Simple Methods and Procedures Used in Forecasting
Simple Methods and Procedures Used in Forecasting Simple Methods and Procedures Used in Forecasting
710000 700000 690000 680000 670000 660000 650000 640000 General Comparison Brown's Linear (double) Exponential Smoothing Brown's quadratic (ie, triple) smoothing model (graphically) Holt's method double exponential smoothing Forecasted value for 2008 real value Nonlinear smoothing model Trend model 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Brown's Linear (double) Exponential Smoothing Brown's quadratic (ie, triple) smoothing model Holt's method double exponential smoothing MAE absolute value of ex post error Nonlinear smoothing model Trend model
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- Page 1 and 2: Simple Methods and Procedures Used
- Page 3 and 4: Forecasting Methods Used in the Pro
- Page 5 and 6: The data that has been analyzed in
- Page 7 and 8: Linear Trend Analysis We applied Or
- Page 9 and 10: Linear Trend Analysis Linear trend
- Page 11 and 12: Coefficient of Determination, R 2 T
- Page 13 and 14: Coefficient of random variation V =
- Page 15 and 16: Exponential Exponential Exponential
- Page 17 and 18: Brown's quadratic (triple) smoothin
- Page 19 and 20: Nonlinear smoothing 950.000 900.000
- Page 21: Summary of Results 705000 700000 69
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General Comparison<br />
Brown's L<strong>in</strong>ear<br />
(double)<br />
Exponential<br />
Smooth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Brown's<br />
quadratic (ie,<br />
triple) smooth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
model<br />
(graphically)<br />
Holt's method<br />
double<br />
exponential<br />
smooth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Forecasted value for 2008<br />
real value<br />
Nonl<strong>in</strong>ear<br />
smooth<strong>in</strong>g model<br />
Trend model<br />
35000<br />
30000<br />
25000<br />
20000<br />
15000<br />
10000<br />
5000<br />
0<br />
Brown's<br />
L<strong>in</strong>ear<br />
(double)<br />
Exponential<br />
Smooth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Brown's<br />
quadratic (ie,<br />
triple)<br />
smooth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
model<br />
Holt's method<br />
double<br />
exponential<br />
smooth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
MAE<br />
absolute value of ex post<br />
error<br />
Nonl<strong>in</strong>ear<br />
smooth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
model<br />
Trend model
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