PDF, GB, 139 p., 796 Ko - Femise
PDF, GB, 139 p., 796 Ko - Femise PDF, GB, 139 p., 796 Ko - Femise
Poland) to 1997 (Slovenia), schedules of elimination of tariffs and non-tariff barriers on industrial products had one important element in common. They all had to be completed by the target date of January 1, 2002. The liberalization of trade in agricultural goods between the EU and the CEECs, however, did not take place until the two waves of enlargement of the EU to the East in 2004 and 2007. Only since then the CEECs have been able to participate fully in the EU Single Market. In addition to trade liberalization with the West the CEE countries liberalized trade among themselves creating a matrix of bilateral and sub regional free trade agreements. The most important of these was the Central European Free Trade Area established by former Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland. The CEFTA agreement was signed on December 21, 1992 and entered into force on March 1, 1993. The initial CEFTA agreements eliminated tariffs on approximately 40 percent of industrial goods. Trade in industrial goods and some agricultural products was further liberalized through a series of additional protocols, mostly signed in 1994 and 1995. By 1996 almost 80 percent of CEFTA trade in industrial products were free of tariffs. By 1999 tariffs were abolished on almost all industrial products except a minor list of “sensitive” products. The CEFTA membership gradually expanded overtime to include Slovenia (1996), Romania (1997), Bulgaria (1991) and Croatia (2003). The CEFTA agreement was supposed to include also three newly independent Baltic States: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania that emerged from the former Soviet Union after its collapse in 1991. However, these three countries - in about the same time when CEFTA was built - created their own Baltic Free Trade Area (BAFTA). In contrast to CEFTA, BAFTA did not enlarge its membership but the coverage of the agreement was increased over time at a faster pace than in the CEFTA member states. In particular, by January 1, 1997 BAFTA included not only industrial but also agricultural and fish products. In this way BAFTA became the first free trade area in the region that provided for completely liberalized trade in these politically sensitive areas. Consequently, the significant differences in the pace and the coverage of trade liberalization between the BAFTA and the CEFTA member states did not allow creating a single free trade area that would embrace all the CEE countries before their 7
accession to the EU. Instead, a number of bilateral trade agreements between the BAFTA and the CEFTA countries was signed that complemented sub-regional trade liberalization in Central and Eastern Europe. We study here the trade effects of the Europe Agreements for bilateral imports and exports of the CEE countries using the generalized gravity equation that can be derived from neoclassical and new trade theory models that assume incomplete specialization in production. In our study we control for the effects of other both plurilateral and bilateral free trade agreements concluded by the CEE countries among themselves as well as with countries located outside the region. We analyze the impact of the association agreements for both exports and imports separately. The generalized estimating equation that encompasses particular estimating equations is derived from various theoretical models. Apart of standard variables, related to distance, GDP, capital/labour ratio or regional trade agreements we also used dummies indicating whether countries share a common border, a common language and/or a same colonizer. We find that the Europe Agreements as well as BAFTA and CEFTA significantly contributed to increase in both bilateral exports and imports of the CEEC countries. Moreover, the estimates obtained for BAFTA were of higher magnitude than those obtained for CEFTA. This is in line with our initial expectations given the fact that the BAFTA agreement included not only industrial but also agricultural and marine products. 1.2. EUROMED, bilateral and Agadir Agreements Unlike trade liberalization with the Central and East European countries trade liberalization with the MPCs was a gradual process that lasted over three decades and is in fact not completed at the time of writing. Moreover, unlike the CEE countries that radically liberalized their trade with the EU in the 1990s, exports from the MPCs have enjoyed preferential treatment by the EU for many years. The first generation Euro- Mediterranean Association Agreements with the selected MPCs that provided free access for their manufactures exports to the EU countries were concluded already at the end of 1960s and early 1970’s. 8
- Page 1 and 2: In collaboration with: F E M I S E
- Page 3 and 4: Table of contents INTRODUCTION AND
- Page 5 and 6: Introduction and summary In the pro
- Page 7: that of the NMS, we would observe a
- Page 11 and 12: trade area (FTA). The Agadir Agreem
- Page 13 and 14: liberalization has taken five years
- Page 15 and 16: signed Europe Agreements, EFTA and
- Page 17 and 18: used as industry organization varia
- Page 19 and 20: The main goal of the project was to
- Page 21 and 22: Chapter 1: Assessing trade liberali
- Page 23 and 24: Agricultural Policy (CAP). Further
- Page 25 and 26: Agreements concluded with the MPCs.
- Page 27 and 28: n lnTijt = ∑ k= 1 β RTAijt + α1
- Page 29 and 30: Preferential trade liberalization i
- Page 31 and 32: the EU enlargement, the EFTA lost t
- Page 33 and 34: The most important of these was the
- Page 35 and 36: The Definitions of the Variables an
- Page 37 and 38: Estimates for the whole CEE sample
- Page 39 and 40: agreements is, however, mixed. Whil
- Page 41 and 42: The OLS estimates suggest that both
- Page 43 and 44: Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Lith
- Page 45 and 46: Czech Slovak Republic Estonia Hunga
- Page 47 and 48: products. The provisions of the Eur
- Page 49 and 50: foreseen to take effect in 2005. Ho
- Page 51 and 52: Similar to the AMU, the ACC was for
- Page 53 and 54: Unfortunately, the data on capital
- Page 55 and 56: Table 2. The estimates for bilatera
- Page 57 and 58: obust, while the dummy variable for
accession to the EU. Instead, a number of bilateral trade agreements between the<br />
BAFTA and the CEFTA countries was signed that complemented sub-regional trade<br />
liberalization in Central and Eastern Europe.<br />
We study here the trade effects of the Europe Agreements for bilateral imports and<br />
exports of the CEE countries using the generalized gravity equation that can be derived<br />
from neoclassical and new trade theory models that assume incomplete specialization in<br />
production. In our study we control for the effects of other both plurilateral and bilateral<br />
free trade agreements concluded by the CEE countries among themselves as well as<br />
with countries located outside the region. We analyze the impact of the association<br />
agreements for both exports and imports separately.<br />
The generalized estimating equation that encompasses particular estimating equations is<br />
derived from various theoretical models. Apart of standard variables, related to distance,<br />
GDP, capital/labour ratio or regional trade agreements we also used dummies indicating<br />
whether countries share a common border, a common language and/or a same colonizer.<br />
We find that the Europe Agreements as well as BAFTA and CEFTA significantly<br />
contributed to increase in both bilateral exports and imports of the CEEC countries.<br />
Moreover, the estimates obtained for BAFTA were of higher magnitude than those<br />
obtained for CEFTA. This is in line with our initial expectations given the fact that the<br />
BAFTA agreement included not only industrial but also agricultural and marine<br />
products.<br />
1.2. EUROMED, bilateral and Agadir Agreements<br />
Unlike trade liberalization with the Central and East European countries trade<br />
liberalization with the MPCs was a gradual process that lasted over three decades and is<br />
in fact not completed at the time of writing. Moreover, unlike the CEE countries that<br />
radically liberalized their trade with the EU in the 1990s, exports from the MPCs have<br />
enjoyed preferential treatment by the EU for many years. The first generation Euro-<br />
Mediterranean Association Agreements with the selected MPCs that provided free<br />
access for their manufactures exports to the EU countries were concluded already at the<br />
end of 1960s and early 1970’s.<br />
8
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