottomed out.<br />
However, there are still several uncertainties, given 1) that<br />
Qimonda has issued convertible bonds; 2) that Micron<br />
Technology should shortly spin-off its CMOS image<br />
sensor business and focus on its memory business; 3)<br />
that Powerchip Semiconductor Corp (PSC) should expand<br />
sub-32-nm CMOS research.<br />
Qimonda is projecting revenue to drop -56% YoY to<br />
€513mn and NP to turn in the red to €598mn in 4QFY07.<br />
The operating cash outflow was around US$400mn in the<br />
same quarter, and it had been performing the worst<br />
among DRAM companies (Figure 1).<br />
Figure 1. Operating Cash Flow in 4QFY07<br />
(US$ mn)<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
(100)<br />
(200)<br />
(300)<br />
(400)<br />
(500)<br />
Micron<br />
Hynix<br />
Source: Micron Technology<br />
Elpida<br />
Even though DRAM prices have rebounded recently by<br />
around 15-20% from the previous bottom, major<br />
commodity DRAMs such as DDR2 512Mb are still far<br />
below cash cost. Therefore, Qimonda could continue to<br />
suffer from operating cash outflow.<br />
Recently, Qimonda issued convertible bonds (total amount<br />
US$217.6mn, 17.5mn ADSs with an initial conversion<br />
price of US$7.25 per share at a coupon of 6.75%). We<br />
believe that it would take more time to reach the<br />
meaningful reflection point of the DRAM industry, due to<br />
Qimonda’s efforts to survive. In spite of the operating cash<br />
outflow, the company still focuses on the DRAM<br />
technology progress to 58nm and the cost optimization of<br />
ProMOS<br />
Powerchip<br />
Nanya<br />
Qimonda<br />
1Gb DDR2 on 75nm.<br />
Micron Technology also seems to focus on being a<br />
dedicated memory manufacturer by spinning off it CMOS<br />
image sensor (CIS) units. We see that this could bring<br />
about more competition among the top memory players.<br />
Micron has been well positioned to benefit from 8” fab<br />
leverage on CIS like the system LSI business of Samsung<br />
Electronics. Unlike other dedicated DRAM players, Micron<br />
and Samsung Electronics have been less vulnerable to<br />
the price drops due to their 8” fab utilization on various<br />
products other than DRAMs.<br />
Even though Micron has a plan to expand the NAND flash<br />
market by sub-40 nm products in 2H08, it would suffer<br />
from its supply of DRAM units due to the relatively<br />
stagnant progress in technology migration to sub-70 nm.<br />
More than 80% of DRAM in Micron’s 12” fab in Virginia<br />
and Singapore is being produced in 78nm technology,<br />
which has less size efficiency than Samsung’s 68nm and<br />
Hynix’s 66nm technology.<br />
We believe that the restructuring of the DRAM industry is<br />
imminent, but the speed would be slower than anticipated.<br />
Powerchip Semiconductor, a Taiwan DRAM company, is<br />
poised to join the sub-32 mn memory technology group<br />
from next month. Powerchip Semiconductor is also<br />
struggling with operating cash outflow. However, it should<br />
progress one step forward to strive to survive in DRAM<br />
industry.<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 25
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Tech<br />
Industry Update<br />
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufactu<br />
ring (TSMC)<br />
(2330.TT, Not Rated)<br />
United Microelectronics (UMC)<br />
(2303.TT, Not Rated)<br />
H C Kwan.CFA<br />
852-2295-2525 / kwanhc@miraeasset.com<br />
A bump cleared, but more ahead<br />
Both TSMC and UMC during the week reported net sales<br />
figures for the month of January as sales were flat on a<br />
MoM basis. TSMC reported small growth of 3.6% MoM to<br />
NT$31.0bn while UMC reported a small MoM decline of<br />
2.9% to NT$8.2bn.<br />
The performances of both foundries in January are in line<br />
with earlier guidance. But we see more turbulence ahead<br />
for them, especially in 1H08.<br />
UMC is expected to face sharp slowdown in sales over the<br />
next two months. We estimate a 20% drop in sales in the<br />
last two months of 1Q08 due to shrinking shipment volume<br />
and ASP. Given over 30% depreciation costs in COGS,<br />
profit, in there is any, is likely to drop significantly.<br />
TSMC may do better for its higher share of sales from<br />
advanced under-90nm process nodes, which may edge up<br />
2%p to 35%. But a fall in utilization rate to 70% from 85%<br />
in 4Q07 should hurt bottom line.<br />
We believe 1H08 should be a tough period for<br />
semiconductor players and look forward to a turnaround in<br />
3Q08, driven by ever increasing popularity of flat panel<br />
TVs. The US is scheduled to terminate analog<br />
broadcasting in February 2009. Barring a severe downturn<br />
in economic activities, demand for new replacement TV<br />
should be solid in the US and around the world.<br />
