Accepted Papers - 3.pdf - UNESCO

1.3 % annually, and the total energy consumption in
2025 is projected at 8,226 Mst. Of the coal produced
worldwide in 2002, 65 %was supplied to electric
power producers and 31 % to industrial consumers.
In the industrial sector coal is an important input for
the manufacture of steel and for the production for
the manufacture of steel and for the production of
steam and direct heat for other industrial applications.
Coal is expected to maintain its importance as an
energy source in both the electric power and industrial
sectors, with the two sectors combined accounting
for virtually all the growth in coal use in the midterm
forecast.
World net electricity consumption nearly
doubles in the reference case forecast, 14,275 billion
kilowatt-hours in 2002 to 21,400 billion kilowatthours
in 2015 and 26,018 billion kilowatt-hours in
2025. Coal and natural gas are expected to remain
the most important fuels for electricity generation
throughout the forecast, accounting for 62 percent
of the energy used for electricity production in 2025.
2.2 Environmental Aspects
Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one of the most
relevant greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Anthropogenic i.e. human caused emissions of
carbon dioxide result primarily from the combustion
of fossil fuels for energy, and as a result world energy
use has emerged at the center of the climate change
debate. The world carbon dioxide emissions are
projected to rise from 24.4 billion metric tons (Bmt)
in 2002 to 30.2 Bmt in 2010 and 38.8 Bmt in 2025.
According to this projection, world CO 2 emissions
in 2025 would exceed 1990 levels by 72 %. Much
of the projected increase in carbon dioxide emissions
occurs among the emerging nations, accompanying
large increase in fossil fuel use. The economics
account for 68 percent of the projected increment
in carbon dioxide emissions between 2002 and 2025.
Combustion of petroleum products contributes 5,733
(Mmt) to the projected increase from 2001, coal
4,120 MmT and natural gas the remaining 3,374
Mmt. As a result, the absolute increment in CO 2
emissions from coal combustion is larger than the
increment in emissions from natural gas
combustion. CO 2 emissions from energy use in the
industrialized countries are expected to increase by
4,009 Mmt, to 15,643 Mmt in 2025, or by about
1.2% per year. Emissions from the combustion of
373
petroleum products account for about 42% of the
total increment expected for the industrialized world,
gas 33 %, and coal 24%.
3. Energy Consumption in India
Owing to population growth and economic
development, India’s energy consumption has been
increasing at one of the fastest rates in the world.
India, the world’s sixth largest energy consumer,
plans major energy infrastructure investments to
keep up with increasing demand-particularly for
electric power. India is the world’s third-largest
producer of coal, and relies on coal for more than
half of its total energy needs. India’s economic
growth is continuing its recovery from a slowdown
that took place in 2002, which was mainly
attributable to weak demand for manufactured
exports and the effects of a drought on agricultural
output. Real growth in the country’s gross domestic
product (GDP) was 4.0% for 2002, surging to 8.2%
in 2003 and a projected 6.4% for 2004 and 6.2% for
2005. Oil accounts for about 30% of India’s total
energy consumption. India’s average oil production
level (total liquids) for 2003 was 819,000 bbl/d, of
which 6, 60, 000 bbl/d was crude oil. India had net
oil imports of over 1.5 million bbl/d in 2004. Indian
consumption of natural gas has risen faster than any
other fuel in recent years. From only 0.6 Tcf per
year in 1995, natural gas use was nearly 0.9 Tcf in
2002 and is projected to reach 1.2 Tcf in 2010 and
1.6 Tcf in 2015. Coal is the dominant commercial
fuel in India, satisfying more than 70% India’s
energy demand. Power generation accounts for
about 70% of India’s coal consumption, followed
by heavy industry. Coal consumption is projected
in the International Energy Annual 2004 to increase
to 430 million short tons in 2010, up from 359 Mst
in 2000.
India is trying to expand electric power
generation capacity, as current generation is
seriously below peak demand. Although about 80%
of the population has access to electricity, power
outages are common, and the unreliability of
electricity supplies is severe enough to constitute a
constraint on the country’s overall economic
development. As of January 2004, total installed
Indian power generating capacity was 126,000 MW.
The country needs 9% of the annual growth in
electricity. This needs a huge economic investment