PDF, GB, 139 p., 796 Ko - Femise
PDF, GB, 139 p., 796 Ko - Femise PDF, GB, 139 p., 796 Ko - Femise
Table 3. The estimates for bilateral exports of the MPCs [robust t-statistics] OLS RE FE 2FE 2FEIV Explanatory variables (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) EU-Association Agreement 0.500 -0.244 -0.219 -0.255 -0.126 [8.48]*** [2.93]*** [2.50]** [4.22]*** [1.87]* EFTA 0.324 -0.313 -0.341 0.118 0.297 [2.80]*** [1.82]* [1.97]** [0.90] [2.24]** AMU 1.084 1.037 0.985 1.019 0.753 [6.80]*** [4.92]*** [4.58]*** [5.13]*** [3.62]*** ACC 0.742 0.861 0.888 0.485 0.019 [3.28]*** [1.13] [1.17] [1.91]* [0.03] jordanmorocco 1.702 0.699 0.513 0.685 0.668 [7.09]*** [1.47] [1.08] [3.85]*** [3.64]*** moroccotunisia -0.271 -0.986 -0.99 -0.6 -0.465 [1.59] [2.02]** [2.04]** [3.32]*** [2.46]** egypttunisia 0.441 -0.448 -0.559 0.775 0.768 [3.07]*** [0.94] [1.18] [5.15]*** [4.92]*** egyptjordan 0.488 0.183 -0.058 -0.113 -0.093 [2.27]** [0.38] [0.12] [0.56] [0.45] egyptmorocco 0.882 0.579 0.557 1.005 0.998 [4.18]*** [1.21] [1.17] [5.62]*** [5.74]*** jordantunisia 1.32 -0.314 -0.591 0.527 0.577 [7.73]*** [0.66] [1.24] [2.14]** [2.35]** moroccouae 0.867 0.399 -0.149 -0.258 -0.249 [10.09]*** [0.45] [0.17] [1.25] [1.16] jordanlebanon 1.968 -0.454 -0.676 0.443 0.386 [23.12]*** [0.59] [0.88] [1.01] [0.91] egyptsyria 0.542 3.535 3.568 0.339 0.429 [4.90]*** [6.21]*** [6.21]*** [1.42] [1.76]* jordansudan 2.56 0.401 0.21 2.115 2.099 [28.32]*** [0.27] [0.14] [9.77]*** [9.56]*** jordansyria 1.515 -0.011 -0.298 0.114 0.234 [7.97]*** [0.01] [0.34] [0.45] [0.93] jordanbahrain 2.268 -0.362 -0.675 1.556 1.312 [15.91]*** [0.41] [0.76] [6.27]*** [5.47]*** jordanuae 2.663 0.11 -0.695 1.884 1.89 [23.84]*** [0.14] [0.88] [7.68]*** [7.58]*** israelturkey 0.907 0.943 0.81 0.579 0.652 [5.35]*** [2.17]** [1.86]* [1.37] [1.48] bulgaria 0.316 0.959 1.171 -0.712 -0.483 [2.07]** [1.78]* [2.18]** [3.57]*** [2.28]** czech 0.165 0.109 0.157 0.723 0.785 [1.67]* [0.19] [0.26] [3.89]*** [4.48]*** estonia 1.177 1.624 1.907 1.565 1.348 [8.53]*** [2.09]** [2.39]** [5.77]*** [5.61]*** hungary 0.286 0.539 0.67 0.64 0.869 [3.25]*** [1.19] [1.48] [3.90]*** [5.35]*** latvia 0.918 1.012 1.241 1.347 1.398 [10.40]*** [1.22] [1.48] [5.51]*** [5.55]*** lithuania 0.851 1.125 1.328 1.396 1.15 [5.32]*** [1.45] [1.66]* [4.49]*** [3.57]*** poland 0.245 0.338 0.463 0.484 0.628 [2.08]** [0.63] [0.86] [2.97]*** [4.14]*** romania 0.544 0.388 0.483 -0.103 -0.056 [4.81]*** [0.70] [0.87] [0.46] [0.23] slovakia -0.292 -0.008 0.12 0.657 0.743 [2.26]** [0.01] [0.20] [3.23]*** [3.46]*** slovenia 1.06 0.441 0.449 0.479 0.672 [10.31]*** [0.79] [0.79] [2.13]** [2.95]*** croatia 1.027 0.918 1.034 0.414 0.522 [15.48]*** [0.83] [0.94] [2.60]*** [3.12]*** canada 0.838 -0.011 -0.118 0.45 0.607 [8.43]*** [0.02] [0.19] [3.12]*** [4.35]*** mexico -0.414 -0.197 -0.124 -0.761 -0.878 [4.83]*** [0.22] [0.14] [4.73]*** [5.56]*** us 1.813 1.166 1.091 0.832 0.915 [15.99]*** [2.16]** [1.96]* [5.04]*** [5.42]*** 57