Figure1.Total Semiconductor Capital Spending (US$bn)<br />
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012<br />
59.09 51.30 55.72 63.25 58.25 62.65<br />
Source: Gartner<br />
As shipment slows, top foundries are cutting capex in<br />
equipment investment and turning to R&D to boost<br />
productivity. Unlike their peers, these companies have<br />
been cutting capex more aggressively. According to<br />
Gartner’s newly release estimates, global semiconductor<br />
capital expenditures is forecasted to shrink 13.2% to<br />
US$51.3bn. In the meantime, the two foundries plan to cut<br />
even more than that: each by over 30% in 2008.<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 26
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Telecom<br />
Earnings Review<br />
Industry Update<br />
IPTV Begins to Bloom in Asia<br />
Young Choi<br />
82-2-3774-2173 / young.choi@miraeasset.com<br />
Our View on Highlighted Companies<br />
Company Rating<br />
Current<br />
Price(Feb13)<br />
Target Price<br />
KT(030200.KS) BUY W50,000 W 71,000<br />
SKT(017670.KS) BUY W189,000 W 330,000<br />
Hanaro Telecom(033630.KS) BUY W11,600 W13,100<br />
China Telecom(728.HK) Not Rated HK$5.74 N/A<br />
China Netcom(906.HK) Not Rated HK$23.10 N/A<br />
PCCW(8.HK) Not Rated HK$4.43 N/A<br />
IPTV business is on a rising trend in the Asian<br />
telecommunications industry. As most fixed-line telecom<br />
operators face declining revenue from fixed-line<br />
operations, IPTV is emerging as a positive new growth<br />
driver. Also, recent trends toward telecom-media<br />
convergence should be another factor driving IPTV<br />
business growth. China started IPTV services in 2005 and<br />
Korea is expected to launch full-IPTV services with realtime<br />
broadcasting in early 2H08. Meanwhile, Hong Kong<br />
has already seen meaningful penetration in IPTV services.<br />
Figure 1. IPTV Subscriber Numbers in Asian Market<br />
('000)<br />
1,200<br />
2006 2007<br />
1,000<br />
800<br />
846<br />
758<br />
900<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
200<br />
0<br />
China Hong Kong<br />
(PCCW)<br />
150<br />
1,131<br />
Korea<br />
Source: Korea Electriocs Information Center, PCCW, Mirae Asset<br />
Research estimates<br />
Note: Hong Kong’s 2007 number is estimation<br />
Note: KT’s subscriber number is not considered in Korea’s 2006 number<br />
China’s IPTV subscriptions were 846,000 persons at end-<br />
2007, significantly below market expectation of 1.3mn. We<br />
believe regulations on IPTV led to the sluggish growth.<br />
The Chinese government issued IPTV business licenses<br />
to only four broadcasting companies (Shanghai Media<br />
Group(SMG), CCTV, Southern Media Corp(SMC), and<br />
Zhejiang Radio Television Group(ZRTG)), and has not<br />
allowed telcos to operate the business directly. Separation<br />
of services from the network deterred aggressive<br />
infrastructure investments by telcos. However, we remain<br />
focused on the following positive drivers for IPTV services:<br />
1) CT, CNC and SMG willingness to support IPTV<br />
business; and 2) government plans to reduce the gap in<br />
information accessibility between urban and rural regions.<br />
In short, IPTV business has great potential to grow in the<br />
China market.<br />
Hong Kong now looks to be the world leader in IPTV<br />
penetration with the success of PCCW’s ‘nowTV’ service.<br />
Launched in 2003, nowTV is expected to have had around<br />
900,000 subscribers at end-2007. Aside from the fact that<br />
IPTV subscriptions and ARPU showed steady growth, we<br />
are focused on PCCW’s QPS plan to utilize content<br />
distribution across various platforms (mobile, fixed-line,<br />
broadband, IPTV). We believe PCCW should benefit from<br />
the QPS plan as it should lower churn rate of other<br />
products and increase overall ARPU. We also believe<br />
PCCW’s nowTV is a stronger service than i-Cable’s<br />
(dominant cable TV operator), considering superiority of<br />
content and availability of bundled service.<br />
Figure 2. PCCW’s nowTV Subsciptions and ARPU<br />
Trend<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 27<br />
('000)<br />
1,000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200<br />
0<br />
Subs (LHS)<br />
monthly ARPU (RHS)<br />
2H03 1H04 2H04 1H05 2H05 1H06 2H06 1H07<br />
Source: PCCW, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
(HK$)<br />
200<br />
In Korea, we believe IPTV is about to bloom. Total number<br />
of subscribers of pre-IPTV (based on VOD service)<br />
reached 1.1mn as of December 2007. With the National<br />
Assembly granting full-IPTV services at the end of last<br />
year, launch of full-IPTV services should begin early 2H08<br />
by major fixed-line telcos, like KT and Hanaro Telecom.<br />
Also, as dominate mobile operator SKT’s acquisition of<br />
Hanaro Telecom is expected to be approved by the<br />
