Impact of global energy (crude oil) situation on ... - Federplast.be

<strong>Impact</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>global</strong> <strong>energy</strong> (<strong>crude</strong> <strong>oil</strong>) <strong>situation</strong> on
plastics development

The economic development and demographics
determine the <strong>energy</strong> needs
Consommation d’énergie
par habitant (tep)
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
CHINE
1
0
INDE
MONDE
COREE
CANADA
EUROPE
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Source : AIE =Agence Internationale de l’Energie
PPA= Parité Pouvoir d’Achat OCDE
1960-2001 ou 1971-2001
US
JAPON
PIB/habitant en k$1995 corrigé PPA
2

The <strong>crude</strong> <strong>oil</strong> consumption is depending on …
family equipment …
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Nombre de voitures pour 1000 habitants
1973 1980 1985 1990 1995 2001 2003
Union Européenne Turquie Etats-unis
Corée du sud Japon Argentine
Chine Inde
3

18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
Consommation urbaine en
litres aux 100km)
…and personal choices…
120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260
Vitesse maximale (km/h)
Source: INRETS = Institut National de Recherche sur les Transports et leur Sécurité
4

250
200
150
100
50
… and building & construction techniques …
0
Consommation kWh/m 2
Avant
1974
- 60%
-85%
1974 1982 1989 2000 2005 Long
terme
5

Demand will continue to grow, and gas and <strong>crude</strong> <strong>oil</strong>
will remain the main source at short medium term
Milliards de
Tep
16
12
8
4
57%
0
Energy demand growth
+ 60%
10,3
13 %
7%
23 %
21 21 %
%
36 %
60%
16,5
13 %
5%
22 %
25 %
35 %
2002 2030
Hydro +
Renouv.
Nucléaire
Charbon
Gaz
Pétrole
Milliards de
tonnes
Tep = Tonne équivalent pétrole
3.7
55%
24 %
8 %
2002
Source: Rapport World Energy Outlook 2004 de l’AIE
Crude <strong>oil</strong>: share <strong>of</strong> transport
5.8
60 %
22 %
5 %
2030
Transport
(carburant)
Pétrochimie
Mat. premières
Chauffage
Électricité
6

Proven reserves <strong>of</strong> fossil fuel and gas will allow to face
this challenge …
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
Réserves prouvées de pétrole et de gaz (Mds bep)
Pétrole : réserves
prouvées
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2004
Pétrole
Gaz
39
53
28 27 29
Gaz : réserves
prouvées
Réserves prouvées / production (années)
65 67 68
1970 1980 1990 2000 2004
40
43
Reserves <strong>crude</strong> <strong>oil</strong> & gas:
•Proven: > 2000 Mds bep
•Potential additional: > 1000
Mds bep
• Proven reserves are growing thanks to technology and investments
• Investments are a must for production capacity development
bep= baril équivalent pétrole
Reserves more
important for gas
than <strong>crude</strong> <strong>oil</strong>
7

Peak <strong>oil</strong> ?…
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Production
en Mb/jour Selon rapport WEO
de l’AIE en 2005
Réserves
prouvées
2005
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070
Sources: AIE; TOTAL
Demande 1%
Demande 1,5%
8

Taking into account this <strong>global</strong> <strong>energy</strong> <strong>situation</strong>,….
Are plastics eco-efficient and a correct
use <strong>of</strong> <strong>of</strong> natural resources ?
9

The answer: Life Cycle Thinking!
10

Cradle: Does plastic influence <strong>oil</strong> and gas
availability?
Transport
45%
NO!
Other (non<strong>energy</strong>
use)
5%
Heat, electricity
and <strong>energy</strong>
42%
Plastics
4%
Chem/
petrochem
feedstock
4%
11

Grave: Recycling and Energy Recovery across EU25+NO/CH
2006
Recycling Energy recovery
12

A new opportunity
Plastics use 4% <strong>of</strong> total <strong>oil</strong>
Significant contribution to <strong>energy</strong>
saving & Co2 reduction targets
Plastics in use save each year 5,150 Million Giga Joules in EU 25.
13

Plastics in use save each year
5,150 Million Giga Joules in EU25.
This is the equivalent <strong>of</strong> 120 Millions tons
<strong>of</strong> <strong>oil</strong> or 216 giant tanker queuing a
continuous line <strong>of</strong> 99 kilometers.
… or 10 % total EU 25
<strong>energy</strong> consumption in
2002
14