Yi (partner) 0.944 1.009 2.267 1.966 1.594 [53.60]*** [18.48]*** [7.69]*** [4.79]*** [3.80]*** Yj (reporting) 1.004 1.032 1.832 1.128 1.243 [115.32]*** [38.14]*** [11.62]*** [5.63]*** [5.78]*** K/Li (partner) 0.797 0.916 0.602 0.867 1.06 [32.35]*** [12.05]*** [2.55]** [2.75]*** [3.24]*** K/Lj (reporting) 0.371 0.162 -0.974 -0.291 -0.349 [22.73]*** [3.79]*** [6.62]*** [1.54] [1.70]* DISTANCEij -1.227 -1.211 -1.492 -1.533 [57.95]*** [17.60]*** [31.28]*** [32.45]*** COLONYij 1.229 1.592 0.687 0.651 [17.54]*** [3.99]*** [8.12]*** [7.75]*** COLONIZERij 0.767 0.537 0.451 0.515 [11.91]*** [3.09]*** [6.16]*** [6.81]*** ARABICij 0.666 0.822 0.91 0.834 [13.87]*** [5.63]*** [12.97]*** [11.62]*** TURKISHij -0.08 0.078 -0.807 -0.405 [0.23] [0.05] [2.16]** [1.67]* CONTIGUITYij -0.314 -0.272 -0.037 -0.029 [2.36]** [0.70] [0.25] [0.20] Constant -40.728 -42.944 -90.601 -61.245 -55.98 [73.09]*** [26.35]*** [13.97]*** [7.12]*** [6.32]*** Observations 18839 18839 18839 18839 16635 R-squared 0.61 0.59 0.15 0.69 0.69 F test: time dum. 9.08 117.61 6.67 2.84 3.1 Prob > F 0 0 0 0 0 Notes: - ***, **, * significant at the 1%, 5% and 10% levels of statistical significance, respectively. In contrast to the estimation results obtained previously for bilateral imports it turns out that the results obtained for the EU Association Agreements are not robust with respect to the choice of the estimation method. While the estimated coefficient on the indicator variable for the EU Association Agreements is positive and statistically significant when the gravity model is estimated by the simple OLS method it changes its sign and loses statistical significance when more appropriate panel techniques are employed. This result is, however, not very surprising given the fact that the liberalization of the MPC exports to the EU was a gradual process that extended over three decades and in the 1990s there was not much left to liberalize except trade in agricultural goods. The results obtained for particular bilateral trade agreements concluded between the future members of the Agadir group are also not robust. Surprisingly, the indicator variable for the AMU is positive and statistically significant across all the specifications which suggests that this plurilateral agreement was successful in stimulating exports at least of some MPCs. 30 Unlike the results obtained for the AMU, our estimation results show also the impact 30 This result is surprising given the fact that the Arab Maghreb Union was never fully implemented. Perhaps, our dummy variable for the Arab Maghreb Union captures some other effects common to these countries the positively affect their bilateral trade flows. 58
- Page 7 and 8: that of the NMS, we would observe a
- Page 9 and 10: accession to the EU. Instead, a num
- Page 11 and 12: trade area (FTA). The Agadir Agreem
- Page 13 and 14: liberalization has taken five years
- Page 15 and 16: signed Europe Agreements, EFTA and
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- Page 21 and 22: Chapter 1: Assessing trade liberali
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- Page 27 and 28: n lnTijt = ∑ k= 1 β RTAijt + α1
- Page 29 and 30: Preferential trade liberalization i
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- Page 35 and 36: The Definitions of the Variables an
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- Page 43 and 44: Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Lith
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- Page 49 and 50: foreseen to take effect in 2005. Ho
- Page 51 and 52: Similar to the AMU, the ACC was for
- Page 53 and 54: Unfortunately, the data on capital
- Page 55 and 56: Table 2. The estimates for bilatera
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- Page 61 and 62: Table 4. The estimates for bilatera