government, the IPTV market should be driven by two<br />
dominate players: KT and SKT. This should lead to largescale<br />
penetration of IPTV business, in our view.<br />
160<br />
120<br />
80<br />
40<br />
0
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Figure 3. Trend in Korea IPTV Subscriptions<br />
('000)<br />
1,200<br />
1,000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
200<br />
0<br />
Hanaro (HanaTV) KT (MegaTV)<br />
55 65 73<br />
147<br />
230<br />
548 501 540 591 664<br />
280<br />
754<br />
325<br />
807<br />
Jun07 Aug07 Oct07 Dec07<br />
Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Research estimates<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 28
<strong>AP</strong> <strong>Insight</strong><br />
Recommendation<br />
By item (six months)<br />
Buy: A target price of over + 20% of the current price,<br />
Hold: A target price of - 10% to +10% of the current price<br />
Reduce: A target price of –20% or less than the current price<br />
* Note: Correction of –10% to +10% is possible based on the<br />
investment recommendations by industry.<br />
Earnings Quality Score<br />
By industry<br />
Attractive: over +10% of the current industry index<br />
Neutral: -10% to +10% of the current industry index<br />
Cautious: -10% or less than the current industry index<br />
Terminology of Investment recommendation by industry has changed<br />
since August 3, 2005 as follows: Overweight Attractive /<br />
Underweight Cautious.<br />
Earnings Quality Score = 0.70*(Historical Earnings Stability) + 0.15*(Consensus Forecast Certainty) + 0.15*(Consensus Forecast<br />
Accuracy)<br />
1. Historical Earnings Stability<br />
- The variability of the net profit growth rate (YOY) over the last 20 quarters was translated into percentage terms.<br />
- Earnings growth variability was calculated based on MAD (Median Absolute Deviation), rather than SD (Standard Deviation) in order to<br />
minimize distortion from outliers.<br />
- The lower the earnings growth variability, the higher this indicator.<br />
2. Consensus Forecast Certainty<br />
- The gap between analysts' views on 12-month forward EPS was translated into percentage terms.<br />
- The gap is calculated by dividing the SD of 12-month forward EPS with the average value.<br />
- The narrower the gap is, the higher this indicator.<br />
3. Consensus Forecast Accuracy<br />
- The median value of absolute EPS surprise over the last 3-year was translated into percentage terms.<br />
- EPS surprise was calculated based on 'the actual figure at the end of the year / the consensus estimate at the beginning of the year - 1'.<br />
- The lower the absolute EPS surprise, the higher this indicator.<br />
* Reference<br />
1) Consensus Forecast Certainty and Consensus Forecast Accuracy were applied only to companies with more than 5 years of EPS<br />
estimates.<br />
2) We gave the average score of 50 to cases in which the aforementioned indicators could not be produced.<br />
Compliance Notice<br />
This report is distributed to our clients only, and none of the report material may be copied or distributed to any other party. While we have taken<br />
all reasonable care to ensure its reliability, we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Therefore, Mirae Asset shall not be liable for any<br />
result from the use of this report. As of Jan 18, Mirae Asset is entrusted to deal with the disposition and acquisition of treasury stock for SK<br />
Telecom.<br />
As of Feb 15, Mirae Asset Securities is SKT, KT's ELW issuer and LP.<br />
For China Merchants Bank (3968.HK), Bank of Communications (3328.HK), China Construction Bank (0939.HK), Bank of China (3988.HK),<br />
ICBC (1398.HK), China CITIC Bank (0998.HK), Guangzhou R&F Properties (2777.HK), and Li Ning (2331.HK):<br />
Mirae Asset HK (MAHK) has financial interest in China Merchant Bank as at January 31, 2008, but no financial interests in other companies as at<br />
January 31, 2008. MAHK does not act as a market maker of the companies on January 31, 2008. No employees of MAHK serve as an officer of<br />
the companies as at January 31, 2008. MAHK acts no investment banking roles for the companies within past 12 months.<br />
This report has never been provided to any institutional investor or third party. This report has been prepared without any undue external<br />
influence or interference, and accurately reflects the personal views of the analyst on the company herein.<br />
[Mirae Asset Securities Research]<br />
Item Analyst Type<br />
Securities Held by the Analyst<br />
Number of<br />
Shares<br />
Purchasing<br />
Price<br />
Purchasing<br />
Date<br />
Holdings of<br />
Shares over1%<br />
Participation in<br />
the Issuance of<br />
Securities<br />
Involvement<br />
with the<br />
Affiliates<br />
Treasury Stock<br />
Acquired<br />
Feb 15, 2008 MIRAE ASSET RESEARCH 29<br />
NA