Transport
• Innovative products make it possible to cut CO2
emissions and <strong>energy</strong> consumption:
• Plastics are light
– Weight savings resulted in an average
fuel consumption cut <strong>of</strong> 750 liters per
life span <strong>of</strong> 150, 000 km
– On a year basis thanks to plastics, Fuel
consumption <strong>of</strong> cars is reduced by 12
Millions Tons and CO2 emissions by 30
Millions Tons.
• Plastics allow aerodynamics design (lower
Cx) resulting in lower consumption.
15

Transport
• The Airbus 380 has
22% carbon fibre
plastic composites
giving a 15% fuel
saving
• The % will grow up
to 50% for the Boeing
787 Dreamliner
16

Plastics packaging: When more is less
On average only 1 to 3% <strong>of</strong> the weight <strong>of</strong> a packaged product in
plastics comes from the packaging:
•A plastic film <strong>of</strong> 2g packages 200g <strong>of</strong> cheese
•A plastic Bottle <strong>of</strong> 35g packages 1,5 liter <strong>of</strong> drinks
Inclusive the logistic packaging it grows up to 3,56% on
average
PLASTIC
POUCHES
3.56%
IS PACKAGING
GLASS JARS
36% IS
PACKAGING
Without plastics, retailers’ fleets would make 50% more journeys
17

Enabling the ‘positive <strong>energy</strong>’ home
PVC
Triple
Glazing
Central ventilation
station with heat
recuperation
Fuel Cell
PUR
Ro<strong>of</strong> insulation
Latent
Heat Storage
Plaster
Solar
Panel
EPS
Insulation
18
Quelle: BASF

What if we would substitute plastics by other material
where possible ?
Energy needed to produce use and
recover plastics in western EU:
3900 Millions GJ/year
+ 26 %
or + 1020 Millions GJ/year
Energy needed in case <strong>of</strong> substitution,
even partial:
4920 Millions GJ/year
1020 M GJ/year represent 22.4 Millions tons <strong>of</strong> <strong>oil</strong>, or:
• Heating and warm water for 40 millions people (half <strong>of</strong>
Germany)
19

What if we would substitute plastics by other
material where possible ?
CO 2
CO2 emissions to produce, use,
and recover plastics in
Western EU:
173 Millions t/year
+ 56 %,
or 97 Millions tons/year
CO 2
CO 2 emissions in Western EU
in case <strong>of</strong> substitution, even
partial:
270 Millions t/year
97 Millions t/year represent a CO 2 emission reduction equivalent to:
• 30% <strong>of</strong> Kyoto reduction objectives for EU 15 in the period 2000-2012 (319
Mt/year)
• Total CO2emissions <strong>of</strong> 90% <strong>of</strong> cars in Germany
20

Renewable energies are only feasible with plastics
21

Renewable energies are only feasible with plastics
22

Plastics and disease prevention
In recent years, the evolution <strong>of</strong>
plastic materials has progressed
hand in hand with health care
developments. Scientists have
developed new devices such as
syringes, blisters, catheters, fluid
bags, heart valves and others to
restore functionality in hearts,
bones, kidneys, ears and eyes.
Plastic is an ideal material for these advances as it is aseptic,
guaranteeing biocompatibility with the human body as well as safety
and hygiene. Plastics are also a crucial component in hi-tech
equipment and in machinery used in hospitals and medical research,
as well as in animal care and veterinary sciences.
23

Span <strong>of</strong> life time 120-130 years?
• Furthermore, thanks to polymeric biocompatible
solutions, it is possible to apply reconstructive solutions
for bones and tendons and perform micro-sounds.
24

Span <strong>of</strong> life time 120-130 years?
• Development <strong>of</strong> Robots
25

Nanotechnologies
EPS + Graphit = Neopor ®
IR-Absorber
Graphit
Source: BASF
26

The trick: Absorption/reflection <strong>of</strong> IR radiation
Low density,
thin membranes
(

Exponential technology development
• In the past decades, plastic materials have revolutionised the way
we communicate, travel, play sport, and protect our health and
environment.
• Versatile and eco-efficient, plastic plays an active role in scientific
and technological innovations aimed at improving our quality <strong>of</strong> life.
• Plastic is present in more complex and challenging applications such
as nanotechnology, as well as in everyday objects such as mobile
phones.
• From aerospace and electronics to architecture to transport and
smart packaging to sports to medicine, there is no sector where
plastic has not contributed to solutions unimaginable even few years
ago.
• Its never-ending, amazing, dynamic evolution makes plastic the
material for the 21st century
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