Download PDF - ChartNexus

Tin Market Review 2011-2012 (cont’d)
36
World Production and Consumption Of Refined Tin
(‘000 tonnes) Forecast
Production
In the case of tin the inflow of speculative money coincided
with a tightening of the physical market, as world tin use
grew by some 13% and LME stocks fell to a low of just over
12,000 tonnes in October 2010. By this point LME prices
had recovered to over USD25,000/tonne and there was a
consensus view in the markets that prices of most metals (and
especially copper and tin) would continue to rise through
2011 and possibly for several years more. In this bull market,
tin was the top performer, with prices rising faster than all the
other LME metals
Although there were set-backs along the way, the broad
upward trend in metals prices continued until April 2011,
when tin prices reached an all-time peak in nominal terms.
However this final run-up in prices coincided with a move into
oversupply. Because the LME price was at times at a premium
to the Chinese domestic market between September 2010
and early May 2011, China exported large quantities of
tin. Chinese net exports of some 12,000 tonnes more than
accounted for the rise in LME stocks of some 10,000 tonnes
in this period. In addition supply from small-scale Indonesian
miners was rising strongly, while global solder shipments were
falling.
From May 2011 to the end of the year all base metals prices
plunged downwards on several occasions, as financial markets
have come close to panic over issues of sovereign debt and
deteriorating economic growth prospects. Just as tin rose
faster than average in 2010, so it dropped most sharply in
2011. This partly reflects the relative illiquidity of the market,
Building on Success: Developing Resources for the Future
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
China 137.5 140.6 155.0 160.0 164.0
Indonesia* 67.0 64.5 57.1 55.4 54.0
Malaysia 31.6 36.4 38.7 40.3 40.0
Thailand 21.7 19.3 23.5 23.9 21.0
Bolivia 12.7 15.0 15.0 14.3 15.0
Brazil 10.8 10.4 6.5 7.4 10.0
Peru 38.0 33.9 36.1 30.2 29.5
Belgium 9.2 8.7 9.9 10.0 12.0
Russia 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0
Others 7.8 6.1 7.0 7.1 7.5
Total World 337.7 335.9 349.8 349.4 354.0
Consumption
China 134.0 132.4 149.1 153.8 158.4
Japan 30.4 27.2 31.5 29.7 27.0
Other Asia 64.6 60.2 65.4 63.0 66.0
USA 30.0 26.4 28.8 28.5 30.0
Other Americas 18.7 16.8 21.4 19.9 20.5
Europe 67.6 55.8 62.3 62.0 61.0
Others 3.4 2.9 3.6 3.4 3.5
Total World 348.7 321.7 362.1 360.3 366.4
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
-2,000
-3,000
Jan
08
Apr
08
Jul
08
China a net importer again
Calculated trade balance in refined tin, tonnes
Net imports
Net exports
Oct
08
Jan
09
Apr
09
Jul
09
Exports deduced from third
countries’ imports – data
incomplete from June ’11
Oct
09
Jun
10
Apr
10
Jul
10
Oct
11
Jan
11
Apr
11
Jul
11
Oct
11