Accepted Papers - 3.pdf - UNESCO

slope due to atmosphere precipitation.
• In 1999 downfalls of Nurek’s HPS foundation
were formed that already during more than 25 years
testing rise of deformation. The reason is carts –
formation and washing out of salt layers by surface
and underground waters.
It can be mentioned that actually all these
accidents in some measure are connected with
climate phenomena clearer with their sharp
vibration. It proves that hydropower is vulnerable,
first of all not to stable changes of climate, but to its
occasional fluctuations.
In purpose of number estimation of hydro –
power vulnerability degree as the first very
approximates the following dependences can be
proposed:
• For estimation of vulnerability directly only
from climatic factors change:
V cl. = P n = 0,9999 10 = 0,999;
P – probability of hydropower construction (objects)
normal work in conditions of stable unchanged
climate with rated characteristics of climatic factors.
For our case P = 0,9999
1
1 − = 0,
9999
10000 ;
n – multiples increasing possibility of rising rated
parameters of climatic factors (as the stables so
occasional). We conditionally accept for our case n
= 10.
• For estimation of vulnerability directly only
from technical condition of
hydropower object (from degree of their way out):
V
tech
T 10
= 1 − = 1−
=
t
25
SERVICE
0,
6;
Where :
T – actual term of exploitation more vulnerable
elements of energy – system – technical equipment
without normative through repairs. In our case T =
10 years.
t service – normative term of technological equipment
service without thorough repairs. For HPS t service =
472
25 years.
• For estimation of energy – system vulnerability
connected with its functional
features, first of all with regimes of work:
W 14,
4 3
r−
s
km
V = = = 0,
23
W 61,
8
;
flow
3
km
Where:
W r-s – total volume of system regulating reservoirs.
W flow – average - annual volume of river flow,
forming on all water – gathering area of republic.
Meaning “V” – factor of vulnerability
nominated and changes for all there cases from 1 –
that corresponds non-practical vulnerability or
absolute degree of adaptation, up to O – that
corresponds absolute vulnerability or zero degree
of adaptation. Execution of estimation confirm made
earlier stated conclusions that hydropower
vulnerability of Tajikistan now is, determined by
its technical descriptions: by insufficient volume of
reservoirs and way out degree, that eguals 0,6 – this
is it approaches to state of neutrality degree (0,5),
when probability of normal work and accident are
equal.
In common case all objects of hydropower
subjected to influence of climatic changes can be
divided on two groups. These are resource base of
hydropower and objects of system itself, its
constructions.
The resource base of Tajikistan power industry,
as shown earlier, now end in really invisible
perspective is hydropower. Here it is necessary to
mention two moments.
First taking into account that now resources of
hydropower are used only not more than 5%, one
can be confident that at any possible changes of
climatic, hydropower will be always able to provide
any development strategy of republic, both in case
of orientation on own consumption and on export.
Second as shown above, not change of absolute
hydropower stocks, but if it is possible to express,
their quality, under which is understood, first of all,
vibration of hydrological parameters of river flow
– many years, seasonal occasional are the most
important for considered problem.
Object of power system itself are characterized
by their parameters and features, the mains of which