2. ENVIRONMENTAL ChEMISTRy & TEChNOLOGy 2.1. Lectures

Chem. Listy, 102, s265–s1311 (2008) Environmental Chemistry & Technology
P43 RISKS FACTORS OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT
AS ENVIRONMENT FOR MANAGEMENT
IVAn MAŠEK a and JAROMíR nOVáK b
a Brno University of Technology, Faculty of Chemistry, Purkynova
118, Brno, 612 00, Czech Republic,
b Palacký University Olomouc, Philosophical Faculty, Krizkovskeho
12, Olomouc, 771 80, Czech Republic,
masek@fch.vutbr.cz
Introduction
All things, phenomena, and processes have their own
causes and consequences. They bring along pros and cons;
they can be controlled and chaotic, can and cannot be influenced.
Social development has been getting more and more
complicated, undergoing fast changes; being difficult to predict.
If the last century was said to be a century of changes,
this feature will be more significant and determining for further
development. There is more and more urgent need to ask
questions about further development and search for answers
to them. What is our future going to be like? What factors
are there going to become determinants for further phenomena
and processes management? It is necessary to deal with
negative consequences of our decision making processes. For
the purpose of this contribution, concerning the topic of the
conference, We are going to try to briefly describe some of
the crucial factors development, which could be considered
as risks.
Authors think that everybody can be influenced by them,
as well as influence them him/herself. This concerns especially
those people who manage.
Risk factors
F a c t o r 1 – P o p u l a t i o n
A c c u m u l a t i o n D y n a m i c s
The number of the Earth population grows unevenly,
especially in materially immature countries. In materially
mature countries the birth rate is descending, there are a
growing number of seniors. This will evoke changes in processes
as well as in number and quality of human population,
its behaviour and migration.
Population aging will influence its integration into
economic and other socially significant processes. Social
and health systems, material and non-material needs, such
as boarding, dressing, hygiene, travelling, free time, home
equipment; relationship between people and generations will
change. Country defence potential will change, too.It is a big
difference between the needs to negate poverty with a lack of
capital and material production, and, on the contrary, to offer
capital and material production to poverty.
F a c t o r 2 – I n e q u a l i t y o f t h e W o r l d
W e a l t h
There are a few countries that experience a relative prosperity.
On the other hand it is estimated that up to two billions
of people suffer absolute poverty. There are about fifteen
s420
countries on the planet which record growth, but more than a
hundred countries record descent or stagnation. According to
some records there are 85 % shopping expenses for 20 % of
the richest people. On the other hand 20 % of the poorest people
must settle for 1.1 % of the world incomes (as compared
to 1.4 % in 1991 and 2.3 in 1960).
More than a billion people do not have access to medical
services, basic education or drinkable water, two billions
do not have electricity and 80 % of the world population do
not have the slightest possibility to telecommunicate and this
access new information and communication technologies,
which can, for example, enable distant studies.
It has also been found out that if the world population
used the same ways of development and consumption as
north America, we would need three planets like the Earth
is.
The gap between the rich and the poor is getting bigger.
On one side there are great chances to balance the inequalities,
and on the other side they are being deepened. The problems
of justice are to be seriously dealt with. The poor can
not pay for the prosperity of the rich.
The inequalities are deepened not only among countries,
or the north and the South, but also among people inside the
countries. For instance, in the USA the rate between the highest
and the lowest salaries has risen from 35 multiple up to
150 multiple within the last 20 years. We witness deepening
of inequalities even here in our republic. Is it right for the
poor to contribute the rich? How long will it last to the poor
to start taking from the rich or at least make their wealth less
pleasant? There are such cases and most probably there will
be more and more of them.
F a c t o r 3 – T h e E n v i r o n m e n t
Pressure caused by human activities having impact
on nature systems is huge. Generally, it is connected with
great material movement. Unrenewable resources are being
fatigued, wasted, species of fauna and flora perish, water
and air are being polluted, and number of natural as well as
human-caused disasters is growing.
There have been mostly warning and non-optimistic statements
published in the last few years. They are often contradictory.
Yet, they have something in common – they make
us think and act. Acting in the sense of adequate performance
does not appear very often. It is so for many reasons.
Europe, as well as other continents, is going to face
droughts and floods. Water level of seas can rise up to one
meter. There is a threat of devastating winds. World map is
expected to change.
According to the Living Planet Report, published by
the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), standards of our lives can
collapse in three decades. It is because we have been withdrawing
from the planet every year up to one fifth more than
the planet is able to renew. If the development continues this
way, the biological capacity withdrawal deficit will reach up
to 220 % in the half of the century.