Simple Methods and Procedures Used in Forecasting
Simple Methods and Procedures Used in Forecasting
Simple Methods and Procedures Used in Forecasting
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Summary of Results<br />
Brown's L<strong>in</strong>ear (double) Exponential<br />
Smooth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Brown's quadratic ( triple) smooth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
model<br />
Holt's method double exponential<br />
smooth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Nonl<strong>in</strong>ear smooth<strong>in</strong>g<br />
model<br />
Real value of born baby´s <strong>in</strong> the<br />
year 2008<br />
MAE<br />
19932<br />
29244<br />
17831<br />
16726<br />
Forecasted<br />
value<br />
for<br />
2008<br />
676589<br />
698999<br />
672391<br />
677927<br />
674728<br />
ex post<br />
error<br />
-1861<br />
-24271<br />
2337<br />
-3199<br />
absolute<br />
value of<br />
ex post<br />
error<br />
1861<br />
24271<br />
2337<br />
3199
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