Accepted Papers - 3.pdf - UNESCO

– 1972, 1973 – 1982, and 1983 – 1988.
As comments to climate changes, determining
vulnerability of hydropower, as it was mentioned;
we accepted water – plenty of river flow and flood
expenses. Appropriate data are given in fig.4,5.
The analysis of flood expenses in the fig.5 is
made for Vakhsh river, since its relative water –
plenty and water – plenty of all reveres in average
on republic practically identify (fig. 4). The
explanation of this fact can be that Vakhsh river
flowing through all republic from one its border to
another crosses all climatic and high-rise zones.
It can be seen that in these diagrams as
characteristically also three periods are divided:
1964 – 1972, 1973 – 1982, and 1983 – 1988.
For further analysis on the Table 3 is given the
matrix of actual changes of climate and appropriate
comments to it in form of hydrological
characteristics of Vakhsh river. Comparing it with
matrix of climate change scenarios 1 – 4, it can be
mentioned that it covers significantly big range with
rainfall and essentially less with temperature. Thus
by all these essential varieties scenario 4 – model
Had CM2 and then scenario 3 are closer scenarios
for local vibration of climate in Tajikistan and its
fluctuation.
These statistics show that there are enough close
connection between change of river flow and flood
expenses from one side and change of atmosphere
rainfall quantity from another. They are given in
fig.6,7.
According to made analysis increasing of rainfall
quantity increases the common water – plenty of
Table 3 : Matrix of actual climate change and Vakhsh river water regime
Periods Climate change Water regime, m 3 /year
Temperature Precipitation Water full change, Spring floods
change, °C change, mm/year km 3 /year change, m 3 /s
1964-72 -0,2 14,4 0,71 49,7
1973-82 -0,01 -8,37 -0,35 129,2
1,0
1983-88 0,16 28,1 0,91 -38,6
change of waterness of Vakhsh km 3 years
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
Fig. 6. Dependence of waterness of Vakhsh River due to the rainfall
470
-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20
change of raining, mm/year