Accepted Papers - 3.pdf - UNESCO

change waterness charge o Vakhsh m 3 /sec
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rivers, but decreases flood expenses. The last is
explained by distribution of water – plenty change
and temperature on year, leading to their more
leveling on seasons. At the right time, such position
in mentioned in scenarios of climate change 1 – 4,
examined above.
In difference of atmosphere rainfall changes,
in relation to actual changes of temperature, any
district connection with hydrological parameters of
rivers is not possible to expose. It is connected with
thing that observed changes of temperature are not
very meaningful, their total range equal 0,36 0 C. But
it does not have particular meaning for us. Since
comments to climate change are for us hydrological
parameters of river flow so more suitable description
of climate change itself naturally is accepted change
of atmosphere precipitation quantity. Connections
between them, as shown above are revealed clear
enough.
We examine now what kind of influence could
have climate changes on hydropower.
It is necessary to mention that hydropower of
Tajikistan really in determined measure is
vulnerable in relation to climatic influences. It is
well show by examples of accidents, happened in
last decades. Of course, the main reason of these
accidents are the hard economical state of energy
system and connected with this large use up of its
channge of raining,mm/year
Fig. 7. Depend of change waterness charge o Vakhsh region from changing raining
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main founds, but a definite role played also climatic
factors. The lists of such common accidents are
given below:
• In 1993 the up – river building dam of Rogun’s
HPS on Vakhsh river 40 m
the main reason of accident was over – accounted
flood, horded by slides phenomena and mashes.
• In 1994 the Watergate construction of Vanj HPS
was fully destroyed which
was maid up of concrete water – overflow two bay
dam with segment water – gates. The reasons of
accident were high flood and wash – out of
foundation on tail water.
• Beginning from 1990 and up to now Aksu HPS
practically is in permanent
accidental state. All concrete construction of head
water – gate unit and head pool last stability.
Concrete revetment of derivative channel and
happen regular washing out of its sides. The main
reasons of accidents are hard winter climatic
condition, ice marshes and frost swelling of ground.
• In 1992 and in 2002 in result of mighty slides
of Baypazin’s HPS tail water the course of river
partially dammed and the building of HPS was
flooded. Station’s way out of operation was
succeeded to avoid only due to stripping of slides
by explosion including use of military aviation. The
reason of accident was water satiety of landslide