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orders may direct the PMOC to reevaluate the use or management of project contingency or<br />

contract packaging strategies on a periodic or event driven basis.<br />

These OP‐35 procedures are to be developed in concert with and to complement information from<br />

several additional operational procedures, especially including OP‐32, OP‐33, OP‐34, and OP‐40.<br />

Definitions and data established in those operational procedures are key elements of this OP‐35.<br />

6.1 Project Cost Contingency Review<br />

The PMOC shall fully identify, describe, and analyze the adequacy of the grantee’s cost<br />

contingencies. These forecasts shall be developed as a synthesis of both a “forward pass”<br />

establishment of contingency targets, using historically‐developed parameters; and a “backward<br />

pass” establishment of contingencies using project‐specific information. These two approaches<br />

shall be used to establish an overall minimum contingency curve, as described below.<br />

6.1.1 Forward Pass Cost Contingency Analysis<br />

The PMOC shall develop a “forward pass” set of minimum recommended cost contingency values<br />

for each of the following milestones, utilizing the recommended values. If the PMOC believes that<br />

the recommendations should be adjusted due to unique project conditions, any such adjustments<br />

should be explicitly highlighted and justifications provided.<br />

• At Entry into Preliminary Engineering, the working target for total contingency (defined as<br />

the aggregate of allocated and unallocated cost contingency, net of allowances and financing)<br />

is 30%.<br />

• At Entry into Final Design, the working target for total contingency is 20%.<br />

• At the award of a FFGA, the working target for total contingency is 15%.<br />

• At 90‐100% bid for the Grantee, or 90‐100% subcontracted for the prime contractor in an<br />

alternative project delivery method, the working target for total contingency is 10%.<br />

• At 50% physically complete for Construction, the working target for total contingency is 5%.<br />

6.1.2 Backward Pass Cost Contingency Analysis<br />

The PMOC shall develop a “backward pass” set of recommended cost contingency values that<br />

represent the minimum amount of total cost contingency expected to be necessary at Project<br />

Milestones (see OP‐40) and as also consistent with forward pass milestones. Total cost contingency<br />

includes scope changes or clarifications as well as schedule changes or delays. The PMOC shall<br />

develop estimates of minimum total cost contingencies based upon Grantee’s technical capacity,<br />

project delivery method management plan, and project strategy (if any).<br />

The following considerations shall be made in development of the backward pass contingency<br />

values:<br />

• At the Revenue Operations Date (ROD), the demand for total cost contingency has been<br />

OP 35 Project Contingency and Contract Package Review<br />

Revision 0, June 2008<br />

Page 3 of 10

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