Accepted Papers - 3.pdf - UNESCO

consumption of oil on 11 times more, gas – about
four times, hydropower – more than 100 times. Two
and a half times the population number of republic
increased. Moreover approximately such growth of
all these statistics was observed also in region
around and in the world.
Now the rates of economics growth of Tajikistan
and Central Asia Region essentially have lowered.
Therefore from the point of view of technogen’s
influence on climate period of 1960 - 1990 is more
introductive.
Unfortunately, the reality foes not confer evenly
for Tajikistan presence of large influence of
technogen’s activity of people on climate. In the
fig.2,3 are given actual data on average – annual
meanings change of air temperature and atmosphere
Waterness, shares, unit
1,5
1,4
1,3
1,2
1,1
1
0,9
0,8
0,7
change of charg, m 3 /second.
1961
1000
800
600
400
200
1963
0
-200
-400
-600
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
years
Fig. 4 : Waterness of rivers of Tajikistan
precipitations.
It can be noted that in average for all considered
period these climatic statistics remained practically
unchangeable. It tells that it is necessary to refer
with big care to propose above scenarists of climate
changes evenly for period in several decades.
This conclusion belongs to the all period of
observation (1960 - 1990) in average. At the same
time in separate shorter periods such changes of
climate parameters (precipitations and temperature)
were felt more. They let us to evaluate influence of
climate change (not important by which reasons
happened) on hydrological parameters of river flow,
determining conditions of functioning hydropower.
In given on fig.2, 3 prophets three periods with stable
trends of parameters changes can be divided: 1964
1977
r. Vakhsh Average w aterliness on republic Polinominal (average w aterliness on republic)
-800
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Fig. 5 : Factual changes of climatic parameters of Tajikistan (averae of the period)
469
years
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989