Accepted Papers - 3.pdf - UNESCO

Tajikistan. It can be mentioned that sparseness of
parameters for various scenarios, especially on
relation to temperature is very large and doesn’t let
to make unambiguous valuation. As a matter of fact
these scenarios help too less on prognosis of climate
change, since preliminary choice some of them are
required without enough criteria for it. This
conclusion by the way, fully is affirmed by
Convention Framework of UNO on climate change
in 1992, in which are marked numerous indefinites
of climate change prognoses, particularly in relation
to their terms, scales and regional features.
In these conditions for valuation real possibilities
of climate changes connected with technogen’s
activity of people and the most essential their
influence on such hydrological characteristics of river
flow as common water – plenty and flood expenses
being the main factors determining vulnerability of
hydropower in relation to climate, we consider passed
yet period of 1960 – 1990. By the way such analysis
can help and also on choice of more suitable scenario
of climate change, considered in previous section.
This period is characterized by sharp, dynamic
development economics of Tajikistan, the main
statistics of which are given in table 2.
It is seen, that gross product of industry
increased in this period more then five times
Table 2. Common index of economy development of Republic of Tajikistan
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1989
Production of energy, mln. kWt’”h 125 143 314 459 1351 14746 13340
Production of oil, th. t 17 47 181 391 387 190
Production of gas, mln. m3 52 388 222 303 194
Production of coal, th. t 854 904 887 832 516 515
Population, th. man 2032 2468,8 2899,6 3391,8 3900,9 4499,3 5108,6
change of temperaure, o C
change of raining, mm
1,00
0,50
0,00
-0,50
-1,00
-1,50
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
yeas
Fig. 2. Factual change of temperature for the Republic of Tajikistan as a whole.
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
years
Fig. 3. Factual change of precipitation (from average meaning for period)
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