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Table 3. The estimates for bilateral exports of the MPCs<br />
[robust t-statistics]<br />
OLS RE FE 2FE 2FEIV<br />
Explanatory variables<br />
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5)<br />
EU-Association Agreement 0.500 -0.244 -0.219 -0.255 -0.126<br />
[8.48]*** [2.93]*** [2.50]** [4.22]*** [1.87]*<br />
EFTA 0.324 -0.313 -0.341 0.118 0.297<br />
[2.80]*** [1.82]* [1.97]** [0.90] [2.24]**<br />
AMU 1.084 1.037 0.985 1.019 0.753<br />
[6.80]*** [4.92]*** [4.58]*** [5.13]*** [3.62]***<br />
ACC 0.742 0.861 0.888 0.485 0.019<br />
[3.28]*** [1.13] [1.17] [1.91]* [0.03]<br />
jordanmorocco 1.702 0.699 0.513 0.685 0.668<br />
[7.09]*** [1.47] [1.08] [3.85]*** [3.64]***<br />
moroccotunisia -0.271 -0.986 -0.99 -0.6 -0.465<br />
[1.59] [2.02]** [2.04]** [3.32]*** [2.46]**<br />
egypttunisia 0.441 -0.448 -0.559 0.775 0.768<br />
[3.07]*** [0.94] [1.18] [5.15]*** [4.92]***<br />
egyptjordan 0.488 0.183 -0.058 -0.113 -0.093<br />
[2.27]** [0.38] [0.12] [0.56] [0.45]<br />
egyptmorocco 0.882 0.579 0.557 1.005 0.998<br />
[4.18]*** [1.21] [1.17] [5.62]*** [5.74]***<br />
jordantunisia 1.32 -0.314 -0.591 0.527 0.577<br />
[7.73]*** [0.66] [1.24] [2.14]** [2.35]**<br />
moroccouae 0.867 0.399 -0.149 -0.258 -0.249<br />
[10.09]*** [0.45] [0.17] [1.25] [1.16]<br />
jordanlebanon 1.968 -0.454 -0.676 0.443 0.386<br />
[23.12]*** [0.59] [0.88] [1.01] [0.91]<br />
egyptsyria 0.542 3.535 3.568 0.339 0.429<br />
[4.90]*** [6.21]*** [6.21]*** [1.42] [1.76]*<br />
jordansudan 2.56 0.401 0.21 2.115 2.099<br />
[28.32]*** [0.27] [0.14] [9.77]*** [9.56]***<br />
jordansyria 1.515 -0.011 -0.298 0.114 0.234<br />
[7.97]*** [0.01] [0.34] [0.45] [0.93]<br />
jordanbahrain 2.268 -0.362 -0.675 1.556 1.312<br />
[15.91]*** [0.41] [0.76] [6.27]*** [5.47]***<br />
jordanuae 2.663 0.11 -0.695 1.884 1.89<br />
[23.84]*** [0.14] [0.88] [7.68]*** [7.58]***<br />
israelturkey 0.907 0.943 0.81 0.579 0.652<br />
[5.35]*** [2.17]** [1.86]* [1.37] [1.48]<br />
bulgaria 0.316 0.959 1.171 -0.712 -0.483<br />
[2.07]** [1.78]* [2.18]** [3.57]*** [2.28]**<br />
czech 0.165 0.109 0.157 0.723 0.785<br />
[1.67]* [0.19] [0.26] [3.89]*** [4.48]***<br />
estonia 1.177 1.624 1.907 1.565 1.348<br />
[8.53]*** [2.09]** [2.39]** [5.77]*** [5.61]***<br />
hungary 0.286 0.539 0.67 0.64 0.869<br />
[3.25]*** [1.19] [1.48] [3.90]*** [5.35]***<br />
latvia 0.918 1.012 1.241 1.347 1.398<br />
[10.40]*** [1.22] [1.48] [5.51]*** [5.55]***<br />
lithuania 0.851 1.125 1.328 1.396 1.15<br />
[5.32]*** [1.45] [1.66]* [4.49]*** [3.57]***<br />
poland 0.245 0.338 0.463 0.484 0.628<br />
[2.08]** [0.63] [0.86] [2.97]*** [4.14]***<br />
romania 0.544 0.388 0.483 -0.103 -0.056<br />
[4.81]*** [0.70] [0.87] [0.46] [0.23]<br />
slovakia -0.292 -0.008 0.12 0.657 0.743<br />
[2.26]** [0.01] [0.20] [3.23]*** [3.46]***<br />
slovenia 1.06 0.441 0.449 0.479 0.672<br />
[10.31]*** [0.79] [0.79] [2.13]** [2.95]***<br />
croatia 1.027 0.918 1.034 0.414 0.522<br />
[15.48]*** [0.83] [0.94] [2.60]*** [3.12]***<br />
canada 0.838 -0.011 -0.118 0.45 0.607<br />
[8.43]*** [0.02] [0.19] [3.12]*** [4.35]***<br />
mexico -0.414 -0.197 -0.124 -0.761 -0.878<br />
[4.83]*** [0.22] [0.14] [4.73]*** [5.56]***<br />
us 1.813 1.166 1.091 0.832 0.915<br />
[15.99]*** [2.16]** [1.96]* [5.04]*** [5.42]***<br />
57
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